98th Academy Awards Predictions: December 17th Edition

This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.

We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordan in Sinners.

On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.

It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.

The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.

Let’s take a look at all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)

4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)

10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)

9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Boys Go to Jupiter

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)

5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

Orwell 2 + 2 = 5

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Blue Moon

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

28 Years Later

Weapons

Wolf Man

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)

8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Warfare

The Testament of Ann Lee

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Mickey 17

How to Train Your Dragon

And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Frankenstein, Sentimental Value

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent

3 Nominations

Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams

2 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters

1 Nomination

Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 23rd Edition

The five Best Picture winners from this decade have all seen at least one of their cast members win an acting Oscar: Frances McDormand was Best Actress for 2020’s Nomadland, Troy Kotsur took Supporting Actor for 2021’s CODA, 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once boasted victories in Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), and Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. were the lead and supporting actor winners for Oppenheimer in 2023, and Mikey Madison was last year’s Actress recipient for Anora.

That’s why it felt strange not having any of the thespians from One Battle for Another listed at #1 in my possibilities. I’ve had the acclaimed Paul Thomas Anderson effort on top of my Best Picture projections for several weeks. Yet I’ve had Leonardo DiCaprio (Best Actor), Sean Penn (Supporting Actor), and Teyana Taylor (Supporting Actress) each listed 2nd behind my current frontrunners in those races.

Excellent arguments can be made for all three to be 1st in their fields. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see at least two Battle ensemble members take gold. Today I am elevating one of them to the top position and that’s Teyana Taylor. She takes the spot with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) slipping to second. Frankly, this is less about Taylor and more about Wicked‘s so-so critical reaction when the embargo lifted on Monday.

I still have Wicked clinging to a BP nom and Cynthia Erivo managing an Actress nod – though I am less convinced that either will happen. You will see dips in other categories below and it appears unlikely to match the 10 nominations that its predecessor achieved. To be clear, Grande is still a threat to win. She was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) last time and there could be enough goodwill for the Good Witch to prevail.

In other developments, I am putting two performers in the supporting fields in for the first time! Amy Madigan’s costume inspiring Weapons work makes the quintet in Supporting Actress. This is partly due to confusion as to which Marty Supreme costar (Gwyneth Paltrow or Odessa A’Zion) is more viable. I basically have them canceling each other out to Madigan’s benefit.

Jacob Elordi’s monstrous performance in Frankenstein is also elevated with Battle‘s Benicio del Toro now on the outside looking in. I nearly dropped Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly) but I hesitate to drop him with his costar George Clooney still in my Actor five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (E)

13. Train Dreams (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)

9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (E)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 4) (E)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (E)

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 9) (E)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)

9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (E)

8. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (+1)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Boys Go to Jupiter (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Lost in Starlight (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ne Zha 2

Animal Farm

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Seeds (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dead President Now! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Tale of Silyan

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

9. Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wolf Man (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Weapons (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-2)

8. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 10) (+1)

10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (+1)

3. F1 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Warfare (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mickey 17 (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

12 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sinners

11 Nominations

Hamnet

8 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good

7 Nominations

Frankenstein

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, The Testament of Ann Lee, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Weapons, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: November 16th Edition

My first update in two weeks showcases stability in the major races as there’s no changes in Picture, Director, or the four acting races. However, within the categories, there is movement worth noting. Frankenstein is now up to 7th and, for the first time, I would be surprised if it’s not nominated.

The only significant movie not yet seen is Avatar: Fire and Ash. As we await screening word-of-mouth, I still have it in the BP ten at ninth. If it does not end up making the cut (unlike its two predecessors), keep an eye on The Secret Agent. I have it rising to its highest perch in 12th with lead Wagner Moura now third for Best Actor.

On the eve of its Friday premiere, Wicked: For Good slips from 6th to 8th in BP while Ariana Grande continues to top the Supporting Actress rankings. The actual review embargo lifts tomorrow and that could shift Wicked‘s placement in numerous competitions.

You can read all the movement below, including my projection that Netflix’s Train Dreams is on track for an Adapted Screenplay nod (taking out Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery).

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)

6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Bugonia (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Secret Agent (PR: 14) (+2)

13. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)

8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 10) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Blue Moon (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Scarlet (PR: 7) (+1)

7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cover-Up (PR: 3) (E)

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Seeds (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Tale of Silyan (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cutting Through Rocks

The Eyes of Ghana

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A House of Dynamite

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (+1)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Hedda (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Snow White (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)

7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-3)

9. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Bugonia (PR: 10) (E)

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)

3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sentimental Value

A House of Dynamite

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Blue Moon

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. F1 (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)

8. Warfare (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Mickey 17 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 10) (E)

That means I have these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

One Battle After Another

12 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

Marty Supreme

7 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams

1 Nomination

28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: September 13th Edition

My goodness… where to begin? Since my last predictions post on August 24th, the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone. Toronto wraps up tomorrow.

Since that time, my individual posts have showcased numerous pictures screening at those festivals and their awards viability. There are plenty of headlines, but the biggest in my estimation comes from outside those venues.

That would be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens in less than two weeks. It eschewed the festival circuit. However, early screenings have occurred and they suggest Battle could be a force on the circuit. It vaults from 11th all the way to 1st in my BP rankings while doing the same in Director and Adapted Screenplay. Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn join the supporting fields for their work (though Leonardo DiCaprio is not in my lead Actor quintet).

As for other major developments (many resulting from those aforementioned viewings in Colorado, Italy and Canada):

Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet is the other massive gainer. It enters BP, Director and Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal) while Jessie Buckley is now #1 in lead Actress.

The additions of Battle and Hamnet in BP knock out Rental Family and After the Hunt (the mixed to negative reaction for that movie caused it drop everywhere).

Paul Thomas Anderson and Chloé Zhao entering the Director derby means Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) are outsiders looking in.

Emma Stone (Bugonia) is in the Best Actress quintet with Julia Roberts (After the Hunt) out.

Somehow Best Actor stays the same, but I struggled because I strongly considered the top 11 for slots in the top five.

Major changes in Supporting Actress with Battle‘s Teyana Taylor, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) and Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) replacing Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme), Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) and Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt).

Hamnet‘s Paul Mescal and Battle’s Sean Penn cause Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) and Akira Emoto (Rental Family) to fall from Supporting Actor.

Netflix’s juggernaut KPop Demon Hunters is now #1 in Animated Feature.

You can read the (considerable) movement below and my next update will be up within the next two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 11) (+10)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Hamnet (PR: 13) (+9)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Rental Family (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (E)

13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (+3)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (+2)

16. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (-2)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

20. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Anemone (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

23. After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-16)

24. Weapons (PR: 25) (+1)

25. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Smashing Machine

Ballad of a Small Player

La Grazia

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+7)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (+8)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Kaother Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Hikari, Rental Family

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+4)

2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-5)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (-1)

13. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (would be supporting if nominated)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)

3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (E)

11. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 13) (+10)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-3)

7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (-5)

11. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Wumni Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-11)

15. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Laura Dern, Jay Kelly

Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 3) (-4)

8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: 14) (E)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

11. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+4)

12. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 14) (+2)

13. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-4)

14. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-8)

15. Father Mother Sister Brother (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Is This Thing On? (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

The Rivals of Amziah King

Anemone

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 1) (-1)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay

10. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-3)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

14. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ballad of a Small Player

The Wizard of the Kremlin

Late Fame

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: Not Ranked)

4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Sirât (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Love That Remains (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

La Grazia

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Arco (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Elio (PR: 5) (+1)

5. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (+3)

7. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Scarlet (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Cover-Up (PR: Not Ranked)

5. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Seeds (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Below the Clouds (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

Deaf President Now!

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-3)

9. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Snow White (PR: 10) (+1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Couture

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+7)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-3)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)

9. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wolf Man (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Christy

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+4)

3. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+5)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+2)

8. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 6) (-2)

9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (-1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Bugonia

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)

5. Warfare (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-1)

7. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-1)

10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Warfare (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (E)

9. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-3)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

How to Train Your Dragon

That equates to these generating these numbers of nominatons:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Winner: For Good

10 Nominations

Hamnet

9 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Bugonia

4 Nominations

Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident

3 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Elio, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Eyes of Ghana, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Warfare, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 24th Edition

We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.

Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.

On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.

Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:

The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.

You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)

10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)

18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)

19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)

22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)

24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Life of Chuck

Nouvelle Vague

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)

14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)

15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)

14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)

13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)

13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)

15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)

7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)

10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All That’s Left of You

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)

5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)

5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Come See Me in the Good Light

Architection

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

After the Hunt

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)

10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Wolf Man

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Testament of Ann Lee

Sentimental Value

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)

9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless

TBD from Zootopia 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)

10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)

5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mickey 17

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

10 Nominations

Marty Supreme

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

6 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly

5 Nominations

Frankenstein, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash

3 Nominations

Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: August 10th Edition

My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.

Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)

9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)

14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)

16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)

17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)

18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)

19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)

20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)

21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)

22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)

23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)

24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)

25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Die, My Love

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)

13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amy Adams, At the Sea

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)

15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)

12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)

13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)

15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ella McKay

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)

5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)

14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)

9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)

3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)

9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)

10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Timestamp

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)

5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Wicked: For Good

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Snow White

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)

7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wicked: For Good

Frankenstein

A House of Dynamite

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)

9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Superman

Mother Mary

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)

5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)

10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)

9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)

7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

11 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

8 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme

6 Nominations

Frankenstein, Jay Kelly

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family

3 Nominations

It Was Just an Accident

2 Nominations

Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2

98th Academy Awards Predictions: July 27th Edition

Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.

There are changes to discuss:

In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)

4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)

9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)

12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)

15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)

16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)

17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)

18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)

19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)

20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)

21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)

22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)

24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)

25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)

3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)

15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)

4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)

7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)

12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)

13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)

2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)

4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)

8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)

4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)

5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)

8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)

9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Regina Hall, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)

7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)

13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)

14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)

14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Nouvelle Vague

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)

2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)

3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)

7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)

12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)

13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Highest 2 Lowest

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)

2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)

3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)

5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)

7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)

3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)

4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)

10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)

2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)

3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)

5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)

8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Alabama Solution

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)

Other Possibilities:

6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)

7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)

8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)

10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)

5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)

8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)

9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)

10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)

2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Marty Supreme

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)

4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)

9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)

3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)

4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)

5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)

7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)

8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)

9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Mother Mary

“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)

2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)

3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

The Phoenician Scheme

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)

10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)

2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)

5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)

9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)

And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

Sinners

10 Nominations

Wicked: For Good

9 Nominations

Sentimental Value

7 Nominations

Bugonia, Frankenstein

6 Nominations

After the Hunt

5 Nominations

Marty Supreme, Rental Family

4 Nominations

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly

3 Nominations

One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

2 Nominations

F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

1 Nomination

2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2

Oscar Predictions: Come See Me in the Good Light

Come See Me in the Good Light premiered at Sundance back in January with Apple TV picking up distribution rights in the spring (a release date is yet TBD). Directed by Ryan White (best known for Good Night Oppy), Light focuses on the relationship between poets Andrea Gibson and Megan Falley after the former’s terminal cancer diagnosis. Gibson was in Park City for the unveiling of the documentary, but passed away two weeks ago.

Critical reaction has yielded 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Sara Beirelles is an executive producer and she sings the track “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet”. It is cowritten by Brandi Carlile (another exec producer). Tig Notaro is another well-known artist on the production team. I would anticipate Apple and the well-known contributors to mount campaigns in Documentary Feature and Original Song. The amount of exposure this receives should determine its success in both categories. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

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