Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: October 12th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:

I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.

Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.

Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.

Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)

Other Possibilities:

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

12. Detroit (PR: 13)

13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)

14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)

15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)

17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)

18. Downsizing (PR: 18)

19. Get Out (PR: 16)

20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)

21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)

22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)

23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)

24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)

25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Goodbye Christopher Robin

Molly’s Game

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)

3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)

8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)

12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)

13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)

15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)

8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)

9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)

10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)

11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)

12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)

13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)

14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)

11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)

12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)

13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)

14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Jennifer Lawrence, mother!

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)

9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)

10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)

12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)

14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)

8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)

10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)

11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)

12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)

13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)

15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin

Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)

2. Mudbound (PR: 3)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)

4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)

8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)

10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)

11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)

12. Stronger (PR: 13)

13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)

15. Wonder (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)

8. Get Out (PR: 6)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)

12. Downsizing (PR: 12)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

14. Wind River (PR: 14)

15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…

Oscar Watch: Roman J. Israel, Esq.

The reaction to the film itself was mixed, but Denzel Washington has increased his chances for an eighth Oscar nomination for Roman J. Israel, Esq. The legal drama is director Dan Gilroy’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2014 pic Nightcrawler (which is one of my favorite movies of the last few years). Colin Farrell and Carmen Ejogo costar.

As mentioned, reviews from its Toronto Film Festival screening have not all been positive (it’s at 71% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). Yet critics have singled out Denzel’s work here. His inclusion in Best Actor might be its only chance at Academy recognition. Gilroy could land an Original Screenplay nod (as he did for Nightcrawler), but that race is already looking busy.

Mr. Washington has won twice – for Supporting Actor in 1989’s Glory and lead in 2001’s Training Day. Just last year, he probably came very close to getting his third for Fences (he lost to Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea).

In my intital round of predictions last Thursday, I had the performer playing the title character here ranked 15th. He’ll be ranked higher in the second round on Thursday.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

The Beguiled Box Office Prediction

After a sizzling start in limited release over the weekend, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expands its theater count Friday to approximately 550 screens. The Civil War era dramatic thriller has been garnering buzz ever since it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival and bestowed its Best Director award for Coppola. Colin Farrell, Nicole Kidman, Kirsten Dunst, and Elle Fanning headline the loose remake of the 1971 Clint Eastwood effort.

Reviews have mostly been strong and it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. There is some Oscar nod potential for its director, Kidman in Actress, and Kirsten Dunst for Supporting Actress. It played in just four theaters over the weekend and amassed an impressive $240,000 from those showings.

If The Beguiled can average close to $7,000 per screen in its expanded release, that would give it just under $4 million for the frame ahead.

The Beguiled opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million

For my Despicable Me 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/despicable-me-3-box-office-prediction/

For my The House prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/the-house-box-office-prediction/

For my Baby Driver prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/21/baby-driver-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Beguiled

Sofia Coppola burst onto the film scene with two highly regarded directorial efforts – 1999’s The Virgin Suicides and 2003’s Lost in Translation. The latter scored multiple Oscar nods, including Picture. Since then, Coppola has been off the awards radar screen for the most part (2006’s Marie Antoinette did win Best Costume Design).

Yet Coppola’s name came up over the weekend as her latest, The Beguiled, won her the Best Director prize at the Cannes Film Festival. The period piece drama/thriller is actually based on a novel that served as source material for a 1971 Clint Eastwood flick. Colin Farrell, Nicole Kidman, Kirsten Dunst, and Elle Fanning headline.

The Beguiled hits stateside screens on June 23rd and reaction from the French fest was positive. It stands at a decent 76% on Rotten Tomatoes. If it manages to over perform at the box office, perhaps there could some chatter for Coppola getting Academy attention, though it’s doubtful. One wild card could perhaps be Kidman, who seems to garnering some raves for her performance. And who knows? Perhaps a Costume Desjgn nod.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

2016 Golden Globes: Who Will Win?

This Sunday evening, the Golden Globes (perhaps the most significant Oscar precursor) airs with Jimmy Fallon hosting. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Globes divide both Picture and the Lead Acting races in two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy.

Here’s how I have each race playing out with the winners predicted. As a side note, I decided to not do my weekly Oscar predictions yesterday and will have an updated post on Thursday next week!

With that, let’s get to the races…

Best Drama

The Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight

Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight

Analysis: Not an easy prediction as this will probably boil down to Moonlight and Manchester, with both Hacksaw and Lion being potential spoilers (Water is only pic I see as having no shot). The winner of this category will likely vault into a two-way race with La La Land as to what comes out on top at Oscar time.

Best Musical/Comedy

The Nominees: 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street

Todd’s Prediction: La La Land

Analysis: It would be pretty shocking if Damien Chazelle’s ode to Hollywood musicals didn’t win here. I suppose perhaps Jenkins has a dark horse shot, but this is the easiest pick of the bunch to make.

Best Director

The Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Longergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Todd’s Prediction: Damien Chazelle

Analysis: Jenkins has racked up a slew of precursors and a win for Gibson would be seen as completing a remarkable comeback after multiple personal issues. However, at the end of the day, I believe the La La love will extend to its director.

Best Actor (Drama)

The Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences).

Todd’s Prediction: Casey Affleck

Analysis: Like the Oscar race, this looks to be between Affleck and Washington. I’ll give the former the slight edge as he’s won more precursors and Manchester itself was nominated for Picture, whereas Fences was not.

Best Actress (Drama)

The Nominees: Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie)

Todd’s Prediction: Natalie Portman

Analysis: While I wouldn’t totally rule out an Adams or Huppert win, Portman has the edge in her acclaimed role of Mrs. Kennedy.

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

The Nominees: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)

Todd’s Prediction: Hugh Grant

Analysis: Conventional wisdom would point to a Gosling win, but I believe the Hollywood Foreign Press will provide a bit of an upset here and honor Grant. Also – don’t be too shocked if Reynolds manages to surprise.

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

The Nominees: Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Todd’s Prediction: Emma Stone

Analysis: Bening and Streep are long shots, but it would be a rather large upset if Stone didn’t emerge victorious here.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel (Lion), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)

Todd’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali

Analysis: Bridges or Patel are feasible, but Ali has received the bulk of precursor awards and I believe that will continue here.

Best Supporing Actress

The Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Todd’s Prediction: Viola Davis

Analysis: Davis is the clear front runner here and at the Oscars. An upset win (possible for any of these actresses other than Spencer) could dispel that notion, but it probably won’t occur.

Best Screenplay

The Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals

Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight

Analysis: La La and Manchester are in the mix here, but this is probably where Barry Jenkins will get his win and not for direction.

Best Original Score

The Nominees: Arrival, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight

Todd’s Prediction: La La Land

Analysis: Tough one and it’s not out of the question to envision any of them winning. I’ll just go La La and see what happens.

Best Original Song

The Nominees: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls, “City of Stars” from La La Land, “Faith” from Sing, “Gold” from Gold, “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

Todd’s Prediction: “City of Stars”

Analysis: There’s some real heavy hitters here: Justin Timberlake, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Stevie Wonder with nominations. Yet I think the HFPA honors La La once again.

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia

Todd’s Prediction: Zootopia

Analysis: Kubo has a shot and you can never dismiss Disney with Moana. However, there’s another acclaimed Mouse Factory title in the mix and I believe Zootopia gets in.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees: Divines, Elle, Neruda, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann

Todd’s Prediction: Toni Erdmann

Analysis: Elle could absolutely win here (and perhaps The Salesman), but I’ll go with Academy favorite Erdmann.

And that does it, folks! I’ll have a post up Sunday night letting you know how well (or poorly) I did. Until then…

2016 Golden Globe Nominations Reaction

Well, the Golden Globe nominations are out and there are some genuine surprises to be had.

Not surprising? Damien Chazelle’s La La Land (the current front runner in the Oscar Best Picture derby) leading all nominees with seven with Barry Jenkins’s Moonlight close behind with six.

Surprising? A total shut-out for Martin Scorsese’s Silence and a better than expected showing for Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.

All in all, my performance guessing the nominees was pretty weak. 64% total in the ten major categories predicted.

Let’s break them down one by one, shall we?

Best Picture (Drama)

My Performance 2/5

Analysis: Ouch. This race threw me for a loop as only Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight were nominated among my five. The three that weren’t: the aforementioned Silence, Arrival, and Fences. In their place: Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge, Garth Davis’s Lion, and David Mackenzie’s Hell or High Water. Truthfully, none of their inclusions are entirely surprising. Having said that, if I thought I’d get three picks wrong, I probably would have thought Pablo Larrain’s Jackie would get in. This race now appears to be between Manchester and Moonlight.

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

Well… a little better. The three I correctly predicted were La La Land, Florence Foster Jenkins, and 20th Century Women. Warren Beatty’s Rules Don’t Apply and The Lobster didn’t make it in in favor of Deadpool (!) and Sing Street. Bottom line here? La La is going to win this category.

Best Director

My Performance: 3/5

Chazelle, Jenkins, and Lonergan were got in as I said they would, but Martin Scorsese and Denis Villeneuve (Arrival) did not. In their place are Mel Gibson for Hacksaw and the rather surprising inclusion of Tom Ford for Nocturnal Animals, especially considering the movie wasn’t nominated in Drama.

Best Actor (Drama)

My Performance: 4/5

The only incorrect estimate here is that Viggo Mortensen got in for Captain Fantastic instead of Tom Hanks for Sully. Ironically, I did predict Viggo would be nominated in Musical/Comedy here (I thought Fantastic would fall under that genre). The other nominees that I did get: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), and Denzel Washington (Fences).

Best Actress (Drama)

My Performance: 5/5

Hey, the one and only race where I went 100%! The nominees: Amy Adams (Arrival), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), and Natalie Portman (Jackie).

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

To me, the surprise is that the Hollywood Foreign Press didn’t nominate the legendary Warren Beatty for Rules Don’t Apply. As mentioned before, I put Mortensen in here, but he ended up getting nominated for Drama. The three I got right: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), and Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins). The two I didn’t: the pretty shocking nod for Jonah Hill in War Dogs and much deserved love for Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool.

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

My Performance: 3/5

Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins) were all very easy picks to make and they got in. The other two were tougher. I went with Kate Beckinsale in Love & Friendship and Susan Sarandon in The Meddler, but it was Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply) and Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen) who made the cut.

Best Supporting Actor

My Performance: 2/5

Ouch again. When it comes to Oscar predictin’, this has been the most unpredictable category of them all and that showed with my GG’s performance here. I correctly named Mahershala Ali (Moonlight) and Dev Patel in Lion. My picks of Lucas Hedges (Manchester), Issey Ogata (the totally ignored Silence), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals) didn’t come to fruition. Instead, we got the surprise nod for Shannon’s Nocturnal costar Aaron Taylor-Johnson along with Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water) and Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins).

Best Supporting Actress

My Performance: 4/5

Correct picks were Viola Davis in Fences, Naomie Harris for Moonlight, Nicole Kidman in Lion, and Michelle Williams for Manchester. It was Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures that I didn’t get (I said Greta Gerwig in 20th Century Women instead). Spencer’s inclusion is a small surprise, as some of the Oscar chatter has had Janelle Monae more likely to get in for Figures than her costar.

Best Screenplay

My Performance: 3/5

La La Land, Manchester, and Moonlight are in as predicted. No love for Arrival and Silence. In their place? Hell or High Water and Nocturnal Animals.

And there you have it! I’ll have a post up with final predictions on the winners shortly before Jimmy Fallon hosts the proceedings in January…

2016 Golden Globe Predictions

The most visible Oscar precursor is unveiled tomorrow when the Golden Globe nominations come out. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association divides its Picture and lead acting races into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. Additionally, it doesn’t split the screenplay race into Adapted and Original like the Oscars do.

Tonight on the blog, I am giving you my estimates for what and who will be nominated at the Globes, along with picking an alternate and a potential surprise in these races.

Let’s get to it!

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Arrival

Fences

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Alternate: Jackie

Potential Surprise: Fences not getting a nod, allowing Jackie or Lion or Hacksaw Ridge to get in.

BEST PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Florence Foster Jenkins

La La Land

The Lobster

Rules Don’t Apply

20th Century Women

Alternate: Hail, Caesar!

Potential Surprise: Captain Fantastic managing to get recognized.

BEST DIRECTOR

Predicted Nominees

Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Martin Scorsese, Silence

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Alternate: Denzel Washington, Fences

Potential Surprise: Pablo Larrain getting a nod for Jackie.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Tom Hanks, Sully

Denzel Washington, Fences

Alternate: Andrew Garfield, Silence – will be interesting to see which pic he’s nominated for.

Potential Surprise: Michael Keaton landing a nom for The Founder, which could significantly boost his Oscar talk.

BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Alternate: Adam Driver, Paterson

Potential Surprise: Grant not being nominated, which would essentially kill his slimming chances for a Supporting Actor Oscar nod.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Predicted Nominees

Amy Adams, Arrival

Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Alternate: Rachel Weisz, Denial

Potential Surprise: Hearing Rebecca Hall’s name called for the little seen Christine.

BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)

Predicted Nominees

Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Susan Sarandon, The Meddler

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Alternate: Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Potential Surprise: Hailee Steinfeld sneaking in for the critically lauded The Edge of Seventeen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Predicted Nominees

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Issey Ogata, Silence

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Alternate: Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Potential Surprise: There could be a lot in this race, but let’s go with Aaron Eckhart getting recognized for Sully or Bleed for This.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Predicted Nominees

Viola Davis, Fences

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Alternate: Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Potential Surprise: Molly Shannon’s small indie work in Other People making the cut.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Predicted Nominees

Arrival

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Silence

Alternate: Fences

Potential Surprise: Well, predicting Fences gets left off is a bit of a surprise, so let’s go with that.

I’ll have a post up tomorrow recounting how I did with these predictions. Until then…

Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them Box Office Prediction

The wildly popular fantasy world created by J.K. Rowling is back in theaters for the first time in five years as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them debuts next weekend. Based on a novel by the Harry Potter author, Beasts looks to create a new franchise for Warner Bros after that aforementioned wizard yielded the studio $2.3 billion dollars for the previous one. David Yates directs and he knows this universe well after making the last four Potter installments. Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne stars with a supporting cast that includes Katherine Waterston, Dan Fogler, Colin Farrell, Carmen Ejogo, Samantha Morton, Ezra Miller, Ron Perlman, and Jon Voight.

The reported $225 million production is intended as the first in a five-part series and it’s safe to say there’s a lot riding on this one. Seven of the eight Potter pics reside in the top 100 domestic earners of all time and even the lowest grossing one (Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban) made just under $250M.

So where does this first entry in a budding new franchise land? I don’t believe it’ll quite reach the $90 million that first Potter experience The Sorcerer’s Stone opened at 15 years ago. That said, a gross in low to mid $80s range out of the gate seems quite probable. I’ll predict it’ll do just that and we can expect to see plenty more wizards and muggles coming our way in the near future.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opening weekend prediction: $83.1 million

For my Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/billy-lynns-long-halftime-walk-box-office-prediction/

For my Bleed for This prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/10/bleed-for-this-box-office-prediction/

For my The Edge of Seventeen prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/11/09/the-edge-of-seventeen-box-office-prediction/

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actor

Day #4 of my first 2016 Oscar predictions brings us to Best Actor and in the past two years, even these incredibly early predictions yielded positive results. My 2014 late August/early September Actor predictions gave us four of the five nominees and in 2015 – three.

We start with Michael Keaton. He just missed out on a win in 2014 for Birdman and has had the distinction of appearing in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). It’s likely he’ll receive buzz for this December’s The Founder, in which he plays Ray Kroc – inventor of the McDonald’s franchise.

Denzel Washington both stars and directs in Fences, based on an acclaimed play. It’s been 15 years since he won for Training Day and it could be time to hear his name called again.

Casey Affleck has received raves for Manchester by the Sea. Same goes for Joel Edgerton in Jeff Nichols’ Loving. Readers of the previous posts in the Supporting races know that Moonlight looks to make some noise this season and that could extend to its star Trevante Rhodes.

Same goes for La La Land, which could mean a second nomination (ten years after Half Nelson) for Ryan Gosling. There’s Joe Alwyn in the title role of Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, the latest from double Oscar winner Ang Lee. Woody Harrelson plays the 36th President in LBJ. Double Oscar winner Tom Hanks is Sully. And so on and so on (I’ve even listed Ryan Reynolds in Deadpool as a possibility… even though it’s extremely unlikely).

This finally brings us to Nate Parker, director, writer, and star of The Birth of a Nation, which received raves on the festival circuit earlier this year. It is impossible to know right now how his recent publicity due to a years old rape charge (in which he acquitted) and the suicide of the alleged victim plays out in the minds of voters. For now, I do not have him being nominated. Whether that’s because of the serious competition or other reasons is a factor that is sure to be discussed as the nominations draw closer.

Here’s how I have this initial round shaking out:

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Joel Edgerton, Loving

Michael Keaton, The Founder

Denzel Washington, Fences

Other Possibilities:

Ben Affleck, Live by Night

Bryan Cranston, Wakefield

Colin Farrell, The Lobster

Andrew Garfield, Silence

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals

Tom Hanks, Sully

Woody Harrelson, LBJ

Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake

Joseph Gordon Levitt, Snowden

Matthew McConaughey, Gold

David Oyelowo, A United Kingdom

Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation

Dev Patel, Lion

Brad Pitt, Allied

Chris Pratt, Passengers

Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight

Michael Shannon, Midnight Special

Will Smith, Collateral Beauty

Miles Teller, Bleed for This

We’ll hit Best Director tomorrow and then Best Picture!

Winter’s Tale Box Office Prediction

This weekend’s romantic drama Winter’s Tale is the sole picture of the quartet coming out over President’s Day that isn’t based on a 1980s flick. It is based on a novel from Mark Helprin that came out in the 80s though. The period piece’s cast includes Colin Farrell, Jennifer Connelly, and Russell Crowe and comes from Akiva Goldsman, making his feature directorial debut. He’s well-known in Hollywood for his screenplays and they include A Time to Kill, A Beautiful Mind, Cinderella Man, and The Da Vinci Code.

Warner Bros. is definitely hoping the pic’s Valentine’s Day release date brings in couples. And I’ll predict that the release date will certainly help. Anything over $20 million would be considered quite a feat and it wouldn’t shock me if it got there (it has a smallish $46M budget). However, with direct competition from both About Last Night and Endless Love, I believe a more likely scenario is a debut in the high teens.

Winter’s Tale opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million (Friday to Monday)