Oscar Predictions: The Rivals of Amziah King

The Rivals of Amziah King was praised as a multi-genre crowdpleaser when it screened at Sundance earlier this year. From director Andrew Patterson (best known for 2019’s The Vast of Night), the southern set crime drama marks Matthew McConaughey’s first starring role in six years with a supporting cast including Kurt Russell, Cole Sprouse, Owen Teague, Scott Shepherd, Rob Morgan, and Tony Revolori. Playing McConaughey’s foster daughter, newcomer Angelina LookingGlass is drawing early raves.

The reaction from Park City in January has me thinking Rivals is a possibility for numerous awards. That includes McConaughey in Actor. His sole Oscar nod for 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club resulted in a victory and this could mark his second attempt. LookingGlass could contend in Supporting Actress as could Patterson’s direction and original screenplay. If it can score mentions in those categories, BP is also on the table. When I did my inaugural ranked predictions a week ago, Rivals was slotted 6th in Picture, Patterson was fourth in Director, McConaughey landed 2nd in Actor, and LookingGlass was 3rd in Supporting Actress. Down-the-line races like Cinematography and Editing are also in the mix.

King has yet to be dated for release, but I’m assuming an autumn rollout with possible spots at other fests like Telluride and/or Toronto. Its distributor will need to mount a robust campaign. Based on its buzz, I’m assuming they will and that Rivals is a title to watch out for throughout the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Lisa Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

Lisa Frankenstein hopes to bring the box office to life when it opens February 9th. The horror comedy marks the directorial debut of Zelda Williams with a script from Juno and Jennifer’s Body scribe Diablo Coby. Kathryn Newton and Cole Sprouse headline with a supporting cast including Liza Soberano, Henry Eikenberry, Joe Chrest, and Carla Gugino.

The Focus Features production seeks out teens and horror fans, but could have trouble finding them. While the marketplace is starved for product at the moment, I don’t expect this to break the financial spell.

With a reported budget of only $13.5 million, Lisa should still manage about half of that figure for its start. I’m skeptical that it hits double digits out of the gate.

Lisa Frankenstein opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million

Five Feet Apart Box Office Prediction

Youthful romance is center stage in the drama Five Feet Apart this Friday. Justin Baldoni directs Haley Lu Richardson (best known for Split) as a cystic fibrosis patient who catches the eye of Cole Sprouse (currently on TV’s “Riverdale”) with the same condition. Costars include Moises Arias, Parminder Nagra, and Claire Forlani.

The film is based on a novel by Rachael Lippincott. It came out in November of last year and the rights to its adaptation were sold well before its release. CBS Films is hoping this appeals to fans of The Fault in Our Stars. I believe the opening grosses of them will be many millions apart.

I’ll project this manages to reach double digits, though not by much.

Five Feet Apart opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million

For my Wonder Park prediction, click here:

Wonder Park Box Office Prediction

For my Captive State prediction, click here:

Captive State Box Office Prediction