Tag: Cold War

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 27th Edition

It’s my final Oscar predictions of 2018 as the nominations draw closer (with the Golden Globes airing next Sunday)! And, yes, we’re seeing some changes:

  • First Man is back in my predicted nine with Mary Poppins Returns out. Bohemian Rhapsody continues to rise and is inching closer to possible inclusion.
  • In Best Director, Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) is in with Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) out.
  • In Best Actress, Yalitza Aparicio returns to my top 5 with Emily Blunt’s title role in Mary Poppins Returns falling.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 11)

11. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

13. A Quiet Place (PR: 14)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

15. First Reformed (PR: 15)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 3)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 9)

8. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ben Foster, Leave No Trace

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 8)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

9. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 10)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 9)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 8)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 10)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

7. First Man (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

5. First Reformed (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 8)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Sorry to Bother You

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 5)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Guilty (PR: 8)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

8. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

9. Ayka (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

4. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 6)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 7)

8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 8)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 2)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

4. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

5. RBG (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

7. Shirkers (PR: 8)

8. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

9. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: 10)

10. Dark Money (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Roma (PR: 1)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 6)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Green Book (PR: 10)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

10. Widows (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cold War (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 5)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 9)

7. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. Colette (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Border (PR: 5)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

3. Black Panther (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 4)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

7. Ready Player One (PR: 5)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 8)

10. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 4)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. First Man (PR: 2)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

7. Welcome to Marwen (PR: 8)

8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: 9)

9. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 7)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: 10)

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 6)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: 5)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

8. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

10. “OYAHTT” from Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet 

And that adds up to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born, Black Panther

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man, Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Mary Poppins Returns

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, Mary Queen of Scots, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Cold War, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Ready Player One, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 20th Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions are here again and there’s been some developments to discuss:

  • Earlier this week, a number of categories released their shortlists: Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Original Score, Original Song. As you’ll see, those picks reflect the new landscape for those races.
  • I’m going back to picking nine Best Picture selections and that means that First Man is out for the first time.
  • Black Panther is a predicted nominee in Adapted Screenplay, making its inaugural appearance. It replaces Crazy Rich Asians.
  • In Original Screenplay, Eighth Grade is back in over Vice.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Green Book (PR: 4)

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

8. Vice (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. First Man (PR: 10)

11. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 14)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)

14. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

15. First Reformed (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

Crazy Rich Asians

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

9. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

10. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparacio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: 9)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 10)

10. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 8)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

9. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 8)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

8. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Natalie Portman, Vox Lux

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 8)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Widows (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 10)

10. Sorry to Bother You (PR: 8)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 5)

5. Burning (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

7. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

8. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Ayka (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Girl

Border

I Am Not a Witch

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 7)

7. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

8. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 9)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 8)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Free Solo (PR: 4)

3. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 3)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 9)

8. Shirkers (PR: 8)

9. Dark Money (PR: 7)

10. Of Fathers and Sons (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Science Fair

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. First Man (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk 

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. Cold War (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Vice

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 8)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

9. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Colette (PR: 6)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Vice (PR: 3)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

4. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

5. Border (PR: Not Ranked)

6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

7. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

Colette

A Star Is Born

Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

4. Roma (PR: 5)

5. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: 4)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 5)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Welcome to Marwen (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Christopher Robin (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Incredibles 2

Aquaman

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

A Quiet Place

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. BlackKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Isle of Dogs (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 7)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Incredibles 2

Colette

Suspiria 

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

9. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 8)

10. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex

And that gives these pictures the following number of nominations:

10 Nominations

A Star Is Born, The Favourite

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

First Man, Mary Poppins Returns

7 Nominations

Roma

6 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

5 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

4 Nominations

Green Book, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, Cold War, First Reformed, Isle of Dogs, Ready Player One, RBG

1 Nomination

Avengers: Infinity War, Beautiful Boy, Bohemian Rhapsody, Burning, Capernaum, Dumplin, Eighth Grade, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Free Solo, Incredibles 2, Minding the Gap, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Shoplifters, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Three Identical Strangers, The Wife, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 14th Edition

A day late, but my weekly Oscar predictions are up for your review! Enjoy…

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

7. Black Panther (PR: 8)

8. Vice (PR: 7)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 13)

13. First Reformed (PR: 12)

14. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 10)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 6)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 7)

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 8)

8. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Rosamund Pike, A Private War

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

3. Sam Ellliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

8. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

10. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marina De Tavira, Roma

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. First Man (PR: 5)

8. Leave No Trace (PR: 9)

9. The Hate U Give (PR: 10)

10. Widows (PR: 7)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Green Book (PR: 3)

3. Roma (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 4)

5. First Reformed (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Eighth Grade (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

8. Sorry to Bother You (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Private Life (PR: 7)

10. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Ben Is Back

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Burning (PR: 6)

5. Capernaum (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 7)

7. Girl (PR: 5)

8. Border (PR: 8)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: 10)

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 2)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 3)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

7. Early Man (PR: 8)

8. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

9. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)

10. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. RBG (PR: 4)

4. Free Solo (PR: 3)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Dark Money (PR: 7)

8. Shirkers (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 8)

10. Science Fair (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Quincy

Best Film Editing

1. Roma (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Green Book (PR: 9)

7. Black Panther (PR: 5)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 8)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 7)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 3)

3. The Favourite (PR: 4)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Vice (PR: 10)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 6)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 3)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. Roma (PR: 5)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 10)

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 5)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bohemian Rhapsody 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling 

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Deadpool 2

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 5)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 9)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 9)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 6)

8. Aquaman (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Ant-Man and the Wasp

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 10)

7. Black Panther (PR: 9)

8. Isle of Dogs (PR: 6)

9. Colette (PR: 7)

10. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

5. “Girl at the Movies” from Dumplin (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 7)

8. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

10. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born 

And that equates to the following films getting these numbers for nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

8 Nominations

Black Panther, First Man

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Burning, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, RBG, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’

 

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 6th Edition

We’ve had Golden Globe nominations this morning and AFI’s top ten list on Tuesday, but my top 10 Best Picture picks for Oscar glory have stayed remarkably the same. In case you missed my recap of those major precursors, you can find them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/06/2018-golden-globe-nominations-reaction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/12/04/afi-picks-favourites/

Let’s get to the predictions, shall we?

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 4)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 7)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

10. First Man (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 13)

12. First Reformed (PR: 11)

13. Eighth Grade (PR: 12)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Widows (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Mary Queen of Scots

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 6)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 7)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 9)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 5)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

7. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 8)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

10. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 9)

Best Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 2)

2. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 9)

10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: 7)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Steve Carell, Vice

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 4)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 10)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: 7)

10. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 9)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: !)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

10. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Boy Erased

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. Green Book (PR: 4)

4. Vice (PR: 6)

5. First Reformed (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

7. Private Life (PR: 8)

8. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. Ben Is Back (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Mule

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 4)

5. Girl (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Burning (PR: 5)

7. Never Look Away (PR: 6)

8. Border (PR: 7)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 9)

10. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Guilty 

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 3)

3. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 4)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 9)

8. Early Man (PR: 7)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 8)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tito and the Birds

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Free Solo (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 6)

7. Dark Money (PR: 8)

8. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: 7)

9. Science Fair (PR: 10)

10. Quincy (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Amazing Grace

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Black Panther (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 8)

7. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

8. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 10)

9. Green Book (PR: 7)

10. Widows (PR: 6)

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

3. First Man (PR: 2)

4. The Favourite (PR: 3)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. Widows (PR: 9)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 7)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Colette

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Colette (PR: 5)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 6)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Stan & Ollie (PR: 6)

5. The Favourite (PR: 5)

6. Colette (PR: 7)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

9. Deadpool 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 2)

5. Roma (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 7)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

8. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Sound Mixing 

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. A Quiet Place (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

7. Roma (PR: 7)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Avengers: Infinity War

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 8)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 9)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Ant-Man and the Wasp (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Annihilation

A Wrinkle in Time

Best Original Score

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Isle of Dogs (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Colette (PR: 7)

8. Widows (PR: 6)

9. Black Panther (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Roma

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

3. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

5. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 9)

7. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 5)

8. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

9. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)

10. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

“Gravity” from Free Solo 

And that correlates to the following movies getting this number of nominations:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite, First Man

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, Vice

4 Nominations

Green Book

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Mary Queen of Scots

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, First Reformed, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Girl, Incredibles 2, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Crazy Rich Asians, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Dumplin’ 

 

2018 Golden Globe Nominations Reaction

The most known precursor to the Oscars unveiled their nominations today. Per usual, there were surprises as some films hopes potentially dim for the big prize with others rising.

As far as my predictions, I went 51/70 overall while going 5/5 in four of the fourteen races. Today I will also make my first predictions for winners with final picks coming a couple of days before the ceremony in January.

Let’s break them all down with a little analysis, shall we?

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

The Nominees: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, If Beale Street Could Talk, A Star Is Born

A bit surprisingly, Bohemian Rhapsody managed to score a nod over my prediction of First Man. I would say that at this juncture, Man is truly a question mark as to whether it garners an Oscar slot for Picture, while its inclusion in tech races still seems assured. Additionally, I think Black Panther helped its cause today to be the first comic book flick to get a Best Picture nomination from the Academy.

Predicted Winner: A Star Is Born

Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy

Todd’s Performance: 5/5

The Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians, The Favourite, Green Book, Mary Poppins Returns, Vice

No surprises here! Picking a winner is far more tough as I believe The Favourite, Green Book, and Vice all have legitimate shots. Both Peter Farrelly (Green Book) and Adam McKay (Vice) received Directing nods while Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) did not. That could give those two pictures a slight edge and I’ll put it as a coin toss at the moment.

Predicted Winner: Green Book

Best Director

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

The Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma), Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Adam McKay (Vice), Peter Farrelly (Green Book)

The aforementioned McKay and Farrelly were the ones I didn’t predict. I instead had Lanthimos and Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk). This would seem to be between Cuaron and Cooper and I’ll give the former a tiny edge.

Predicted Winner: Cuaron

Best Actor (Drama)

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Hedges and Washington (a rather genuine surprise) got in over Ryan Gosling (First Man) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed). Mr. Hawke had been on a roll with critics precursors and this is the first interruption of that. Gosling’s snub continues the troubling trend for First Man. With Christian Bale and Viggo Mortensen in the Musical/Comedy race, this appears to be a clear victory for Cooper.

Predicted Winner: Cooper

Best Actress (Drama)

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

The Nominees: Glenn Close (The Wife), Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born), Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Rosamund Pike (A Private War)

Both Kidman and Pike helped their cases for Oscar attention here while my predicted nominees of Viola Davis (Widows) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) did not. This category appears to be Close vs. Gaga (as it may also be for the Academy). This prediction could and likely will fluctuate.

Predicted Winner: Close

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

The Nominees: Christian Bale (Vice), Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book), Robert Redford (The Old Man & The Gun), John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)

No big surprise with Reilly getting in over Nick Robinson (Love, Simon), which was a bit of a wild card pick. Bale and Mortensen are the two winner possibilities and I’m going with the former right now.

Predicted Winner: Bale

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Todd’s Performance: 5/5

The Nominees: Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade), Charlize Theron (Tully), Constance Wu (Crazy Rich Asians)

I’m giving Colman the win, but this could easily be changed to Blunt at some point.

Predicted Winner: Colman

Best Supporting Actor

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Green Book), Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy), Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?), Sam Rockwell (Vice)

No Sam Elliot for A Star Is Born was unexpected, with Rockwell continuing the Vice love. Ali should be considered a soft front-runner, but a win for Driver or Grant seems feasible. I’m going for an upset pick, but could revert back to Ali.

Predicted Winner: Grant

Best Supporting Actress

Todd’s Performance: 5/5

The Nominees: Amy Adams (Vice), Claire Foy (First Man), Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

Adams is probably going to win… for Sharp Objects in the television race for which she’s also nominated. Stone and Weisz could cancel one another out and Foy represents the lone high-profile nod for First Man. That leaves Ms. King and she seems to be a front-runner.

Predicted Winner: King

Best Screenplay

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

The Nominees: The Favourite, Green Book, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, Vice

The exclusion of A Star Is Born surprised me with Green Book honored instead. This is a tough one, but I’ll say this ends up being the sole win for The Favourite. Roma and Vice are certainly possible.

Predicted Winner: The Favourite

Best Foreign Language Film

Todd’s Performance: 4/5

The Nominees: Capernaum, Girl, Never Look Away, Roma, Shoplifters

Capernaum in, Cold War out. Roma will win. Enough said.

Predicted Winner: Roma

Best Animated Feature Film

Todd’s Performance: 5/5

The Nominees: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Interent, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

This could certainly be the Academy five. The Hollywood Foreign Press loves their Pixar. Dogs and Spider-Man could threaten, but the safe pick is Incredibles 2.

Predicted Winner: Incredibles 2

Best Original Score

Todd’s Performance: 2/5

The Nominees: A Quiet Place, Isle of Dogs, Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns

Ouch. Didn’t fare well here as I only predicted First Man and Poppins. A shocking omission was Beale Street, which some see as the Academy favorite in this race. Considering its lackluster reception for Man, it could dangerous to pick it over Poppins, but here goes.

Predicted Winner: First Man

Best Original Song

Todd’s Performance: 3/5

The Nominees: “All the Stars” (Black Panther), “Girl in the Movies” (Dumplin’), “Requiem for a Private War” (A Private War), “Revelation” (Boy Erased), “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born)

I had two Poppins tracks in and not “Revelation” or “Requiem”. This is going Gaga.

Predicted Winner: “The Shallow” (A Star Is Born).

And there you have it folks! I’ll have updated Oscar predictions up later today…

2018 Golden Globe Predictions

The Golden Globes, perhaps the biggest precursor of all to the Oscars, unveils their nominees this Thursday as awards prognosticators like me attempt to read tea leaves. As a reminder, the Globes do it a bit differently than the Academy. For Picture and lead acting races, nominees are divided into Drama and Musical/Comedy. Unlike the Oscars, Screenplay is just one category with five pictures, whether they’re original or adapted works.

It should be strong showings for A Star Is Born and The Favourite in particular. Another difference between Globes and Oscar is that foreign features are only honored in their particular category. That’s significant this year as Roma will only be called for Foreign Language Film.

One item to pay attention to – Clint Eastwood’s The Mule. Despite coming out a week from Friday, it has yet to have reviews come out (perhaps this will change by Thursday). If it makes a showing in any of the dramatic races, that could bode well for Oscar attention.

Here are my predictions for the nominees in each category, along with an alternate and a wild card pick. I’ll have my weekly Oscar predictions updated on Thursday and we’ll see if the Globes alter those picks in any way.

Let’s get to it!

Best Motion Picture (Drama)

A Star Is Born

BlacKkKlansman

Black Panther

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Alternate – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Wild Card – The Mule

Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Crazy Rich Asians

The Favourite

Green Book

Mary Poppins Returns

Vice

Alternate – Eighth Grade

Wild Card – Private Life

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alternate – Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Wild Card – Damien Chazelle, First Man

Best Actor (Drama)

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

Ryan Gosling, First Man

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Alternate – Clint Eastwood, The Mule

Wild Card – Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

Best Actress (Drama)

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Glenn Close, The Wife

Viola Davis, Widows

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

Wild Card – Toni Collette, Hereditary

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)

Christian Bale, Vice

Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun

Nick Robinson, Love, Simon

Alternate – John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie

Wild Card – Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool 2

Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)

Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

Charlize Theron, Tully

Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians

Alternate – Regina Hall, Support the Girls

Wild Card – Kathryn Hahn, Private Life

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Alternate – Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite

Wild Card – Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Claire Foy, First Man

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Alternate – Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

Wild Card – Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

Best Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Alternate – Smallfoot

Wild Card – The Grinch

Best Foreign Language Film

Cold War

Girl

Never Look Away

Roma

Shoplifters

Alternate – Capernaum

Wild Card – I Am Not a Witch

Best Screenplay

A Star Is Born

The Favourite

If Beale Street Could Talk

Roma

Vice

Alternate – Green Book

Wild Card – First Reformed

Best Original Score

BlacKkKlansman

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

Mary Queen of Scots

Alternate – Widows

Wild Card – Suspiria

Best Original Song

“All the Stars” from Black Panther

“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

“The Shallow” from A Star Is Born

“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

Alternate – “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born

Wild Card – “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

And that equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

6 Nominations

The Favourite

5 Nominations

A Star Is Born, If Beale Street Could Talk, Mary Poppins Returns

4 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman, First Man, Roma, Vice

3 Nominations

Green Book

2 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Crazy Rich Asians

1 Nomination

Black Panther, At Eternity’s Gate, First Reformed, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Widows, The Old Man & The Gun, Love, Simon, Eighth Grade, Tully, Beautiful Boy, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters, Mary Queen of Scots

I’ll have reaction up on Thursday with updated Oscar picks later that day!

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 29th Edition

We’ve had the Gotham Awards, the National Board of Review, and New York Film Critics Circle transpire over the past week and my Oscar predictions are updated! Let’s get to it:

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Green Book (PR: 7)

5. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

7. Vice (PR: 5)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

10. First Man (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

11. First Reformed (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Eighth Grade (PR: 14)

13. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 12)

14. Widows (PR: 11)

15. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 13)

Dropped Out:

The Mule

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 7)

7. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 6)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 9)

9. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 8)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 10)

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 3)

4. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 5)

5. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 7)

8. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 3)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 6)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 7)

8. Toni Collette, Hereditary (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 2)

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

5. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 6)

7. Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: 9)

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 2)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 3)

4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 5)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 6)

7. Marina De Tavira, Roma (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 7)

10. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. First Man (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 5)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

8. The Hate U Give (PR: 7)

9. Boy Erased (PR: 8)

10. Leave No Trace (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. First Reformed (PR: 6)

4. Green Book (PR: 3)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Vice (PR: 4)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 7)

8. Private Life (PR: 8)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Capernaum (PR: 5)

5. Burning (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Never Look Away (PR: 8)

7. Border (PR: 10)

8. Girl (PR: 4)

9. Birds of Passage (PR: 6)

10. The Guilty (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

I Am Not a Witch

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (PR: 4)

4. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

5. Mirai (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Smallfoot (PR: 8)

7. Early Man (PR: 6)

8. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

9. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

10. Tito and the Birds (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Teen Titans Go! To the Movies

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 2)

3. Free Solo (PR: 3)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crime + Punishment (PR: 7)

7. Hale County This Morning, This Evening (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dark Money (PR: 8)

9. Amazing Grace (PR: 6)

10. Science Fair (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Quincy

Jane Fonda in Five Acts

Best Film Editing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Roma (PR: 3)

4. Black Panther (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 8)

7. Green Book (PR: 10)

8. Vice (PR: 5)

9. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mary Poppins Returns

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 5)

3. The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

5. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 7)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

9. Widows (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. First Man (PR: 5)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 6)

7. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

8. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 9)

10. Colette (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. Colette (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 2)

3. Vice (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 7)

5. The Favourite (PR: 4)

6. Stan & Ollie (PR: 5)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 10)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Suspiria

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 3)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

5. Roma (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

7. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

8. Annihilation (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Black Panther (PR: 3)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 7)

7. Roma (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 10)

10. Ready Player One (PR: 9)

Best Visual Effects

1. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

2. First Man (PR: 1)

3. Ready Player One (PR: 4)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

5. Black Panther (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annihilation (PR: 6)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 8)

8. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

9. A Quiet Place (PR: 10)

10. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: 9)

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 3)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 4)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Widows (PR: 7)

7. Colette (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 8)

10. Roma (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Green Book

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 2)

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 3)

4. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 4)

5. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 6)

7. “Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’ (PR: Not Ranked)

8. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

9. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 7)

10. “Gravity” from Free Solo (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Always Remember Us This Way” from A Star Is Born

”A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet

That equates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

11 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite, First Man

9 Nominations

Black Panther

8 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots, Vice

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

First Reformed, A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Eighth Grade, Cold War, Shoplifters, Capernaum, Burning, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, On the Basis of Sex

Roma Takes New York

One of the oldest critics group weighed in on the best of the year this morning as the New York Film Critics Circle bestowed their honors. And the writers of the Big Apple clearly took to Roma, which was victorious for Best Picture, Director (Alfonso Cuaron), and Cinematography.

There’s little doubt the Mexican drama will get a nomination at the Oscars. However, the NYFCC top prize certainly doesn’t ensure a win at the big race. Far from it. You have to go back to 2011 since the Oscar and NYFCC recipients matched – The Artist. 

Roma has held the #2 spot in my estimated nominees for weeks behind A Star Is Born. For now, I don’t see that changing.

For Best Actor, Ethan Hawke won for First Reformed and I don’t expect that will be the last of his critics group trophies. Hawke has established himself as a real threat to make the final 5 for the Academy. Additionally, the Screenplay award went to Reformed, furthering boosting the prospect of Paul Schrader getting his first Oscar nod in Original Screenplay.

The NYFCC is known for throwing a surprise in the acting categories (think Tiffany Haddish for Girls Trip) and this year was no different. Best Actress went to Regina Hall for the acclaimed indie dramedy Support the Girls. While the exposure here only helps, the Actress race is very crowded and Hall’s inclusion seems quite unlikely at the moment.

Richard E. Grant took Supporting Actor for Can You Ever Forgive Me? in what is shaping up to be a genuine three-person race between him, Mahershala Ali (Green Book), and Sam Elliot (A Star Is Born). Regina King got Supporting Actress for If Beale Street Could Talk as she appears to be the soft front-runner, with Amy Adams (Vice) and the women of The Favourite (Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz) lurking.

In down-the-line categories, Animated Feature went to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (which may just establish itself as a threat to Incredibles 2). Minding the Gap got the Non-Fiction race and Cold War took Best Foreign Language Film.

Other groups will be weighing in soon and I’ll have all the coverage right here!

NBR Goes Green

The National Board of Review bestowed its annual honors today for the pictures of 2018 and they went green. That means it was a very good day for Peter Farrelly’s race relations drama Green Book and it might have come at just the right moment. It won Best Film at a time when its box office performance has been lackluster and lead Viggo Mortensen got into hot water for remarks at a recent event. The last three winners of the NBR top prize (Mad Max: Fury Road, Manchester by the Sea, The Post) all received Picture nominations at the Oscars (it’s worth pointing out that none of them won).

I don’t expect Green Book to emerge victorious at the Academy Awards, but this does help its case for a nomination. The NBR is also unique in that it names 10 other movies as their favorites beyond the big recipient. The list this year is as follows:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Eighth Grade

First Reformed

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Poppins Returns

A Quiet Place

Roma

A Star Is Born

Over the past decade or so, usually 5-7 of those 11 honorees go on to Oscar recognition. In addition to Green Book, I’m currently assuming Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma, and A Star Is Born are in. That’s five. I’m also growing more confident that Mary Poppins Returns could manage to reach the final nine or ten nominees. The rest remain question marks. Eighth Grade and First Reformed seem to be gaining steam, but I’m uncertain they’ll get all the way to the top. The three that I believe are least likely are Can You Ever Forgive Me?, A Quiet Place, and Buster Scruggs. 

Bradley Cooper took Directing honors for A Star Is Born and he’s already a safe bet for Academy inclusion. His costars Lady Gaga and Sam Elliot took the Actress and Supporting Actor races. All in all, it was a fine day for A Star Is Born. Elliot’s win is a boost for him and it’s a little surprising they didn’t name Green Book costar Mahershala Ali, considering the film’s other successes today.

Speaking of Green Book, the aforementioned Mr. Mortensen took Best Actor. He’s looking good for an Oscar nod, but I still put him behind Cooper and Christian Bale (Vice) when it comes to winning possibilities.

Regina King’s work in If Beale Street Could Talk earned her Supporting Actress and she’s a lock for Oscar inclusion.

Paul Schrader’s original screenplay for First Reformed was honored for the second day in a row after its Gotham Award. For the past couple of weeks, I’ve had Reformed just on the outside of my nominated predictions in that category. I foresee that changing on Thursday when I update them… though I’m uncertain which entry falls out between The Favourite, Roma, Vice, and Eighth Grade. Barry Jenkins took Adapted Screenplay for Beale Street and he’s got a real shot at the gold statue.

The notable snubs on the list are primarily BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, First Man and Vice. However, it’s worth noting again that plenty of movies have missed the NBR cut and managed Oscar glory.

As for some down the line honorees – Incredibles 2 won Best Animated Film, RBG took Best Documentary, and Cold War got Best Foreign Language Film. All seem bound for the final five a couple of months from now.

And there’s your NBR report, folks! The New York Film Critics are on deck next and I’ll have a recap of that one Thursday!

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 22nd Edition

My weekly Oscar predictions are here and there’s been significant developments in the past seven days!

  • Vice, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mary Queen of Scots have all held industry screenings. All experienced positive word of mouth. Vice jumps four spots in Best Picture and Poppins is just barely on the outside of my predicted nominees. It could continue to climb. Scots is more of a question mark, but it could gather momentum.
  • Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) enters my Best Director five, replacing Peter Farrelly (Green Book). The latter slips in several rankings this week due to its lackluster box office performance.
  • For the first time, Ethan Hawke’s work in First Reformed is a predicted nominee. He replaces Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate).
  • Emily Blunt is in for Poppins, vaulting over Yalitza Aparicio (Roma).
  • In Supporting Actor, it’s Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman) back in over Sam Rockwell (Vice).
  • For Supporting Actress, Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) returns over Nicole Kidman for Boy Erased.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

1. A Star Is Born (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 2)

3. The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

5. Vice (PR: 9)

6. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

7. Green Book (PR: 3)

8. Black Panther (PR: 8)

9. First Man (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Widows (PR: 10)

12. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 11)

13. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Eighth Grade (PR: Not Ranked)

15. The Mule (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Boy Erased

Crazy Rich Asians

A Quiet Place

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (PR: 1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

3. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (PR: 5)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 6)

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam McKay, Vice (PR: 9)

7. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (PR: 4)

8. Damien Chazelle, First Man (PR: 7)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (PR: 8)

10. Rob Marshall, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me? 

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

2. Christian Bale, Vice (PR: 3)

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 4)

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryan Gosling, First Man (PR: 6)

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate (PR: 5)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (PR: 8)

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man & The Gun (PR: 9)

10. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (PR: 10)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (PR: 3)

3. Glenn Close, The Wife (PR: 1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (PR: 5)

7. Viola Davis, Widows (PR: 6)

8. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (PR: 8)

9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (PR: 7)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (PR: 1)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 3)

3. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born (PR: 2)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (PR: 4)

5. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sam Rockwell, Vice (PR: 5)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (PR: 7)

8. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Vice (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

Best Supporting Actress

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 1)

2. Amy Adams, Vice (PR: 3)

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite (PR: 2)

4. Claire Foy, First Man (PR: 4)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (PR: 5)

7. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (PR: 7)

9. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 8)

10. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Linda Cardellini, Green Book

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 2)

2. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 1)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (PR: 4)

5. Widows (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man (PR: 6)

7. The Hate U Give (PR: 8)

8. Boy Erased (PR: 7)

9. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 9)

10. Leave No Trace (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Black Panther

Best Original Screenplay

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Roma (PR: 3)

3. Green Book (PR: 2)

4. Vice (PR: 5)

5. Eighth Grade (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. First Reformed (PR: 6)

7. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

8. Private Life (PR: 7)

9. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

10. The Mule (PR: 10)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. Cold War (PR: 2)

3. Shoplifters (PR: 3)

4. Girl (PR: 4)

5. Capernaum (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Birds of Passage (PR: 7)

7. Burning (PR: 6)

8. Never Look Away (PR: 8)

9. I Am Not a Witch (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Border (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Guilty

Best Animated Feature

1. Incredibles 2 (PR: 1)

2. Isle of Dogs (PR: 2)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: 3)

4. Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse (PR: 5)

5. Mirai (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Early Man (PR: 8)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (PR: 7)

8. Smallfoot (PR: 6)

9. Lu Over the Wall (PR: 9)

10. Teen Titans Go! To the Movies (PR: 10)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (PR: 1)

2. Three Identical Strangers (PR: 3)

3. Free Solo (PR: 2)

4. RBG (PR: 4)

5. Minding the Gap (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Amazing Grace (PR: 6)

7. Crime + Punishment (PR: 8)

8. Dark Money (PR: 7)

9. Quincy (PR: 10)

10. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (PR: 9)

Best Film Editing

1. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

2. First Man (PR: 2)

3. Roma (PR: 1)

4. The Favourite (PR: 8)

5. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 4)

7. Black Panther (PR: 6)

8. Widows (PR: 7)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Green Book (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

BlacKkKlansman

Best Cinematography

1. Roma (PR: 1)

2. The Favourite (PR: 4)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Black Panther (PR: 6)

7. Cold War (PR: 10)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: 9)

9. Widows (PR: 8)

10. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 7)

Best Production Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 5)

5. First Man (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: Not Ranked)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 6)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 8)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

If Beale Street Could Talk

Best Costume Design

1. The Favourite (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 4)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. Colette (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Crazy Rich Asians (PR: 7)

7. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (PR: 5)

8. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 10)

9. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (PR: 8)

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (PR: 9)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Black Panther (PR: 1)

2. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

3. Vice (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Favourite (PR: 2)

5. Stan & Ollie (PR: 4)

6. Colette (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 9)

8. A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. Suspiria (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 7)

Best Sound Editing

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Black Panther (PR: 2)

3. A Star Is Born (PR: 3)

4. Roma (PR: 5)

5. A Quiet Place (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Incredibles 2 (PR: 6)

7. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 8)

8. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

9. Mission: Impossible – Fallout (PR: 7)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Sound Mixing

1. First Man (PR: 2)

2. A Star Is Born (PR: 1)

3. Black Panther (PR: 4)

4. A Quiet Place (PR: 3)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Roma (PR: 7)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (PR: 6)

8. Incredibles 2 (PR: 8)

9. Ready Player One (PR: 10)

10. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Widows

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (PR: 1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (PR: 2)

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 6)

4. Ready Player One (PR: 3)

5. Black Panther (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Annihilation (PR: 5)

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story (PR: 7)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (PR: 9)

9. Ant–Man and the Wasp (PR: Not Ranked)

10. A Quiet Place (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald

Best Original Score

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. First Man

3. Mary Poppins Returns (PR: 5)

4. Mary Queen of Scots (PR: 3)

5. BlacKkKlansman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colette (PR: 10)

7. Widows (PR: 6)

8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Roma (PR: 9)

10. Green Book (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Song

1. “The Shallow” from A Star Is Born

2. “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns

3. “I’ll Fight” from RBG (PR: 4)

4. “All the Stars” from Black Panther (PR: 3)

5. “I’ll Never Love Again” from A Star Is Born (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “We Won’t Move” from The Hate U Give (PR: 7)

7. “Revelation” from Boy Erased (PR: 6)

8. “Always Remeber Us This Way” from A Star Is Born (PR: 8)

9. “Time for Change” from On the Basis of Sex (PR: 8)

10. “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from Ralph Breaks the Internet (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

”Hearts Beat Loud” from Hearts Beat Loud

And that translates to the following number of nominations for each picture:

12 Nominations

A Star Is Born

10 Nominations

The Favourite

9 Nominations

First Man

8 Nominations

Black Panther

7 Nominations

Mary Poppins Returns

6 Nominations

If Beale Street Could Talk, Vice

5 Nominations

BlacKkKlansman

4 Nominations

Green Book, Mary Queen of Scots

3 Nominations

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

2 Nominations

A Quiet Place, RBG

1 Nomination

Bohemian Rhapsody, First Reformed, The Wife, Beautiful Boy, Widows, Eighth Grade, Cold War, Shoplifters, Girl, Capernaum, Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Ralph Breaks the Internet, Spider–Man: Into the Spider–Verse, Mirai, Won’t You Be My Neighbor?, Three Identical Strangers, Free Solo, Minding the Gap, Colette, Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One

Happy Thanksgiving y’all!