Oscar Predictions: Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down

Documentarians Julie Cohen and Betsy West specialize in focusing on female historical figures and their efforts have already captured the attention of the Academy. 2018’s RBG about Justice Ginsburg was a Best Documentary Feature nominee. Last year’s Julia, recounting the life of famed chef Julia Child, was in the mix but failed to receive a nod.

The duo’s latest is Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down, which premiered at South by Southwest in the spring and has hit theaters in limited fashion this week. It will air on CNN later this year. The title subject is, of course, the former Arizona Congresswoman turned advocate following her 2011 assassination attempt.

As far as its awards prospects, history could repeat itself as Gabby sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. With Second Amendment issues on the forefront of the news cycle, that could contribute to its timeliness and desire for the Academy to recognize it.

Yet when it comes to docs, there’s always the caveat that this branch is notoriously unpredictable and sometimes nominees that seem obvious don’t make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Navalny

Focused on the Russian opposition leader who was mysteriously poisoned in 2020, Navalny struck a chord with Sundance festival goers and won the documentary audience award and festival favorite prize.

It comes from filmmaker Daniel Roher and is slated for distribution on CNN and via HBO Max in the early portion of the year. Standing at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this will attempt to carry its buzz forward through awards season and could absolutely be a factor in the Doc Feature competition at next year’s Oscars.

Sundance is often a successful launching pad in the genre. Last year, a third of the 15 doc contenders (including Flee, Faye Dayi, and Summer of Soul) got their starts in Park City. Navalny may be on the list this time in 2023 and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Julia

The life of Julia Child has intersected with Academy voters before when Meryl Streep was nominated for Best Actress as the famed cook in 2009’s Julie & Julia. Will it occur again with Julia, a documentary hitting screens on November 5?

From directors Julie Cohen and Betsy West, Julia premiered this month at the Telluride Film Festival. The reviews are all positive and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. However, some of thumbs up assessments weren’t overly glowing in their praise.

The co-production with CNN Films certainly stands a decent shot at inclusion in Documentary Feature, but I didn’t feel confident enough about it to slot it in my top five earlier today. We’ll see if it eventually bubbles up to the surface. My Oscar Predictions posts on the films of 2021 will continue…

Oscar Watch: Boys State

The buzz for Boys State began at the beginning of the year when it won the highest prize at the Sundance Film Festival for documentaries. It follows a Texas event for teenagers who build a representative form of government. The pic comes from directors Jesse Moss and Amanda McBaine. The former is responsible for the acclaimed 2014 doc The Overnighters, which didn’t manage to make the final cut in Documentary Feature at the Oscars.

State, streaming on Apple TV since August, has a strong shot at faring better. With a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score, its subject matter could resonate with voters in this highly charged political year. The documentary competition is just starting to formulate at the Academy level. Projects such as Netflix’s Crip Camp and Dick Johnson Is Dead (look for that Watch post shortly) and John Lewis: Good Trouble from CNN Films are already hopefuls and Boys State can include itself in the mix. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch – John Lewis: Good Trouble

CNN Films broke into the Oscar mix two years ago with two documentaries nominated – Three Identical Strangers and RBG, focused on the life and career of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. That feature has obviously played over the weekend in the wake of her death.

Their film division should have another possibiity in 2020 with John Lewis: Good Trouble. Chronicling the Civil Rights leader and Congressman’s experiences in his decades of service, Trouble premiered just two weeks before his passing in July.

Reviews were solid and respectful with some critics saying it fell a bit short of expectations. Nevertheless the Rotten Tomatoes rating is 96% and it’s easy to imagine that awards voters will wish to include this in the Documentary Feature race. I am doubtful at this point that it wins. The Netflix doc Crip Camp, which comes from Higher Ground Productions formed by Barack and Michelle Obama, is an already released strong contender. Plus we still have plenty of time for other hopefuls to emerge. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Apollo 11

Focused on the mission that put a man on the moon a half century ago, the documentary Apollo 11 launched in select cities this weekend to solid box office results. The feature is directed by Todd Douglas Miller and it first garnered buzz during its January screenings at the Sundance Film Festival. Critics landed firmly in its camp as it currently stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Apollo took in approximately $1.6 million on 120 screens for a laudable $13,000 per theater average. There are likely to be numerous docs contending for the Academy’s attention. Neon and CNN Films will need to mount a campaign that keeps this in the voters minds for months, but that’s feasible. It’s worth keeping an eye on for a Best Documentary Feature nod.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…