Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.
Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?
Best International Feature Film
Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves
There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper
Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.
Best Original Score
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.
Best Original Song
Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz
The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked
In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.
Best Sound
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).
Best Visual Effects
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked
I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.
Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).
It’s been two weeks since I’ve updated my predictions in the feature-length categories and developments have occurred. Steve McQueen’s Blitz opened the London Film Festival and its Oscar stock took a hit. While I still have it being nominated in five categories including Picture and Supporting Actress (Saoirse Ronan), it falls out of my high five in Director and Original Screenplay, among others.
Another significant screening was the industry’s first look at Gladiator II a month before it debuts. With the caveat that these previews are often hyperbolic, the 24 years in the making sequel’s fortunes improved. I now have it contending for seven statues including Best Picture. Its rise causes The Room Next Door to drop out of my 10 BP hopefuls. Denzel Washington also re-enters my Supporting Actor picks with Stanley Tucci (Conclave) now on the outside looking in.
In Director, Blitz‘s McQueen is out in favor of RaMell Ross of Nickel Boys. I’ve put Daniel Craig back in my Actor quintet at the expense of Sebastian Stan in The Apprentice (which opened to dismal box office).
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 14) (+3)
12. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (-3)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. September 5 (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2.Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-1)
10.Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Toni Collette, Juror No. 2
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-2)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. September 5 (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
10. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Dídi
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
A Complete Unknown
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 4) (-2)
7. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Grand Tour (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Kneecap (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Armand (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cloud
Flow
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (E)
4. Flow (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Wohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daughters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Black Box Diaries (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Union (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sugarcane (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dahomey (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Maria (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blitz (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
September 5
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 4) (+2)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 8) (E)
9. Blitz (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+8)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 5) (+3)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (-6)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Blitz (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Visusal Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Better Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
And that all works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
10 Nominations
The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Gladiator II
6 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Blitz, Conclave
3 Nominations
Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, Wicked
2 Nominations
Maria, Nosferatu, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, September 5, The Substance, Twisters, Union, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
At the 92nd Academy Awards that occurred in February 2020, Joker led the way with 11 nominations and 2 victories for Joaquin Phoenix in Actor and the Original Score. At the 97th ceremony, the story will be much different. Joker: Folie à Deux debuted yesterday. It currently has matching 32% ratings with critics and audiences and a D Cinemascore grade (the worst of 2024 and lower than Megalopolis).
A couple of months ago, Deux was seen as a repeat possibility in Best Picture and for Phoenix and costar Lady Gaga. Now I think it’s a legitimate question as to whether Joker gets any nominations at all. Even with the poor word-of-mouth and incoming subpar box office numbers, some tech races are still viable. However, I would not surprised if it totally blanks. That’s what I’m projecting at the moment.
We have a change in Best Picture with The Room Next Door back in over Saturday Night. There’s been a consistent 5 in Best Actor for weeks, but that’s interrupted with Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) sliding in with Daniel Craig (Queer) falling to sixth. In Supporting Actress, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) rises over Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez).
Speaking of Pérez, there’s uncertainty whether it will contend for Original or Adapted Screenplay. I’ve had it in the former and it now moves to the latter.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 11) (+2)
10. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Saturday Night (PR: 8) (-3)
12. September 5 (PR: 14) (+2)
13. A Complete Unknown (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 7 (E)
8. Mohammad Rasolouf, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 9) (E)
10. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jason Reitman, Saturday Night
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (E)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nicholas Hoult, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (E)
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
10. John Magaro, September 5 (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Drew Starkey, Queer
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+1)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Blitz (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-1)
9. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
The Substance
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Queer (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Piano Lesson
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Universal Language (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kneecap (PR: 8) (E)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Flow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dahomey
Caught by the Tides
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (E)
3. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Flow (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5 (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Orion and the Dark (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Black Box Diaries (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Sugarcane (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Union (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Separated
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Anora (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 2) (-5)
8. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Saturday Night
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 6) (+1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+!)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Substance (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+5)
4. Conclave (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 6) (E)
7. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-4)
8. Challengers (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Blitz (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Forbidden Road” from Better Man (PR: 10) (+6)
5. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap (PR: 5) (-3)
9. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Folie à Deux” from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Harley and Joker Waltz” from Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Maria (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Twisters
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 4) (E)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Twisters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Better Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Wicked (PR: 7) (-3)
That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
The Brutalist
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
9 Nominations
Blitz
6 Nominations
Anora, Conclave, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Gladiator II, Maria, Nosferatu, A Real Pain
2 Nominations
The Apprentice, Nickel Boys, The Room Next Door, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Better Man, Black Box Diaries, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Sugarcane, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Kiyoshi Kurosawa (no relation to Akira) premiered his latest feature Cloud at the Venice Film Festival and he’s had good luck there before. His 2020 effort Wife of a Spy took the Silver Lion (equivalent to Best Director). This psychological thriller is garnering mostly decent reviews and Japan has selected it as their pick for International Feature Film.
The nation has seen a handful of their selections nominated for the prize in the 21st century. That includes two winners (2008’s Departures, 2021’s Drive My Car) in addition to 2003’s The Twilight Samurai, 2018’s Shoplifters, and Perfect Days from last year.
With 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 70 Metacritic score, I’m not confident the acclaim is strong enough for Japan to make the race this time. If Cloud manages to make the shortlist, however, it could sneak in. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
You can’t judge a movie by its trailer, but you can alter your Oscar Predictions and such is the case with Nightbitch. For many weeks, I’ve had Amy Adams perched atop my Best Actress list. The six-time nominee has to get the gold sometime right? After today’s first look, I don’t think this is the vehicle. Perhaps the Toronto Film Festival (where this screens in days) will prove me wrong.
Speaking of festivals, you might have heard that Telluride just concluded as Venice is at its midpoint. As both events tend to do, the awards landscape has been altered due to their premieres. Some pics and performers have risen while others have fallen.
The biggest winner at the time of this publication seems to be Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist from Venice. The three hour plus Holocaust survivor drama vaults 20 spots from #23 to #3 in my Best Picture rankings with Corbet in for his direction and Adrien Brody returning to the Actor derby. Mr. Brody knocks out Sebastian Stan in A Different Man. Speaking of Stan, he will also be vying for attention as Donald Trump in The Apprentice. It was confirmed this week that it will be released in October.
Another benefactor, this one from Telluride, is Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night. The solid reaction in Colorado puts it (barely) in my BP hopefuls along with Original Screenplay and Film Editing recognition.
The inclusion of these two newbies knocks out two others that didn’t fare quite as well in their unveilings – Queer and The Piano Lesson. They are both still listed in Other Possibilities but are no longer picks to make the big dance.
Three of the four acting races have new #1s. While Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) is still first in Actor (with Ralph Fiennes from Conclave and Adrien Brody hot on his heels), the aforementioned Adams plummets in Actress. In her place? Mikey Madison from Anora though Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Karla Sofia Gascón are close behind. Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) makes her first appearance in the quintet. Please note that Folie will screen in Venice tomorrow so we’ll know more then (keep an eye on the blog for its individual predictions post).
In Supporting Actress, my previous #1 Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) slides three positions with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) moving up. Her costar Selena Gomez is now in my five as well and that takes out Tilda Swinton in The Room Next Door. I will say deciding between Gomez and Swinton for the 5 spot was basically a coin flip.
The news for Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) and his chances are worse. He goes from 1st to 9th with Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) back at one. Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, who would be a first-time nominee, rockets from 15th to 2nd in the race and Stanley Tucci (Conclave) reenters over his costar John Lithgow.
You can read all the movement – and there is plenty of movement indeed – below and my next update will likely come Sunday as more Venice titles screen and Toronto begins!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 23) (+20)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (+2)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (+8)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Queer (PR: 7) (-7)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 17) (+1)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (-2)
18. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-9)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+3)
20. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-6)
21. Wicked (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
23. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. Maria (PR: 18) (-6)
25. A Different Man (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Hard Truths
The End
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-6)
14. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (-6)
8. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-2)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 11) (+8)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (-3)
9. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Paul Mescal. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-7)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: 13) (E)
14. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Valeria Golino, Maria
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 15) (+13)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (+4)
9. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 1) (-8)
10. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
11. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 9) (-5)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 3) (-12)
Dropped Out:
Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Saturday Night (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 14) (+9)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Dídi (PR: 10) (E)
11. September 5 (PR: Not Ranked)
12. The Substance (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Challengers (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The End
Maria
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (E)
10. Nightbitch (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (-2)
7. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Universal Language (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Cloud (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Evil Does Not Exist
Simon of the Mountain
Uprising
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Savages (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7 (E)
8. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Orion and the Dark (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Most Precious of Cargoes
Transformers One
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Land (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Union
Gaucho Gaucho
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Anora (PR: 8) (E)
9. Queer (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Conclave
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (-2)
7. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Challengers (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
A Complete Unknown
Queer
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (E)
5. Maria (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Sasquatch Sunset
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Queer (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Challengers (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nosferatu
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Why Am I Here” from Shirley (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Wicked
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (E)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Conclave (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Queer
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (+2)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (E)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
A Quiet Place: Day One
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Twisters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wicked (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 6) (-4)
And that works out to these pictures generating these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Blitz
8 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
The Brutalist
6 Nominations
Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Conclave
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
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