It has been a decade since a SpongeBob movie was properly located in theaters, but that changes December 19th with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. Derek Drymon, a veteran of the Nickelodeon show, handles directorial duties. Voiceover artists from the quarter century plus running series include Tom Kenny, Clancy Brown, and Rodger Bumpass. Some familiar faces behind the mic are George Lopez, Ice Spice, Arturo Castro, Sherry Cola, Regina Hall, and Mark Hamill.
Back in 2004, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32 million on its way to an $85 million domestic gross. In 2015, sequel Sponge Out of Water improved on those figures with $55 million out of the gate and $162 million overall stateside. In August of 2020, Sponge on the Run didn’t have a proper theatrical output due to the COVID pandemic.
Search is not expected to come close to what the first two franchise entries accomplished. There will be competition for families from the biblical animated tale David as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. While some forecasts have this achieving mid 20s, I think mid to possibly late teens is a likelier scenario.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
The Fault in Our Stars director Josh Boone is back in the romantic drama genre with Regretting You on October 24th. Adapting Colleen Hoover’s 2019 novel, the Paramount release stars Allison Williams, Mckenna Grace, Dave Franco, Mason Thames, Willa Fitzgerald, Scott Eastwood, and Clancy Brown.
The studio is hoping that Hoover’s readers come out in droves like they did last year with It Ends with Us. That Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni team-up (and it’s safe to say the last one) began with a sizzling $50 million. Regretting isn’t expected to get anywhere near that. If this reached $20 million out of the gate, that would be a massive win.
Tracking has it in the low to mid teens and that sounds right.
Regretting You opening weekend prediction: $14 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
Chris Pine makes his directorial debut, cowrites, and stars in Poolman which wades into theaters in a limited pattern this Friday. The comedic noir has a sizable supporting cast including Annette Bening, DeWanda Wise, Stephen Tobolowsky, Clancy Brown, John Ortiz, Ray Wise, Juliet Mills, Ariana DeBose, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Danny DeVito.
An eagerly awaited premiere at the Toronto Film Festival last fall, Poolman flopped upon its unveiling. The RT score is just 23%. It is safe to assume that the Star Trek and Wonder Woman franchise player won’t get to bring this title character back. We certainly won’t see any awards mentions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
No franchise has seen more actors submit headshots to get their heads shot than this one. Nearly a decade has passed since the puppy of John Wick (Keanu Reeves) was offed by Russian mobsters in the 2014 original. Much less time has expired onscreen as we arrive at Chapter 4. In the features that have followed, the world building continues to grow as the squib games ramp up.
As a quick reminder, Wick was a legendary hitman mourning his wife’s death from natural causes in 2014. When the condemned criminals caused the demise of his very good boy, it triggered a thirst for revenge still not quenched. The storyline also veered into unexpected and violently enjoyable directions. This includes The Continental, stylish hotels across the globe that cater to nefarious types. The Wick world also established its own set of rules for how these characters behave. It’s all set in a cinematic universe where law enforcement is on permanent break and an all-powerful syndicate The High Table calls the shots.
Ultimately it’s an excuse for long take battles where Keanu and his friends and enemies (and in some cases frenemies) find fresh ways to shoot indistinguishable baddies in the head. This can be monotonous but director Chad Stahelski and his team of technicians and stunt persons more often impress with their inventive set-ups.
In 2019’s Chapter 3 – Parabellum, Wick was left for dead by the High Table and rescued by underground crime lord the Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our title character is in heavy revenge mode as the travelogue takes him to Morocco on horseback and then New York City, Japan, and Berlin. His back is always against the wall as the reward for his killing is $20 million and increasing.
The main player tasked with extinguishing Wick is Caine (Donnie Yen), a blind former Table assassin reluctantly returning to employment. His lack of sight causes creative ways for him to accomplish goals. Every time a bell rings around him, a henchman gets his wings (you’ll see). His hirer is the arrogant and ruthless Marquis (Bill Skarsgård), making for a delightfully smarmy addition. Skarsgård nailed the role of Pennywise with his demented sideways glances in the It double feature. Now he has another memorable villainous turn. Ian McShane’s Continental manager Winston (last seen putting a bullet into Wick) is more supportive this time. Shamier Anderson turns up as a skilled bounty hunter waiting for the price to be right before taking Wick out. In keeping with the franchise’s canine connection, he has a dedicated pooch who enacts cruelty to would-be tormentors. The dog’s presence also humorously reveals that even hotels for the underworld must adopt a policy for emotional support animals.
I have a tough time ranking these movies over the others. It sort of feels like one long movie. This one feels a bit longer because it is. Chapter 4 probably doesn’t need to clock in at three hours, but the action sequences continue to wow and this edition has the best adversary. As long as they continue to stay this solid and stylish, my policy will be to support them.
Blogger’s Update (03/20): Wick appears poised for a massive over performance. I am revising from projection from $69.1M to $85.5M.
Each Wick pic has burned brighter at the box office than the previous entry and the trend looks to continue as John Wick: Chapter 4 is unleashed on March 24th. Keanu Reeves is back in the title role with Chad Stahelski returning to direct. The supporting players are a mix of familiar franchise faces and newcomers including Donnie Yen, Bill Skarsgård, Hiroyuki Sanada, Shamier Anderson, Lance Reddick, Rino Sawayama, Ian McShane, and Laurence Fishburne.
In the fall of 2014, the first Wick was a modest success when it debuted with $14 million and $43 million domestic overall. Those numbers seem meager now, but they were better than anticipated and more fans were gained when it hit the home viewing circuit. The 2017 sequel took in $30 million out of the gate with $92 million total. In 2019, Chapter 3 – Parabellum soared to a $56 million premiere with $171 million in the stateside bank.
At nearly three hours long, Chapter 4 is generating some of the strongest reviews of the series. With 91% on Rotten Tomatoes, critics are particularly praising the choreography of its wild action sequences. That should get plenty of genre fans out to the multiplexes. Like Creed III, look for this to score a series high opening with room to spare. I’m thinking mid 60s to possibly $70 million is achievable.
John Wick: Chapter 4 opening weekend prediction: $85.5 million (REVISED NUMBER)
Ahead of its April 17th stateside debut, the revenge thriller Promising Young Woman has screened at Sundance. The pic marks the directorial debut of Emerald Fennell and casts Carey Mulligan in the title role alongside a supporting cast including Bo Burnham, Alison Brie, Clancy Brown, Jennifer Coolidge, Adam Brody, Alfred Molina, Connie Britton, and Laverne Cox.
Early reviews are encouraging with a Rotten Tomatoes rating of 96%. Some critical reaction is effusive enough to make one wonder if Mulligan could nab her second Oscar nod after 2009’s An Education.
In order for that, Focus Features will need to launch an aggressive campaign to keep voters focused on her work in the months that follow. The Sundance buzz, at least, is somewhat promising. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
“We tell the truth. Or at least our version of it.”
This is perhaps the central line uttered by Senator Ted Kennedy (Jason Clarke) in John Curran’s Chappaquiddick. It recalls the events that took place in the summer of 1969 that resulted in the drowning death of Mary Jo Kopechne (Kate Mara) with the Senator at the wheel. This is a tale of power potentially interrupted as Ted is the last living brother of America’s royal family. Unfolding just months after Bobby’s assassination during his Presidential campaign, the youngest Kennedy is seen as a contender for the highest office in the land in 1972.
His brother’s death indirectly leads to the film’s events as Ted organizes a reunion of the “Boiler Room Girls”, a group of female staffers that worked on Bobby’s bid for the White House. New Jersey native Mary Jo is one of them and her fateful car ride with Ted becomes the subject of endless speculation on the same weekend where Neil Armstrong first stepped foot on the moon. The accident isn’t reported by the world-famous driver until eight hours following its occurrence. The screenplay from Taylor Allen and Andrew Logan hypothesizes that Kennedy’s truth about it is indeed his own, with details like alcohol consumption conveniently omitted and a concussion and needless neck brace advantageously added.
The deception extends to patriarch Joseph Kennedy Sr. (Bruce Dern). He can’t speak due to a debilitating stroke, but he can still mobilize a crisis control team at short notice. This includes former Secretary of Defense Bob McNamara (Clancy Brown) and family speechwriter Ted Sorensen (Taylor Nichols). The conscience of the piece is Kennedy cousin Joe Gargan (Ed Helms), who accompanies Ted and Massachusetts District Attorney friend Paul Markham (Jim Gaffigan) to rescue the deceased passenger when it’s far too late. Gargan is a member of the Kennedy clan, though he doesn’t fully recognize the extent they will go to in protecting their brand.
Any movie recounting the days of Chappaquiddick and its aftermath will be looked at through a political lens. Ardent supporters of its central character will likely take issue with some theories put forth here, including Ted’s original thought to claim Mary Jo was driving. So while the leanings of some viewers could be tainted by that, Chappaquiddick is primarily a procedural about a tragedy caused by someone with extraordinary influence. When Kennedy goes to the small island’s office of the police chief to give a hastily written statement, he immediately enters and sits behind the chief’s desk in his chair. It’s a minor detail, but not an insignificant one in showing the power structure involved here.
Chappaquiddick doesn’t shed much unique light on the well-researched event, but it’s held together by a strong performance from Clarke. His Ted is one in constant conflict and not just with the details of the drowning. He is a man of apparent destiny whether he wants it or not or whether his father even believes he deserves it. A sharp turn derails those ambitions to a certain degree. In this version of it, the filmmakers don’t let Kennedy off the hook.
Arriving in theaters a little later than anticipated, historical drama Chappaquiddick debuts next weekend. Directed by John Curran, the film recounts the 1969 car accident that killed Mary Jo Kopechne and Ted Kennedy’s role in it. Jason Clarke plays Kennedy with Kate Mara as Kopechne. Supporting players include Ed Helms, Bruce Dern, Jim Gaffigan, Taylor Nichols, and Clancy Brown.
The pic receives its first screening last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were mostly positive and it stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, reaction was muted enough that Entertainment Studios moved it from its December 2017 awards qualifying run to this April roll out.
Chappaquiddick likely faces a tough road ahead. Premiering on approximately 1500 screens, its only real hope to appeal to older moviegoers who recall the events from nearly a half century ago. I’ll project that only gets this to $2-$3 million.
Chappaquiddick opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
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