Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.
As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.
Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?
Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $82 million
3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
5. The Running Man
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
6. Eternity
Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (November 21-23)
Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.
Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.
In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.
Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.
Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.
We are only three days away from festival season beginning in earnest so let’s call these Oscar predictions the calm before the storm. And it’s certainly the last update before major changes will undoubtedly materialize.
Venice kicks off Wednesday where we get our first looks at numerous pictures listed below. That includes After the Hunt, Bugonia, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, A House of Dynamite, No Other Choice, The Smashing Machine, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Wizard of the Kremlin, Scarlet, and Below the Clouds to name a few. The Italian fest runs through September 6th.
On September 4th, the Toronto Film Festival gets underway. That’s right after Telluride plays over Labor Day weekend (their lineup will announce this week). The Canadian fest includes such high-profile contenders as Rental Family, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Hedda, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Christy, and The Lost Bus.
Keep an eye on this blog for scores of Oscar prediction posts over the next three weeks spotlighting these pics and more. As for this update – Picture, Director, and the four acting races remain the same. Even with that stability (for the moment), I’ll note some interesting developments:
The trailer for Daniel Day-Lewis’s first movie in eight years, Anemone, dropped. It was enough to almost put him in my Best Actor quintet as he rose three spots from 10th to 7th. His costar Sean Bean is also listed for the first time as a possibility in Supporting Actor.
Amy Madigan’s memorable (and creepy) supporting work in Weapons earns the actress her first mention in Supporting Actress. I have her in 8th, but don’t be surprised if she rises given the film’s box office success and the inevitable slides of performers currently ahead of her.
The first trailer for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme premiered. I now have it receiving the third most nominations behind Sinners and Wicked: For Good.
Ariana Grande’s Wicked: For Good turn is back at #1 in Supporting Actress with Ayo Edebiri (After the Hunt) dipping from 1st to 3rd. We’ll know soon enough via Venice whether Hunt is an across the board awards player or not. There’s some general skepticism which explains the pic’s drop in numerous categories including BP, the supporting fields, and its original screenplay.
You can read all the movement below and be assured that lots of speculation is coming in the days ahead!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Rental Family (PR: 10) (+2)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (E)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Hamnet (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (-1)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (E)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 22) (+4)
19. The Smashing Machine (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 18) (-2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 21) (E)
22. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 19) (-4)
24. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
F1
The Life of Chuck
Nouvelle Vague
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (E)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 12) (E)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (E)
14. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (-3)
15. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 10) (E)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 11) (E)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 13) (E)
14. Rebecca Ferguson, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 12) (E)
13. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skaragård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (E)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Sean Bean, Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 12) (+1)
12. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Anemone (PR: Not Ranked)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 13) (-1)
15. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 6) (E)
7. La grazia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 10) (+1)
10. SIrât (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
All That’s Left of You
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Scarlet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Arco (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 4) (E)
5. Below the Clouds (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Deaf President Now! (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Come See Me in the Good Light
Architection
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
After the Hunt
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Couture (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (E)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mother Mary
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Christy (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wolf Man
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (-1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-2)
9. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless
TBD from Zootopia 2
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (E)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (E)
5. F1 (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-2)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mickey 17
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Jay Kelly
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash
3 Nominations
Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, The Testament of Ann Lee
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Below the Clouds, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Left-Handed Girl, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
My first Oscar predictions in two weeks finds It Was Just an Accident (the Palme d’Or recipient at Cannes) moving back into my Best Picture top ten and its maker Jafar Panahi in the directorial quintet. This is at the expense of Frankenstein and its maker Guillermo del Toro. The acting derbies, meanwhile, remain unchanged as far as to the 20 nominees with festival season around the corner.
Starting in about three weeks – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto will start to clear a lot of this speculation up. I’ll sneak in another update in a couple weeks before the onslaught of screenings begin.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Hamnet (PR: 13) (-2)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 17) (+1)
17. No Other Choice (PR: 18) (+1)
18. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 16) (-2)
19. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 20) (+1)
20. The Smashing Machine (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (+3)
22. The Secret Agent (PR: 21) (-1)
23. F1 (PR: 19) (-4)
24. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Die, My Love
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (+3)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12 ) (E)
13. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, At the Sea
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (E)
15. Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 11) (E)
12. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-1)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 5) (-1)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Is This Thing On? (PR: 11) (-1)
13. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 15) (+2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ella McKay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (E)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (+3)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Smashing Machine (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Late Fame (PR: 15) (+2)
14. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Die, My Love (PR: 14) (-1)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Scarlet (PR: 5) (+3)
3. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Elio (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (E)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Architection (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Timestamp
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (E)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Wicked: For Good
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Couture (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. After the Hunt (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Wicked: For Good
Frankenstein
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
7. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. Christy (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Superman
Mother Mary
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. TBD from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 7) (-2)
10. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Warfare (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Superman (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
After the Hunt, Bugonia, Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Rental Family
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
Kiss of the Spider Woman, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, Zootopia 2
Over the past couple of weeks, the biggest developments in the Oscar estimating game has come courtesy of lineup announcements for the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. Some of these updates are cosmetic – Ann Lee is now The Testament of Ann Lee, The Ballad of a Small Player has dropped the The. Some titles including Anemone, Ella McKay, Is This Thing On?, and Klara and the Sun might be skipping the fest circuit altogether. Perhaps some of them will move to 2026. It appears Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is foregoing the circuit prior to its September bow, but PTA is known for skipping them. Same goes for Marty Supreme though that’s not too surprising considering the Christmas release. It’s worth noting any of the aforementioned titles could pop up in London or New York or Telluride. Some of these festival premieres are receiving release dates while trailers continue to roll out including Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt.
There are changes to discuss:
In BP, it is Avatar: Fire and Ash back in along with Hikari’s Rental Family for the first time. They take out Palme d’Or winner It Was Just an Accident and Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
In Director, two changes with Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia) and Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein) in my top five with Luca Guadagnino (After the Hunt) and Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) dropping.
In Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri’s work in After the Hunt elevates to #1 over Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), sliding to second. Mari Yamamoto (Rental Family) enters the projected quintet with Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value) now on the outside looking in.
A similar story in Supporting Actor with Akira Emoto (Rental Family) now predicted and Jeremy Strong from Springsteen now outside the high five.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Rental Family (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 20) (+5)
16. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (-2)
17. A House of Dynamite (PR: 16) (-1)
18. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (+1)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-3)
21. The Secret Agent (PR: 18) (-3)
22. The Smashing Machine (PR: 25) (+3)
23. The Life of Chuck (PR: 22) (-1)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (-4)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Hikari, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Emma Mackey, Ella McKay (PR: 10) (-1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 14) (-2)
13. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 12) (+6)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (E)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Thomasin McKenzie, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 11) (E)
12. Jude Law, The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (+1)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Is This Thing On? (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. The Secret Agent (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
14. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nouvelle Vague
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Train Dreams (PR: 13) (+8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-2)
7. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. The Wizard of the Kremlin (PR: Not Ranked)
13. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Late Fame (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (E)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6, Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Scarlet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (+1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 9) (E)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Seeds (PR: 3) (E)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Deaf President Now! (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Timestamp (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Alabama Solution
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Rental Family (PR: 8) (+4)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (E)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-2)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Bugonia (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. F1 (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+3)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. After the Hunt (PR: 4) (-5)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. 28 Years Later (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Christy (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 7) (E)
8. Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (second song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 8) (+1)
8. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 4) (-4)
9. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Mother Mary
“Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 6) (E)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Superman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Superman (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Tron: Ares (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (-3)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (E)
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Sentimental Value
7 Nominations
Bugonia, Frankenstein
6 Nominations
After the Hunt
5 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Rental Family
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Jay Kelly
3 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Kpop Demon Hunters, The Testament of Ann Lee, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Dead President Now!, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, Scarlet, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, Train Dreams, Tron: Ares, Zootopia 2
While there’s not a whole lot of movement with my Oscar predictions in the past ten days, there are notable changes in Actress and Supporting Actress.
In Actress, Amanda Seyfried’s work in Ann Lee surpasses Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. A switch-up in Supporting Actress now has Sentimental Value generating 10 nominations with Inga Ibsfotter Lilleass in and Angelina LookingGlass (The Rivals of Amziah King) out.
Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia is bumped to the top spot in Adapted Screenplay over Hamnet and you can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 12) (E)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hamnet (PR: 7) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 12) (E)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rental Family (PR: 20) (+5)
16. A House of Dynamite (PR: 18) (+2)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 16) (-1)
18. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-3)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (E)
20. Ann Lee (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Die, My Love (PR: 21) (E)
22. The Life of Chuck (PR: 23) (+1)
23. F1 (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Is This Thing On? (PR: 24) (E)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Edward Berger, The Ballad of a Small Player
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (E)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Sydney Sweeney, Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: Not Ranked)
14. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (E)
7. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (E)
12. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On?
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 12) (E)
13. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Miles Caton, Sinners (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rental Family (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (E)
11. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Ella McCay (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 14) (E)
15. Is This Thing On? (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bugonia (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Hamnet (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+2)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Die, My Love (PR: 11) (E)
12. Late Fame (PR: 12) (E)
13. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (-3)
14. Highest 2 Lowest (PR: 13) (-1)
15. The Smashing Machine (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The President’s Cake (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sound of Falling (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 9) (E)
10. All That’s Left of You (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zootopia 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Arco (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elio (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+3)
5. In Your Dreams (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Scarlet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Animal Farm (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Seeds (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Deaf President Now! (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Timestamp (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Six Billion Dollar Man
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-4)
7. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Nouvelle Vague (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (+1)
9. F1 (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Ann Lee (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Snow White (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mother Mary (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. After the Hunt (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (+1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. F1 (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Untitled Christy Martin Biopic (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 28 Years Later (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 3) (E)
4. Bugonia (PR: 2) (-2)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Rivals of Amziah King
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 3) (E)
4. TBD from Zootopia 2 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. TBD from Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Wicked: For Good (2nd song) (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Golden” from KPOP Demon Hunters (PR: Not Ranked)
8. “Relentless” from Diane Warren Relentless (PR: 7) (-1)
9. TBD from Mother Mary (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Steve’s Lava Chicken” from A Minecraft Movie (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
“Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Ann Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Marty Supreme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. F1 (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Superman (PR: 10) (+1)
10. One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 8) (E)
9. F1 (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sinners
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers in terms of nominations:
14 Nomnations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Sentimental Value, Wicked: For Good
8 Nominations
After the Hunt, Frankenstein
7 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Bugonia
5 Nominations
Hamnet
4 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominatons
Kiss of the Spider Woman, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
1 Nomination
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Ann Lee, Arco, Cutting Through Rocks, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, F1, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, In Your Dreams, A Magnificent Life, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The President’s Cake, The Rivals of Amziah King, The Secret Agent, Seeds, The Smashing Machine. Superman
No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.
Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.
As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.
The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).
Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.
Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.
Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.
Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…
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