Tag: Cillian Murphy

77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Make-Up & Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Napoleon

Runner-Up: The Creator

Outstanding British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Rising Star

Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

5 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

Anatomy of a Fall

1 Win

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Rustin

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo as Rustin. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Colman Domingo:

As the principal organizer of the March for Freedom Rally, Domingo’s turn as Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix biopic was identified early on as Academy bait. He’s been nominated in all the key precursors: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It’s been a year of significant exposure with this, his supporting turn in The Color Purple, and the lead in Sing Sing (which premiered at Toronto and could garner awards attention for him next year).

The Case Against Colman Domingo:

The film itself did not become a contender in other categories. Domingo’s nod marks its sole nomination and he’s the only hopeful in Actor from a movie not up for BP. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have emerged in the forerunning contests.

The Verdict:

Given the fact that Rustin never really approached BP vying status, it’s impressive that Domingo checked off all the major ceremonies (leaving Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon on the outside looking in). Don’t expect a rally of support for a major upset win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple…

Oscars: The Case of Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Supporting Actress quintet and it starts with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Emily Blunt:

Despite an impressive filmography covering dramas, action/adventure pics, family fare, and horror hits – from Sicario and Edge of Tomorrow to A Quiet Place to Mary Poppins Returns and Jungle Cruise – Blunt has somehow never nabbed an Oscar nod until now for the BP frontrunner. That’s despite her six Golden Globes noms for feature films and four SAG mentions. There could be an overdue vibe occurring and Oppenheimer‘s coattails could be large. As the alcoholic wife of the title character, she’s landed recognition in key precursors like the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Emily Blunt:

The Globes and Critics Choice have gone with Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers and she is certainly the favorite. A SAG or BAFTA victory win may be needed to show any strength. Voters may honor her costars Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. in their races and that might feel like enough.

The Verdict:

For quite some time, I had Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) as the runner-up to Randolph. I’d say the spot belongs to Blunt now. However, nothing has happened yet to show that Randolph is vulnerable.

My Case Of Posts will continue with Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction…

Oscars: The Case of Bradley Cooper in Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Actor quintet and it starts with Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Silver Linings Playbook (2012, Actor); American Hustle (2013, Supporting Actor); American Sniper (2014, Actor); A Star Is Born (2018, Actor)

The Case for Bradley Cooper:

For his portrayal of the legendary EGOT recipient Leonard Bernstein in the Netflix production, Mr. Cooper has been nominated for BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes. There could also be the feeling that he’s overdue as this marks his fifth acting nod with no hardware to show for it (just like Annette Bening in Nyad per my previous post).

The Case Against Bradley Cooper:

He didn’t win the Globe or Critics Choice as Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have split the prizes so far. While Maestro had a decent nomination morning, Cooper was not recognized for his direction. That’s what happened in 2018 when he got the Actor mention for Star (he would lose to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody), but not his behind the camera work. Of all the BP contenders, this has the lowest RT rating and there’s a feeling among some that Cooper is trying too hard in Maestro for the gold.

The Verdict:

Cooper is third behind Murphy and Giamatti. I don’t think his victory is an impossibility. Yet it looks to be a long shot unless he scores an upset at SAG or BAFTA. In other words, the O in EGOT should still be unfulfilled.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer…

Oscars: The Case of Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. I’ve already covered six of the BP nominees. They are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer.

The Case for Oppenheimer:

Since it debuted last summer, the biopic of the “father of the atomic bomb” stood out as a massive awards player. It has a director who’s considered overdue for Oscar recognition. There’s widespread critical acclaim. And it’s an opportunity for the Academy to recognize a pic that general audiences flocked to (nearly a billion worldwide). The 13 nominations are the most of any film and it has already taken top honors at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice. The other nods are for Nolan in Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt), Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, and Sound. I would contend it has a real shot at picking up gold for at least 8 of them, in addition to BP.

The Case Against Oppenheimer:

There’s no doubt that it’s the frontrunner. And sometimes being the frontrunner causes a backlash that begets an upset. Usually the movie with the most nods doesn’t take BP (it’s only happened 3 out of the last 10 years with Birdman, The Shape of Water, and Everything Everywhere All at Once).

The Verdict:

Yes, there’s always the chance for a shocker. The Holdovers looms as a spoiler and perhaps the huge press generated by the Barbie snubs could propel it to a BP victory. Poor Things has its ardent supporters. That said, Oppenheimer is the far and away favorite for this and other prizes on March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with Past Lives…

Oscars: The Case of American Fiction
Oscars: The Case of Anatomy of a Fall
Oscars: The Case of Barbie
Oscars: The Case of The Holdovers
Oscars: The Case of Killers of the Flower Moon
Oscars: The Case of Maestro

96th Academy Awards Nominations Reaction

And they’re out! After a year of speculation, nominees for the 96th Academy Awards have been released. It was a morning where it felt weird that the 10 Best Picture contenders were relatively easy to project… and that it went according to script. However, the Academy’s picks veered off-script elsewhere as they always do.

I went 84 for 105 overall. Let’s walk through each race one by one with who got in, how I did, and some quick initial thoughts. As I have every year, I will do individual Case Of posts for the hopefuls in Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. That will kick off very soon…

Picture

Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 10/10

Oscar BP matches the PGA ten, as we all suspected. This was, frankly, one of the easiest lineups to project in years. That said, there was a sneaking suspicion that voters would surprise us with a sleeper pick or two. It didn’t materialize and Oppenheimer (leading the charge with 13 noms) is out front.

Director

Nominees: Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/5

Triet makes the cut over Greta Gerwig for Barbie. Now would be a good time to mention that Barbie underperformed. It was anticipated to land double digit noms and managed 8. Nolan is the favorite.

Actress

Nominees: Annette Bening (Nyad), Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 4/5

Bening as Nyad jumps into the Actress pool instead of Margot Robbie as Barbie in another high profile omission for 2023’s biggest blockbuster. This should come down to Gladstone vs. Stone, but I wouldn’t completely discount a Hüller upset.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

How I Did: 5/5

Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon seemed to lose steam in the last couple of weeks and that played out as I anticipated. Despite its 10 mentions, Killers had some significant misses this morning. As for those in contention, Giamatti vs. Murphy with Cooper as a potential spoiler.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), America Ferrera (Barbie), Jodie Foster (Nyad), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 3/5

Blunt, Brooks, and Randolph all seemed safe and those last two slots were a bear to figure. Ferrera and Foster are in over Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), who missed the chance to become the Academy’s 13th double acting nominee. Randolph will be tough to beat.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

How I Did: 5/5

I’ll pat myself on the back for this one since this was arguably as tricky as Supporting Actress. Downey Jr. is in the lead.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro (which had a good morning) over Saltburn (which came up empty-handed). I’d look for Holdovers to take this though Anatomy is a threat.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

In one of the more unexpected developments, Killers misses this in favor of Zone. This is a difficult race to project. I would say everything but Zone has a chance.

International Feature Film

Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Capitano and Lounge instead of Fallen Leaves and Tótem. Since Zone is the sole contender for BP, this is one of the simplest categories to call.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

Dreams over Suzume as the animated race should come down to Heron and Spider-Man.

Documentary Feature

Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

How I Did: 3/5

This is always a tricky competition to figure out. Bobi and Tiger make the quintet over Beyond Utopia (a surprising miss) and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie. Projecting the winner is easier as Mariupol is the odds on favorite.

Cinematography

Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Conde over Zone of Interest as Oppenheimer looks to emerge.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Napoleon instead of The Color Purple (which can only claim 1 nomination for Supporting Actress). Barbie vs. Poor Things is the contest.

Film Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

I thought Maestro might make it and left off Poor Things. Worth noting that this is another Barbie miss. Oppenheimer is the one to pick.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow

How I Did: 4/5

I had Killers and not Snow. This category represents Maestro‘s strongest shot at a victory.

Original Score

Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Fiction and Destiny over Society of the Snow and The Zone of Interest. Now would be a good time to mention that Fiction had a nice haul today with 5. This is Oppenheimer‘s to lose.

Original Song

Nominees: “The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot, “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie, “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony, “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

How I Did: 4/5

Despite missing Documentary Feature, the tune from American Symphony is nominated over “Road to Freedom” from Rustin. This category may represent Barbie‘s likeliest trophy as it has a double shot. “What Was I Made For?” has the edge. And, of course, “Flamin’ Hot” marks yet another nom for Diane Warren.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 5/5

Another Barbie vs. Poor Things derby.

Sound

Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

The Creator and Mission are unexpected double nominees. For Sound, they’re in over Ferrari (which was blanked) and Napoleon. This is one of the easiest ones to call… Oppenheimer.

Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon

How I Did: 3/5

Unlike Sound, this is one of the hardest categories to project. Mission and Napoleon make the five instead of Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (which was held to just Animated Feature). Maybe The Creator is the pick, but I could easily change my mind.

All this activity means these movies ended up with these numbers of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

8 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro

5 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest

3 Nominations

Napoleon

2 Nominations

The Creator, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Nyad, Past Lives, Society of the Snow

1 Nomination

American Symphony, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, The Color Purple, El Conde, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Io Capitano, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Robot Dreams, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Teachers’ Lounge, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol

96th Academy Awards FINAL Nominations Predictions

Starting about 365 days ago with the Sundance Film Festival, my speculation of the nominees for the 96th Academy Awards kicked off. As it does each year, dozens of predictions posts followed.

And now… after clues from the Golden Globes, SAG, PGA, DGA, Critics Choice, BAFTA, regional critics groups, and good ole fashioned gut feelings, my FINAL projections are here! They will be out Tuesday and I’ll have a recap up that evening.

The speculations ends here. With each race, I’m giving you my selections along with a runner-up and a second runner-up. Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Color Purple

2nd Alternate: Saltburn

Best Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

1st Alternate: Alexander Payne, The Holdovers

2nd Alternate: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Best Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Greta Lee, Past Lives

2nd Alternate: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

1st Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Best Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

1st Alternate: Jodie Foster, Nyad

2nd Alternate: Julianne Moore, May December

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

1st Alternate: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

1st Alternate: Maestro

2nd Alternate: Air

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Origin

Best International Feature

Fallen Leaves

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

Tótem

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: The Taste of Things

2nd Alternate: The Teachers’ Lounge

Best Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Suzume

1st Alternate: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

2nd Alternate: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Best Documentary Feature

20 Days in Mariupol

Beyond Utopia

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

1st Alternate: American Symphony

2nd Alternate: Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project

Best Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Barbie

2nd Alternate: El Conde

Best Costume Design

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Napoleon

2nd Alternate: Maestro

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Barbie

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: Society of the Snow

2nd Alternate: The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Best Original Score

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2nd Alternate: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie

“Road to Freedom” from Rustin

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie

1st Alternate: “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony

2nd Alternate: “Quiet Eyes” from Past Lives

Best Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

1st Alternate: The Zone of Interest

2nd Alternate: Asteroid City

Best Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

1st Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

Best Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1st Alternate: Poor Things

2nd Alternate: Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning

And that means I’m predicting these movies generate these numbers in terms of nominations:

13 Nominations

Oppenheimer

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

10 Nominations

Poor Things

9 Nominations

Barbie

7 Nominations

Maestro, The Zone of Interest

5 Nominations

The Holdovers

4 Nominations

American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall

2 Nominations

The Color Purple, Ferrari, Napoleon, Past Lives, Rustin, Society of the Snow, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, Beyond Utopia, The Boy and the Heron, The Creator, Elemental, The Eternal Memory, Fallen Leaves, Flamin’ Hot, Four Daughters, Godzilla Minus One, Golda, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, May December, Nimona, Perfect Days, Saltburn, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Suzume, Tótem

77th BAFTA Nominations Reaction

The BAFTAs, the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the Oscars, unveiled their nominations six days before the Academy has their turn. In short… the BAFTAs always BAFTA. That means there were some baffling omissions in some major competitions that could alter the thinking of prognosticators when it comes to their Oscar forecasts. Then again… the BAFTAs have a history of going their own way that doesn’t necessarily have a connection to what the Academy ultimately decides. I went 85 for 119 in my guesstimates for BAFTA.

Let’s walk each race one by one with the nominees, how I performed, and some quick thoughts.

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Barbie failed to make the cut with The Holdovers (which had a very impressive morning) sliding in. This is likely Oppenheimer‘s race to lose.

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

How I Did: 4/6

Here’s where the shockers begin. Cooper and Payne are in over Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Marty’s exclusion is especially surprising. As with Film – Mr. Nolan is looking strong.

Actress

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

How I Did: 3/6

More unforeseen action as Barrino, Oparah, and Robbie (my alternate) appear here instead of Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon), Greta Lee (Past Lives), and Mia McKenna-Bruce (How to Have Sex). In perhaps the story of the day, Gladstone falling off is truly astonishing as she’s been seen by many (including me) as the #1 option for the Oscar in Actress. For BAFTA, Stone might be the smart choice and you can anticipate some writers switching her to the top spot over Gladstone at Oscar.

Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

How I Did: 4/6

Despite no love for Past Lives in the categories above, Teo Yeo is in along with Domingo in place of Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers). Scott’s omission at BAFTA, to me, is more unexpected than Leo missing. Murphy might be out front, but Giamatti (especially considering The Holdovers overperformance) is a factor. For that matter, Maestro also had a solid showing and Cooper could get a win here.

Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 5/6

Hüller, who was my alternate pick, is a double nominee. I went with Cara Jade Myers for Flower Moon. Randolph has been sweeping the season thus far and will look to continue that.

Supporting Actor

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

How I Did: 4/6

Elordi and Sessa in over Anthony Hopkins (One Life) and Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things). It’s worth noting that this is Ruffalo’s second major miss after SAG. Downey Jr. has taken GG and CCA and looks to keep the streak alive.

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

How I Did: 4/5

Maestro finds a slot over my Saltburn call. Considering how The Holdovers performed, I’d put it out front with Anatomy lurking.

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Now would be a good time to mention that Zone had a fine day despite missing Best Film. It’s in here over Flower Moon in another snub for Scorsese’s epic. This is a tricky race and I’m not ready to declare a frontrunner.

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

How I Did: 2/5

Since there’s no Oscar competition for this one, it’s always a crapshoot figuring this out and it shows. Anatomy, How to, and Holdovers are named and I picked Barbie, Oppenheimer (a rare category which it missed), and Saltburn.

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 3/4

As with all animated derbies for 2023, it’s Heron vs. Spider-Man. The former could have the edge at BAFTA, but either could be victorious. I had Nimona instead of Elemental.

British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 9/10

My alt Oak makes the ten over One Life. Maybe Poor Things gets this since it’s the only Best Film entry. However, I wouldn’t discount Strangers or Zone.

Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

How I Did: 1/5

Ouch. Only got How to Have Sex listed correctly so I guess I’ll say it wins (especially considering its impressive performance elsewhere). I wrongly had The End We Start From, Police Society, Rye Lane, and Scrapper.

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 3/5

Mariupol and Snow over The Boy and the Heron and Fallen Leaves. Anatomy is probably a slight favorite over Zone.

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox, Wham!

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

I’ll admit I didn’t think this would be one of my 2 perfect calls. Considering its inclusion in the international race, Mariupol is a decent bet for the trophy.

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did 4/5

Maestro over Saltburn. Think Oppenheimer.

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 4/5

Killers over Wonka. Think Barbie or Poor Things.

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 5/5 (!)

This is Oppenheimer.

Makeup and Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

How I Did: 3/5

Barbie and Priscilla are no-shows while Killers and Napoleon materialize. This should be Maestro.

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Saltburn in over Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (which missed both races I projected it in). Think Oppenheimer.

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

My alt Zone in over Napoleon. This should be Barbie or Poor Things.

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

How I Did: 4/5

Mission over Napoleon. Bank on an Oppenheimer win.

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon, Poor Things

How I Did: 2/5

Ouch on this one. We know now that Oppenheimer will not be a nominee in VE for BAFTA or Oscar. Indiana Jones, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man out in favor of my alt Guardians, Mission, and Napoleon. Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe Creator or Poor Things is the pick.

That all works out to these movies contending for these numbers of BAFTAs:

13 Noininations

Oppenheimer

11 Nominations

Poor Things

10 Nominations

The Zone of Interest

9 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

The Holdovers, Maestro

6 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall

5 Nominations

Barbie, Saltburn

4 Nominations

Napoleon

3 Nominations

How to Have Sex, Past Lives

2 Nominations

20 Days in Mariupol, The Color Purple, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One, Rye Lane, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

1 Nomination

American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Creator, Earth Mama, Elemental, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Is There Anybody Out There?, The Old Oak, Rustin, Scrapper, Society of the Snow, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!, Wonka

I’ll have winner predictions up for shortly before the BAFTA ceremony on Sunday, February 18th.

77th BAFTA Nominations Predictions

This Thursday, nominations for the British Academy Film Awards (commonly known as BAFTA) will be unveiled prior to its February 18th airdate. After a busy precursor frame this past week, all eyes will be on BAFTA as we finalize our Oscar forecast for the big announcement in seven days.

As I do with other precursors, I’m giving you my picks along with an alternate. With the BAFTAs, there’s a mix of numbers for the races. Most are five though directing and the acting derbies are six with ten for Outstanding British Film and 4 for Animated Feature.

Got all that? Let’s get to it!

Film

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Director

Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

Alternate: Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Actress

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flowe Moon

Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Greta Lee, Past Lives

Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Alternate: Margot Robbie, Barbie

Actor

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Barry Keoghan, Saltburn

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers

Alternate: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Supporting Actress

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers

Cara Jade Myers, Killers of the Flower Moon

Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Alternate: Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Supporting Actor

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Anthony Hopkins, One Life

Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Alternate: Jamie Bell, All of Us Strangers

Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Past Lives

Saltburn

Alternate: How to Have Sex

Adapted Screenplay

All of Us Strangers

American Fiction

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Casting

All of Us Strangers

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Saltburn

Alternate: The Holdovers

Animated Feature

The Boy and the Heron

Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Nimona

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Elemental

British Film

All of Us Strangers

How to Have Sex

Napoleon

One Life

Poor Things

Rye Lane

Saltburn

Scrapper

Wonka

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: The Old Oak

Debut a British Writer, Director, or Producer

The End We Start From

How to Have Sex

Polite Society

Rye Lane

Scrapper

Alternate: Is There Anybody Out There?

Film Not in English Language

Anatomy of a Fall

The Boy and the Heron

Fallen Leaves

Past Lives

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Society of the Snow

Documentary

20 Days in Mariupol

American Symphony

Beyond Utopia

Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

Wham!

Alternate: The Pigeon Tunnel

Cinematography

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Maestro

Costume Design

Barbie

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Wonka

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Barbie

Makeup and Hair

Barbie

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Priscilla

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Original Score

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Saltburn

Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Alternate: The Zone of Interest

Sound

Ferrari

Maestro

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Alternate: Killers of the Flower Moon

Special Visual Effects

The Creator

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Alternate: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

That works out to the following number of nominations for these films:

15 Nominations

Oppenheimer

13 Nominations

Poor Things

12 Nominations

Killers of the Flower Moon

7 Nominations

All of Us Strangers, Barbie

6 Nominations

Anatomy of a Fall, Saltburn, The Zone of Interest

4 Nominations

Maestro, Napoleon

3 Nominations

The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Past Lives, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

2 Nominations

The Boy and the Heron, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, One Life, Rye Lane, Scrapper, Wonka

1 Nomination

20 Days in Mariupol, American Fiction, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, The Color Purple, The Creator, The End We Start From, Fallen Leaves, Ferrari, Nimona, Polite Society, Priscilla, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

29th Critics Choice Awards Reaction

Last Sunday, the Golden Globes were more the Oppenheimer show than a Barbenheimer love fest. One week later, the 29th Critics Choice Awards was more of a celebration for 2023’s acclaimed blockbusters that will forever be linked. Both managed to win in races I didn’t pick them in. Yet they arguably came up short in competitions where they were anticipated to emerge victorious. In addition to the impressive hardware picked up by the aforementioned pics, it was a pleasing night for The Holdovers. As for Killers of the Flower Moon or Maestro… not so much.

Barbenheimer accounted for 14 of the 21 wins this evening. That would be Oppenheimer with 8 and Barbie with 6. As for this blogger, I went 15 for 21 in my selections.

As anticipated, Oppenheimer is your Best Picture with Christopher Nolan as Best Director (just like the Globes). Same goes for Robert Downey Jr. in Supporting Actor as he’s established himself as the favorite for Oscar. It also won Acting Ensemble and I had Barbie taking that instead. The other four trophies: Cinematography, Editing, Score, and Visual Effects. For VE, Oppenheimer shockingly missed the shortlist for the Oscars. I picked Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse for Critics Choice (it did win Animated Feature as projected). Simply put, Oppenheimer is very well positioned for Oscar’s big prize.

Moving onto Barbie, it took home Original Screenplay. As you may be aware, it is slotted in Adapted Screenplay at the Academy Awards. Greta Gerwig’s phenomenon also won Comedy, Costume Design, Hair and Makeup (in a surprise win over the favored Maestro), Production Design, and Song. In another slight shock, “I’m Just Ken” was the honored tune over “What Was Made I For?”.

As for The Holdovers, all three prominent performers in the cast went home with an engraved reminder of their attendance. Paul Giamatti is Best Actor and I picked him in a coin flip over Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer). It sets up a real race for that leading derby. Da’Vine Joy Randolph continued to solidify her dominance in Supporting Actress while Dominic Sessa is your Young Actor/Actress recipient.

We also have some drama in Best Actress. Emma Stone’s work in Poor Things won out over Globe victor Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I got that wrong and it contributed to a night where Killers came up 0 for 12.

In other races: Adapted Screenplay went to American Fiction. I thought it would be Killers and this competition at the Oscars (where Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things should also be in the mix) is unpredictable.

Anatomy of a Fall, while not in contention for International Feature Film at the Oscars, is the Foreign Language Film selection (Globes went with it too). That’s one more award to help its chance of making the ten BP nominees.

My main takeaway: Oppenheimer, Nolan, Downey Jr., and Randolph might be sweeping. Best Actor and Actress look more competitive. For the former, it’s Giamatti vs. Murphy (with Bradley Cooper in Maestro still a potential spoiler). In Actress, it’s Gladstone vs. Stone.

Keep an eye on the blog for my final Oscar predictions later this week!