Oscar Predictions: The Color Purple

The Color Purple has existed for over four decades via book (by Alice Walker), film (Steven Spielberg’s 1985 adaptation), and Broadway play (beginning in 2005). At each turn, it’s generated awards attention. The book won a Pulitzer. The first cinematic rendering landed 11 Academy nominations (though it didn’t win any of them). The first iteration of the play also managed 11 Tony nods and a single victory in lead actress while the 2015 revival nabbed four nominations and two trophies (including Cynthia Erivo in lead actress).

On Christmas Day, the screen treatment of the stage musical arrives in theaters. Blitz Bazawule directs with a cast including Fantasia Barrino, Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who played Sofia in the ’85 adaptation) are producers.

Given the awards heavy past of the source material, Purple has been seen as a potentially significant Oscar hopeful since the project was announced. The review embargo has lapsed (rather late I must say) with a solid 85% Rotten Tomatoes score.

That said, much of the critical reaction is of the *** variety and not ****. Perhaps the biggest snub of the Golden Globe nominations was this not receiving a mention in Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy). Days later, the Critics Choice nods threw Purple a lifeline when it made their Top 10 features.

Any way you cut it, Purple‘s inclusion in the Oscar BP ten is far from certain. I had it listed at #10 in my latest round of predictions on Sunday. If this manages to make the SAG quintet when their nominations are announced for Best Ensemble, that would be another feather in its cap. Though don’t be surprised at all if it misses the BP cut. Bazawule’s direction is highly unlikely to be mentioned (even Spielberg couldn’t get in that race nearly 40 years back). Same goes for the Adapted Screenplay.

Purple will manage to get other nominations. The most certain is Danielle Brooks for Supporting Actress. For months, I had her listed in 1st to win but I recently switched the top spot to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Brooks is playing the same role Winfrey played and got an Academy nod for. In 1985, Whoopi Goldberg was nominated for Actress as Celie. Fantasia Barrino hopes to replicate that success. It’s doable, but competition is fierce. I had her in 7th place on the outside looking in last weekend. 7th place is also where I had Taraji P. Henson in Supporting Actress as Shug. Margaret Avery was nominated for her portrayal in ’85 though Henson has already missed key precursors like the Globes and Critics Choice.

Finally, there are down the line races where it could pop up. This includes Original Song (“Keep It Movin”), Production Design, and Costume Design. It won’t generate 11 mentions like the Spielberg pic. Four or five is more feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Color Purple Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (12/21): I am increasing my The Color Purple one-day projection from $7.9M to $12.9M

An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was adapted from the 1985 Steven Spielberg film that was adapted from the Alice Walker novel, The Color Purple is out in theaters Christmas Day. The awards hopeful’s cast includes Fantasia Barrino (reprising her role from the play), Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Ciara, Halle Bailey, Aunjanue Ellis, Jon Batiste, Louis Gossett Jr., and David Alan Grier. Blitz Bazawule directs with Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey (who first rose to fame in the ’85 version) producing.

The source material is obviously well-known as this hopes to attract moviegoers on the big holiday. Christmas is on a Monday in 2023 so this projection is only for that day. Obviously that limits the estimate, but that’s not the only limiting factor. Purple has not generated the Oscar buzz that it’s probably hoped for (though Brooks is a threat to win Supporting Actress). Its inclusion in Best Picture is very much in question (it missed a Golden Globe nod earlier this week).

This should still succeed in bringing an African-American and female audience. I’m anticipating its initial day could see a gross in the higher single digits as it hopes to perform well throughout the end of the year and January.

The Color Purple opening day prediction: $12.9 million (Monday estimate only)

For my Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom prediction, click here:

For my Migration prediction, click here:

For my The Iron Claw prediction, click here:

For my Anyone but You prediction, click here:

For my Poor Things prediction, click here:

For my Ferrari prediction, click here:

For my The Boys in the Boat prediction, click here:

For my Salaar: Part 1 – Ceasefire prediction, click here:

Top Ten Summer Music Hits of 2005: A Look Back

We’ve arrived at day three of my look back at the top 10 Billboard Summer Songs from the past 30 years, 20 years and tonight – from 10 years ago. If you missed my first two posts, they should be linked at the bottom of this here post. As with the previous entries, I’ll offer my thoughts on each track on a scale of 1 (summertime blues) to 10 (summertime classic). And I’ll reveal the all important answer as to whether said song is on my iTunes.

Let’s get to it with the ten most listened to songs of summer 2005:

10. “You and Me” by Lifehouse

OK, the list isn’t starting out so well. I’ve never been a fan of this band and “You and Me” (which I had completely forgotten about) didn’t change that. Listless and dull pop rock.

My Rating: 3

Is It On My iTunes? No

9. “Let Me Hold You” by Bow Wow featuring Omarion

The Columbus based rapper dropped the Lil from his name and entered grown folks territory with this R&B flavored ditty that samples Luther Vandross. It’s a perfectly passable radio diversion that is easily forgotten.

My Rating: 6

Is It On My iTunes? No

8. “Just a Lil Bit” by 50 Cent

Two years prior, 50 had a hip hop classic with “In Da Club”. This one isn’t close to that classic but it’s a pretty good effort from Mr. Cent.

My Rating: 6 and a half

Is It On My iTunes? No

7. “Lose Control” by Missy Elliot featuring Ciara and Fat Man Scoop

Now we’re getting somewhere! This is a genuine club banger from Missy and her brilliant producer Timbaland. Sounds as fresh today as it did a decade ago.

My Rating: 9 and a half

Is It On My iTunes? Yes

6. “Pon De Replay” by Rihanna

This is how it all started for superstar Rihanna and her debut single is a reggae influenced dancehall jam. Even better work would follow, but this was a nice start.

My Rating: 7 and a half

Is It On My iTunes? Yes

5. “Don’t Phunk With My Heart” by The Black Eyed Peas

The first single off their album Monkey Business, “Phunk” employs the sound we’ve come to expect from BEP. It’s goes down well and is easy to dance to, but this is not among their very best work.

My Rating: 7

Is It On My iTunes? No

4. “Behind These Hazel Eyes” by Kelly Clarkson

The inaugural American Idol champion followed up the massive “Since U Been Gone” with another tailor made hit to belt out alone in the car and only feel slightly guilty about it.

My Rating: 7 and a half

Is It On My iTunes? No

3. “Don’t Cha” by The Pussycat Dolls featuring Busta Rhymes

The group may have been manufactured but this single is a pop gem with a rap assist by Busta Rhymes that came from producer Cee-Lo Green.

My Rating: 8

Is It On My iTunes? No, but it should be

2. “Hollaback Girl” by Gwen Stefani

You might have grown sick of it, but this Pharrell produced infectious groove was a monster hit for a reason. It’s impossible to forget, especially that addictive chorus from No Doubt’s lead singer.

My Rating: 9 and a half

Is It On My iTunes? Yes

1. “We Belong Together” by Mariah Carey

It was a juggernaut of a song and a major comeback for Miss Mariah. It’s a slow tempo and simply produced track and there’s nothing really wrong with it, but it’s far from one of my favorite tunes from her.

My Rating: 6 and a half

Is It On My iTunes? No

And there you have it! The summer songs of 2005. I hope you enjoyed reading my throwback look back at the seasonal hits of 1985, 1995 and 2005.