Box Office Predictions: August 18-20

Mid August at the box office comes with some star power as two new pictures open competing for the same audience: Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Steven Soderbergh’s heist action comedy Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/the-hitmans-bodyguard-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/logan-lucky-box-office-prediction/

The newbies could find themselves in a battle for the #1 spot. Lucky is winning on the reviews side with a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes while Bodyguard stands at 55%. However, my inkling is that Mr. Reynolds will edge out Mr. Tatum with a gross in the mid to higher teens with Lucky in the lower teens.

There’s also the matter of Annabelle: Creation, which got off to a strong start this past weekend (more on that below). If Bodyguard and Lucky both underwhelm, the demonic doll has a slight chance to repeat at #1. However, the horror prequel is likely to suffer a drop in the mid to high 50s. If it all pans out as I see it, we will have our fourth weekend of 2017 where no movie manages to top $20 million.

The rest of the top five should be filled out by holdovers Dunkirk and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature in its second frame after a weak start.

Lastly, the Taylor Sheridan directed thriller Wind River with Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen is slated to expand to approximately 600-700 screens. It’s been performing well with critics and in limited release. If that screen count holds true, I’d peg it at $3.1 million this weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

2. Annabelle: Creation

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. Logan Lucky

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Dunkirk

Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

Annabelle: Creation scared up some solid business taking in $35 million (beating my $31.4M forecast) to easily place #1. The horror prequel fell just shy of the $37.1 million accomplished by its 2014 predecessor and keeps the Conjuring universe chugging right along.

Dunkirk remained in second with $10.8 million (I was a touch higher at $11.7M). It’s made $153M thus far.

Family audiences largely rejected The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which debuted in third to just $8.3 million (under my $12.2M prediction). The sequel made less than half of the $19 million achieved out of the gate by the 2014 original. Opening on over 4000 screens, it had a per screen average of just over $2,000. On the bright side, parents who did take their kids to see it probably had plenty of room to roam about the theater. Ouch.

The Dark Tower went from first to fourth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M). bringing its lackluster two-week tally to only $34M.

Girls Trip placed fifth with $6.4 million (I projected $7.2M) as it stands at $97M and should cross the century mark this week.

The Emoji Movie was #6, also with $6.4 million (I said $6M) for a $63M total.

Finally, Brie Larson drama The Glass Castle had a respectable debut in ninth with $4.6 million (I was close at $4.2M). On a relatively small 1400+ screens, it actually achieved the second highest per screen average of the top ten.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Logan Lucky Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/17): I am revising my Logan Lucky prediction down to $10.5 million on the eve of its debut.

The eclectic Steven Soderbergh is back in theaters with heist comedy Logan Lucky, debuting next weekend. It marks the director’s first theatrical release in four and a half years since Side Effects and first picture altogether since 2013’s Behind the Candelabra which premiered on HBO.

Lucky is headlined by many familiar faces, including Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Daniel Craig (getting raves for the role), Seth MacFarlane, Riley Keough, Katie Holmes, Hilary Swank, Katherine Waterston, Dwight Yoakam, and Sebastian Stan. Reviews have been quite pleasing and it stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes, being frequently compared to the Ocean‘s trilogy that Soderbergh made.

Even with the solid reviews and a NASCAR tie-in (the film’s heist takes place at a race), there could be some issues with this completely breaking out. There is direct competition in the form of The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and it’s more likely to debut a bit higher. The mid August release date is also not one that lends itself well to openings above $20 million.

I’ll predict Lucky‘s number falls in the low to possibly mid teens, as it will hope to leg out well in future weekends (and may well do so).

Logan Lucky opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Hitman’s Bodyguard prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/the-hitmans-bodyguard-box-office-prediction/

The Hitman’s Bodyguard Box Office Prediction

Deadpool may never appear in an Avengers film, but he costars with Nick Fury next weekend when The Hitman’s Bodyguard opens. The action comedy brings together Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and looks to target the #1 spot over a rival competing for a similar audience. Patrick Hughes directs with Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek in the supporting cast.

It’s been a year and a half since the star power of Mr. Reynolds went way up with the aforementioned Deadpool. Since then, he’s appeared in supporting roles in Criminal and Life (both box office disappointments). Bodyguard, however, is his first headlining role since his winter 2016 blockbuster.

The pic could somewhat benefit from the dog days of August release and scarce competition – with one notable exception. Another action comedy with some big names – Steven Soderbergh’s Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig – debuts against it and it’s getting solid reviews. Lucky could charm some viewers away, but the net result could be slightly lower numbers for both because they’re directly competing against each other.

I’ll say Bodyguard manages to come out on top with a debut in the mid to high teens, which should be good for the top spot.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million

For my Logan Lucky prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/09/logan-lucky-box-office-prediction/

Hail, Caesar! Movie Review

Joel and Ethan Coen seem to be struggling with ambivalence to the film industry in their latest, Hail, Caesar! It takes place in the early 1950s when the studios had their own struggles with the impending explosion of television threatening their existence. Capitol Pictures production head Eddie Mannix (Josh Brolin) spends his days and nights putting out fires with damaged actors, directors, and other assorted players. He has an offer on the table for a nice everyday job with Lockheed and his decision whether to stay or go is treated (quite literally) as one of Biblical proportions.

The film’s title is one shared with a Roman epic meant to be Capitol’s blockbuster of the year. It stars Baird Whitlock and he’s played by George Clooney in a welcome continuation of the actor playing extraordinarily dumb guys in the Coen universe. These directors either realized years ago that Clooney excels in these roles or have secret contempt for him. It’s probably the former. Baird is kidnapped by a group of gentlemen who are either underpaid and frustrated screenwriters, Communist sympathizers, or both. His return to the set means a handsome ransom paid by Capitol.

That is just one of many issues that Mannix deals with during his workday. They include the synchronized swimming Esther Williams type starlet (Scarlett Johansson) whose squeaky clean image is polar opposite from the real story. And the Western crooning leading man (Alden Ehrenreich) clumsily trying his hand at serious drama.

Much of this simply appears to be an excuse for the brothers from Minnesota to play around with genres popular in the era. Channing Tatum pops up as a tap dancing sailor making an energetic and silly musical. The works of the aforementioned movie stars lets the Coens give us scenes from Westerns, Bible epics, and aquamusicals. Fans of the period will almost certainly appreciate it all more than those unfamiliar.

Certain performances stand out. Some of the more recognizable faces (Johansson, Jonah Hill as a studio problem fixer) are given little material. Lesser known Ehrenreich is quite a find and he shares a very funny sequence with an exasperated director  played by Ralph Fiennes. Tilda Swinton is on point in a dual role as haughty twin gossip columnists.

The overall theme is of Mannix’s wondering if his crazy job is inconsequential. You get the feeling from time to time if it’s the Coens thinking that themselves. We saw it in 2008’s superior Burn After Reading, a picture that concluded with a conversation about its own unnecessary existence. That also seemed to serve as a statement about the spy thrillers it was sending up. Here the message is a little murkier and quite a bit less humorous. Joel and Ethan Coen have certainly earned the right to do whatever they want and Hail, Caesar! still has plenty of moments that remind us why they’re such cinematic treasures. The ambivalence that I mentioned earlier that permeates their exercise here? We feel it a bit as well, however.

**1/2 (out of four)

Magic Mike XXL Movie Review

In 2012, I found Magic Mike to be a mostly effective star vehicle for Channing Tatum as a somewhat autobiographical tale of his dancing past. Somewhat surprisingly, he was able to enlist Oscar winning director Steven Soderbergh to bring it to the screen. While I recognize I was far from the film’s target audience, I was able to appreciate its fresh subject matter, even if the screenplay didn’t always deliver. Where it did – Tatum’s turn in the lead and a wildly entertaining supporting performance for Matthew McConaughey in the midst of his career resurgence.

His own Academy Awards glory and busy schedule keeps Mr. McConaughey out of Magic Mike XXL and the absence of his presence is not all right, all right, all right. Also gone is Magic Mike’s understudy Adam (Alex Pettyfer) and his sister Brooke (Cody Horn) who was our title character’s love interest. Gone too (kind of) is Soderbergh, who handed over directorial duties to Gregory Jacobs, but he still handles the cinematography and executive produces.

Watching XXL, I could never shake the feeling that this is a sequel its star and producers probably never figured they’d make. While the original brought audiences into a world you don’t often see portrayed on screen, XXL feels been there, done that with really nothing more to say. Many sequels have the odor of being completely unnecessary and this is one of them.

The pic starts three years after we last left Mike as he continues to get his custom furniture business off the ground. He’s hung up his G string and checked his signature dance moves while recently becoming single after being rebuffed by Brooke. Mike is soon lured back to his band of merry dude strippers for one last event (a Myrtle Beach convention) and their journey there leads to what could be dubbed Magic Mike: Road Trip!!

Along the way, this extremely episodic and poorly paced experience leads them to an African American club owned by an annoyingly overacting Jada Pinkett Smith, to a cougar filled house party that includes Andie MacDowell, and to Mike’s interacting with a new kind of, sort of love interest in an underwritten subplot with Amber Heard. The other boys in the group get perfunctory and dull storylines like Matt Bomer’s longed for singing career.

It all left me with one overall feeling: the world didn’t need a second dose of this. I guess everything about Magic Mike that needed to be said was done so in 2012 and this listless affair proves it. For the female (and male) fans of the original, perhaps the climactic dance grooves at the convention will merit its existence. My suggestion would be to just watch the first one again. It’s no masterpiece, but it almost looks like it compared to this.

*1/2 (out of four)

Hail, Caesar! Box Office Prediction

The Coen Brothers are back behind the camera with Hail, Caesar!, out next weekend and they’re bringing a star studded cast with them. The Hollywood set comedy features Josh Brolin, Coens regular George Clooney, Ralph Fiennes, Jonah Hill, Scarlett Johansson, Frances McDormand, Tilda Swinton, and Channing Tatum. Joel and Ethan have spent the last couple of years having their scripts (Unbroken, Bridge of Spies) produced rather than directing and it’s their first effort since 2013’s Inside Llewyn Davis. This marks their first feature to debut wide since megahit True Grit over five years ago.

Hail, Caesar! should be helped by its familiar face cast, but I don’t think that means it’ll open too much bigger than Coen comedies of the past dozen years. Both 2003’s Intolerable Cruelty (also starring Clooney) and 2004’s The Ladykillers started out with around $12 million. 2008’s Burn After Reading got off to a $19 million debut and it may have helped that it came hot on the heels of the directors’ Oscar winning No Country for Old Men. 

I’ll predict a gross in the mid teens looks most feasible here.

Hail, Caesar! opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million

For my Pride and Prejudice and Zombies prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/pride-and-prejudice-and-zombies-box-office-prediction/

For my The Choice prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/01/28/the-choice-box-office-prediction/

The Hateful Eight Movie Review

Quentin Tarantino’s “worst” picture is far better than most director’s best pictures and so it is with The Hateful Eight, his 8th effort (if you count the two Kill Bill’s as one). Incorporating aspects of Reservoir Dogs, Pulp Fiction, and a little Django Unchained and Kill Bill for good measure, Eight finally gave me a Quentin experience that I wouldn’t award four stars. That doesn’t mean it isn’t well worth the time – far from it. It just means it can’t quite measure up to what he’s given us for the last two decades plus.

The Hateful Eight could be a stage play and it wouldn’t surprise if it is someday. The pic takes place almost exclusively in a stagecoach and in a lodge known as Minnie’s Haberdashery sometime shortly after the Civil War. The stagecoach holds John “The Hangman” Ruth (Kurt Russell), who is transporting his prisoner Daisy Domergue (Jennifer Jason Leigh) to her execution in nearby Red Rock, Wyoming. Along the way they pick up company: bounty hunter and possible war hero Major Marquis Warren (Samuel L. Jackson) and former Confederate militia man Chris Mannix (Walton Goggins). Ruth is dubious of their separate appearances along the journey for two reasons: a nasty blizzard is approaching and there’s a $10,000 bounty on Daisy’s demented head. Nevertheless, they make it to the aforementioned Minnie’s where the owner is nowhere to be found. Instead, they find an old Confederate general (Bruce Dern), a Mexican (Demian Bichir) tasked with looking after the lodge, a mysterious cowboy (Michael Madsen) who claims he’s headed home for Christmas, and the man (Tim Roth) who just happens to the one that’s supposed to hang Daisy in a couple of days.

Inclement weather bounds these eight souls (and a couple more) together at Minnie’s and we soon learn that no one may be who they say they are. It sets up a nearly three hour mystery where the character’s motivations are constantly examined and reexamined. And in a true QT style, there are long monologues by the principles outlining their pasts and what they see going down in the future – with Jackson’s Warren often getting the juiciest and filthiest dialogue. Those of us (like me) who have truly loved the writer/director’s screenplays will relish so much here. We have an abundance of wicked humor mixed with menace. And those of us who cherish his stylized violence will find it in plentiful supply in spots. Heads explode as they should in this man’s oeuvre.

Tarantino knows better than most directors the importance of casting and he uses his company of regulars including Jackson, Roth, Madsen, and Russell (who gave one of the performances of his career in Quentin’s Death Proof) to fine effect. Yet it’s Goggins (who had a smaller role in Django Unchained) and Leigh who pretty much steal the proceedings. They are the characters among the eight whom you may find yourself thinking of the most when the lights come up.

As mentioned, the primarily claustrophobic proceedings are sometimes offset by glorious shots of the Western landscape courtesy of impeccable camerawork by Robert Richardson. There’s also a terrific Ennio Morricone score to boot (we also expect amazing music in QT’s pics and it’s here). The Hateful Eight is divided into chapters just as in Kill Bill and Inglourious Basterds. There’s time shifting like we’ve seen in many of his works. And for the first time, every once in a while it feels like a Tarantino “greatest hits” instead of a singular great movie. Most of the time, it just feels great for fans like me that put him on a higher pedestal than his contemporaries. There’s a reason for it. He deserves it. It may have taken 22 years for me to downgrade one of his pictures from four stars to something slightly less, but Quentin Tarantino and his dialogue are still a bloody treat.

***1/2 (out of four)

Magic Mike XXL Box Office Prediction

The boys are back on screen as Channing Tatum, Matt Bomer, and Joe Manganaiello return for Magic Magic XXL, the sequel to 2012’s surprise summer hit. Some of the personnel behind the blockbuster from three years earlier, like director Steven Soderbergh and costar Matthew McConaughey, are not returning and we have a new director (Gregory Jacobs) and additional new cast members (Elizabeth Banks and Amber Heard).

Clearly, though, the main draw is Tatum and his male stripper friends. Magic Mike took the box office by storm three years ago with a $39 million debut on its way to a $113 million domestic gross. As with the original, XXL will bank on female fans coming out in droves while their male counterparts keep themselves busy with Terminator Genisys. 

I believe it could be a close race between those two films for highest debut of the July 4th holiday weekend. Ultimately I believe Genisys will manage a better opening, but XXL could certainly over perform. With its long holiday weekend roll out, I wouldn’t be shocked to see its gross be somewhat front loaded. I’ll say it manages to earn slightly more in five days what its predecessor earned in three.

Magic Mike XXL opening weekend prediction: $24.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $44 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Terminator Genisys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/25/terminator-genisys-box-office-prediction/

Foxcatcher Movie Review

Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher is certainly an example of truth being stranger than fiction and we see it play in bizarre, unsettling, tragic, and fascinating ways in the director’s third feature. His previous two efforts, 2005’s Capote and 2011’s Moneyball, dealt with the issue of competitive nature within us and Foxcatcher does as well. This time around, it’s in a much darker fashion.

The film tells the fact based story of two Olympic gold medalists, Mark (Channing Tatum) and Dave Schulz (Mark Ruffalo) and their relationship with John du Pont (Steve Carell), heir to his family’s chemical mega fortune. Foxcatcher begins in 1987 when the brothers are training for the 1988 Summer Games in Seoul. The early proceedings show that Mark is a bit in his brother’s shadow. He has to remind others that he won the gold. Dave doesn’t seem to have that issue.

Mark’s preparation for Seoul takes a turn when he is contacted by people affiliated with Mr. du Pont, who resides on a sprawling family compound/horse ranch in Pennsylvania. He is summoned to the estate where du Pont expresses his desire to help Mark realize his goals. In the meantime, he will provide a state of the art practice facility. Dave is extended the same offer, but declines. Mark is impressionable and it doesn’t take long for du Pont to establish a strange and often creepy bond with him. Dave watches from afar with growing concern, at least initially.

du Pont’s behavior includes an affinity for guns and a highly inflated opinion of his actual ability to train young men to wrestle. Most write this off as him being an eccentric millionaire. He monograms his clothing with Team Foxcatcher, his hand picked name for his squad of brawlers. He produces documentaries about himself which extol his questionable virtues. John also has serious Mommy issues with the matriarch of the dynasty (Vanessa Redgrave).

Family issues are central to Foxcatcher and it extends to the brothers. Mark and Dave grew up poor and moved around a lot. The concept of home is foreign to them. du Pont is available to provide one for Mark and eventually Dave. The financial stability involved keep them there for longer than it should. We witness Mark go from adoration of his sibling to contempt and du Pont plays a role. We witness Dave go against his better instincts with du Pont and allow the promise of a place to settle override his genuine concerns.

Along the way, we are privy to three powerhouse performances from the leads. Carell has received the lion’s share of publicity and it’s easy to see why. The actor known mostly for his comedic talents is unrecognizable with his heavy makeup job. He oozes awkwardness and insecurity and supreme creepiness. The film is not overly concerned with delving into how du Pont became so unhinged, but we see glimpses and some suggestions as to why. And that’s mostly enough.

Tatum’s work is impressive in its own right and his performance is an accomplishment of body language, from his slightly dumb jock lumbering to a scene where his movements best represent a wounded dog who’s upset his owner. Ruffalo is the heart of the movie and yet even his heart isn’t always in the best place, when he places the aforementioned promise of a comfortable life higher than du Pont’s increasingly scary actions.

Foxcatcher is an absorbing character study of these three individuals just as Miller has done before with Truman Capote and Billy Beane. This is no doubt the bleakest of the lot, but once again the director has picked a fascinating true story and the right actors to realize his telling of it.

***1/2 (out of four)

Jupiter Ascending Box Office Prediction

With a gargantuan reported budget of $175 million, Jupiter Ascending hits theaters Friday and hopes to end the current three week reign of American Sniper. It might be a tall order. Written and directed by Andy and Lana Wachowski who brought us the innovative Matrix in 1999 and its sequels, Jupiter’s science fiction roots could bring in fans of the directors’ work.

Yet that hasn’t worked out too well in the past decade. The Wachowskis follow up features both posted disappointing results domestically. 2008’s heavily hyped Speed Racer managed only $18.5 million in its premiere while 2012’s Cloud Atlas opened to just under $10 million.

I have found the trailers and TV spots for Jupiter a bit curious as it’s underplayed the fact that Channing Tatum is the star. Costars include Mila Kunis, Eddie Redmayne, and Sean Bean. Reviews have yet to publish, but my guess would be mixed notices at best.

The question to me is whether Jupiter Ascending can clear $20 million out of the gate. It was originally planned for a summer 2014 opening, but pushed back with the typical excuse of needing more time for special effects shots. I do believe it will just surpass $20M, but not by much and that additional time away from a plum summer slot won’t make much difference.

Jupiter Ascending opening weekend prediction: $20.9 million

For my prediction on The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/the-spongebob-movie-sponge-out-of-water-box-office-prediction/

For my Seventh Son prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/01/31/seventh-son-box-office-prediction/