99th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.

We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.

It begins with Supporting Actor. When I made my first picks in 2025, my projected quintet yielded just one eventual nominee in Stellan Skasgård for Sentimental Value. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly identified Sean Penn for One Battle After Another who would win his third statue. The other three nominees – Benicio del Toro in One Battle, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, and Delroy Lindo in Sinners were not named.

An interesting factoid about this particular acting race: 18 of the last 20 hopefuls come from Best Picture nominees. That’s certainly something to keep in mind when making these initial forecasts.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.

Last year, I projected Colman Domingo making the cut as Jackson family patriarch Joseph Jackson in Michael. That film ended up getting pushed to this April. This time around, I don’t have him in my five but he’s hanging around in other possibilities.

As for other names to keep an eye on, Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine) and John Goodman (Digger) could be looking at their first noms after long and respected careers. Buscemi may face competition from his costar Sam Rockwell. It is currently unknown what the category placement will be for Rockwell, but I’ll slot him here for now. There’s more than one possibility in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey with Tom Holland appearing as the most high profile. Guy Pearce (Ink) will vie for his second go-round in this category two years after The Brutalist.

Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

John Goodman, Digger

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Guy Pearce, Ink

Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

Other Possibilities:

Daniel Brühl, The Entertainment System is Down

Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

Colman Domingo, Michael

Ciarán Hinds, Cry to Heaven

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Miles Teller, Paper Tiger

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, A Long Winter

Oscar Predictions: Josephine

The Sundance Film Festival is underway this weekend for the final time in Park City before it moves to Boulder in 2027. This is also the first Sundance since the passing of its legendary founder Robert Redford. In particular, Sundance is a major indicator of the documentaries that will be in eventual Oscar contention. At the 2025 fest, all five just nominated docs played there. Also last year, BP nominee Train Dreams got its first exposure as did Rose Byrne’s nominated Best Actress turn in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.

You can expect a few Sundance related prediction posts to pop up in the coming days, but we’ll start with Josephine. The drama marks the second film for auteur Beth de Araújo (behind 2022’s Soft & Quiet) and it incorporates a traumatizing incident involving sexual violence that the filmmaker experienced at a young age. Gemma Chan, Channing Tatum, and Philip Ettinger lead the cast and early word-of-mouth is very complimentary to them.

Yet the loudest praise is going to eight-year-old Mason Reeves in her title role cinematic debut. The raves for Josephine and the girl playing her is already an indication of potential awards attention down the line. Reeves might be a shoo-in at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Young Actor/Actress. A distributor is likely to snatch up rights quickly. One question is whether the tough subject matter will be a hindrance. The first reviews out of Utah suggest it could be in the mix for Picture, some acting nods, and Original Screenplay with a deftly handled campaign. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

October 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.

The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.

As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.

Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million

2. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Good Fortune

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. After the Hunt

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 10-12)

Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.

Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.

One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.

I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.

The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.

Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/08): The announced theater count of just 1300 venues has me changing my prediction from $5.2 million to $2.2 million. That puts it outside of the of the top 5.

With Taylor Swift sashaying out of multiplexes after a dominant weekend, Tron: Ares looks to take over the charts. We also have Channing Tatum in the crime dramedy Roofman and Jennifer Lopez headlining Kiss of the Spider Woman. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

With scant competition, Tron should have no trouble placing first. That said, I have the sci-fi threequel earning less out of the gate than what greeted Tron: Legacy nearly 15 years ago.

I have both Roofman and Spider Woman in the mid single digits and both could fall behind the third frame of One Battle After Another if it dips in the low to mid 40s. **I’ll also note the release of Soul on Fire starring William H. Macy. It could manage to do $3 million or so and sneak into the top 5, but I’m uncertain on the theater count. I may add it into the lineup later this week so keep an eye out.

The Conjuring: Last Rites could hold the five spot since I believe its decline will be far less than The Smashing Machine‘s sophomore outing. The latter bombed over the weekend (more on that below) and its B- Cinemascore doesn’t bode well for the road ahead.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

3. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

5. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (October 3-5)

To coincide with the release of her already record-breaking 12th album, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl played for a three-day engagement and was #1 as expected. The $34 million take was in line with many expectations, but I thought Ms. Swift might surpass them with a $48.6 million projection. Any way you cut it, it’s a fine result while not approaching the $93 million that her Eras Tour theatrical experience garnered.

In fact, pretty much everything fell below my forecasts this weekend. One Battle After Another slid to second with a troubling 50% decline to $11 million. I was more generous at $14.5 million as I thought the A Cinemascore would help out more than it did. The two-week take is $42 million.

Dwayne Johnson suffered his weakest ever wide release opening as The Smashing Machine crumbled in third with $6 million. I guesstimated more than twice that number at $13.7 million. A poor start like that should evaporate any awards buzz and look for it to fade quickly.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie nosedived 61% in fourth with $5.3 million compared to my glass half full $7.9 million prediction. Its ten-day tally is a meager $21 million.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five with $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The five-week total is $167 million.

Two other new(ish) titles struggled. The re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water was seventh with $3.2 million. I went with $4.4 million. Nevertheless the few extra bucks brought its gross to $687 million as Avatar: Fire and Ash is primed for December.

Canine horror pic Good Boy was ninth with $2.3 million, falling a bit under my $2.8 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Channing Tatum plays a real life robber using unconventional break-in methods in the dramedy Roofman. The Paramount release is out October 10th with Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines) directing. Kirsten Dunst costars with a supporting cast including Ben Mendelsohn, LaKeith Stanfield, Juno Temple, Melonie Diaz, Uzo Abuba, Lily Collias, Jimmy O. Yang and Peter Dinklage.

After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month, reviews were mostly complimentary with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic. However, the buzz wasn’t strong enough to get in the awards conversation.

Roofman will rely solely on Tatum’s drawing power, but plenty of viewers may wait until streaming options are available. The ceiling for this could be $10 million (which would be an admirable result). I think mid single digits is where it lands.

Roofman opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Tron: Ares prediction, click here:

For my Kiss of the Spider Woman prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Roofman

Before it drops in theaters on October 10th, Roofman has played the Toronto Film Festival. While reactions aren’t through the first portion of its title, they’re overwhelmingly positive. Based on the true story of a military man turned thief, Channing Tatum headlines the dramedy with Kirsten Dunst as his love interest. Costars include Ben Mendelsohn, Peter Dinklage, Uzo Abuda, Juno Temple, Emory Cohen, Melonie Diaz, and LaKeith Stanfield.

While this seems like an unconventional choice for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines director Derek Cianfrance, critics are mostly thumbing it up. Rotten Tomatoes is at 90% with 74 on Metacritic. Some reviews are saying this is a career best performance from Tatum and complimenting the chemistry with Dunst. They could both be long shots for Academy attention. If Paramount slots this in Musical/Comedy instead of Drama (sounds like both are feasible) and campaigns Dunst in Best Actress as opposed to supporting at the Golden Globes, the odds could be improved for that ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Blink Twice Review

Zoë Kravitz’s directorial career opens up nicely enough with Blink Twice that it feels whiny to gripe on the negatives. It takes a while to find its destination. Perhaps the “eat the rich” genre is getting overdone considering The Menu, Triangle of Sadness, Saltburn, and HBO’s The White Lotus. There’s still enough to savor in this assured debut from the actress of many franchises including X-Men, Mad Max, Divergent, and The Batman.

That starts with an entrancing cast led by Naomi Ackie’s Frida. She’s a cocktail waitress whose employment at swanky benefits puts her in the airspace of vapid and vaping billionaire Slater (Channing Tatum). Frida is familiar with him as we witness her scroll through Instagram where he’s making an indistinct apology for some past transgression. If he’s canceled, no one’s informed various hangers on in his orbit. A sudden burst of confidence and then klutziness from Frida creates a Meet Cute where Slater invites her and her coworker/roommate Jess (Alia Shawkat) to his private island.

An entourage is in tow including private chef Cody (Simon Rex), business partner and Polaroid documenter Vic (Christian Slater), young Lucas (Levon Hawke) and Tom (Haley Joel Osment) whose primary character trait is wearing sunglasses and being under the influence. The boys are joined by influencer and reality star Sarah (Adria Arjona) and Camilla (Liz Caribel) and Heather (Trew Mullens). The latter two share Tom’s generally hazy ways. Sarah seems to be in a competition for Slater’s attention with Frida even though she’s seemingly paired up with Cody. Geena Davis joins the proceedings as Slater’s organized but off-kilter assistant.

With their phones confiscated, the vacation with an indeterminate end date starts with picture perfect scenery, amazing food that Cody snootily describes, and copious dollops of designer drugs. Sure there’s venomous vipers on the grounds, but the servants seem to be handling them. Increasingly there’s periods of lost time that Frida and eventually Sarah and especially Jess begin to notice. And why is there dirt under Frida’s animal adorned fingernails each morning? What’s with random bruises showing up on people that they can’t recall?

The eventual truths are as disturbing as the real life stories of plutocrats with their own islets. The screenplay from Kravitz and E.T. Feigenbaum doesn’t shy away from entering dark and disturbing places. This is after a fairly lengthy windup that risks lulling the audience into complacency (perhaps on purpose). The cast helps guide us through the earlier days becoming a blur. No one seems to have a grasp on whether it’s Monday, Saturday, or whether they’ve been there a week or three.

Ackie and Arjona’s performances are the worthiest of attention. Best known as Whitney Houston in the biopic I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Ackie goes from infatuated server to victim of horrifying acts to unexpected statuses that I won’t spoil. That’s a tricky balancing act and she certainly manages it. Arjona is perhaps the most impressive in a role that seems one-note at first (the jilted woman) and becomes anything but. With this and her starring turn in Hit Man from a few months back, she’s having a fantastic cinematic year.

Blink Twice might be familiar territory as of late, but Kravitz’s take made me not wanna look away. It’s worth taking the trip with these literal and figurative snakes in the grass and those that serve them until the power dynamic shifts.

*** (out of four)

Oscar Predictions: Blink Twice

Zoë Kravitz makes her directorial debut and cowrites Blink Twice which opens this weekend. The psychological thriller features a packed cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.

The $20 million production originally had a far more provocative title (look it up) and most critics are complimentary of Kravitz’s first behind the camera effort. The RT score is 80%. Some are saying it doesn’t quite pull off its mix of genres.

Twice hopes to be a decent late summer performer for Amazon Studios. That’s a big question mark. Awards viability isn’t as this was never conceived as a contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

MGM looks for audiences to set their sights on Blink Twice when it opens August 23rd. The thriller marks the directorial debut of Zoë Kravitz with an eclectic cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.

Reviews thus far are decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Late August typically isn’t fertile ground for fresh product at the box office. Blink face an uphill battle. It is slated for approximately 3000 screens and that’s more than The Crow is reportedly getting (2600).

There could be a close race between those two newcomers as I see both in the high single digits or lower double digits. I currently having this flying a little higher.

Blink Twice opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my The Crow prediction, click here:

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

July 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:

My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.

The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.

That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $72.3 million

2. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

3. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Longlegs

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (July 12-14)

Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.

Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.

Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.

A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.

Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…