Arriving five years to the day behind its billion plus grossing predecessor, Joker: Folie à Deux dances into multiplexes on October 4th. Todd Phillips is back in the director’s chair with Joaquin Phoenix reprising his Oscar-winning role as Arthur Fleck. Lady Gaga’s Harley Quinn joins the musical mayhem alongside Catherine Keener, Brendan Gleeson, Zazie Beetz, Harry Lawtey, and Steve Coogan.
A half decade ago, Joker decimated expectations and set records with a $96 million opening on its way to $335 million domestically. Worldwide it amassed a haul of just over one billion bucks and garnered 11 Academy Awards nominations including Phoenix’s victory.
Like the original, Deux was first seen at the Venice Film Festival where reaction was decidedly mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 63% with 54 on Metacritic. Tracking suggests the sequel might not be the phenomenon of what we witnessed in 2019.
This is not expected to top the starting number of Joker. The question is how far it falls under. I suspect the so-so buzz could mean mid 50s and that’s a far cry from its predecessor.
Joker: Folie à Deux opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million
There are some genuine awards related surprises as it pertains to the Venice Film Festival debut for Joker: Folie à Deux today. It is not shocking that the Todd Phillips sequel to his billion plus 2019 grosser is garnering wildly divergent reactions. So did the original. I’m talking about some unexpected housekeeping items. For one, Lady Gaga’s performance as Harley Quinn is said to be a clear Supporting Actress play and not lead. In my updated Oscar predictions post yesterday, I slotted her for the first time (at #5) in Actress. That will obviously change. Another tidbit is that despite Deux being a musical, there doesn’t appear to be any original songs for consideration. I’ve listed a TBD tune in my quintet of forecasted contenders for several weeks. That, too, will be corrected when I updated Academy projections shortly (probably Sunday).
Prior to its October 4th stateside premiere (exactly five years after part one), the follow-up has premiered in Italy just like the last one did. The first Joker started its Oscar run by taking the Golden Lion (equivalent to Best Picture) in Venice. It ended up receiving a ceremony high 11 nominations at the 92nd Academy Awards including Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and several tech races. Joaquin Phoenix received the gold statue in Best Actor eleven years after Heath Ledger won Supporting Actor as the same character in The Dark Knight. The Original Score by Hildur Guõnadóttit was also victorious.
Phoenix is back as the iconic comic book villain along with Gaga, a returning Zazie Beetz, Brendan Gleeson, and Catherine Keener supporting. Even more so than what took place a half decade ago, Folie appears to be drawing even more divisive word-of-mouth. The Metacritic score is 54 based on nearly 25 reviews thus far. Some are calling it brilliant while others are saying this is a huge misfire.
The Academy is unlikely to show the same affection that they did with Joker. BP, Director, and Actor seem improbable. I’ve yet to include Deux in my top 10 picks for BP and that doesn’t appear to be changing. Down the line races like Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, and Original Score (from Hildur again) could occur. Yet the Academy might just ignore this altogether or maybe throw it a bone in one or two of the aforementioned categories.
Back to Gaga. She was nominated in Actress for 2018’s A Star is Born and was expected to be up for 2021’s House of Gucci. She didn’t make the cut for Gucci. Supporting Actress could include heavy hitters like Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez from Emilia Pérez, Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door), among others whose films have yet to be unveiled. Gaga is getting good ink as Quinn, but there may not be room for her to get in the door. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Hello America. As we celebrate our birthday today, perhaps the biggest awards news this week came from the Venice Film Festival. It kicks off in late August and the surprise announcement was that Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will open the Italian competition prior to its September 6th domestic theatrical bow.
That caused some prognosticators’ to speculate whether the Warner Bros release will make a play for Oscar inclusion. I wouldn’t go that far. In the past decade and a half, some of the premiere gala pics at Venice have generated BP nods including Black Swan, Gravity, Birdman, and La La Land. There’s been more that haven’t such as The Ides of March, Everest, Downsizing, First Man, and White Noise. That’s why you won’t find Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in my 25 possibilities for BP though I would expect to see its name (twice) in races like Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design when I expand the category predictions a few weeks from now.
The London Film Festival shared its own scheduling report that Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz will kick off that event in October before its November 1st output on the big screen. It will then hit Apple TV on November 22nd. I am a little befuddled that it is skipping Venice and Toronto, but it still appears to be Apple’s most significant contender. The word is also out that Saoirse Ronan will contend in lead Actress and not supporting for Blitz. That may well put her in competition with herself considering the acclaimed The Outrun (which was first seen at Sundance) and should make its way to theaters later this fall. I’ve had Ronan’s performance in Blitz slotted in supporting, but she makes the move up and replaces her Outrun work in the lead quintet. The buzz also has Harris Dickinson as the main supporting play over costars like Stephen Graham and Leigh Gill. Same with Kathy Burke in Supporting Actress. We’ll see if that holds true when those Londoners get eyeballs on it.
Another note – you may notice that Sing Sing is still #1 in BP while its director Greg Kwedar is on the outside looking in at sixth. That may seem counterintuitive. While it is still rare for a potential BP recipient to not see its maker in the cut for Director, it’s happened twice very recently with 2018’s Green Book and 2021’s CODA. Kwedar’s picture seems like the type of emotional crowdpleaser that could go all the way with voters. However, Kwedar himself may not make the quintet for his behind the camera efforts. I do anticipate him being up for the Adapted Screenplay that he cowrote.
Nickel Boys is the most significant gainer this time around. It moves into the BP ten while Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor vaults to #1 in Supporting Actress. The pic also materializes for the first go-round in Adapted Screenplay.
Speaking of that writing competition, I’ve shifted Emilia Pérez from Original to Adapted though that has not been determined at press time. We also have a new #1 in Adapted with my aforementioned BP leader Sing Sing.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update available in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 11) (E)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (E)
13. The End (PR: 10) (-3)
14. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Gladiator II (PR: 24) (+9)
16. A Real Pain (PR: 14) (-2)
17. The Room Next Door (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Nosferatu (PR: 25) (+7)
19. Maria (PR: 19) (E)
20. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 21) (+1)
21. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-6)
22. His Three Daughters (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Dídi (PR: 23) (E)
24. We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Here (PR: 20) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Hit Man
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 10) (E)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 13) (E)
14. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 9) (-5)
15. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (-5)
11. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Noémie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tilda Swinton, The End
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (+3)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (-3)
5. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kathy Burke, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 14) (+5)
10. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-5)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 8) (-6)
15. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz – moved to lead Actress
Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 12) (+7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (-5)
11. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 7) (-4)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (-1)
14. Elliot Heffernan, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Michael Shannon, The End
Barry Keoghan, Bird
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (E)
5. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hard Truths (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The End (PR: 3) (-5)
9. The Apprentice (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Dídi (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
13. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Maria (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Challengers (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Emilia Pérez – moved to Adapted Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nightbitch (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Queer (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
It has been two weeks since my previous Oscar predictions in the eight major categories of Picture, Director, the four acting derbies, and the two screenplay competitions.
Perhaps the biggest development in that time frame (nothing really significant happened via the Tribeca Film Festival) is the massive box office performance for Disney/Pixar’s Inside Out 2. Not only did it land the second highest animated feature debut of all time, it just scored the biggest second weekend ($100 million) for its genre in history. As it is easily exceeding expectations at multiplexes, could it sneak into the Best Picture race?
I doubt it. There have only been 3 animated pics up for the grand prize (all Disney): 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, 2009’s Up, and 2010’s Toy Story 3. You’ll notice that 2015’s Inside Out is not on the list and it garnered stronger reviews than its sequel. Part 2 is a shoo-in for an Animated Feature nom and it could even make an appearance in Adapted Screenplay (though you’ll see its toward the bottom of my hopefuls).
As far as rankings, there is movement to discuss. I’ve vaulted Amy Adams to #1 in my Best Actress quintet for Nightbitch. It was announced earlier this week that it will screen at the Toronto Film Festival in September and that Adams will receive the Tribute Performer Award while there. Other recent takers of that prize are Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale). Wanna take a wild guess what they all have in common?
Oh… there’s more. I am now putting Sing Sing atop the charts for Best Picture over Steve McQueen’s Blitz. The buzz for the former has been steady since its Toronto unveiling in 2023 and it sounds like the type of crowdpleaser that the Academy could eat up. Like CODA from 2021, it could be a BP recipient where its director fails to get nominated. Speaking of that category, I’m elevating Denis Villeneuve to the top spot for Dune: Part Two overMcQueen.
You can read all the movement below and I’ll have another update posted in two weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (Previous Ranking: 4) (+3)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 5) (E)
6. Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (E)
10. The End (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. Nightbitch (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-1)
13. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A Real Pain (PR: 18) (+4)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Nickel Boys (PR: 14) (-2)
17. His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (-4)
18. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Maria (PR: 16) (-3)
20. Here (PR: 23) (+3)
21. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 22) (+1)
22. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-3)
23. Dídi (PR: 20) (-3)
24. Gladiator II (PR: 25) (+1)
25. Nosferatu (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bird
Kinds of Kindness
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (+3)
11. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Pablo Larrain, Maria
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tilda Swinton, TheEnd (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Demi Moore, The Substance
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+1)
7. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (-4)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 11) (E)
12. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George MacKay, The End
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Emily Watson, Small Things like These
Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 10) (E)
11. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
My first Oscar predictions for the month of June shows that box office matters and the poor performance of Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga causes it to fall out of my 25 BP hopefuls. Meanwhile the acclaimed Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig rises 12 sports to #10 in BP with His Three Daughters falling out. Fig’s maker Mohammad Rasoulof is in the directing quintet for the first time.
The aforementioned Daughters is not just out in BP. Natasha Lyonne drops in Actress in favor of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez while Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) replaces Carrie Coon in Supporting Actress.
In Actor, it is Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) back in over Glen Powell (Hit Man). Yet the news isn’t all bad for that latter picture as I’m projecting the screenplay contests for the first time. Hit Man grabs a spot in Adapted Screenplay.
A reminder – the placement of performers is uncertain at press time. One example is Saldaña and Karla Sofia Gascón for Pérez. They could easily be switched and contend in one another’s races. In fact, I had it the other way around until now. There’s also Saoirse Ronan. I have her as a double nominee for The Outrun in lead and Blitz in supporting. She could be campaigned for Best Actress in both.
It will all shake out soon enough and here’s where I have nominations standing at the moment!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Anora (PR: 7) (+2)
6. Queer (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The End (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 22) (+12)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 12) (E)
13. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Nickel Boys (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Maria (PR: 20) (+4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 15) (-2)
18. A Real Pain (PR: 24) (+6)
19. Hit Man (PR: 19) (-1)
20. Dídi (PR: 17) (-3)
21. Bird (PR: 19) (-2)
22. All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
23. Here (PR: 21) (-2)
24. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (-11)
25. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Not Ranked:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Civil War
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 15) (+10)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 13) (E)
14. Pablo Larrain, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from supporting
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 8) (E)
9. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Zoe Saldaña, Emila Pérez – moved to supporting
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (+1)
10. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead
4. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emily Watson, Small Things like These (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (-4)
13. Toni Collette, JurorNo. 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez – moved to lead
Robin Wright, Here
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (E)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 13) (E)
The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).
The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.
While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.
Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)
20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)
22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)
14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Andrea Arnold, Bird
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Hitting Netflix today is Shawn Levy’s The Adam Project, a sci-fi adventure that re-teams the director with his Free Guy lead Ryan Reynolds. Costars include Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Garner, Walker Scobell, Catherine Keener, and Zoe Saldana.
Focused on a 12-year-old who meets his fighter pilot future self, many reviews are kindly comparing this Project to 80s era Spielberg product. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a decent though not overly impressive 70%.
Since it’s available for some theatrical showings, this will be eligible for Oscar consideration. Levy and Reynolds, as mentioned, collaborated just last year for Free Guy and that resulted in a box office hit and a slot in the Visual Effects race (where it will almost certainly lose to Dune in two weeks).
Based on the write-ups, Free Guy appears to be a flashier experience than Adam and I doubt this manages to garner any awards attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Seven and a half years after DreamWorks Animation had a prehistoric animated comedic hit on their hands with the original, The Croods: A New Age hits theaters this Wednesday. It will surely be a different box office story in these COVID times as part 2 will follow with its PVOD unveiling in time for Christmas. The toon is directed by Joel Crawford and returns the vocal stylings of Nicolas Cage, Emma Stone, Ryan Reynolds, Catherine Keener, and Cloris Leachman. New faces behind the mics include Peter Dinklage, Leslie Mann, and Kelly Marie Tran.
The review embargo ended today and the results are mostly positive with a 75% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s in line with the 72% achieved by its predecessor. In 2013, part 1 managed a Best Animated Feature nod. It was defeated by a massive Pixar front runner by the name of Frozen.
2020 could see history repeat itself with the caveman family. One could argue that it’s easier to slide into the final five this year and A New Age looks to do so. Yet there is once again a heavy favorite to win the prize and that is Soul from (you guessed it) Pixar. Other acclaimed titles such as Wolfwalkers and Over the Moon appear to be likely nominees and Pixar has another hopeful with Onward (though after the snub of Frozen II from last year, it’s not a guarantee that one makes it in).
Croods could easily fill the fourth or fifth slot come nomination time, but I wouldn’t chisel its inclusion in pen just yet. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom isn’t the only high-profile sequel to a 2015 release coming to a theater near you this month. Sicario: Day of the Soldado follows up on the critically acclaimed Denis Villeneuve crime drama that garnered three Oscar nominations in that year. Soldado debuts a week from tomorrow and reviews are already out.
The verdict? Somewhat mixed as it stands at 65% on Rotten Tomatoes at press time. That’s a pretty far cry from the 93% that its predecessor earned. Interestingly, I’ve seen at least two critical reactions that compare it to Rambo: First Blood Part II. Go figure. Even with its great buzz from reviewers, 2015’s Sicario missed out on the big nominations, including Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, and Benicio del Toro for Supporting Actor. The pic did receive nods for the Cinematography of Roger Deakins, the late Johann Johannsson’s Score, and Sound Editing. Deakins does not return here and he finally won a long deserved statue for last year’s Blade Runner 2049. Villeneuve was busy with 2049 as well and Stefano Sollima takes over directorial duties here.
Bottom line: the Soldado reaction leaves it as an extreme long-shot for any recognition, while part 1 found itself more in the mix.
Not your traditional summer sequel involving superheroes, dinosaurs or animated characters, Sicario: Day of the Soldado arrives in theaters next weekend and hopes to serve as counter programming to said seasonal blockbusters. The pic is a follow-up to 2015’s Sicario, Denis Villeneuve’s critically acclaimed crime thriller that garnered three Oscar nominations. Benicio del Toro and Josh Brolin (this summer’s reigning sequel king) reprise their roles from the original, though Emily Blunt does not appear (she’s been busy with A Quiet Place and Mary Poppins Returns). New costars include Isabela Moner, Jeffrey Donovan, Catherine Keener, and Matthew Modine. As for Villeneuve, he’s moved onto Arrival and Blade Runner 2049 and Italian director Stefano Sollima is now on board. The original’s screenwriter, Taylor Sheridan (who also is responsible for Hell or High Water and Wind River), is back penning this sequel.
Sicario opened in the fall of 2015 and its first wide release weekend brought in $12.1 million with an eventual gross of over $46 million domestically (it earned $85 million total worldwide against a reported budget of $30 million). Soldado may manage to slightly outpace that debut number of part 1 and a sequel is apparently already in the works. That premiere could put it in a battle for third place with the weekend’s other newcomers (Uncle Drew) and behind Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado opening weekend prediction: $13.8 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 