My initial projections for the 96th Academy Awards arrives at Best Actress. If you missed my takes on the other three acting derbies, they can be accessed at the bottom of the post.
As I’ve mentioned in the other write-ups, this is simply a super early snapshot of the possibilities. A year ago in my first forecast for the 95th Oscars, none of the five actresses I had pegged in this race ended up being nominated. However, the pictures for two of them (Emma Stone for Poor Things and Regina King in Shirley) were pushed back to this year and you can find their names below yet again. Three of the eventual nominees for 2022 were listed in Other Possibilities: eventual winner Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Cate Blanchett (Tár), and Ana de Armas (Blonde).
I’ll have Director and the big prize Picture posted tomorrow!
After nearly a year of speculation on the blog and the new podcast (look up Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite pod platform, folks!), the time has come to make my final picks for the winners at the 95th Academy Awards. The ceremony comes our way Sunday night with Jimmy Kimmel hosting and here’s hoping the presenters are given the correct envelopes and that no one gets slapped.
For some context, here’s how I did in the previous four Oscars (note that there were 21 races through 2019 because the sound competitions were divided into Editing and Mixing until their combination).
2018: 14/21
2019: 18/21
2020: 13/20
2021: 17/20
Note that I seem to do better in the odd numbered years. That could repeat for 2022 as three of the four acting derbies are highly tricky to pick and there are other down-the-line competitions that could go in different directions. As for Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Animated Feature, and International Feature Film… not so much.
Let’s go through them one by one and I’ll give you my winner and runner-up projection!
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
The tricky part isn’t picking the victor. It’s picking the runner-up. That’s because Everything has taken, well, nearly everything. PGA. DGA. WGA. SAG Ensemble. Critics Choice.
OK, so All Quiet received the BAFTA and The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin were your respective Drama and Musical/Comedy recipients at the Golden Globes. Yet the momentum has been with Everything for some time and it is the easy pick for the biggest prize of the night.
Given that a screenplay and acting statue are legitimately in play, Banshees has the strongest argument for a package of trophies that could include BP. It’s a distant runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
I suppose the voters could go the Globe route and bestow their honor on the legendary Spielberg. Doubtful. Look for the Academy to match the DGA and Critics Choice selections of Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert.
Predicted Winner: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Runner-Up: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Now it gets tough. Blanchett’s towering work could be undeniable as it was to BAFTA and Critics Choice (similar to how Anthony Hopkins from The Father managed a win over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom two years ago). The BP momentum and SAG could push Yeoh over the line. This is a coin flip and I’m siding with the momentum.
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
A three-person race dwindled when Farrell lost the BAFTA. It went instead to Butler and he also won the Globe (over Fraser). SAG and Critics Choice went to Fraser. I have gone back and forth on this endlessly. If Fraser won, he would break a precedent of the victorious Actor’s movie being up for Best Picture. You have to go back to 2009 and Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) to find the last one whose film wasn’t in the BP lineup. I cannot stress enough that this is 50.5/49.5.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Unlike Actress and Actor, this is between three nominees. Curtis surprisingly nabbed SAG while Bassett took Critics Choice and the Globe. Both are actresses whose wins could double as career achievement honors. I have a suspicion that the Academy may instead look at BAFTA winner Condon as their best opportunity to throw Banshees a bone.
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Keoghan is the #2 since he unexpectedly won BAFTA. That said, this is the simplest acting race to project as Quan has won everything everywhere else.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
If All Quiet over performs (and it might), it could emerge here. The smart money is on Sarah Polley and WGA honored script for Talking.
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Here’s another category where voters could single out Banshees. Still – I’m not going against the strong BP frontrunner.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
del Toro’s version of the classic tale has taken all precursors that matter. This is one of the uncomplicated calls.
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, EO, The Quiet Girl
This might even be more automatic than Animated Feature. As your lone BP contestant, All Quiet will make noise here.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Argentina, 1985
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, A House Made of Splinters, Navalny
Tough pick. Breathes and Beauty are viable. I’ve picked Fire of Love over Navalny twice in Critics Choice and PGA and missed both times. Not again.
Predicted Winner: Navalny
Runner-Up: Fire of Love
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, Bardo, Elvis, Empire of Light, Tár
When perceived favorite Top Gun: Maverick shockingly failed to make this quintet, the race opened up. Elvis could make history and have the first female winner in Mandy Walker. It’s tempting to pick her, but I’ll go with Quiet.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
On the other hand, here’s one where Elvis could take the gold. I wouldn’t count out Panther or even Everything if its sweep branches into upsets.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Maverick is in the mix, but Everything should extend its haul.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
The Whale and Western are possible. I’m giving this one to The King, however.
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: The Whale
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans
This is one of the most open categories. I don’t see Banshees landing this. All 4 others are possible. Babylon or Western might be the smart pick, but this is the one true upset I’m selecting and projecting a Fabelmans/John Williams appreciation victory.
Predicted Winner: The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Original Song
“Tell It Like a Woman” from Applause, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR, “This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
I don’t believe this is cut and dry. The star power of Gaga and Rihanna or an Everything expansion everywhere could make it interesting. “Naatu Naatu” has dominated the precursors and I’m not going with two upsets in the musical competitions.
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
This is where Babylon should be Oscar winner Babylon though Elvis lurks.
Predicted Winner: Babylon
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
And this is where Top Gun: Maverick should get its Oscar. Yet I’m going with a minor upset pick with Western. That means I’m projecting Maverick ends up 0 for 6.
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
No real Maverick shot in VE because Avatar is one of the automatic category picks.
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis
1 Win
Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Navalny, RRR, Women Talking
I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening or Monday on the blog and the podcast!
As the laundromat running Evelyn whose many dimensions are explored in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Michelle Yeoh is the final Case Of post for the five Best Actress contenders.
The Case for Michelle Yeoh:
From acclaimed Hong Kong action flicks with Jackie Chan to fighting alongside James Bond in Tomorrow Never Dies to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to the overprotective future mother-in-law in Crazy Rich Asians, Yeoh had many career highlights until this multi-genre pic from the Daniels eclipsed them all. The Hollywood Foreign Press honored her with the Golden Globe for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. Last weekend, she took home the SAG for Actress where 16 of the last 22 winners became the Academy’s recipients in the 21st century. Everywhere is the frontrunner for Best Picture and that certainly doesn’t hurt.
The Case Against Michelle Yeoh:
Cate Blanchett in Tár. While Yeoh’s previous victories are a road map to Oscar glory, so are Blanchett’s as she has taken the Globe in the Drama competition, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
It cannot be overstated how this is a coin flip between Yeoh and Blanchett. One could argue Yeoh has the late momentum given the recent SAG and Everything‘s likely success in the biggest race of all.
My Case Of posts will continue with Bill Nighy in Living!
For my other entries on the Actress hopefuls, click here:
A weekend of awards precursors was a blessing for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It stormed tonight’s SAG Awards and won the top prize at PGA the evening before. Make no mistake – Everything is now an even stronger frontrunner to take BP at the Oscars.
At PGA, Everything emerged as predicted. Some prognosticators went with Top Gun: Maverick as an upset pick. It wasn’t to be. The Producers Guild also went with Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio in the animated field. This is just as all other major precursors have done. It appears on a glide path for the Academy statue.
My PGA miss was in Documentary Feature as they chose Navalny over Fire of Love. Given that it’s won BAFTA and PGA, Navalny is the favorite. I don’t think it’s automatic (like I do with Pinocchio in Animated), but the odds are certainly in its favor.
Now… let’s get into SAG. Wow. I went 3 for 6. I correctly selected Everything for Best Ensemble. I nailed Stunt Ensemble for Top Gun: Maverick. And Ke Huy Quan made it a near sweep (though BAFTA went with Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin) with tonight’s Supporting Actor win. His acting race is the easiest to project for the Oscars.
The other three? They got more interesting. And I missed them all tonight!
By far, the biggest surprise is Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything) being named Supporting Actress over Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), who I predicted and BAFTA winner Kerry Condon (Banshees), who was my runner-up. That potentially makes it a three-person derby at the Oscars. It is worth noting that 9 of the past 10 Supporting Actress SAG victors became the Oscar recipient. So… discount Curtis at your own peril.
In the lead acting races, my runner-ups crossed the SAG finish line. It was Michelle Yeoh (Everything) in Actress over Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) instead of Austin Butler (Elvis), who did get some airtime graciously escorting various winners up the steps. Best Actor and Actress at the Oscars are now legit two-person competitions and I’ll be mulling them over before making final predictions. They’re coming March 8th ahead of the March 12th ceremony!
Bottom line: Everywhere did everything it needed to this weekend and then some while three acting races added real intrigue. Stay tuned!
Playing a version of Steven Spielberg’s real mother, Michelle Williams is nominated for her fifth Oscarin The Fabelmans.
The Case for Michelle Williams:
From the moment this personal project of Spielberg’s was announced, Williams was correctly assumed to have an awards bait role. Precursor noms have materialized at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. There could also be a feeling that she is overdue given that her track record is 0 for 4 on previous mentions.
The Case Against Michelle Williams:
Universal Pictures surprised everyone when they announced they were campaigning Williams in lead instead of supporting. I maintain that she would stand a considerably better shot at winning in the latter. Some wondered if the Academy might choose to put her up in supporting anyway. SAG and BAFTA left her off their ballots and there’s no significant victories to speak of. The general consensus and one I agree with is this is a two-person race between Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
Previous Nominations:
Brokeback Mountain (Supporting Actress, 2005); Blue Valentine (Actress, 2010); My Week with Marilyn (Actress; 2011); Manchester by the Sea (Supporting Actress; 2016)
The Verdict:
I believe the choice to slot Williams will universally be regarded as an unforced error. She seemed headed for 0 for 5.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Mescal in Aftersun!
If you didn’t catch my other write-ups on the contending Actresses, click here:
The 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards air this Sunday evening and they are often a reliable preview of what direction the Academy will go. In their races for Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor – there has been an 8/10 correlation over the past decade for SAG/Oscar matches. With Supporting Actress – it is 9/10.
Let’s walk through each of the six categories with my predicted winner and a runner-up, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking
Since the SAGs began in 1995, only one winner (1996’s The Birdcage) wasn’t at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. That rules out Babylon. I think (like some earlier precursors) this comes down to Everything v Banshees. I’m majorly tempted to say Banshees as the voters could see it as a way to honor the four thespians nominated in the individual races below. However, I’m giving a very slight edge to SAG doing the same for Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, and others for Everything.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
SAG could bestow Yeoh with the trophy, but Blanchett’s work may simply be undeniable at this juncture. If Banshees ends up taking Ensemble, I do think it increases Yeoh’s chances here.
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)
I feel like Farrell really needed that BAFTA last weekend and he didn’t emerge victorious. So it’s a two-person race between Butler and Fraser. And I’m struggling with this one. I could easily envision fellow actors crowning Fraser’s dramatic comeback that includes a Critics Choice award. Yet Butler has seen an impressive run that includes the Golden Globe and BAFTA. This is a coin flip, but I’ll say Butler has a little more momentum.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
A quintet that matches the Oscar five, Condon disrupted the possibility of Bassett sweeping when she took the BAFTA. They’re the two likeliest winners. I will say Curtis scoring an upset is feasible. I think the smart money is on Bassett with Condon as the runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
BAFTA again had a trick up their sleeve when Keoghan surprised over Quan. I think SAG will follow the lead of the Globes and Critics Choice and bring the latter back to the stage.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King
The only pic that I don’t think has a shot is Avatar because the original in 2009 didn’t even land a nom. 2018’s Black Panther won so Wakanda is certainly viable. Those pilots from Maverick did same amazing stuff though. They’re my pick.
Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my thoughts on what happened compared to my predictions.
The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.
Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.
While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.
In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).
Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.
Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.
Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.
As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).
Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.
The BAFTAs, Britain’s version of the Academy Awards, airs this Sunday (February 19) and it can often serve as a preview for where the Oscars will go. That holds true in same races more than others like the acting derbies.
In the past decade, 32 of the 40 winners in Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor became Oscar recipients. That’s 8 out of the past 10 Actresses, 9 for 10 in Actor, 7 for 10 in Supporting Actress, and 8 for 10 in Supporting Actor.
It’s a different story for the grand prize. A mere 3 of 10 Best Film winners at BAFTA are BP victors at the Oscars – Argo, 12 Years a Slave, and Nomadland. The percentage goes up considerably for Director at 7/10.
I’m going to keep it simple here. I’ll give you the nominees and my predicted winner and a runner-up. Let’s get to it!
Best Film
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Tár
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Todd Field (Tár), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Predicted Winner: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Todd Field, Tár
Best Actressin a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Bill Nighy (Living)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse), Albrecht Schuch (All Quiet on the Western Front), Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front, Living, The Quiet Girl, She Said, The Whale
Predicted Winner: Living
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Best Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Corsage, Decision to Leave, The Quiet Girl
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: The Quiet Girl
Best Documentary
All That Breathes, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Moonage Daydream, Navalny
Predicted Winner: Fire of Love
Runner-Up: Navalny
Best Casting
Aftersun, All Quiet on the Western Front, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Empire of Light, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Amsterdam, Babylon, Elvis, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Editing
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Make-Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Batman, Elvis, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, The Whale
Predicted Winner: The Whale
Runner-Up: Elvis
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Predicted Winner:Babylon
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon, The Batman, Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Babylon
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Best Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin, Brian and Charles, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Living, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical, See How They Run, The Swimmers, The Wonder
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Aftersun
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun, Blue Jean, Electric Malady, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, Rebellion
Predicted Winner: Aftersun
Runner-Up: Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
That equates to these movies generating these numbers in terms of wins:
4 Wins
All Quiet on the Western Front, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
Elvis
1 Win
Aftersun, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Fire of Love, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Tár, The Whale
As a down on her luck lottery winner who blew through the cash, Andrea Riseborough’s much discussed Best Actress nomination for To Leslie is next up in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Andrea Riseborough:
Even a week before Oscar nods came out, Riseborough (known for roles in mainstream and indie fare including Oblivion, Battle of the Sexes, and Mandy) was on no one’s radar screen for this small budget drama. Then a grassroots campaign emerged with shout-outs from fellow competitor Cate Blanchett and others. Most didn’t think she’d manage to get in, but lo and behold it happened. So it that can happen… why not a victory?
The Case Against Andrea Riseborough:
Well, there’s plenty of reasons why there probably won’t be a win. She was mentioned in zero precursors. The unconventional campaign for her to make the quintet – fairly or unfairly – has been criticized. And Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) appear to be in a two-person race for the gold.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The biggest surprise of the 20 contestants in the four acting derbies, Riseborough’s inclusion could lead to changes in the Academy’s campaign rules or could revolutionize how small distributors mount their campaigns. It’s doubtful the end result of the nomination itself is a win.
My Case Of posts will continue with Brendan Fraser in The Whale!
For my write-ups on Riseborough’s fellow nominees, click here:
Ana de Armas is Marilyn Monroe in Andrew Dominik’s Blonde and she’s the second Best Actress hopeful in my Case Of Posts.
The Case for Ana de Armas:
Despite the film itself garnering mixed reactions (more on that below), de Armas was widely praised. This resulted in nods at the Globes, SAG, and BAFTAs.
The Case Against Ana de Armas:
I’m talking really mixed reactions for the film. Blonde received the most Razzie nominations (8) of any 2022 title. Some critics and viewers outright despised the Netflix effort as evidenced by the 42% Rotten Tomatoes score and even lower 32% audience rating. She has yet to win anywhere.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
The fact that so many had their knives out for Blonde makes her a non-factor in this competition (unless we see a shocking SAG or BAFTA victory). We should see the Academy’s ladies and gentlemen prefer Cate Blanchett (Tár) or Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once).
My Case Of posts will continue with Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin!
If you missed my other write-ups for the Actress nominees, you can find them here:
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