Box Office Predictions: Christmas Weekend 2013

It’s the most wonderful time of the year and, at multiplexes, by far the most crowded time of the year! On Christmas Day, five pictures enter an already crowded marketplace. They are: Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, the boxing comedy Grudge Match with Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller’s fantasy drama The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, martial arts flick 47 Ronin with Keanu Reeves, and the Justin Bieber documentary Believe. You can read my individual posts on all five at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

By my estimates there will be nine – yes, nine – movies that gross double digits over the weekend. And there may well be a fierce battle for #1. In this same holiday weekend last year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell only 13% in its third weekend and I expect current #1 The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug to fall no further than 20%. This should put it in a neck and neck race with my prediction for Wolf of Wall Street.

Disney’s Frozen stands an excellent chance of gaining audience from last weekend and it too has an outside shot at the top spot. Another title I expect to post gains: Disney’s Saving Mr. Banks which had a rather middling opening this past weekend at $9.3 million but should benefit from positive word of mouth.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues had a solid opening ($40 million over five days), but it was at the lesser end of expectations. Still, the holiday time frame should prevent it from suffering a large decline. The same can be said for American Hustle, which started strong out of the gate last weekend with $19.1 million.

One thing is for sure: the film calendar doesn’t get more crowded than this. After that, many things are highly uncertain but here’s my best guesses for the Christmas 2013 Top Ten:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 18%)

2. The Wolf of Wall Street

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million ($44.2 million predicted for five-day opening)

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing an increase of 13%)

4. Anchorman: The Legend Continues

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million (representing a drop of 26%)

5. American Hustle

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)

6. Grudge Match

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million ($24.5 million predicted for five-day opening)

7. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million ($19.3 million predicted for five-day opening)

8. 47 Ronin

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million ($17.8 million predicted for five-day opening)

9. Saving Mr. Banks

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing an increase of 15%)

10. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

These predictions would leave Justin Bieber’s Believe out of the top ten and likely in the #12 slot behind the second weekend of Walking with Dinosaurs.

And there you have it! My predictions for Christmas 2013. Of course, I’ll have updates on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week with final results Sunday. And have yourself a Merry little Christmas, my friends!

 

Box Office Results: December 13-15

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t manage to reach the heights of its predecessor last year as it opened to $73.6 million over the weekend, below my $77.9M prediction. In my post about Smaug, I opined that anything below $75M would likely be considered a letdown and it must be noted that Smaug earned over $10M less than An Unexpected Journey did last year. We’ll see how it holds up over the next couple of weeks.

With a smaller than expected decline in weekend #3, Disney’s Frozen was second with $22.1 million, above my $17.1M estimate. The animated tale has earned $164 million so far and should eventually surpass $250M mark.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was the disappointing performance of Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas. Audiences interest in the character is clearly waning as Christmas posted the lowest opening of any pic in the franchise with $16 million. This is less than half of my generous $33.7M prediction. No Madea flick had made less than $25 million in their openings until now so this is a considerably weak debut for Mr. Perry and company.

Rounding out the top five: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at four with $13.1 million (just above my $12.3M prediction) and Thor: The Dark World at five with $2.7 million (just above my $2.5M projection).

Be sure to check the blog today as my predictions will roll in on Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, and Walking with Dinosaurs.

Box Office Predictions: December 13-15

Two very different sequels open this Friday at multiplexes and, collectively, I’m predicting they will inject over $110 million in business to the box office. We have The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas debuting and you can read my detailed posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/the-hobbit-the-desolation-of-smaug-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/08/tyler-perrys-a-madea-christmas-box-office-prediction/

I would anticipate the top two of the past couple of weekends – Disney’s Frozen and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – to drop to third and fourth. In the five spot, I expect a bigger fall for this weekend’s #3 Out of the Furnace than the current #4 Thor: The Dark World. This should allow the Marvel property to just drop one place into fifth.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

3. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

I’ll have an update posted on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday!

Box Office Results: December 6-8

As predicted, Disney’s animated Frozen overtook The Hunger Games: Catching Fire for the top spot at the box office this weekend, but both titles earned a bit less than my estimates.

Frozen took in $31.6 million in its second weekend for #1, below my $34.8M prediction. Disney’s feature has made $134 million since its Thanksgiving opening. An eventual gross in the $250M range seems likely.

In weekend #3, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire dropped to second with an estimated $27 million, under my $32M prediction. This massive sequel has earned $336M since its debut and still looks on pace to become 2013’s highest grossing picture.

Out of the Furnace, the crime thriller with Christian Bale, flopped with only $5.3 million for third place. I gave it a bit too much credit with a $9.6M prediction. Rounding out the top five: Thor: The Dark World in fourth with $4.7 million (just under my $5.2M estimate) and Delivery Man in fifth with $3.7 million (just over my $3.5M estimate).

Be sure to check the blog later when I’ll roll out my predictions for two very different sequels – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug and Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas.

2013: The Year of Jennifer Lawrence

This evening, I begin a six-part series focusing on six performers – three actors, three actresses – who had major impacts in the world of film in 2013. As you may have noticed, the year is winding down and soon enough we’ll have a bevy of Top Ten movie lists from critics and awards nominations being released.

So which actors shined the most this year and had significant impacts either at the box office or for awards consideration (or both)? We start with what I believe is the obvious choice – Jennifer Lawrence.

The actress began the calendar year with David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook expanding nationwide (it was released in late 2012). The film captured the hearts of moviegoers to the tune of a truly impressive $132 domestic box office take. It also garnered the attention of Oscar voters – so much so that its actors (Lawrence, Bradley Cooper, Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver) were nominated in all four acting categories at the ceremony.

However, it was only Lawrence that was victorious as she claimed the Best Actress trophy. This was only two years after her first nomination for the indie favorite Winter’s Bone in 2010. At age 22, she had received two Best Actress nominations and one win.

Lawrence’s 2012 (with that Silver Linings performance) was equally impressive. She starred in a little something called The Hunger Games as Katniss Everdeen which opened in March 2012 and grossed an astonishing $408 million. In fall of ’12, even her critically panned horror flick House at the End of the Street took in a respectable $42 million, more than six times the cost of its meager budget.

If 2012 seemed impossible for Lawrence to improve upon, she somehow has managed to do it. First – the aforementioned Oscar win. And now – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, the eagerly awaited sequel that opened two weeks ago and looks on its way to becoming the year’s top domestic grosser (it should eventually surpass Iron Man 3). As if its spectacular box office performance wasn’t enough, Catching Fire has been regarded by critics and audiences as an upgrade over the original.

And now there’s American Hustle. The actress has reteamed with Silver Linings director Russell along with Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, and Jeremy Renner. The late 70s/early 80s crime drama isn’t out until December 18th, but already Lawrence’s work is being singled out as a highlight. An Oscar nomination for Supporting Actress seems a lock and it’s quite possible that she’ll win her second Academy Award in consecutive years. This is a feat not often accomplished (the last to do it was Tom Hanks in 1993/1994).

If that doesn’t constitute an amazing year in film, I dunno what does. Amazingly, Lawrence’s 2014 looks just as bright. She could collect another Oscar in the spring, she’ll return as Mystique in May’s X-Men: Days of Future Past, and headline the third installment of The Hunger Games franchise, Mockingjay – Part I, in November. She’s also filmed the Depression era drama Serena with her Silver Linings costar Bradley Cooper. It has yet to receive a release date, but expect it in 2014 as well.

My series on performers who had an excellent 2013 will continue tomorrow with one of America’s most trusted actors who returned to form this year as a Captain and a world famous studio head.

Box Office Predictions: December 6-8

The post Thanksgiving box office weekend is usually a fairly sluggish one and there’s only one new title joining the fray – the Christian Bale crime thriller Out of the Furnace. You can read my full prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/01/out-of-the-furnace-box-office-prediction/

Unless it majorly underwhelms (which is somewhat possible), Furnace is pretty much assured the #3 spot for its debut. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen appear destined to duke it out for the #1 slot.

Catching Fire is entering its third weekend and post Thanksgiving blockbusters typically drop below 50% in December’s first weekend. For instance, 2011 and 2012’s Twilight entries dipped 60% in their third frames over the same weekend. Catching Fire may not drop quite that far, but it should be close.

On the other hand, Disney’s Frozen opened at #2 over Turkey Day weekend with the best opening for the holiday of all time. Its chances of not falling over 50% seem better and, if that happens, Frozen would catapault to first and Fire would fall to second.

Thor: The Dark World should be fourth in its fifth weekend while Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man and The Best Man Holiday should fight it out for the five spot. And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $34.8 million (representing a drop of 48%)

2. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 57%)

3. Out of the Furnance

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll have final results on the blog this Sunday!

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Box Office Predictions: November 22-24

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.

The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $166.7 million

2. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Box Office Prediction

In March of 2012, The Hunger Games opened to a massive $152.5 million domestic opening weekend and finished with a gargantuan $408M domestic haul. To say its sequel Catching Fire is eagerly awaited is quite the understatement.

Director Gary Ross is out and I Am Legend director Francis Lawrence is in. Of course, it’s a different Lawrence (Jennifer) and her costars Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Stanley Tucci, Donald Sutherland, Lenny Kravitz and newcomers Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jeffrey Wright that audiences are eager to see. Catching Fire comes with a much bigger $140 million budget compared to the $78M price tag for the original.

Reviews suggest this adaptation of Suzanne Collins novel is very faithful and the film sits an impressive 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Just how big could this be? Well, big. The sequel is likely to open larger than its predecessor, which currently holds the #6 all-time highest domestic opening. There are some who believe it could debut above $175 million which would put it at #2 all-time, above this year’s $174M opening of Iron Man 3. I’m not going that high, but would certainly say it’s possible. I believe a debut in the mid to high 160’s is the most plausible scenario. My prediction would put The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at #4 all-time – just below the $169M haul of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 and above the $160M opening of The Dark Knight Rises.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opening weekend prediction: $166.7 million

For my prediction on Delivery Man with Vince Vaughn, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/