All Eyez on Me Box Office Prediction

The life and times of the iconic late rapper Tupac Shakur gets the big screen treatment next weekend when All Eyez on Me drops. Taking its title from his heralded Death Row album in 1996, the pic casts Demetrius Shipp Jr. as Shakur with a supporting cast that includes Kat Graham, Lauren Cohan, Danai Gurira, and Jamal Woolard (reprising his role as the Notorious B.I.G. that he played in 2009’s Notorious). Benny Boom, known mostly for making rap videos, directs.

All eyez may be on whether this manages to over perform and nab a possible third place showing over Rough Night. The chances of this coming anywhere near Straight Outta Compton territory (which made $60 million out of the gate) seems highly unlikely. However, a gross in the range of the aforementioned Notorious seems feasible. That film made $23 million over the long MLK weekend over eight years ago and $20 million for the traditional weekend.

That’s where I’ll put Tupac’s biopic, which puts it just over Rough Night for third place (and behind Cars 3 and Wonder Woman).

All Eyez on Me opening weekend prediction: $24.4 million

For my Cars 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/07/cars-3-box-office-prediction/

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

Cars 3 Box Office Prediction

Pixar has its entry in the summer box office derby as Cars 3 opens next weekend. The threequel will have the honor of being the highest grossing animated sequel of the season for two weeks until Despicable Me 3 arrives.

Owen Wilson, Larry the Cable Guy, Cristela Alonzo, Armie Hammer, Bonnie Hunt, Kerry Washington, and Nathan Fillion are among the actors lending their voices to the project. Reportedly, the late Paul Newman (who contributed to the original) will also be heard in flashback sequences.

The auto themed comedy franchise is not considered among the best that Pixar has produced. The 2006 original opened to $60 million with an eventual $244 million domestic haul. The 2011 sequel premiered a bit higher at $66 million, but earned considerably less overall at $191 million. That’s rather low compared to what Pixar has done in recent years. It’s also worth noting that Cars 2 is generally considered the worst of the 17 pictures the studio has produced thus far.

Bottom line: summer ’17 Pixar will be nothing compared to summer ’16 Pixar when Finding Dory opened to $135 million and ended up being the season’s highest grosser at $486 million. I’ll predict Cars 3 does manage to make just under what the first did 11 years ago and eventually struggles to make $191 million made by its predecessor.

Cars 3 opening weekend prediction: $57.8 million

For my Rough Night prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/08/rough-night-box-office-prediction/

For my All Eyez on Me prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/all-eyez-on-me-box-office-prediction/

For my 47 Meters Down prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/09/47-meters-down-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: June 9-11

Tom Cruise will attempt to take on the bonanza that is Wonder Woman this weekend and it will probably come up short. Universal monster pic The Mummy opens wide along with criticality lauded horror flick It Comes at Night and military themed biopic Megan Leavey. You can read my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/01/the-mummy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/02/it-comes-at-night-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/06/05/megan-leavey-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Cruise looks headed for a second place showing as I foresee Wonder Woman falling just a bit over 50%. There is a chance that Mummy over performs and gets around $50 million, but I’m not seeing it right now.

Captain Underpants should be in third while the four spot could be a battle between Pirates of the Caribbean in its third frame and It Comes at Night. The latter also has a chance to exceed my estimate, but I’ve got under double digits.

As for Megan Leavey, I’m anticipating a muted premiere at $3.3 million, which would put it in 8th place.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Wonder Woman

Predicted Gross: $49.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. The Mummy

Predicted Gross: $34.7 million

3. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. It Comes at Night

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million

Box Office Results (June 2–4)

DC had a critical hit and now they have a huge box office smash as Wonder Woman lassoed $103.2 million, topping my $98.3M projection. It set the all-time opening record for a female directed motion picture. The road ahead looks bright with very positive word of mouth.

Captain Underpants was second and came in on the lower end of expectations with $23.8 million, under my $27.4M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale will hope for smallish drops in the weekends ahead, but there’s competition coming with Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3 this month.

Pirates of the Caribbean dropped to third with $22 million, in line with my $21.6M prediction for a two-week total of $115M.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 was fourth with $9.8 million (I said $10M) for $355M overall.

Baywatch held up a bit better than I figured in weekend #2, placing fifth with $8.7 million compared to my $7.5M forecast. It’s earned $41M.

That does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie Box Office Prediction

Dreamworks is the first studio with an animated feature for the summer season as Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie hits screens next weekend. Based on a series of well-known childrens books by Dav Pilkey, the film features the voices of Kevin Hart, Ed Helms, Nick Kroll, Jordan Peele, and Thomas Middleditch. The screenplay comes from Nicholas Stoller, who made last year’s under performing Storks.

Underpants is certainly more of a question mark than some of the other animated tales this season – namely Cars 3 and Despicable Me 3, both of which arrive in June. That said, Dreamworks has a mostly solid history of producing hits. 2014’s Mr. Peabody & Sherman debuted to $32 million, 2015’s Home exceeded expectations with $52 million, Trolls made $46 million last fall, and The Boss Baby opened to $50 million in March, outpacing its projections.

While I don’t see this effort getting past $40 million (though it could happen), I believe a high 20s to maybe low 30s debut is in the cards as the studio likely hopes for a sequel (based on the title).

Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie opening weekend prediction: $27.4 million

For my Wonder Woman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/25/wonder-woman-box-office-prediction/

2016: The Year of Disney

Towards the end of each calendar year, I’ve put up posts honoring the people who have captured our movie going attention during that time period. 2015 was the first year that I honored a feeling in one post as opposed to an individual. Last year, it was Nostalgia and it fit due to the box office potency of titles like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Jurassic World, among others.

In 2016, the initial posting is again not a human, but a studio. And it’s Disney. The Mouse Factory has set the all-time record for studio grosses in a calendar year and its list of blockbusters is something to behold.

Currently, Disney is responsible for half of the top ten grossing pictures of the year and that list will grow to six very shortly with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story.

Let’s break it down: Finding Dory ($486 million) is #1 with Captain America: Civil War ($408M) at second. Rogue is likely to join the top three for a Disney trifecta atop the year.

#4 is The Jungle Book ($364M). #6 is Zootopia ($341M) and #9 is Doctor Strange ($226M). Moana is sitting at #11 right now with $162M.

In short, the studio is making a killing on their three most valued properties: animation and the live-action adaptations of them, Marvel Studios, and the Star Wars franchise. That is bound to continue in 2017 with animated features like Cars 3 and Coco. As for the live-action remakes, expect March’s Beauty and the Beast to do boffo business. On the Marvel side, we have Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Thor: Ragnorak. And of the Star Wars juggernaut, we have Episode VIII (still untitled) invading theaters in December.

Of course, not everything Disney released this year was a smash. There were high-profile flops like Alice Through the Looking Glass and The BFG. Also, Pete’s Dragon did decent business, but nothing compared to its other renderings of the animated classics. In 2017, a big question mark is whether or not they can successfully reinvigorate another once popular series with Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.

Those few disappointments aside, it was a watershed year for Disney and they deservedly get the first mention in my year end honors.

My 2016 posts will continue tomorrow…