Tag: Captain America: Brave New World

Oscar Predictions – The Fantastic Four: First Steps

The Fantastic Four: First Steps stomps into multiplexes this Friday as the 37th MCU pic’s review embargo lifted today. Directed by Matt Shakman, the fourth Four feature in the 21st century (and second reboot) is easily generating the strongest reviews of the quartet. Vanessa Kirby, Pedro Pascal, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Joseph Quinn are the title heroes with Julia Garner, Natasha Lyonne, Paul Walter Hauser, and Ralph Ineson providing support.

The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 86% with a 65 Metacritic. That’s slightly behind its Marvel predecessor Thunderbolts* (88% RT/68 Meta). Yet of the three MCU adventures of 2025 (Captain America: Brave New World being the other), this likely stands the best shot at Oscar attention. That’s in the Visual Effects race which are being widely praised. As we’ve discussed on the blog multiples times, MCU flicks get nominated in VE and don’t win. They are 0 for 14 beginning with 2008’s Iron Man. I don’t expect Steps to be their inaugural victor, especially with Avatar: Fire and Ash on the way.

Another aspect being singled out is Michael Giacchino’s score. Black Panther is the only MCU title that’s been nominated for Original Score (it also won). Giacchino is a two-time nominee for Ratatouille and Up for which he took gold). Fantastic might be a long shot in the musical composition competition though I wouldn’t completely discount it. Same goes for its 1960s production design. The likeliest scenario is a sole VE nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

May 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.

The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.

Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.

Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.

Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:

1. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $24 million

3. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.

Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.

The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.

Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

Thunderbolts* looks to light up the box office as it officially kicks off the summer season on May 2nd. Like many recent cinematic summers, the MCU has the first tentpole and it’s the franchise’s 36th flick in 17 years. Jake Schreier directs the mashup of Marvel heroes with a cast including Florence Pugh, Sebastian Stan, Wyatt Russell, Olga Kurylenko, Lewis Pullman, Geraldine Viswanathan, David Harbour, Hannah John-Kamen, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

The MCU ruled the 2024 season with Deadpool & Wolverine with its $211 million premiere and $636 million overall domestic haul. Thunderbolts* might be looking at roughly a third of that debut out of the gate. February predecessor Captain America: Brave New World rolled out with $88 million and familiarity with its title character might make its number unattainable for this new crew.

That said the early buzz is stronger than what World experienced so I believe high 70s or low 80s is certainly attainable.

Thunderbolts* opening weekend prediction: $79.3 million

March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction
Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction
The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood hopes that Disney’s live-action remake of Snow White can wake up a sleepy box office this weekend while The Alto Knights with a double dose of Robert De Niro also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Snow White Box Office Prediction
The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

With Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen, there’s no doubt Snow White will dwarf all competitors. The question is by how much. A best case scenario might be around $60 million though it could bottom out in the mid to high 30s. I’m giving it high 40s. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s not that happy a result for the Mouse House considering most of their other live-action retellings far outpaced that figure.

Mr. De Niro portrays two real-life gangsters in the period piece Knights. Warner Bros hasn’t given it much of a marketing push. My lower to mid single digits forecast could put it anywhere from second to sixth.

Holdovers Novocaine (the current champ), Black Bag, Captain America: Brave New World, and Mickey 17 should all generate similar earnings. In fact, I have #2 and #6 separated by only half a million bucks. That’s with Novocaine dwindling just over 50% and Black Bag falling in the high 40s in its sophomore frame. Captain America is likely to experience the smallest decline.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

3. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

4. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. The Alto Knights

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

6. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (March 14-16)

It was a painful weekend in multiplexes as no feature topped $10 million. Novocaine with Jack Quaid had muted bragging rights in 1st with $8.8 million. Failing to match my $9.8 million prediction, look for this to fade quickly with a meh B Cinemascore.

Also sporting a B Cinemascore was Steven Soderbergh’s Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender. The spy thriller was second with $7.6 million, just over my $7.3 million projection.

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 suffered a considerable 61% drop and was third with $7.4 million. I was a tad more generous to the Robert Pattinson sci-fi satire at $8.1 million. The two-week tally is an unimpressive $33 million.

Captain America: Brave New World was fourth at $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a five-week total of $185 million and $200 million domestic looking achievable.

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie rounded out the top five with a mere $3.1 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for the animated offering.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Jack Quaid is unconventional hero Novocaine, Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender carry the romantic thriller Black Bag from Steven Soderbergh, and Daffy Duck and Porky Pig headline The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the new trio here:

Novocaine Box Office Prediction
Black Bag Box Office Prediction
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie Box Office Prediction

It could be a battle for the #1 spot. I’m projecting no feature will top $10 million though I believe Novocaine has the best shot and that it manages first place with only mild bragging rights.

I foresee Mickey 17 suffering a significant drop in its sophomore frame after a so-so start (more on that below). A mid to high 50s plummet would put it in second or maybe even third.

Black Bag, generating impressive reviews, could outdo my third place number but the adult drama should face trouble bringing in a younger crowd.

Speaking of younger crowds, Looney Tunes hopes to cash in on its well-known animated stars. Yet this seems to be severely under marketed and I have it in fifth behind Captain America: Brave New World.

Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:

1. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

3. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

Box Office Results (March 7-9)

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 ended Captain America‘s three-week #1 reign with $19 million. Given the reported price tag of around $120 million, that’s not a result to brag about. However, the sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson did surpass my $17.9 million prediction.

Captain America: Brave New World fell to second with $8.3 million. I was on target at $8.4 million. The MCU adventure now stands at $176 million.

Last Breath was third with $4 million, a bit lower than my $4.6 million forecast for the survival flick. The two-week take is $14 million.

The Monkey was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $3.4 million) for $31 million after three weeks.

Paddington in Peru rounded out the top five at $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the leading quintet. The sequel’s four-week gross is $36 million.

Finally, Rule Breakers from Angel Studios stumbled in ninth with a paltry $1.5 million. I was far more generous at $3.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Mickey 17, Bong Joon-ho’s follow=up to his Oscar juggernaut Parasite, looks to rule the charts this weekend and end the three-week reign of Captain America: Brave New World. We also have Rule Breakers from Angel Studios and you can peruse my prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Mickey 17 Box Office Prediction
Rule Breakers Box Office Prediction

With a forecast in the upper teens (which isn’t oh so fine), I’m not as optimistic as some others on Mickey 17. The sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson should benefit from the Joon-ho goodwill, but I’m not convinced that equates to a gross north of $20 million.

As for Rule Breakers with Phoebe Waller-Bridge, lower to mid single digits could place it in fourth or fifth with third being the best case scenario if it exceeds my projection.

Captain America: Brave New World should slide to second with a low to mid 40s dip while Last Breath and The Monkey populate the remainder of the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million

2. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

3. Last Breath

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Rule Breakers

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

5. The Monkey

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

It was a three-peat for the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World with $14.8 million added to its coffers. That’s ahead of my $11.8 million guesstimate as the superhero tale has taken in $163 million with $200 million in its domestic sights (though it might fall a little short of that).

Survival thriller Last Breath starring Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu was runner-up with $7.8 million and that tops my glass half empty prediction of $4.8 million. That’s at the better end of its anticipated range.

The Monkey was third in its sophomore outing with $6.4 million, a tad ahead of my $5.7 million call. The horror comedy stands at $24 million after ten days.

Paddington in Peru was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $3.9 million) for $31 million overall after three weeks.

Dog Man rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I went with $3.7 million). The five-week tally is $84 million as it will try and reach $100 million stateside.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 28-March 2 Box Office Predictions

In what should be a quiet box office weekend, survival thriller Last Breath with Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu hopes to find an audience while Captain America: Brave New World seeks to three-peat. You can find my detailed prediction post on Breath here:

Last Breath Box Office Prediction

Despite a troubling 68% sophomore plummet, Captain America should manage a third weekend atop the charts due to lack of competition. It may, however, not even reach low teens this time around.

The best case scenario for Breath would be second place, but it could place anywhere from runner-up to fifth depending on drops of holdovers.

The Monkey, with a C+ Cinemascore grade, is likely to experience a heftier decline over family fare offerings Paddington in Peru and Dog Man (though it could remain in second).

Here’s how I see the top five shaking out in a cinematic frame where audiences might be more transfixed by the Oscars:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

2. The Monkey

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

3. Last Breath

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

4. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

5. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Predictions (February 21-23)

As mentioned, the MCU’s 35th feature Captain America: Brave New World cratered in its second outing with a near 70% fall. It made $28.1 million, in line with my $29.6 million call, for a $141 million ten-day overall take.

Horror comedy The Monkey performed toward the lower end of its expected range at $14 million. I was more generous at $18.2 million. Look for it to fade quickly like Companion did.

Holdovers generally went under my forecasts with Paddington in Peru third at $6.5 million compared to my $8.9 million estimate. The two-week total is an underwhelming $25 million.

Dog Man was fourth with $5.8 million, under my $7.1 million prediction for $78 million in its four weeks of release.

Ne Zha 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it listed. The Chinese animated fantsy took in $3 million to bring its two-week tally to $14 million.

Heart Eyes was sixth with a ginormous 73% dip to $2.7 million in its third weekend for $26 million in the bank.

Finally, The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi was another snoozer for Lionsgate in 8th. It made $2.3 million and I projected it at $3 million.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

February 21-23 Box Office Predictions

The Monkey looks to swing a strong second place showing while The Unbreakable Boy hopes to break into the top five this weekend. Captain America: Brave New World should repeat in first. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

The Monkey Box Office Prediction
The Unbreakable Boy Box Office Prediction

Based on a Stephen King short story, The Monkey marks Osgood Perkins’s follow-up to last summer’s surprise hit Longlegs. I have this opening shy of $20 million which would put it in firmly in second.

Father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi seems like it’s getting dumped by distributor Lionsgate and my $3 million estimate puts it outside of the high 5.

Captain America: Brave New World performed in line with expectations over the Valentine’s/Presidents Day long weekend (more on that below). It also received the worst Cinemascore (B-) of any MCU title thus far. That could mean a decline in the mid 60s or even 70% (similar to the drop for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania) could be at hand.

Paddington in Peru and Dog Man should each dip a spot to 3rd and 4th with Heart Eyes rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I envision it playing out:

1. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $29.6 million

2. The Monkey

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Paddington in Peru

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Dog Man

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Heart Eyes

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

Captain America: Brave New World was the 35th Marvel Cinematic Universe experience and it was the 35th to debut atop the charts. The Friday to Sunday traditional weekend gross was $89.8 million with $100 million when factoring in President’s Day. That’s not as commanding as plenty of other MCU fare, but it surpassed my respective $78.9 million and $90.7 million estimates. As mentioned, that troubling audience reaction should mean substantial drops ahead.

Paddington in Peru kicked off in second place with $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million for the four-day compared to my projections of $14.8 million and $17 million. The film is making the bulk of its bounty overseas though it could experience smallish declines in upcoming frames (its Cinemascore was an A).

Dog Man was third with $13.4 million (I said $14.1 million) as the animated tale brought its three-week total to $70 million.

The biggest surprise of the weekend was horror comedy Heart Eyes actually increasing its gross in weekend #2 with $10.8 million for fourth position. My radar was way off as I only had it pegged at $5.8 million. The overall tally stands at $22 million.

Chinese animated fantasy Ne Zha 2 was fifth with $8.3 million and I did not do a projection for it. That towers over its 2019 predecessor which premiered to just over one million.

Finally, Mufasa: The Lion King was sixth with $5.3 million (I said $5 million) for $241 million in its nine weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…