As I continue to catch up on Cannes titles that screened days ago, Latvian animator Gints Zilbalodis is receiving acclaim for his full-length feature debut Flow. The tale of a feline who escapes a flood and must adapt to a new environment, this is the filmmaker’s follow-up to his praised short film Away.
Reviews are strong for Flow with a 100% RT rating. It might be all about the distribution deal for this one. If a streamer or studio with campaigning talents pick it up, this could be catnip for Academy voters in the Animated Feature competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Cannes Film Festival is complete and it has vaulted some pictures into contention while essentially eliminating others. Those on the others list include Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 from Kevin Costner, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
On the other hand, Andrea Arnold’s Bird and Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice still have life, but certainly are not sure things. Same goes for Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos and Jacques Audiard’s Emila Pérez (I’m pretty high on its chances though).
The film that did itself the most good is Sean Baker’s Anora which took the Palme d’Or over the long weekend. It now climbs into my Picture, Director, and Actress (Mikey Madison) fields.
While the Iranian drama The Seed of the Sacred Fig by Mohammad Rasoulof is unlikely to be submitted for International Feature Film, there’s a chance it contends in BP and you’ll see it listed here for the first time as a possibility.
Let’s get into all of it and you can anticipate the next update in a couple of weeks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (-1)
17. Dìdi (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Hit Man (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Bird (PR: 13) (-6)
20. Maria (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Here (PR: 25) (+4)
22. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
23. The Nickel Boys (PR: 24) (+1)
24. A Real Pain (PR: 20) (-4)
25. Civil War (PR: 21) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 11) (-2)
14. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2
Andrea Arnold, Bird
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 4) (E)
5. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (E)
7. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Supporting
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, We Live in Time
Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (E)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 14) (E)
15. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 10) (-5)
Dropped Out:
Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Catherine Keener, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 10) (E)
11. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Robin Wright, Here (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Erin Kellyman, Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (moved to Actress)
Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Michael Shannon, The End (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Brendan Gleeson, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Mohammad Rasoulof, an acclaimed Iranian filmmaker living in exile, is garnering acclaim for The Seed of the Sacred Fig at it Cannes unveiling. Neon has already picked up the distribution rights to the nearly three hour political thriller. It won a Special Jury prize at the festival. Soheila Golestani, Missagh Zareh, Mahsa Rostami, and Satereh Maleki star.
With a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and a lengthy standing O in the French Riviera, Fig might be the type of International Feature Film that the Academy would honor with a nom. There’s a caveat. Iran will clearly not submit it as a contender. Just this month the nation sentenced Rasoulof to eight years in prison. However, he was able to flee to Germany and made the trek to France for his premiere. Either one of those European countries could theoretically put this up for consideration.
If so, Seed stands a chance at IFF but that’s unclear at press time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Cannes Film Festival of 2024 is complete and, as always, it made the Oscar picture a little clearer with potential nominees as well as films that won’t be on the radar screen based on their French buzz.
One picture that did itself the most favors is Sean Baker’s Anora. The latest dramedy from The Florida Project drew raves and was named the Palme d’Or recipient (the highest Cannes prize). Three of the past four Palme winners (Parasite, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall) ended up with a BP nod from the Academy.
The film’s leading lady Mikey Madison did not take Best Actress. That instead went to a quartet of performers (Karla Sofia Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, Zoe Saldaña) from Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, which also entered the BP conversation. It is uncertain at this point whether Gascón or Saldaña, in particular, will be slotted in lead Actress or supporting come Oscar time. I currently have Gascón in the latter and Saldaña in the former and both have solid shots at inclusion.
In addition to Madison’s legit chances for an Actress recognition from the Academy, Demi Moore announced herself as a hopeful for her first nom in the heralded body horror tale The Substance from Coralie Fargeat. She is your Cannes honoree for Best Screenplay.
Anora‘s Sean Baker did not take Best Director (Cannes spreads the love). Miguel Gomes took that prize for the period drama Grand Tour. I wouldn’t pencil him in for a Director nom from the Academy. You have to go back to Pawel Pawlikowski and Cold War in 2018 for the previous Cannes winner who nabbed an Oscar mention. That is the only example in the 21st century.
Jesse Plemons is the Best Actor from Kinds of Kindness. Yorgos Lanthimos’s latest got its share of appreciative notices and I do believe it could contend for two or three Oscars. Plemons might be one of the benefactors.
As far as other acting possibilities, The Apprentice didn’t pick up any hardware. I do think Sebastian Stan (as Donald Trump in the 70s and 80s) and Jeremy Strong (as his mentor Roy Cohn) entered the Actor and Supporting Actor discussion. I also wouldn’t discount Nykiya Adams and Barry Keoghan in Actress and Supporting Actor for Andrea Arnold’s Bird.
Of course not all Cannes debuts lead to high praise. Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1, and Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada all lessened their viability moving forward.
Keep an eye on the blog for new post Cannes projections in the six major races!
A fight between two elementary school boys leads to other drama in the Norwegian film Armand from first time director Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel. It has premiered at Cannes prior to its planned September bow in its native land. Domestic distribution is pending. Renate Reinsve, who wowed critics in 2021’s The Worst Person in the World, stars alongside Ellen Dorrit Petersen, Thea Lambrechts Vaulen, Endre Hellesveit, Øystein Røger, and Vera Veijovic.
There is praise for Reinsve’s work and the cinematography, but some of the reviews are tempered in their enthusiasm. The RT score is 75%. It wouldn’t surprise me if Norway goes with Armand as their selection for International Feature Film. The aforementioned Worst Person was a contender in the race three years back and lost to Drive My Car. Prior to that, you have to go back to 2012 and Kon-Tiki for the previous Norwegian nominee (they’re 0 for 6 total as far as wins).
Perhaps Armand can make the shortlist, but I don’t see it in the final quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ahead of its May 31st bow on Disney+, Jim Henson Idea Man has premiered at Cannes. The high profile doc chronicles the life of the famed puppeteer including his creation of Sesame Street and the Muppets. Oscar winner Ron Howard directs.
It is a safe assumption that this will be one of the most viewed documentaries of 2024. Critical reaction is appreciative though some of the early reviews aren’t overly glowing. The RT score is 88%.
The voters in this particular branch of the Academy often don’t go for pics based on iconic figures. Two recent examples include Won’t You Be My Neighbor? from 2018 and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie from last year. I suspect the story may play out the same for this. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Italian filmmaker Paolo Sorrentino’s filmography has experienced success at the Oscars. In 2013, The Great Beauty took the prize for International Feature Film (then titled Best Foreign Language Film). 2021’s The Hand of God was up for IFF and ultimately fell short to Drive My Car. His latest is Parthenope which has premiered at Cannes.
The Naples set drama stars newcomer Celeste Dalla Porta in the title role alongside Stefenia Sandrelli, Gary Oldman, Silvio Orlando, Luisa Ranieri, and Isabella Ferrari.
Reviews from the Riviera aren’t pretty with many suggesting it’s the auteur’s darkest hour… or rather two hours and change. With a Rotten Tomatoes score of 15%, I doubt Italy will bother to submit this as their contender in the international competition. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mikey Madison is best known for the Scream reboot two years ago, but awards voters seemed poised to become more familiar with her thanks to Anora. From The Florida Project and Red Rocket writer/director Sean Baker, Madison is the title character Brooklyn escort who enters into a romance and business situation with a Russian oligarch played by Mark Eydelshteyn. The supporting cast includes Yuriy Borisov, Karren Karagulian, Vache Tovmasyan, and Darya Ekamasova.
Its premiere at Cannes has drawn some of the best word-of-mouth of any film at the festival with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The two leads are being heralded with Madison especially being singled out for a breakout role. I have not had her in the mix in my Best Actress projections. That is going to change and do not be surprised if she’s in my high five when I update predictions this weekend. Baker, who probably came close to an Original Screenplay nod in 2017 for Florida, could contend.
Best Picture could be a stretch though Madison has immediately vaulted into the conversation as critics should be screaming her name throughout the season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When it comes to Academy possibilities for Kevin Costner’s latest directorial epic, think The Postman more than Dances with Wolves. The latter from 1990 was up for 12 Oscars and took home 7 including Picture and Director. The former was a flop at multiplexes and on the awards circuit.
His latest is Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One and it has premiered at Cannes ahead of its June 28th theatrical bow. The Western is not only directed by Costner, but he stars and cowrites what is a mostly self-financed project. The large supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Danny Huston, Duval Branch, Jena Malone, Abbey Lee, Jamie Campbell Bower, Owen Crow Shoe, Tatanka Means, Luke Wilson, Ella Hunt, Will Patton, Isabelle Fuhrman, Jeff Fahey, and Thomas Haden Church.
I kind of thought Cannes seemed like an odd launch pad for the Yellowstone lead’s first behind the camera big screen production since 2003’s Open Range. Critics have not been kind as evidenced by the 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
I’m not sure how much the reviews will hurt its commercial prospects. This could be effective adult counter programming in the summer months and Costner’s visibility from his hit show won’t hurt. Chapter 2 will follow in mid-August. Who knows? Maybe it will garner better notices from cinematic pundits. You can close the book on any Oscar buzz for this first chapter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Awards prospects for Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice might have less to do with today’s Cannes premiere or whatever date the eventual distributor places it for domestic release. November 5th might be the biggest factor in whether it gets various nominations. That’s the date of the Presidential election and Oscar voters could react based on the results of whether the 45th POTUS becomes the 47th POTUS.
Set in the 1970s and 80s, this is essentially a Donald Trump origin story about ruthless attorney Roy Cohn’s influence on his life. Sebastian Stan is Trump with Jeremy Strong as Cohn. Costars include Maria Bakalova as Ivana and Martin Donovan as family patriarch Fred.
Reviews trickling in from France are somewhat all over the map. Yet compliments for the men playing Trump and Cohn is mostly universal. Mr. Stan’s biggest competition for a final five slot in Actor could be himself as he’s also being lauded for A Different Man. It rolled out at Sundance and is slated for a September domestic bow. Strong, an Emmy winner for Succession, could book his first Academy recognition in Supporting Actor. In fact, he might be in competition with his costar/onscreen sibling from that acclaimed HBO show in Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain). As for Bakalova, a previous nominee for the Borat sequel in 2020, her role is probably too small to contend.
If Stan and Strong are up for their roles, it greatly increases the chances of BP inclusion despite the varying reactions. I am skeptical that Abbasi (maker of international critical darlings Border and Holy Spider) or the screenplay are up (the latter would be more feasible). Yet it might be the general election ballot that ultimately chooses the viability of The Apprentice. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 