Tag: Cannes Film Festival

Oscar Predictions – Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is the eighth feature in the franchise that kicked off nearly 30 years ago and looks to be Tom Cruise’s closing adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt. Christopher McQuarrie returns to direct his fourth M:I entry in a row. The supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Henry Czerny, Angela Bassett, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Holt McCallany, Janet McTeer, Nick Offerman, Hannah Waddingham, Shea Whigham, Greg Tarzan Davis, Charles Parnell, and Katy O’Brian.

Opening over Memorial Day weekend, Reckoning has premiered at Cannes to mostly decent reviews with a note of caution. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88% with Metacritic at 71. The latter score is telling as the two previous installments were at 87 (2018’s Fallout) and 81 (2023’s Dead Reckoning). While praising the action sequences, there are critical complaints about its length and excessive reliance on exposition.

Any hope that Final Reckoning could achieve above-the-line awards nominations as the series bids farewell has fallen by the wayside. On the other hand, predecessor Dead Reckoning was the first Mission to generate Oscar nods and they were in Sound and Visual Effects. This could do the same with Sound as perhaps a better possibility. As you may have seen, the Academy Awards will implement a category honoring stunt ensembles. However, that won’t be until 2028. The Mission‘s probably would’ve flourished in those competitions but it wasn’t to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Surfer

The Surfer was first screened nearly a year ago at Cannes as it makes it way to screens on May 2nd. From Vivarium director Lorcan Finnegan, Nicolas Cage stars in what numerous critics are saying is a solid B-movie psychological thriller. The supporting cast includes Julian McMahon, Nic Cassim, Miranda Tapsell, and Alexander Bertrand.

The Aussie set production stands at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with Metacritic at 68. Reviews are singling out Cage’s performance. In recent years, he’s flirted with awards inclusion via Pig and Dream Scenario (it’s been over two decades since his last nom for Adaptation). Don’t expect The Surfer to catch a wave of momentum despite appreciation for its lead and his reportedly bonkers yet effective work. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Shrouds

David Cronenberg’s body horror thriller The Shrouds is out on the coasts today before an expansion next weekend. Vincent Cassel, Diane Kruger, Guy Pearce, and Sandrine Holt star in the Canadian filmmaker’s latest which played at Cannes and Toronto last year.

In the mid 2010s, the director had a minor awards run when 2005’s A History of Violence received Oscar nods for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Adapted Screenplay and Viggo Mortensen was up for lead Actor in 2007’s Eastern Promises. In recent years, Cronenberg projects Cosmopolis, Maps to the Stars, and Crimes of the Future have not been in the conversation.

That should hold true for The Shrouds as well with its 69% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actress

And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:

98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Actor
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress
98th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.

Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.

This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.

Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, Vie privée

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

Oscars: The Case of Mikey Madison in Anora

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Actress and that’s Mikey Madison in Sean Baker’s Anora. If you missed my posts covering Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), they’re linked at the bottom.

Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:

None

The Case for Mikey Madison:

She’s the titular character in arguably the Best Picture frontrunner. and Cannes Palme d’Or recipient. The 25-year-old has been nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. Just yesterday, she won the BAFTA in an unexpected development over the favored Demi Moore (The Substance).

The Case Against Mikey Madison:

Her BAFTA trophy was a bit of a surprise because Moore was victorious over her at the Globes and Critics Choice. Moore’s narrative might be too enticing for Academy voters to ignore and they might figure Madison has plenty of time for a return engagement.

The Verdict:

This race definitely seems headed for a showdown between Madison and Moore. All eyes are on SAG this weekend to determine who might have the slight edge.

My Case Of posts will continue with the third hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo in Sing Sing…

Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked
Oscars: The Case of Karla Sofia Gascón in Emilia Pérez

Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first half of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. Next up is Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez.

The Case for Emilia Pérez:

This multi-genre mashup of music and crime mixed with social commentary has been at the forefront of awards attention since it debuted at Cannes last summer and took the Jury Prize. That’s essentially second place to the Palme d’Or which went to Anora. Pérez landed an Academy ceremony leading 13 nominations including Director, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, two in Original Song, and Sound. Precursor nods have been in abundance for BP at Critics Choice, BAFTA, and PGA and Best Ensemble at SAG. Mr. Audiard is in contention at DGA. At the Golden Globes, Pérez beat a field in Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) that included fellow BP nominees Anora, The Substance, and Wicked.

The Case Against Emilia Pérez:

While festival crowds have lauded it, general audiences have not. Pérez sports an 18% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes while the next lowest among the BP hopefuls is The Substance at 75%. If you’re not buying the Tomato measuring accuracy of that stat, the critics aren’t over the moon either. The RT score of 73% is the least of the bunch with the next lowest being A Complete Unknown at 80%. The 71 Metacritic rating is second to bottom with Unknown at 70. There’s also the Netflix factor. The distributor has yet to win Best Picture and that could be due to voter aversion to the giant streaming service. Some believe this was a major factor at the 91st Academy Awards when Green Book took top honors over Roma. The movie with the leading amount of nominations has failed to win BP more often than not in the 21st century (14 out of 24 times). Additionally, I’m Still Here (with its unexpected Pic nom) has emerged as serious competition in International Feature Film where Pérez was seen as the easy frontrunner. Then there’s the events of the last week where Karla Sofia Gascón’s troubling social media posts from a few years back resurfaced. The story has dominated headlines in the trades and beyond and could hinder the frontrunner status it has held with pundits.

The Verdict:

Obviously a lot to unpack here. I have never had Pérez 1st in my BP rankings, but it’s undeniably a major threat to win. I fully understand why many do have it above the others (especially after the Globe victory). Yet for the lengthy information contained above in Case Against, I’m highly hesitant to push the chips in for it.

My Case Of posts will continue with I’m Still Here…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two

Oscar Predictions: The Girl with the Needle

The Academy voters have been very tolerant of the Dutch in the 21st century when it comes to the International Feature Film race. Two of their submitted features – 2010’s In a Better World and 2020’s Another Round – won the prize. Six more were nominated: 2006’s After the Wedding, 2012’s A Royal Affair and The Hunt from 2013, A War in 2015, 2016’s Land of Mine, and 2021’s Flee.

Denmark has chosen the black & white historical true crime thriller The Girl with the Needle as their horse for IFF. From director Magnus von Horn, it premiered at Cannes before playing in Toronto. Vic Carmen Sonne and Trine Dyrholm star. Hitting the coasts on December 6th, Needle drew positive fest reactions with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic.

As I’ve mentioned previously on posts covering submissions in this competition, there are three assumed frontrunners in Emilia Pérez, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and I’m Still Here. Based on its country’s recent track record, Needle is certainly a possibility to fill one of the other two slots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Briarcliff Entertainment is banking on audiences being fired up for The Apprentice when it opens October 11th. The biopic from Ali Abbasi focuses on Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump being mentored in the 70s and 80s by ruthless lawyer Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). Maria Bakalova (as first wife Ivana) and Martin Donovan (as patriarch Fred Trump) costar.

After its premiere at Cannes, it was questionable whether The Apprentice would debut stateside before the November 5th election. The former POTUS and current GOP candidate’s legal team threatened to block its pathway in multiplexes. A distribution deal was reached in August and here we are. Reviews are mostly of thumbs up variety at 76% on RT and 60 on Metacritic. Reactions probably aren’t strong enough to make it a Best Picture contender though Stan and Strong could be in the mix for nods.

The Apprentice‘s biggest hurdle could be a longstanding aversion to political pics when it’s all over TV. For example, 2008’s W. from Oliver Stone underwhelmed with $25 million domestically. Viewers may certainly feel they see enough of the 45th President on their home airwaves.

With a reported theater count of under 1800, this may only reach low single digits.

The Apprentice opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Laapataa Ladies

The nation of India has seen only one of their features (2001’s Lagaan) nominated for Best International Feature Film in the 21st century. Prior to that, you have to go back to 1988 and Salaam Bombay! Some prognosticators (including this one) thought they had a great shot at inclusion this year via All We Imagine as Light. Payal Kapadia’s acclaimed drama has a 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, 93 on Metacritic, and took the Grand Prix (essentially first runner-up) at the Cannes Film Festival behind Anora. There was some suspicion, however, that India might not go with it as their pick due to controversial subject matter.

That was proven correct today as the selection body went with Laapataa Ladies. From Kiran Rao, the dramedy originally was seen at the 2023 Toronto Film Festival. It came out in April on Netflix. The cast includes Nitanshi Goel, Pratibha Ranta, Sparsh Shrivastava, Chhaya Kadam, and Ravi Kishan.

Like Light, the Ladies Tomato meter is also perfect. While certainly positive, the reviews are not near as effusive. Last year, France was seen as dropping the ball by choosing The Taste of Things instead of Anatomy of a Fall. If India’s pick ends up making the shortlist, I’ll be singing a different tune. This does potentially appear to be their unforced error for the 97th Academy Awards. It is reminiscent of the 95th ceremony when India inexplicably decided against RRR and it probably would have made the nominated quintet. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 27-29 Box Office Predictions

While Hasbro’s Transformers One fell short of expectations this past weekend, DreamWorks Animation looks to bring families out in force with The Wild Robot this Friday. We also have Francis Ford Coppola’s long in the works sci-fi epic Megalopolis premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

The Wild Robot Box Office Prediction
Megalopolis Box Office Prediction

I projected a mid 30s start for Transformers and came to regret it (more on that below). I’m estimating the same for The Wild Robot which is generating stronger reviews and comes from a studio whose animated works usually perform well.

As for Megalopolis, it might be a megaflop. Coppola’s passion project premiered at Cannes to plenty of negative reaction. This might do decent business on the coasts, but I don’t expect much interest in between. A mid single digits gross could mean fourth place.

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will drop to second after three weeks on top with a percentage dip in the low to mid 40s. Despite an A Cinemascore grade, Transformers will likely suffer with a low to mid 50s decline due to the Robot competition. Speak No Evil should round out the top five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Transformers One

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

4. Megalopolis

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

5. Speak No Evil

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (September 20-22)

In an upset, moviegoers made Tim Burton’s sequel the champion three times in a row as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice took in $25.9 million. That’s right on target with my $26.7 million forecast as its total has reached $226 million.

Transformers One couldn’t catch on in the runner-up position with $24.6 million. That’s well under my $35.4 million take and it’s another underwhelming result for the franchise behind last year’s Transformers: Rise of the Beasts.

Speak No Evil was third at $5.7 million, a bit shy of my $6.5 million call. The thriller has grossed $21 million after two weeks in multiplexes.

Halle Berry’s survival thriller was another yawner for Lionsgate in fourth with $4.4 million, on pace with my $4.7 million prediction.

Deadpool & Wolverine rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million). In nine outings, 2024’s second largest domestic earner has amassed $627 million.

Finally, I didn’t do a projection for Demi Moore’s critically hailed The Substance. It opened in sixth with a fairly respectable $3.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…