Premiering her directorial debut at Cannes, Kristen Stewart’s The Chronology of Water is making some waves across the pond. Based on a memoir by Lidia Yuknavitch, the romance casts Imogen Poots as the source material’s author with a supporting cast including Thora Birch, Earl Cave, Kim Gordon, and Jim Belushi (!).
A Best Actress nominee for 2021’s Spencer, Stewart is mostly being lauded for her initial inaugural behind the camera effort. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 74. Stateside distribution is in flux, but a deal will likely be secured in France. Poots in particular is drawing a lot of attention though I wonder if she could fit it into what looks (on paper) like a crowded lead Actress field. That might depend on whether a spirited campaign is waged. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Could France’s selection for International Feature come from Texas’s Richard Linklater? Judging from reaction at Cannes, that’s a distinct possibility with Nouvelle Vague. The period piece recounts the filming of the landmark French New Wave pic Breathless with Guillaume Marbeck as director Jean-Luc Godard and Zoey Deutch as star Jean Seberg.
It’s no surprise that viewers in Cannes are appreciating Nouvelle as it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. How it translates outside of its native country remains to be seen. The French have gotten 8 of their contenders for IFF nominated in the 21st century including last year’s Emilia Pérez. You have to go back to 1992 and Indochine for their previous winner.
If this were their pick in the international race, there could be enough support to make the quintet. I’m not sure if branches out anywhere beyond that despite praise for its two leads. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In a six year period from 2010-2016, Jennifer Lawrence received 4 Oscar nominations. There was a Best Actress victory for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook in addition to nods in lead for 2010’s Winter’s Bone and 2015’s Joy and Supporting Actress for 2013’s American Hustle. It’s now been a decade since she was in the awards mix, but Die, My Love could change that. Based on a 2017 novel by Ariana Harwicz, Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin, You Were Never Really Here) helms her first feature in seven years. Lawrence headlines the psychological thriller as a mother suffering from postpartum depression. Robert Pattinson, LaKeith Stanfield, Sissy Spacek, and Nick Nolte costar.
One of the most anticipated Cannes debuts (the stateside drop date is TBD), Die has lived up to expectations of some critics and festival goers. The RT rating is 90% though some reviews and social media feedback suggests this could be tough to audiences to digest. Lawrence’s work, however, might not be ignored. If she becomes a surefire nominee in Actress, Die’s most ardent admirers could propel this to Picture and Director (the sound work is being singled out as well). At the least, its journey is worth monitoring as a fall premiere is likely on the horizon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Germany has an impressive history of International Feature Film nods at the Academy Awards in the 21st century. This includes wins for 2002’s Nowhere in Africa, 2006’s The Lives of Others, and 2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front with nominations for Downfall, Sophie Scholl – The Final Days, The Baader Meinhof Complex, The White Ribbon, Toni Erdmann, Never Look Away, The Teachers’ Lounge, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
Sound of Falling could certainly be the country’s 12th pic to contend in this past two decades plus. Slated for release in Germany this September with stateside distribution pending, the time shifting drama premiered at Cannes. Mascha Schilinski directs her sophomore effort after 2017’s Dark Blue Girl. The cast includes Hanna Heckt, Lena Urzendowsky, Laenie Geiseler, Susanne Wuest, and Lea Drinda.
The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic numbers currently match at an eye catching 91. Reviews particularly praise the direction and camerawork. If Germany submits this as the hopeful for IFF (and that would appear to be a wise move), a spot among the quintet is a major possibility.
Could it garner more attention than that? That might depend on which distributor picks this up for U.S. release and whether Schilinski and the cinematography are focuses of their attention. In a best case scenario, a BP nod could be on the table, but I wouldn’t expect that call when I update my predictions shortly on the blog. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A contemporary Western set during the early days of COVID, Eddington is Ari Aster’s fourth feature which has premiered at Cannes prior to its July 18th stateside release. A24’s topical tale reunites Aster with his Beau Is Afraid lead Joaquin Phoenix along with Pedro Pascal, Luke Grimes, Deirdre O’Connell, Micheal Ward, Austin Butler, and Emma Stone.
The auteur’s career kicked off with Hereditary and Midsommar, two horror experiences that are among the genre’s best reviewed in recent years. Beau had a considerably more polarizing reaction and Eddington appears to be doing the same. Early reviews have this at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 67 Metacritic.
While the strongest reviews are quite strong, the varied buzz from France likely means this won’t be a serious awards contender. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning is the eighth feature in the franchise that kicked off nearly 30 years ago and looks to be Tom Cruise’s closing adventure as IMF agent Ethan Hunt. Christopher McQuarrie returns to direct his fourth M:I entry in a row. The supporting cast includes Hayley Atwell, Ving Rhames, Simon Pegg, Henry Czerny, Angela Bassett, Esai Morales, Pom Klementieff, Holt McCallany, Janet McTeer, Nick Offerman, Hannah Waddingham, Shea Whigham, Greg Tarzan Davis, Charles Parnell, and Katy O’Brian.
Opening over Memorial Day weekend, Reckoning has premiered at Cannes to mostly decent reviews with a note of caution. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88% with Metacritic at 71. The latter score is telling as the two previous installments were at 87 (2018’s Fallout) and 81 (2023’s Dead Reckoning). While praising the action sequences, there are critical complaints about its length and excessive reliance on exposition.
Any hope that Final Reckoning could achieve above-the-line awards nominations as the series bids farewell has fallen by the wayside. On the other hand, predecessor Dead Reckoning was the first Mission to generate Oscar nods and they were in Sound and Visual Effects. This could do the same with Sound as perhaps a better possibility. As you may have seen, the Academy Awards will implement a category honoring stunt ensembles. However, that won’t be until 2028. The Mission‘s probably would’ve flourished in those competitions but it wasn’t to be. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Surfer was first screened nearly a year ago at Cannes as it makes it way to screens on May 2nd. From Vivarium director Lorcan Finnegan, Nicolas Cage stars in what numerous critics are saying is a solid B-movie psychological thriller. The supporting cast includes Julian McMahon, Nic Cassim, Miranda Tapsell, and Alexander Bertrand.
The Aussie set production stands at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes with Metacritic at 68. Reviews are singling out Cage’s performance. In recent years, he’s flirted with awards inclusion via Pig and Dream Scenario (it’s been over two decades since his last nom for Adaptation). Don’t expect The Surfer to catch a wave of momentum despite appreciation for its lead and his reportedly bonkers yet effective work. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
David Cronenberg’s body horror thriller The Shrouds is out on the coasts today before an expansion next weekend. Vincent Cassel, Diane Kruger, Guy Pearce, and Sandrine Holt star in the Canadian filmmaker’s latest which played at Cannes and Toronto last year.
In the mid 2010s, the director had a minor awards run when 2005’s A History of Violence received Oscar nods for Supporting Actor (William Hurt) and Adapted Screenplay and Viggo Mortensen was up for lead Actor in 2007’s Eastern Promises. In recent years, Cronenberg projects Cosmopolis, Maps to the Stars, and Crimes of the Future have not been in the conversation.
That should hold true for The Shrouds as well with its 69% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 59 on Metacritic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and lead actor and they can be found here:
That brings us to Best Actress. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I did not name any of the eventual nominees in my projected quintet (unlike the other acting races where I got at least one or two). Only Karla Sofia Gascón was listed as an other possibility for Emilia Pérez. The eventual winner Mikey Madison (Anora) and fellow nominees Cynthia Erivo (Wicked, whose category placement was uncertain at the time), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) had yet to reach my radar.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we are not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. This was clearly the case last year when Cannes vaulted Madison and Moore into an eventual tight competition for the victory.
This premiere post projects a repeat nod for Ms. Erivo for the second helping of Wicked in as many years and Julia Roberts back in the mix 25 years after taking this prize for Erin Brockovich.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Director up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.
It began with the ten Best Picture contenders and now alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. The BP nominee posts are up and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our third entry in Best Actress and that’s Mikey Madison in Sean Baker’s Anora. If you missed my posts covering Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), they’re linked at the bottom.
Previous Acting Oscar Nominations:
None
The Case for Mikey Madison:
She’s the titular character in arguably the Best Picture frontrunner. and Cannes Palme d’Or recipient. The 25-year-old has been nominated at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. Just yesterday, she won the BAFTA in an unexpected development over the favored Demi Moore (The Substance).
The Case Against Mikey Madison:
Her BAFTA trophy was a bit of a surprise because Moore was victorious over her at the Globes and Critics Choice. Moore’s narrative might be too enticing for Academy voters to ignore and they might figure Madison has plenty of time for a return engagement.
The Verdict:
This race definitely seems headed for a showdown between Madison and Moore. All eyes are on SAG this weekend to determine who might have the slight edge.
My Case Of posts will continue with the third hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo in Sing Sing…
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