Oscar Predictions: Rob Peace

At the Oscars honoring the movies of 2019, the Brits put up Chiwetel Ejiofor’s directorial debut The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind as their selection for International Feature Film. The Academy passed it up. At Sundance, the actor and filmmaker’s sophomore effort Rob Peace premiered. Based on a biography by Jeff Hobbs, the tragic drama stars Jay Will in the title role alongside Ejiofor as his father, Mary J. Blige, Camila Cabello, and Michael Kelly.

Various reviews are quite solid while some negative write-ups have emerged as well. The current result is a 75% RT rating (under Wind‘s 86%). Some reaction indicates this is a crowdpleaser and that could help with eventual awards prospects. However, the likelihood is that voters won’t give Peace a chance unless a distributor works serious magic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Trolls Band Together

Trolls Band Together from DreamWorks is the third animated feature in the musical franchise out November 17th with Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, and many others on crooning duty.

Thus far the critical response is below its two predecessors. 2016’s Trolls sat at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes while 2020 follow-up Trolls World Tour was a hair under at 71%. At press time, Band Together has managed just 56% on the meter.

The two earlier Trolls entries failed to nab Animated Feature nods at the Oscars and this won’t either. In fact, I’d say it’s easily behind three other sequels in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem, and Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget.

Seven years ago, this series earned its only Academy mention for Timberlake’s smash hit “Can’t Stop the Feeling” (it lost to “City of Stars” from La La Land). This second sequel does boast an NSYNC reunion after two decades with the track “Better Place”. Yet it is not dominating the charts like band member JT’s aforementioned ditty managed. Like World Tour, Band doesn’t seem primed for an encore come awards time. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Trolls Band Together Box Office Prediction

The computer animated creatures that first hit the screen seven years ago are back again in Trolls Band Together on November 17th. The DreamWorks musical comedy comes from Walt Dohrn, who co-directed the 2016 original and solely helmed the 2020 sequel. Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Icona Pop, Anderson Paak, Ron Funches, Kenan Thompson, and Kunal Nayyar reprise their vocal roles. They are joined by Eric André, Kid Cudi, Daveed Diggs, Camila Cabello, Amy Schumer, and RuPaul.

Featuring tracks from Kendrick and Cabello and the first NSYNC track in over two decades, Together hopes to bring in a large crowd. The first Trolls opened to a better than expected $46 million with an eventual $153 million domestic haul. Yet any clues for sequel demand were made complicated by follow-up Trolls World Tour. It went the VOD route due to coming out in April 2020 as movie theaters were shuttered by the COVID pandemic. There are estimates that it took in around $150 million in rentals.

Where does that leave our third song and dance fest? I certainly think this won’t match the mid 40s debut from 2016. This seems likely to start slower though it could have a healthy hold in its second frame over the long Thanksgiving weekend.

I’ll say mid to high 20s to possibly low 30s is where this Band begins as it hopes for pleasing encores over the holidays.

Trolls Band Together opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million

For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:

For my Thanksgiving prediction, click here:

For my Next Goal Wins prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Cinderella

Critics don’t seem overly charmed with the latest version of Cinderella, which hits Amazon Prime this weekend after slipping out of a theatrical release. The musical rom com casts singer Camila Cabello in the title role with a supporting cast including Idina Menzel, Minnie Driver, Billy Porter, and Pierce Brosnan. Kay Cannon writes and directs.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 45%. However, the would-be princess’s new iteration could at least make a case for some awards chatter. That would be in the category of Costume Design (where critical reaction doesn’t mean a whole lot). The better reviewed Disney live-action retelling from 2015 scored a nod there. However, I would say it’s chances are fairly slim. Cruella already has a reserved spot in all likelihood. And then there’s hopefuls such as The French Dispatch, House of Gucci, West Side Story, Dune, and The Last Duel (to name a handful).

Cinderella‘s shots don’t quite end there. Cabello recently debuted an original song “Million to One” for the soundtrack (which mostly consists of contemporary covers of tracks such as Janet Jackson’s “Rhythm Nation” and Queen’s “Somebody to Love”). This is another race where the level of forthcoming competition could determine its viability.

Bottom line: Cinderella could find its way into two categories, but I wouldn’t bet on it. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…