Tag: Bros

2022 Oscar Predictions: July 4th Edition

It’s been a week and a half since I updated my estimates in the current eight Oscar races that I’m prognosticating. As July dawns, not much has changed. It’s still the same 10 Best Pic nominees though the ranking numbers have ebbed and flowed a bit.

The only actual shift is in Supporting Actress where I’m putting Zoe Kazan (She Said) back in over Audra McDonald (Rustin).

However, if you look below the predicted five in the acting derbies, you’ll see some names for the first time. They include Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Jennifer Lawrence (Red, White and Water), and Dolly De Leon and Woody Harrelson (both for Triangle of Sadness).

You can read all the movement below!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 5) (E)

6. Bardo (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Son (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Empire of Light (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

11. She Said (PR: 11) (E)

12. White Noise (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Tar (PR: 17) (+3)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 16) (+1)

16. Broker (PR: 14) (-2)

17. Elvis (PR: 18) (+1)

18. Next Goal Wins (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Amsterdam (PR: 15) (-5)

21. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 22) (+1)

22. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 23) (+1)

23. Decision to Leave (PR: 19) (-4)

24. Till (PR: 24) (E)

25. The Killer (PR: 25) (E)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (E)

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 9) (+1)

9. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Todd Field, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)

14. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

Maria Schrader, She Said 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 7) (E)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (E)

13. Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)

15. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White, and Water (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling

Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run 

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (E)

4. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 8) (E)

9. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 14) (E)

15. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 6) (E)

7. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 10) (E)

11. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Margot Robbie, Amsterdam 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (E)

4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 4) (E)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 8) (E)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 10) (E)

11. Colin Farrell, Thirteen Lives (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

14. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Don Cheadle, White Noise

Tom Hanks, Elvis 

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Babylon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 4) (E)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Bardo (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rustin (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Broker (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)

11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)

12. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Bros (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Don’t Worry Darling

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Whale (PR: 4) (E)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 7) (E)

8. Thirteen Lives (PR: 14) (+6)

9. Till (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 10) (E)

11. The Good Nurse (PR: 12) (+1)

12. The Killer (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Bones and All (PR: 9) (-4)

14. The Pale Blue Eye (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Avatar: The Way of Water

2022 Oscar Predictions: June 23rd Edition

My final Oscar predictions for the month of June comes with some news out today that Yorgos Lanthimos’s Poor Things is likely delayed until 2023. While I didn’t have it being nominated in any of the major races, it was listed in other possibilities in Picture, Director, Actress (Emma Stone), Supporting Actor (for Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo), and Adapted Screenplay.

As for other shifts, I’m putting Empire of Light back in the 10 BP nominees and that’s to the detriment of She Said. In Supporting Actress, I’m dropping Zoe Kazan in She Said from the high five in favor of Rustin‘s Audra McDonald.

I’ll additionally note that Top Gun: Maverick continues to rise as it flies to the #12 slot. Its continued box office domination increases the chances for BP inclusion. Time will tell if it breaks the top 10 or eventually falls out of favor. However, I have no doubt now that Paramount will mount a robust campaign considering its phenomenon status.

In Best Actor, the #1 position is back to Hugh Jackman (The Son) over Brendan Fraser in The Whale. Speaking of the former pic, I’ve moved Laura Dern’s work to supporting instead of lead.

You can peruse all the movement below!

Best Picture 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)

6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)

8. Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+3)

9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. She Said (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 18) (+6)

13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Broker (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (-1)

16. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Tar (PR: 19) (+2)

18. Elvis (PR: 20) (+2)

19. Decision to Leave (PR: 16) (-3)

20. Next Goal Wins (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 22) (+1)

22. Triangle of Sadness (PR: Not Ranked)

23. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Till (PR: 25) (+1)

25. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things

Armageddon Time

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)

5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 6) (E)

7. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hirokazu Kore-ada, Broker (PR: 10) (E)

11. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (+3)

12. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (PR: 12) (E)

13. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Todd Field, Tar (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things 

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: 11) (E)

12. Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: 14) (E)

15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Emma Stone, Poor Things 

Laura Dern, The Son (moved to Supporting Actress)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities: 

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 6) (E)

7. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Song Kang-ho, Broker (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 1) (E)

2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (E)

3. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 3) (E)

4. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Actress)

7. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 9) (-1)

11. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Sadie Sink, The Whale (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nina Hoss, Tar (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time 

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Glynn Turman, Rustin (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Colin Firth, Empire of Light (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Fabelmans (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Russell Crowe, The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: Not Ranked)

13. John David Washington, Amsterdam (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Don Cheadle, White Noise (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Tom Hanks, Elvis (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)

5. Triangle of Sadness (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Bardo (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rustin (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Broker (PR: 5) (-3)

9. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Adapted)

10. Tar (PR: 10) (E)

11. Amsterdam (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Decision to Leave (PR: 8) (-4)

13. Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Bros (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Aftersun

Armageddon Time

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story 

Nope 

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Son (PR: 2) (E)

3. Women Talking (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Whale (PR: 3) (-1)

5. White Noise (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. She Said (PR: 6) (E)

7. Next Goal Wins (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Till (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Bones & All (PR: 12) (+3)

10. The Greatest Beer Run Ever (PR: 15) (+5)

11. The Killer (PR: Not Ranked)

12. The Good Nurse (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 13) (E)

14. Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Poor Things 

The Banshees of Inisherin (moved to Original Screenplay)