Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million
Osgood Perkins releases his third horror title in under two years when Keeper arrives in theaters November 14th. The two-hander stars Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland. It was shot with a Canadian crew while the filmmaker’s predecessor The Monkey was held up during the 2023 SAG/WGA strike.
In July of 2024, Longlegs from Perkins was an unexpected hit with a $22 million debut and $74 million overall domestic haul. The aforementioned Monkey followed earlier this year in February with $14 million at the outset and $39 million total. Expectations are considerably lower for Keeper with the caveat that this genre can always overperform. With that said, horror fans have plenty to see in 2025 and I’ll project mid single digits for this (similar to what Bring Her Back did early in the summer).
Ballerina, a spinoff of the John Wick franchise, hopes to step into the #1 spot this weekend and Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The Phoenician Scheme expands nationwide. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Ana de Armas headlines Ballerina (full title: From the World of John Wick: Ballerina) with series regulars appearing including Keanu Reeves. While I don’t have this approaching the heights of the previous two Wick installments, my mid 30s projection should be enough to top the charts.
As for Phoenician, it had an impressive per screen average in six venues this past frame. My high single digits estimate as it increases to around 1500 locations should mean fourth or fifth place with it performing in line with Anderson predecessor Asteroid City.
Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the 1-2 finishers for the past two weekends, should each drop a spot with percentage dips in the mid 40s. I expect Karate Kid: Legends to experience a heftier decline in the mid to high 50s during its sophomore outing.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. Ballerina
Predicted Gross: $36.8 million
2. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $31.9 million
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $15 million
4. The Phoenician Scheme
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)
Disney’s Lilo & Stitch continued to reign supreme with $61.8 million, a bit under my $66.4 million call. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature has collected $278 million in its ten days of release.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was runner-up with $27.2 million, on target with my $28.7 million forecast. Ethan Hunt’s final adventure stands at $122 million after two weeks in play.
Karate Kid: Legends debuted in third with $20.3 million which puts it in line with my $21.3 million prediction. The legacy sequel with Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan premiered on the lower end of its anticipated range.
Final Destination Bloodlines was fourth with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8 million projection for a three-week tally of $111 million.
Finally, acclaimed A24 horror flick Bring Her Back brought in a so-so $7 million for fifth, not matching my $8.5 million call.
The supernatural horror pic Bring Her Back is out this weekend with critics praising the Philippou brothers’ follow-up to 2023’s Talk to Me. Billy Barratt, Sora Wong, and Sally Hawkins star. Distributed by A24 stateside, early box office numbers are so-so but it has a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for the genre), 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 75 Metacritic.
This is ground covered before on the blog, but it is a high bar for Academy voters to take notice of movies with horror elements. Recent examples include Get Out and The Substance. They each nabbed BP mentions with nods for their leading performers. While Hawkins in particular is being lauded for her work, I don’t envision Back getting into the mix during awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.
Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.
I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.
Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million
3. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
4. Bring Her Back
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.
While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.
Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.
Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.
Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.
The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.
Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.
Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.
Australian twins Danny and Michael Philippou follow up their acclaimed 2023 horror pic Talk to Me with another via Bring Her Back on May 30th. Sally Hawkins and Billy Barratt headline the A24 property marking the brothers’ second directorial feature.
Talk to Me exceeded expectations two summers ago with a debut north of $10 million and $48 million overall domestic haul (it made nearly $100 million worldwide). Critical reaction for Back is sturdy with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic.
I don’t envision this exceeding what Talk managed though it should open in the same range.
Bring Her Back opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
For my Karate Kid: Legends prediction, click here:
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