77th Directors Guild of America Awards Reaction

As far as precursors go, it’s been a brutal weekend thus far for The Brutalist. At the Critics Choice Awards, the film’s sole victory was Adrien Brody in Actor. It lost the big race to Anora and, even more shockingly, Jon M. Chu took Director for Wicked over Brady Corbet.

At tonight’s Directors Guild of America Awards ceremony, this was the opportunity for Corbet to get back on track for what most prognosticators (including this one) figured would be a sweep over the season. The DGA’s main prize has matched Best Director at the Oscars 21 out of 24 times in the 21st century.

So what happened? Well, Anora went and altered Corbet’s narrative. Sean Baker is the winner and it makes what was considered a safe Oscar race to predict a tough one.

I correctly called the other two competitions as RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) took the First-Time Feature prize while Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev are your Documentary filmmaking recipients for Porcelain War.

My PGA reaction will be rolling in soon, but the DGA made an unpredictable season even more so.

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.

Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora

Documentaries

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)

There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters

FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)

All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

I’ll have recap up (along with PGA) this weekend!

Oscar Predictions: Porcelain War

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev’s documentary Porcelain War focuses on three artists turned Ukrainian soldiers following the Russian invasion. After its debut at Sundance, it proceeded to win the Grand Jury prize for its genre at the Utah festival.

War looks to follow 20 Days in Mariupol (also covering the war) in generating awards attention. With an 89% RT rating, it might need a shrewd distributor to mount an effective campaign. Considering the subject matter, it stands a solid shot at breaking through with voters a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…