Rule Breakers is the latest inspirational drama from Angel Studios which casts Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a teacher guiding Afghan women. Bill Guttentag directs with Ali Fazal, Fahim Fazli, and Nikohl Boosheri among the costars.
Shot for a reported $8 million, Rule hopes to break into the consciousness of the faith-based audience that its studio caters to. That probably means an opening weekend in the lower to mid single digits. Angel’s last three efforts were Bonhoeffer (which started with $5.5 million), Homestead ($6 million), and Brave the Dark with just $2.3 million.
I think this should go higher than Dark while not reaching the debuts of the other two.
Rule Breakers opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to lap all competitors this weekend as the critically hailed horror pic Companion also opens. Detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be found here:
A spinoff of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, I have Dog performing right in range with its predecessor in the mid 20s. That should easily give it top dog status.
As for Companion, I’m thinking it’ll be runner-up. This latest scary movie starring Sophie Thatcher may perform similarly in the low double digits like her previous genre title Heretic did last November.
Flight Risk landed in 1st place this past frame in line with my expectations (more on that below). With a troubling C Cinemascore grade and poor reviews, I have it plummeting over 50% in its sophomore outing. That could mean a fall from 1st to 5th with holdovers Mufasa: The Lion King and One of Them Days having significantly smaller declines.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $25.4 million
2. Companion
Predicted Gross: $10.6 million
3. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6 million
5. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (January 24-26)
Mel Gibson’s action thriller Flight Risk with a balding Mark Wahlberg led all pics with $11.5 million, in line with my $11.3 million call. It’s a fairly ho-hum start during these January doldrums and, as mentioned, I look for it to lose altitude quickly.
Mufasa: The Lion King was second with $8.5 million, on target with my $8.7 million prediction. The Disney property bumped its tally to $220 million after six weeks.
One of Them Days with Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of complimentary buzz to a 32% dip in weekend #2. It took in $8 million to rise above my $6.8 million projection. The ten-day take is $25 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $5.3 million (I said $5.1 million) for a six-week showing of $225 million.
While I correctly called the 1-4 order, I whiffed on the rest of my top 6. Moana 2 was fifth with $4.1 million for $449 million after nine weeks.
Steven Soderbergh’s experimental haunted house tale Presence debuted in sixth with $3.3 million. I did not do a predictions post for it. Profitability should happen given its reported $2 million price tag.
Wolf Man flamed out in its second weekend in seventh with a 70% drop and $3.2 million. I was more generous at $4.6 million and it has grossed a mere $17 million.
Finally, Brave the Dark, the latest drama from Angel Studios, was 12th with a lowly $2.8 million. Once again, I was kinder with a $5.1 million estimate.
Mark Wahlberg looks to guide Flight Risk to #1 this weekend and Angel Studios premieres their latest drama Brave the Dark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The doldrums of January should continue at multiplexes with Flight Risk seeking action fans to get onboard. Directed by his Daddy’s Home 2 and Father Stu costar Mel Gibson, I have Wahlberg’s latest in the low double digits. That should be enough for the top spot.
After returning to first place by a nose, Mufasa: The Lion King should slip to second with One of Them Days in third after a better than anticipated runner-up showing (more on that below).
The fourth slot could be close between Brave the Dark and Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 6th frame. Wolf Man had a disappointing rollout and could ease to sixth with a decline in the mid 50s or so.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 6:
1. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Brave the Dark
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (January 17-19)
In the weakest MLK weekend in nearly a quarter century, Mufasa: The Lion King managed to climb back into the winners circle with $12 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s ahead of my $9.5 million call and it gives the Disney property $206 million after five weeks.
Buddy comedy One of Them Days starring Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of solid reviews to second place and $11.8 million, easily overshadowing my $7.8 million projection. This is the first 2025 title to exceed expectations.
The same cannot be said for Wolf Man. Blumhouse’s horror reboot received plenty of subpar critical notices and audiences turned away. While I had it pegged for 1st at $16.6 million, it was third with only $10.8 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $8.6 million compared to my $6.6 million estimate for a five-week total of $216 million.
Last weekend’s champ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera fell to fifth with $6.5 million. The 56% drop was steeper than I figured as I had it at $8.2 million. The ten-day take is $26 million.
Brave the Dark marks the latest effort from Angel Studios. They hit it big in 2023 with Sound of Freedom and have delivered midsize performers in recent months with Bonhoeffer and Homestead. This 1980s set drama comes from director Damian Harris. He’s the eldest son of legendary actor Richard Harris and (fun fact!) helmed the 1991 Goldie Hawn thriller Deceived and 1995 Ellen Barkin/Laurence Fishburne noir flick Bad Company.
This is a family affair with brothers Jared and Jamie Harris in the cast alongside Nicholas Hamilton. Dark actually first saw light in the fall of 2023 at some film festivals before Angel nabbed distribution rights. The aforementioned Bonhoeffer earned $5.5 million for its start in November while Homestead took in $6 million. That makes mid single digits the safest bet.
Brave the Dark opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
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