Hindi language action pic Animal is unleashed in nearly 900 North American venues on December 1st. It will vie for second highest debuting newcomer of the weekend (behind Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé). From director Sandeep Reddy Vanga, the epic length (201 minutes) experience stars Ranbir Kapoor, Amil Kapoor, Bobby Deol, Rashmika Mandanna, and Tripti Dimri.
As mentioned, the battle for the runner-up early December premiere could be a tight one between Godzilla Minus One, Silent Night, The Shift, and this. I have all four falling between $5-8 million.
This one could over perform, but comps are key. 2022’s Brahmastra – Part One: Shiva (another long Hindi language adventure) made $4.5 million out of the gate on slightly less screens. This September’s Jawan took in just over $6 million. Both were roughly a half hour shorter than Animal. I’m thinking a performance more like Shiva is the likely result.
Animal opening weekend prediction: $4 million
For my Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé, click here:
**Blogger’s Update (09/14): Two changes to discuss as I’ve revised my See How They Run estimate down from $4.8M to $3.2M and my Pearl estimate up from $2.4M to $3.4M. That changes the dynamic of the top five from what I discussed below.
The Viola Davis led historical action epic The Woman King, Saoirse Ronan and Sam Rockwell in the comedic murder mystery See How They Run, and Ti West’s horror prequel Pearl are the new offerings coming our way this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The Woman King should have no trouble debuting in first place as it’s the only pic that should top double digits. Reviews are solid and this could manage a gross close to $20 million, but I’m hedging and projecting a low teens start.
I’m not anticipating much of the other newcomers. Run has been flying under the radar. Assuming Barbarian has a typically hefty horror sophomore dip (more on its opening below), the crime caper should still manage a second place showing thought it could be awfully close.
As for Pearl, its predecessor X made $4.3 million in its March premiere. I’m thinking the prequel won’t match that. However, even if it snatches $2-3 million, that should be enough to make top five.
Here’s how I see this rather ho-hum mid-September frame playing out:
1. The Woman King
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
2. Barbarian
Predicted Gross: $5 million
3. Pearl
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
4. See How They Run
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $2.3 million
Box Office Results (September 9-11)
Critics enjoyed Barbarian more than audiences though the scary movie landed on the higher end of its range. It opened in first with $10.5 million and that’s ahead of my $7.1 million prediction. The C+ Cinemascore grade doesn’t approach that 92% RT score. Note that its opening weekend matches it reported budget. This’ll be a profitable little venture for 20th Century Studios.
The Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva had a second place opening with $4.5 million, managing to top my $3.2 million estimate. I would expect the debut to be front loaded and for it to drop out of the top five this weekend.
Bullet Train was third with $3.3 million (I said $3.4 million) as it inches closer to nine figures with $92 million.
Top Gun: Maverick (after rising back to first place over Labor Day) was fourth with $3.1 million, under my $4.2 million take. The gargantuan gross is $705 million.
The Invitation rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. With $2.6 million, it’s up to $18 million after three weeks.
DC League of Super-Pets was sixth with $2.6 million (I went with $3 million) to bring its tally to $85 million.
Despite some encouraging early word-of-mouth, horror flick Barbarian could be fairly quiet out of the gate as the only wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:
My estimate easily puts it in the top spot, but that’s cold comfort considering I’m projecting a second weekend in a row with no title topping $10 million.
On the more limited front is the Indian adventure Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva. I didn’t do an individual post for it, but the reported 750 venues should limit its potential. With a caveat that this may over perform, I’ll say it manages a fourth place start (though it could just as easily be 2nd or 3rd).
Holdovers Top Gun: Maverick, Bullet Train, and DC League of Super-Pets should fill out the remainder of the high five. Here’s how I see it:
1. Barbarian
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
3. Bullet Train
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
4. Brahmastra: Part One – Shiva
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
5. DC League of Super-Pets
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (September 2-5)
On its 102nd day of release, Top Gun: Maverick returned to the top spot over a desolate Labor Day weekend with $7.9 million (surpassing my $6.2 million prediction). Tom Cruise’s sequel surpassed Black Panther to become the 5th largest domestic grosser of all time. The total is $701 million. Fifth place is likely where it will stay as #4 is Avatar ($760 million) and it’s got a re-release coming in two weeks before the December sequel.
Bullet Train was second with $7.5 million, ahead of my $6 million projection as it has pulled in $88 million over five weeks. Now might be a good time to mention that National Cinema Day, which priced films for $3 at major chains, probably helped push the numbers up a bit over the holiday.
DC League of Super-Pets was third with $6.7 million (I underplayed it at $4.3 million). The National Cinema Day bump got it to $82 million.
Spider-Man: No Way Home – The More Fun Stuff Edition added 11 minutes of extra footage and $6.5 million to its considerable coffers. That’s in range with my $7 million guesstimate. Spidey has swung $811 million in the bank.
The Invitation rounded out the top five at $6.1 million (besting my $4.6 million take) for a two-week total of $15 million.
Beast was sixth with $5 million compared to my call of $4.1 million for $26 million overall.
Minions: The Rise of Gru was seventh with $4.5 million and I did not project it. The franchise blockbuster sits at $360 million.
The Jaws re-release was 8th with $3.3 million, on target with my prediction of $3.1 million.
Finally, the Regina Hall/Sterling K. Brown satire Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul. found no love with $1.7 million for 14th place. I said $2.4 million.
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