Just one week ago, I wrote a blog post detailing the Oscar prospects for David O. Russell’s latest Joy, which comes out on Christmas. Seven days ago, I believed its prospects for a nomination in Best Picture were still fairly decent. Some of this was due to Mr. Russell’s track record over the decade. His last three pictures – The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle – all were nominated, as was Russell. Those three movies represent an astounding 11 acting nominations with three wins. And the advance word of mouth on Joy was cautiously optimistic enough that I still felt it stood a good shot at Academy attention.
What a difference a week makes. The official embargo on Joy reviews was lifted this morning and a clearer picture has emerged. Bottom line: Joy will not be nominated for Best Picture. David O. Russell will not be nominated for Director. None of the supporting players that includes Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Edgar Ramirez, Virginia Madsen, Diane Ladd, and Isabella Rossellini will hear their names called. Reviews have been extremely mixed. While some critics have heaped praised, other prominent reviewers have called it his worst movie. While the number is bound to fluctuate, it currently stands at just 53% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Fighter? 90%. Silver Linings Playbook? 92%. American Hustle? 93%. You get the idea.
The only bright spot is that Jennifer Lawrence’s inclusion in Best Actress still appears be solid. Writers have singled out her work and the superstar looks to land her third recognition in a row for a Russell directed effort.
The Joy bubble bursting will surely give rise to another film that many prognosticators had under their bubbles for Picture predictions, including my own. This could represent good news for pictures ranging from Mad Max: Fury Road to Creed to Son of Saul to Anomalisa to The Big Short.
One thing is nearly certain: Russell’s joyful Oscar streak looks to be finished.
When it comes to Oscar nominations over the first half of this decade, no director matches the incredible track record of David O. Russell. Let’s do some math, shall we? His last three pictures – 2010’s The Fighter, 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook, 2013’s American Hustle – have scored a combined 25 Academy Award nods. All three were nominated for Best Picture. Russell was in the Directing race for each film. The trio of pics nabbed a total of 11 acting nominations resulting in three victories: Christian Bale (Supporting Actor for The Fighter), Melissa Leo (Supporting Actress for The Fighter), and Jennifer Lawrence (Actress for Silver Linings Playbook).
Therefore, it’s obvious that December’s Joy has been high on the list for potential Oscar attention. Over the weekend, it screened for critics and journalists for the first time. While reviews are officially embargoed until mid December, the word is that Russell likely has his fourth contender in a row. Early buzz makes one thing clear: Lawrence is in line to receive her fourth nomination as the title character in Best Actress. At this point, it’d be a shock if she’s not included. This would mark her third recognition in a row from the Academy working with Russell (winning for Playbook, nominated for Hustle). As for other acting races, it’s murkier. Bradley Cooper would also be going for his third nomination in a row with Russell, but his part is said to be small and he probably won’t be included. Robert De Niro, on the other hand, has potential with his supporting turn. His last nomination was in the same category for Playbook. Diane Ladd is rumored to be the Supporting Actress most in contention over costars Virginia Madsen and Isabella Rossellini.
It would also seem that Joy remains a strong contender for Best Picture recognition and that could extend to Russell’s fourth time in the Director category. As stated, Russell’s films have been an Oscar juggernaut and it’s unlikely to let up here (especially with J Law). A caveat: some of the initial reaction for this isn’t quite as over the moon as the director’s last efforts, so I would write Joy‘s Best Picture nomination and Russell’s down in pencil, not pen until officials reviews are released. Feel free to use a Bic with Lawrence.
We have arrived at my third round of Oscar predictions for the month of November. Some has changed, some has stayed the same. We’ll go through each of the six major categories one by one…
Let’s go!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is the one category where I’ve made no changes, though any of the others listed as possibilities could find their way in. Most have Jane Fonda in the mix already, but I’m not quite there yet.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS in SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Joan Allen, Room
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
Jane Fonda, Youth
Diane Ladd, Joy
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Isabella Rossellini, Joy
Julie Walters, Brooklyn
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
And here we have the most changes of any category! Coming out of nowhere last week was Sylvester Stallone’s acclaimed performance in Creed and as of now, here appears to be a strong contender for a nod and maybe even the win. I’m also including Mark Ruffalo and re-including Idris Elba. Falling out are Benicio del Toro, Robert De Niro, and Tom Hardy, though they all remain possibles. This category has a whole lot of potential nominees, but only five slots available.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for SUPPORTING ACTOR
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Other Possibilities:
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
Harrison Ford, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Jason Mitchell, Straight Outta Compton
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Jacob Tremblay, Room
BEST ACTRESS
Four slots seem to be rather safe and have been for awhile: Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, and Saoirse Ronan. The fifth slot could legitimately be any of the others listed, but for now I’ve removed Carey Mulligan and replaced her with Blythe Danner.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, Sicario
Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
BEST ACTOR
Only one change here as I currently feel the massive box office success of The Martian will get Matt Damon in. That takes Michael Caine out. Watch out for Will Smith, though, even though I don’t yet have him in the final cut.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for ACTOR
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Michael Caine, Youth
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Will Smith, Concussion
BEST DIRECTOR
Two changes here as I believe Danny Boyle may miss out and George Miller won’t be the wild card pick I predicted in October. This puts David O. Russell and Ridley Scott in.
TODD’S PREDICTIONS for DIRECTOR
Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
David O. Russell, Joy
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Other Possibilities:
Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
Ryan Coogler, Creed
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
Todd Haynes, Carol
Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
BEST PICTURE
I am still predicting nine nominees out of the possible five-ten and I’ve made two changes. I’m putting Carol back in the mix and The Martian in for the first time. That leaves out Bridge of Spies and The Danish Girl, though both remain major contenders. It’s worth noting that Steve Jobs, due to its disastrous box office performance, is not even close to a shoo in and it could fall off.
TODD’s PREDICTIONS for PICTURE
Brooklyn
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Joy
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Steve Jobs
Other Possibilities:
Beasts of No Nation
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Creed
The Danish Girl
Inside Out
In the Heart of the Sea
Mad Max: Fury Road
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Comption
And that does it for my November Oscar predictions, folks! I’ll have the December predictions up shortly before Christmas…
After his Oscar nominated smash hit American Sniper early this year, Bradley Cooper may experience his second box office disappointment with Burnt, out next weekend. The comedic drama features Cooper as a formerly drug addicted chef trying to rebuild his life. Costars include Sienna Miller, Uma Thurman, Daniel Bruhl, Alicia Vikander and Emma Thompson.
Reviews have not been strong as Burnt currently sits at just 31% on Rotten Tomatoes. It appears to be following a similar path to this summer’s Aloha with Cooper, which debuted to only $9.6 million. I wouldn’t be surprised if this suffers a similarly unimpressive fate and fails to reach double digits out of the gate.
Burnt opening weekend prediction: $8.9 million
For my Our Brand Is Crisis prediction, click here:
We’ve arrived at my second round of Oscar predictions in the category of Best Actor and like Best Actress yesterday, there’s only been one change since my initial predictions in early September.
It’s Don Cheadle’s work in Miles Ahead that has been omitted and this is for two reasons: it got mixed reviews on the film fest circuit and it’s likely been pushed back to 2016. Taking his place: Johnny Depp’s work as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, which has earned the star some of the best reviews of his career.
The remaining four: Michael Caine in Youth, Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant, Michael Fassbender as Steve Jobs, and last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl.
I believe Caine could be the most vulnerable of the group and there’s a number of actors that could swoop in and replace him. That list now appears to be topped by Will Smith in Concussion or Matt Damon in The Martian, which has skyrocketed to critical acclaim and terrific box office numbers since my first predictions.
As for now, not a lot has changed here but we’ll see if that remains when my third round is released in November.
TODD’S BEST ACTOR PREDICTIONS (OCTOBER EDITION)
Michael Caine, Youth
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Bradley Cooper, Burnt
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
Will Smith, Concussion
Best Director and Best Picture predictions for the second time around will be up on the blog soon!
This evening on the blog, we continue forward with my second round of predictions (October edition) for Oscar nominees in the six major categories. Yesterday it was Supporting Actress and now we’re onto Supporting Actor. Since my initial round of predictions over a month and a half ago, much has changed.
In fact, only two of my predicted five nominees from that original prognostication post made the cut this time around: Tom Hardy in The Revenant and Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies.
Gone are Bradley Cooper in David O. Russell’s Joy and I’ve substituted him for his supporting costar Robert De Niro. It’s worth noting that Russell’s last three films resulted in Supporting nods for Christian Bale in The Fighter (who won), De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Cooper in American Hustle. In other words, Russell’s actors get nominated.
Also out are Harvey Keitel in Youth and Kurt Russell for The Hateful Eight, though both remain possibilities. Word around Hollywood is that Samuel L. Jackson is the standout male performance in Hateful Eight, though it’s unclear at this juncture whether he’ll be campaigned for in lead or supporting.
Joining the fray are Michael Keaton for Spotlight (whose nomination seems the most assured at this juncture) and Benicio del Toro for his acclaimed role in Sicario.
Other possibilities are plentiful, including Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight. If that were to occur and Keaton got recognized as well, it’d be the first time in 24 years that two actors from the same picture were nominated in this category. That was Bugsy when both Harvey Keitel and Ben Kingsley got nods.
This is a very fluid category, as evidenced by the major changes I’ve made since early September and we’ll see if it continues along its unpredictable path when my third round of predictions comes in November.
TODD’S BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTIONS (ROUND TWO)
How about this for a 2015 Best Actor category? You could have Miles Davis, Steve Jobs, Dalton Trumbo, Whitey Bulger, Dan Rather, Hank Williams, Edward Snowden, and Lance Armstrong all competing against one another? Yep, it’s true as this year’s possibilities contain a number of high-profile performers playing real life characters.
Today is part four of my very early Oscar predictions. In 2014, I made my initial round at the same time. For the races of Best Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress, these early 2014 prognostications yielded just two of the eventual five nominees. Yet last year in the Best Actor race, they correctly predicted four of the five eventual nominees and the fifth was mentioned in the other possibilities section.
Back to the real life folks. Of the many I mentioned, I currently only have Don Cheadle’s work as Miles Davis in Miles Ahead and Michael Fassbender’s portrayal of Steve Jobs getting in. Fassbender, it should be noted, also remains a contender for this fall’s Macbeth. Any of the others mentioned could bubble up: Bryan Cranston in Trumbo, Johnny Depp as Whitey Bulger in Black Mass, Robert Redford as Dan Rather in Truth, Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams in I Saw the Light, Ben Foster as Lance Armstrong in The Program, and Joseph Gordon-Levitt as Snowden. Like Fassbender, Gordon-Levitt could be a contender for Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, too.
Last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne has a showy role in the period piece transgender drama The Danish Girl and he could easily see a second nod in as many years. Beloved veteran thespian Michael Caine has received raves for Youth. And Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s yet to win, is sure to receive attention for December’s The Revenant.
As festivals begin to roll on and some of these aforementioned films will be reviewed, the picture should continue to become clearer. As for now:
TODD’S EARLY PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTOR
Michael Caine, Youth
Don Cheadle, Miles Ahead
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Other Possibilities:
Bradley Cooper, Burnt
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Michael Fassbender, Macbeth
Colin Firth, Genius
Ben Foster, The Program
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Snowden
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Tom Hardy, Legend
Tom Hiddleston, I Saw the Light
Brad Pitt, By the Sea
Robert Redford, Truth
Best Director will be up tomorrow with Best Picture on Saturday! Stay tuned…
If you missed my previous posts covering Actress and the Supporting races, click here:
Continuing on with part two of my impossibly early Oscar predictions for 2015, we move to Best Supporting Actor. As I mentioned in the previous Supporting Actress piece, the predictions that I did at this time of the year in 2014 yielded two out of the five eventual nominees. Same goes for Supporting Actor last year, though it’s worth noting that last year in early September – I mentioned all five eventual nominees in the predicted or other possibilities category.
Unlike Supporting Actress, where Rooney Mara seems to be a shoo in for a nod in Carol, there are no obvious nominees in this category as of yet. One thing seems very possible – Quentin Tarantino has a knack for getting his supporting players attention and that may bode well for either Kurt Russell or Samuel L. Jackson. Right now, I’ll give Russell the edge.
David O. Russell is also known for his performers receiving Academy love and his December release Joy could mean nods for either Bradley Cooper or Robert De Niro. We’ll go with Mr. Cooper at press time.
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant could garner plenty of attention and Tom Hardy could benefit from it in this category. It doesn’t hurt that he’s had a terrific year coming off the acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road.
The Cannes Film Festival brought forth raves for the indie drama Youth and Harvey Keitel’s work in it while this fall’s Steven Spielberg drama Bridge of Spies seems to have a major supporting role for character actor Mark Rylance.
Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs may mean nods for either Jeff Daniels or Seth Rogen. The Brian Wilson biopic Love and Mercy has both John Cusack and Paul Dano (depending on who the studio puts in which category). The Catholic Church sex scandal drama Spotlight has Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo. Past winner Benicio del Toro is said to be a standout in this September’s Sicario. And on and on.
In other words, lots of possibilities here and we shall see how it shakes out. For now:
TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Joy
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Harvey Keitel, Youth
Kurt Russell, The Hateful Eight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Other Possibilities:
Steve Carell, Freeheld
John Cusack, Love and Mercy
Jeff Daniels, Steve Jobs
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Benicio del Toro, Sicario
Robert De Niro, Joy
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Jude Law, Genius
Ewan McGregor, Miles Ahead
Seth Rogen, Steve Jobs
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Billy Bob Thornton, Our Brand is Crisis
And that’ll do it for now! Best Actress coming up tomorrow…
You can peruse my Supporting Actress early picks here:
Cameron Crowe’s Aloha further marks a trip down mediocrity lane for a filmmaker that has graced us with Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. For me, his last worthy effort was 2001’s Vanilla Sky, which occasionally lacked focus but its merits outweighed its demerits. The same cannot be said for everything in Crowe’s oeuvre that’s followed – Elizabethtown, We Bought a Zoo and now this. Aloha is a strange mix of romance, comedy, drama, Hawaiian mysticism and corporate and military industrialism that never feels cohesive. The various aspects of the screenplay never quite gel. The casting decisions, packed with top notch talent, are a mixed bag. There are moments that remind us of Crowe’s greatness, but not many.
Bradley Cooper stars as Brian, a defense contractor who travels to Hawaii to assist a billionaire business mogul (a subdued Bill Murray) on a shady deal. Emma Stone is Allison Ng, the Air Force pilot whose task it is to assist him and, of course, fall for him. Rachel McAdams is Brian’s “one that got away”, an old flame now married to John Krasinki’s strong and very silent service officer. We jump back and forth wondering which woman Brian will try to end up with. Crowe’s screenplay keeps us busy with not only the romance angle but our central character’s occupational hazards with Murray and Alec Baldwin and Danny McBride’s military personnel roles. There’s a lot of plot happening here coupled with many stories of Hawaiin lore. Simply put, it never really comes together in satisfactory fashion.
I appreciated Krasinski’s work and his non talking nature allows for some humorous moments. Yet there isn’t a performance here for any of the famous faces matching their best work. It’s when Crowe allows his performers to be quiet for a moment that shine, like Murray and Stone dancing to Hall and Oates in a nicely constructed sequence. As good as Stone can be and usually is, she’s miscast here and her part is not written well (her explained Chinese and Hawaiian heritage feels a bit stretched).
We get the family drama involved with Brian and the McAdams clan that we see from a mile away mixed with his involvement with Ng and then back to Murray’s increasingly nefarious corporate magnet. It switches so much that it never allows us to care much about any of it. Cameron Crowe’s lesser work still provides glimpses of his unique voice in cinema. Over the last decade, those moments are becoming more and more sparse and there’s not enough gorgeous scenery of our 49th state to make up for it.
In a career spanning over a quarter century, Cameron Crowe has given us critical darlings like Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. Yet it’s been some disappointments in recent years from the director including Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Where will this Friday’s Aloha place?
That remains to be seen. With less than a week before its premiere, I’m a little surprised no reviews have yet to surface and it does create a bit of skepticism. The romantic comedy/drama will attempt to bring in a female audience and the all star cast won’t hurt. Bradley Cooper is hot off the biggest grosser of 2014, American Sniper. Emma Stone is fresh off Oscar attention for Birdman. And the supporting players consist of Rachel McAdams, Bill Murray, Alec Baldwin, John Krasinski and Danny McBride.
Aloha is a somewhat odd release for late May as it would appear to be more suited for a fall release. Still, the cast alone should get it close to $20 million for a decent debut.
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