Oscar Predictions: Elio

Elio attempts to become the 20th Pixar offering to nab a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Academy Awards. Out this Friday, the sci-fi adventure is co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, and Adrian Molina. The voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.

Reviews are generally of the thumbs up variety, but not as laudatory as some other titles from Disney’s subsidiary. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 82% with Metacritic at 62. For comparisons sake, Pixar’s Elemental from two years ago was in that range with a 58 on Meta and 73% RT.

That was enough for Elemental to get one of the five Animated Feature slots. It should also be enough for Elio. However, I’m far less confident it will be the 11th winner of the prize. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Elio Box Office Prediction

Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.

Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.

My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.

Elio opening weekend prediction: $24.5 million

For my 28 Years Later prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions: Cha Cha Real Smooth

Cha Cha Real Smooth comes from writer/director Cooper Raiff and its Sundance premiere is garnering solid buzz (86% on Rotten Tomatoes so far). The filmmaker himself stars as a bar mitzvah party starter who befriends a single mom (Dakota Johnson). Leslie Mann and Brad Garrett costar.

Many reviews indicate this could be a breakout crowdpleaser. Whether that word-of-mouth means anything to awards voters is questionable. However it’s worth mentioning that Johnson is receiving some career best talk. Ever since (or in spite of) her breakout role in Fifty Shades of Grey, the actress is slowly becoming a bit of a critical darling. Her recent supporting turn in The Lost Daughter was well received and she’s got another lead part in another fest offering Am I Ok? (which I’ll get to on the blog shortly).

I doubt Cha Cha is the role that nabs Johnson her first Academy mention, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Watch: Gloria Bell

After premiering last autumn at the Toronto Film Festival, Gloria Bell hits theaters in limited fashion on Friday. The film is a remake of Sebastian Lelio’s 2013 Chilean comedic drama that was met with acclaim. Those strong reviews have greeted the American version (100% on Rotten Tomatoes), which again features Lelio behind the camera. It’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to 2017’s A Fantastic Woman, which won the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Feature.

Julianne Moore plays the title role and critics have lavished praise for her work. Costars include John Turturro, Michael Cera, Brad Garrett, Holland Taylor, Sean Astin, Jeanne Tripplehorn, and Rita Wilson.

A24 acquired Gloria after its screening up north. Even with the March release, it’s likely that the studio will make a significant push for Moore to receive her sixth Oscar nod. Her fifth nomination was the lucky one in 2014 when took the statue in Best Actress for Still Alice. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the sole focus is on Moore being recognized, similar to Glenn Close in 2018 for The Wife.

Bottom line: it’s early, but Moore could be in the mix yet again. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Christopher Robin Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (08/02/18): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate down a tad from $34 million to $29.6 million

Disney’s Christopher Robin hopes to make a pot of money when it’s released next weekend. The mix of live-action and CG brings back Winnie the Pooh, Tigger, Eeyore, Piglet, and other notable creatures that originated from the 1926 novel. Ewan McGregor plays an adult Christopher with Hayley Atwell as his wife. Jim Cummings, Brad Garrett, Toby Jones, Nick Mohammed, Peter Capaldi, and Sophie Okonedo provide voiceover work. Marc Forster directs. I’m guessing this is more in tone with his 2003 pic Finding Neverland and not Quantum of Solace and World War Z.

This is not to be confused with last year’s Goodbye Christopher Robin with Domhnall Gleeson and Margot Robbie. That biopic about Pooh’s author went nowhere at the box office.

That shouldn’t be the case here. The Mouse Factory is certainly astute at marketing their product and the familiarity with Winnie and friends won’t hurt. It may even succeed at tapping into adult moviegoers hungry for a nostalgic fix. Depending on how high Mission: ImpossibleFallout flies this coming weekend, a low to possibly mid 30s gross from Robin could put it in contention for the top spot. That seems reasonable for where this begins.

Christopher Robin opening weekend prediction: $29.6 million

For my The Spy Who Dumped Me prediction, click here:

The Spy Who Dumped Me Box Office Prediction

For my The Darkest Minds prediction, click here:

The Darkest Minds Box Office Prediction

Planes: Fire & Rescue Box Office Prediction

Walt Disney Studios brings their animated sequel Planes: Fire & Rescue to theaters this Friday and they are hoping to find more success than other animated follow-ups in 2014. This spring, 20th Century Fox saw lackluster results with Rio 2, which grossed $129 million (less than the $143M of its 2011 predecessor). And then there’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 which has taken in a disappointing $147 million, far less than the $217M of its 2010 original.

The Planes sequel may have better luck for a couple of reasons. First, the expectations aren’t nearly as high. Featuring the voices of Dane Cook, Julie Bowen, Ed Harris, and many others – Fire & Rescue isn’t expected to greatly outdo the $90 million haul of its original, which came out last summer. That factor – that the predecessor came out less than a year ago – should keep it fresh in family audience’s minds. On the other hand, the first Rio and Dragon pictures had come out three and four years prior.

Planes took in $22 million last August on its way to that $90M gross. #2 may manage to take in a bit more than that and I figure it’ll pretty much take in what its predecessor did when all is said and done.

Planes: Fire & Rescue opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million

For my Sex Tape prediction, click here:

Sex Tape Box Office Prediction

For my The Purge: Anarchy prediction, click here:

The Purge: Anarchy Box Office Prediction