Tag: Box Office

April 1-3 Box Office Predictions

After a lengthy COVID delay, Morbius with Jared Leto sinks its teeth into multiplexes this weekend. It’s the only new release and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Morbius Box Office Prediction

The third entry in the Spider-Man Extended Universe after the massively successful Venom flicks, Morbius likely won’t approach their numbers. Mid to high 40s, however, should easily nab it the #1 spot.

After an impressive start, look for the Sandra Bullock/Channing Tatum comedic adventure The Lost City to dip in the mid 40s with The Batman sliding to third. The five spot could be close between the sophomore frame of RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt (which should experience a steep decline) and Uncharted.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Morbius

Predicted Gross: $45.8 million

2. The Lost City

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $12 million

4. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

5. RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (March 25-27)

As mentioned, The Lost City premiered on the high end of estimates with $30.4 million (reaching just past my $28.4 million take). After a pair of Netflix hits, Bullock posted a pleasing debut and Tatum has his second solid performer in a row after Dog. 

The Batman fell to second after three weeks on top with $20.4 million, in range with my $21.6 million projection. The Caped Crusader reboot has amassed $331 million.

The Indian action drama RRR had the best per screen average as it began with $9.5 million, rising ahead of my $7.8 million prediction.

Uncharted was fourth with $5 million, falling short of my $6.1 million guesstimate. The six-week tally is $133 million.

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 rounded out the top five with $4.5 million (I said $5 million) for a two-week haul of $27 million.

X was sixth with $2.2 million, a tad under my $2.7 million prediction for $8 million overall in its first 10 days.

Dog was seventh with $2.2 million. I went with $2.7 million and the gross is $57 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Morbius Box Office Prediction

Sony and Marvel are hoping there’s plenty of buyers in the Morbius club as the dark superhero tale finally premieres on April 1st. Led by Jared Leto in the title vampiric role, Daniel Espinosa directs with a supporting cast including Matt Smith, Adria Arjona, Al Madrigal, and Tyrese Gibson.

This is the third entry in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe after the two Venom flicks from 2018 and last year. Both of them were massive hits and, of course, we are on the heels of Spider-Man: No Way Home being the third largest domestic earner in history.

Morbius was originally set for release all the way back in summer of 2020 before its numerous COVID related delays. Shot for a reported $75 million, it should have no trouble making its money back (especially when including international grosses). Yet I’m skeptical it approaches the $80 million that Venom started with or $90 million that its sequel earned out of the gate a few months back.

Estimates are in the $40-$50 million range and my hunch is that projecting a debut in the middle end of that range is the call.

Morbius opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million

March 25-27 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/24): The Indian period adventure RRR is slated for a release on over 1100 screens and it could be a sleeper hit for the weekend based on buzz and pre-sales. I’m adding it in the mix for a third place debut.

Sandra Bullock, Channing Tatum, Brad Pitt, and Daniel Radcliffe will try to dislodge The Batman from its three-week perch atop the charts when The Lost City debuts this Friday. It’s the only newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on the comedic adventure here:

The Lost City Box Office Prediction

My mid to high 20s estimate for the well reviewed City gets it to first place as long as The Batman sees a drop in the high 30s to low 40s range. It could end up being a close race, but I’m giving Bullock and company the benefit of the doubt.

As for the rest of the top 5, current #2 Jujutsu Kaisen 0 easily surpassed expectations in its debut (more on that below), but the sophomore drop should be steep (similar to the 70% fall of animated manga tale Demon Slayer). That would leave Uncharted in third with Kaisen fourth. In the five spot, Dog (also with Channing Tatum) may have a slighter dip than X in what might be a tight race for that position.

And with that, here’s my take on this Oscar frame’s top 7 performers:

1. The Lost City

Predicted Gross: $28.4 million

2. The Batman 

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

3. RRR

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Jujutsu Kaisen 0

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Dog

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. X

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

 

Box Office Results (March 18-20)

While there were newbies to view, The Batman ruled the roost while Jujutsu had a terrific premiere. Robert Pattinson’s debut as the DCEU Crusader took in $36.7 million, below my projection of $42.1 million. The three-week tally sits at an impressive $300 million.

Jujutsu blew away prognostications with $17.6 million. The FUNimation entry (which was already a hit overseas) easily toppled my meager $9.8 million take. Like other genre fare, its opening frame should represent a large portion of the overall domestic gross.

Uncharted was third with $7.8 million. I was right on target at $7.7 million. Total earnings are $125 million.

Horror pic X from A24 capitalized on solid reviews and came in fourth with a decent $4.4 million. That’s ahead of my $2.9 million estimate and it will hope for solid holds in coming weekends.

Dog rounded out the top five with $3.9 million, a touch below my $4.6 million prediction. It’s up to $54 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million) and the massive haul is $797 million.

Finally, crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance started in 8th place with a muted $1.4 million. That is better than my $1 million forecast, however.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Lost City Box Office Prediction

Sandra Bullock is fresh off widely seen Netflix titles like Bird Box and The Unforgivable. Channing Tatum’s Dog is currently performing well in multiplexes. The two team up on March 25th for The Lost City, a romantic comedy adventure drawing comparisons to 1984’s Romancing the Stone. Adam and Aaron Nee co-direct. The two leads aren’t the only big names in the cast as Brad Pitt (said to be a standout) and Daniel Radcliffe join the party alongside Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Bowen Yang.

It’s a rare title in this era where the release date was pushed up (from April). City screened at South by Southwest last weekend to pleasing results. Based on 12 reviews thus far, it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is exactly the type of escapist fare that should appeal widely to action fans and with a female demographic to boot. It could end The Batman‘s reign atop the charts. I do believe a gross north of $30 million is totally possible, but I’ll put it a bit below that mark. That should set up a showdown between this and the Caped Crusader for box office supremacy.

The Lost City opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million

X Box Office Prediction

Set in 1979 and melding the genres of horror with adult filmmaking, Ti West’s X is slated for spots in over 2000 theaters this weekend. The slasher pic (which premiered at South by Southwest days ago) stars Mia Goth, Jenna Ortega (just coming off Scream), Martin Henderson, Brittany Snow, Owen Campbell, and Scott Mescudi (aka Kid Cudi).

Reviews are sharp with a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, I do believe its box office potential is limited. Unlike most recent horror titles, it’s not a sequel/remake/prequel/requel. While A24 materials often receives acclaim, they can struggle at multiplexes.

Despite the hefty screen count, I’ll project this struggles to reach $3 million.

X opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

March 18-20 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My prediction for X is in at $2.9 million and that keeps it outside of the top five. It may be accessed here:

X Box Office Prediction

The Caped Crusader should easily make it a three-peat at #1 while the Japanese animated fantasy Jujutsu Kaisen 0 and crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

Let’s begin with The Outfit because my mere $1 million estimate leaves it outside of the top five. As for Jujutsu, my projection should put it in either the two or three slot depending on how much Uncharted dips. It could be close.

The Batman‘s sophomore drop was a solid 50% and it stands to lose less in its third outing. Dog and Spider-Man: No Way Home should stay in the four and five positions.

Here’s how I see it breaking down:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $42.1 million

2. Jujutsu Kaisen 0

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

3. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

4. Dog

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Spider-Man: No Way Home 

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

As mentioned, The Batman continued to rock the charts in weekend #2 with a sturdy hold at $66.5 million. That’s higher than my $62.5 million take and the ten-day total is $239 million.

All holdovers experienced meager declines (between 10-17% for all). Uncharted remained in the runner-up spot with $9.2 million compared to my $6.7 million take. It stands at an impressive $113 million.

The surprise of the weekend was BTS Permission to Dance on Stage – Seoul. The live concert pic with the K-pop superstars played in theaters on Saturday night and amassed $6.8 million for third place. I didn’t have it on my radar.

Dog was fourth with $5.2 million, a tad ahead of my $4.4 million prediction for $47 million overall.

Spider-Man: No Way Home rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $3.8 million) to bring the gargantuan haul to $792 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

After premiering at the Berlin Film Festival to solid reviews, crime drama The Outfit hits approximately 1200 screens on March 18th. Graham Moore, Oscar winner for penning the screenplay for The Imitation Game, makes his directorial debut. The cast is led by Mark Rylance with Zoey Deutch, Dylan O’Brien, Johnny Flynn, and Simon Russell Beale in the supporting cast.

While critical reaction is pleasing (92% on Rotten Tomatoes), the lack of star power and fairly low theater count makes me skeptical that this breaks through to domestic crowds.

I don’t believe this will average even $1,000 per location. If it fits in the $800-$900 range, it may manage to clear $1 million. I’m not even confident about that, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt.

The Outfit opening weekend prediction: $1 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my X prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

A prequel to a popular Japanese animated manga series, Jujutsu Kaisen 0 arrives stateside March 18th. Directed by Sunghoo Park, the Toho produced action fantasy from creator Gege Akutami has already earned over $100 million internationally.

Toho, the studio that gave us Godzilla, has had domestic success with recent releases in the U.S. My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising took in just over $5 million in spring 2020 for its start. In October 2021, My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising generated a tad above $6 million. In lower and non My Hero Academia series comps, Monster Hunter from December 2020 took in $2.2 million out of the gate (at a time when theaters were operating at their most extreme levels of COVID incapacity). That north of $2 million tally actually made it #1. And then there’s Demon Slayer, which did incredible business in April 2021 with $21 million in its first weekend.

With The Batman poised to perch itself for a third frame at #1, Jujutsu should post a healthy second or third place showing (depending on how Uncharted holds). I don’t think it gets near Slayer numbers, but it could get to mid to high single digits or possibly more.

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

For my X prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction

March 11-13 Box Office Predictions

With no new wide releases this weekend (or the next one), The Batman should easily maintain its perch atop the charts. The question is how much it drops in the sophomore frame.

I’m projecting a dip in the low to mid 50s range which would give it around $60-$65 million. Other holdovers should maintain their current rankings in the top five with smallish declines considering the lack of competition.

Here’s how I see it breaking down:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $62.5 million

2. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

3. Dog

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $1.9 million

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

As was widely expected, The Batman easily achieved the second best opening of the COVID era (behind Spidey). Robert Pattinson’s introduction as the Caped Crusader took in $134 million. That’s not near as high as my $155.2 million projection but it’s still a solid haul. With an A- Cinemascore grade and little competition, it will rule the month of March until The Lost City arrives on March 25th.

Uncharted dropped to second with $11.1 million, a tad ahead of my $10.5 million forecast. Tom Holland’s almost sure to be newest franchise sits at a cool $100 million.

Channing Tatum’s Dog was third with $6.1 million (I said $6.4 million) for a three-week take of $40 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was fourth at $4.5 million compared to my $3.8 million prediction. The massive tally is $786 million.

Death on the Nile rounded out the top five with $2.7 million (I went with $2.5 million). Total is $37 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… same Bat time… same Bat channel…

March 4-6 Box Office Predictions

It’s an eagerly awaited weekend at the box office as The Batman looks to have the second highest debut of the COVID era (behind only Spider-Man: No Way Home). The DCEU reboot with Robert Pattinson as the Caped Crusader is the only new release of this weekend (and the majority of March) and my detailed prediction post on it can be found here:

The Batman Box Office Prediction

The range of possibility is wide (anywhere from $100 to $200 million depending on what you’re reading). I believe a gross just north of $150 million is most likely and my projection gives it the 20th largest domestic opening of all time.

Holdovers should experience heftier dips than this past weekend with Uncharted, Dog, Spider-Man, and Death on the Nile all sliding a spot. Here’s how I see it looking:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $155.2 million

2. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Dog

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Spider-Man: No Way Home

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million

5. Death on the Nile

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (February 25-27)

The leftovers didn’t spoil during the last frame of February while the two newcomers didn’t prove appetizing to moviegoers.

Uncharted ruled the charts for the second frame with $23 million, just ahead of my $21.8 million forecast for a two-week total of $83 million. Tom Holland, as I mentioned last week, has himself another promising franchise.

Channing Tatum’s Dog was a good boy in its sophomore outing with $10.1 million, outpacing my $8.4 million take. The two-week haul is $30 million.

Spider-Man: No Way Home was third with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) for a gargantuan take of $779 million.

Death on the Nile was fourth with $4.4 million, edging my $3.7 million prediction for a stalled $32 million overall.

Jackass Forever rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I went with $2.8 million). It’s up to $52 million.

The fresh product managed respective 8th and 9th place starts. Studio 666, the horror comedy from the Foo Fighters, made only $1.5 million compared to my $2.1 million estimate. Cyrano with Peter Dinklage fared even worse with $1.3 million (I said $1.8 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…