Tag: Box Office

August 25-27 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’ve downgraded my Turismo prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M.

The month of August closes out with a trio of new titles and National Cinema Day happening on Sunday with ticket prices at $4 in thousands of theaters. The Playstation based racing drama Gran Turismo, faith-based baseball drama The Hill, and Liam Neeson’s action thriller Retribution premiere and you can access my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction
The Hill Box Office Prediction
Retribution Box Office Prediction

With high familiarity for the video game source material and decent enough reviews, Gran Turismo should place first with a mid 20s haul. The National Cinema Day bargain prices on Sunday could push this to grosses similar to what Blue Beetle made in its opening.

Speaking of Beetle, it may drop from first to third in its sophomore frame after a poor start (more on that below). That’s because Barbie should see a smaller decline and remain in second.

As for other holdovers, Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should each ease a spot to fourth and fifth.

That’s because I don’t envision The Hill or Retribution hitting the top five. The former could exceed my forecast if it breaks through with Christian audiences. I have it at $3.3 million. With Retribution, I see no compelling reason why it wouldn’t open on pace with recent Neeson pics and that’d mean an opening of just over $3 million. I’ll go a tad less with $2.4 million.

Here’s how I see that high five playing out:

1. Gran Turismo

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $16.5 million

3. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Box Office Results (August 18-20)

Good news and bad news for Warner Bros as Barbie became the studio’s largest domestic earner of all time over 2008’s The Dark Knight. Obviously that’s the good news.

WB saw Barbie‘s four-week reign atop the charts by the WB’s Blue Beetle. Yet that’s kinda the bad news because its $25 million beginning is the lowest in the decade plus history of the DCU. It did manage to barely top my $23.7 million take, but it’s still a subpar start.

As for Barbie, it was second with $21 million. That’s just under my $22.5 million projection as its $566 million total set for the aforementioned record.

Oppenheimer was third with $10.7 million compared to my $12.7 million estimate for a five-week tally of $285 million.

Fourth place belonged to Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem with $8.5 million (I said $9.2 million) for $88 million in three weeks.

Rounding out the top five in disappointing fashion was Strays. The R rated comedy featuring Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx voicing dirty dogs tanked with $8.2 million. I was kinder at $13.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform. Until next time…

The Hill Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’m downgrading my prediction from $4.6M to $3.3M

Biographical sports drama The Hill might face an uphill climb at the box office this weekend, but Briarcliff Entertainment hopes it overperforms. Jeff Celentano directs with Colin Ford as real life baseball player Rickey Hill and Dennis Quaid as his father. Costars include Joelle Carter, Randy Houser, Bonnie Bedelia, and Scott Glenn.

This could manage to exceed expectations due to its faith-based themes. At the least, it might top Liam Neeson’s Retribution on the charts. Another potential plus could be today’s announcement of National Cinema Day where tickets will be $4 this Sunday across thousands of venues.

All that said, I’m not confident this reaches anywhere near $10 million and it might be lucky to gross half of that for its start.

The Hill opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million

For my Gran Turismo prediction, click here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction

For my Retribution prediction, click here:

Retribution Box Office Prediction

Retribution Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’m downgrading my prediction from $3.2M to $2.4M

Liam Neeson’s string of action thrillers continues with Retribution this weekend as he attempts to reverse some recent box office bad luck. Predators director Nimrod Antal is behind the camera with a supporting cast including Noma Dumezweni, Lilly Aspell, Jack Champion, Embeth Davidtz, and Matthew Modine.

The Neeson shoot-em-ups this decade haven’t come close to matching Taken, its sequels, and other hits that followed shortly thereafter. Yet their opening grosses have been remarkably consistent. 2020’s Honest Thief made off with $3.6 million for its start. In 2021, The Marksman hit $3.1 million. In 2022, Blacklight took in $3.5 million while the same year’s Memory made $3.1 million.

I haven’t seen a screen count for this Roadside Attractions effort and that could alter my projection. However, I don’t see any reason why this would make considerably more or less than the aforementioned genre exercises. Perhaps National Cinema Day on Sunday (with ticket prices at $4) will help, but I wouldn’t count on it.

Retribution opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my Gran Turismo prediction, click here:

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction

For my The Hill prediction, click here:

The Hill Box Office Prediction

Gran Turismo Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/23): I’m downgrading my prediction from $24.3M to $19.3M

Sony hopes viewers are game for Gran Turismo when it opens August 25th. Neill Blomkamp, best known for 2009’s Best Picture nominee District 9, directs the racing sports drama based on the Playstation property. Archie Madekwe stars as a real life Turismo player who became an actual driver. The supporting cast includes David Harbour, Orlando Bloom, Darren Barnet, Djimon Hounsou, Geri Haliwell Horner, and Thomas Kretschmann.

While it’s generating mixed reviews (59% on Rotten Tomatoes), the audience score is an impressive 98% based on limited previews over the preceding two weekends. It was originally slated for August 11th before the studio pushed it back. The decent buzz should manage to get this past $20 million, but I’m not sure it gets much beyond that. That number should allow it to close out August as the strongest finisher on the charts.

Gran Turismo opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million

For my Retribution prediction, click here:

Retribution Box Office Prediction

For my The Hill prediction, click here:

The Hill Box Office Prediction

August 18-20 Box Office Predictions

The DCEU hopes to halt a string of disappointments with Blue Beetle while Strays features the vocal canine stylings of Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx. Both pics will attempt to dethrone Barbie after four weeks on top. My individual prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction
Strays Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros and DC Comics have seen some underwhelming returns as of late with Black Adam, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, and this summer’s mega flop The Flash. I don’t anticipate their fortunes will turn with Beetle. A best case scenario might be $30 million. My projection below $25 million does give it an ever so slight edge over Barbie (which I see falling in the mid 30s in its fifth outing). Yet I doubt WB/DC will be bragging.

As for Strays, the R-rated comedy might have benefitted from Ferrell and Foxx hitting the promotion circuit. With the SAG-AFTRA strike, that’s not an option. This genre has struggled in recent years anyway. My low to mid teens take puts it in third with a start similar to No Hard Feelings from a few weeks back.

Oppenheimer and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem should fill out the rest of the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Blue Beetle

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

2. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

3. Strays

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

4. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

Box Office Results (August 11-13)

The summer phenomenon that is Barbenheimer returned to rule the charts with Barbie leading the way. In its fourth frame, it took in $33.8 million and that’s good for the ninth best fourth weekend in history. It’s also a touch higher than my $30.4 million forecast as it climbed to $526 million overall.

Oppenheimer returned to the runner-up slot with $18.8 million, on target with my $19 million take. Christopher Nolan’s epic was down only 35% and it’s up to $264 million.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rose from fourth to third with $15.2 million in its sophomore weekend. My prediction? $15.2 million! The acclaimed animated reboot has made $72 million.

As anticipated, Meg 2: The Trench suffered the heftiest drop of the holdovers (57%). Falling from second to fourth, the shark sequel grossed $12.8 million (I said $12 million) to bring its tally to $54 million. On the brighter side, it’s making a killing overseas like its 2018 predecessor.

Finally, The Last Voyage of the Demeter bombed in fifth with $6.5 million. Dubbed the “Dracula on a Boat” movie, audiences weren’t intrigued as it premiered on pace with my $6.4 million projection. With a B- Cinemascore, looking for it to sink even further next weekend.

And that does it for now, folks! Check out my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite listening stream. Until next time…

Strays Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures achieved box office success with a Cocaine Bear earlier this year. They’re hoping raunchy talking dogs sell tickets on August 18th when Strays debuts. Josh Greenbaum directs with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx lending their vocal talents to the headlining hounds. Isla Fisher and Randall Park also provide behind the mic work. Other cast members include Will Forte, Josh Gad, Harvey Guillén, Rob Riggle, Brett Gelman, Jamie Demetriou, Sofia Vergara, and Dennis Quaid.

Originally set for June, the studio would dream of Sausage Party style success. It premiered in the same mid-August frame in 2016 to over $30 million. Party also had considerably more buzz. Comedies have also struggled mightily in the past few years.

I could see this opening similarly to this summer’s No Hard Feelings and that would mean low to mid teens.

Strays opening weekend prediction: $13.5 million

For my Blue Beetle prediction, click here:

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction

Blue Beetle Box Office Prediction

The DCEU, via Black Adam and The Flash, has had a rough go at the box office lately and Warner Bros hopes that turns around with Blue Beetle on August 18th. This could be a tall order. Angel Manuel Soto directs with Xolo Maradueña as the title hero. Costars include Adriana Barraza, Damián Alcázar, Raoul Max Trujillo, Susan Sarandon, Elpidia Carrillo, and George Lopez.

Originally slated for HBO Max, the studio changed its plans to a theatrical release. Budgeted at a reported $120 million, Beetle will battle the fact that plenty of moviegoers simply aren’t familiar with the character (and that the DCEU brand is not exactly firing on all cylinders lately).

Projections have varied over the past few weeks ranging from low teens all the way to the low 30s. Anything below $20 million would be considered a disaster. I’ll give it a little credit and say it climbs just over that figure. Unless it manages to generate significantly positive buzz, it could be gone in a flash.

Blue Beetle opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million

For my Strays prediction, click here:

Strays Box Office Prediction

August 11-13 Box Office Predictions

The box office bonanza that is Barbenheimer looks to return to the 1-2 positions as waterlogged horror entry The Last Voyage of the Demeter is the only newcomer this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Demeter may struggle to make de-money (I apologize). Besides the rather bad title, I’m not seeing this have much bite with genre fans. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth… distantly.

Barbie should have no trouble maintaining the top spot for the fourth weekend in a row. After scoring the 11th largest third frame in domestic history, my $30M+ take gives it the 11th best fourth outing.

Oppenheimer looks to have the slightest decline of the returnees (perhaps mid 30s) and that could mean a bump from 3rd to 2nd.

That’s because current #2 Meg 2: The Trench seems poised for the heftiest dip. Its B- Cinemascore grade (compared to its predecessor’s B+) could mean a 60% plummet after its solid premiere (more on that below).

The second weekend for Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (with its A Cinemascore grade) should be rosier with a mid 40s percent downgrade. If that occurs, the crimefighting reptiles might jump to 3rd with Meg in fourth.

Here’s how I see it all playing out:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million

2. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $15.2 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $12 million

5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (August 4-6)

I underestimated the giant shark sequel and overestimated the green that the animated reboot would make in respect to Meg 2 and Turtles. As expected, neither came anywhere close to catching Barbie.

The summer smash added another $53 million to its considerable coffers. While that’s under my take of $60.4 million, the $459 domestic cume is astonishing. It also crossed $1 billion worldwide.

Meg 2: The Trench bit off $30 million in second place. That’s well under the $45 million achieved by its predecessor five years back, but ahead of my $24.5 million forecast. The sequel, like the original, will make the bulk of its bucks overseas.

Oppenheimer was third with $29.1 million, right on track with my $29.3 million projection. The acclaimed biopic has amassed $228 million in three weeks.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem generally opened in line with expectations at $28 million from Friday to Sunday and $43 million since its Wednesday bow. I thought it might exceed those numbers and went with $36.1 million and $51.2 million, respectively.

Finally, Haunted Mansion played to empty houses in weekend #2 with a 62% fall in fifth to $9.2 million (I said $11.4 million). The tepid two-week tally is $42 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Keep an eye on the blog this week for my prediction posts on Blue Beetle and Strays and listen to my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your preferred streaming platform…

The Last Voyage of the Demeter Box Office Prediction

Universal hopes that horror fans board The Last Voyage of the Demeter when it opens August 11th. Based on a chapter from Bram Stoker’s signature novel Dracula, André Øvredal (maker of Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark) directs Corey Hawkins, Aisling Franciosi, David Dastmalchian, Javier Botet, Liam Cunningham, and Woody Norman in the tale of passengers trying to surviving a trip from Transylvania to London.

The Dracula angle could succeed in getting some genre fans out, but this Voyage‘s marketing campaign seems to be lacking. At this point, the studio might settle for a premiere similar to its Idris Elba starrer Beast, which took in nearly $12 million in mid-August last year. It could also debut in range with the vampiric The Invitation, which didn’t reach $7 million a week after Beast opened.

A gross closer to The Invitation as opposed to Beast is where this might land.

The Last Voyage of the Demeter opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million

August 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Pizza loving reptilian crimefighters are back and a giant shark wreaks havoc on humans and animals (again) as Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem and Meg 2: The Trench open wide this week. You can peruse my detailed predictions posts on the newcomers here:

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem Box Office Prediction
Meg 2: The Trench Box Office Prediction

Turtles is getting the best reviews of any picture in the 30 year plus franchise as the animated reboot opens on Wednesday. With positive buzz and a healthy nostalgia factor, mid to high 30s over the traditional weekend and a five-day haul topping $50 million appears to be an achievable level of green.

The competition from Donatello, Michelangelo, Raphael, and Leonardo could hurt Meg 2 a tad. While the 2018 original premiered with $45 million, a mid 20s gross might be all that the sequel bites off.

This means the newbies may lag behind Barbie (for Turtles) and Oppenheimer (for Trench). Greta Gerwig’s take on the iconic doll should easily spend a third weekend atop the charts after a magnificent sophomore hold (more on that below). Oppenheimer could approach nearly $30 million in its third go-round.

Following a lackluster start, Disney’s Haunted Mansion should see a dip of at least 50% for fifth place.

Here’s how I see the pieces falling into place:

1. Barbie

Predicted Gross: $60.4 million

2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem

Predicted Gross: $36.1 million (Friday to Sunday); $51.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Oppenheimer

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Meg 2: The Trench

Predicted Gross: $24.5 million

5. Haunted Mansion

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

Box Office Results (July 28-30)

As mentioned, Barbie was nothing to toy with in its second outing as the phenomenon made off with $93 million (ahead of my $82.6 million prediction). That’s the seventh largest sophomore weekend in box office history between The Avengers and The Super Mario Bros. Movie. My estimate above, incidentally, gives it the seventh best third frame.

Barbie only fell 43% and the same was true for Oppenheimer in second. Christopher Nolan’s Oscar contender took in $46.7 million, reaching a bit higher than my $43.8 million take. The three hour biopic has amassed $174 million thus far.

The Mouse House had another disappointment with Haunted Mansion. With mediocre reviews and scant chatter, the family fright flick was third with $24 million compared to my slightly better $25.4 million projection. Look for it to fade quickly.

Sound of Freedom was fourth with $12.8 million (I said $14.7 million) as the season’s sleeper hit is up to $149 million.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One rounded out the top five with $10.6 million. My call? $10.6 million! In three weeks, the Tom Cruise sequel has underwhelmed with $139 million.

Finally, A24’s acclaimed low-budget horror pic Talk to Me was a robust sixth with $10.4 million. That’s well beyond my meager guesstimate of $3.6 million. Lesson learned – bet the over on this genre.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…