20th Century Studios is banking on audiences wishing to acquaint themselves with The Creator when it debuts September 29th. The sci-fi action flick is original IP from Godzilla (the 2014 version) and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story maker Gareth Edwards (the director co-scripted with Chris Weitz). Tenet lead John David Washington headlines with a supporting cast including Madeleine Yuna Voyles, Gemma Chan, Ken Watanabe, Sturgill Simpson, and Allison Janney.
Made for a reported $80 million, this represents a gamble from the studio. Mr. Washington (unlike his dad Denzel) is not yet a bankable force whose presence can open a movie. As mentioned, it doesn’t have the franchise familiarity of Edwards’s previous two titles.
The Creator will hope for decent grosses stateside and an impressive haul abroad. I question whether this takes in $20 million for its start and I’ll put it a bit under that mark.
The Creator opening weekend prediction: $17.9 million
Jason Statham and Sylvester Stallone look to top the charts as Expend4bles, the fourth entry in the action franchise, is the only new wide release this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I have it just under the teens and that’s a far cry from the mid 30s/high 20s premieres that parts 1 and 2 achieved. It’s also below the $15.8 million that The Expendables 3 made in 2014. That said, given the weak box office frame happening, it should be enough for a #1 debut.
Just as the competition for #1 was a photo finish this past weekend (more on that below), The Nun II and A Haunting in Venice should duke it out for the runner-up spot.
Nos. 4 and 5 should go to holdover threequels The Equalizer 3 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3. However, Barbie might manage to stay fifth depending on the Greek drop and the fact that it’s playing on IMAX screens this weekend.
Here’s how I think it’ll shake out from 1-6:
1. Expend4bles
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
2. The Nun II
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
3. A Haunting in Venice
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
4. The Equalizer 3
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (September 15-17)
In a minor upset, The Nun II managed to remain #1 for a second weekend. That upends the conventional wisdom that A Haunting in Venice would claim the top slot. With a better than expected 55% fall (decent for the horror genre), The Nun II made $14.5 million compared to my $10.9 million projection. The scary sequel has made $56 million in two weeks.
A Haunting in Venice, the third Kenneth Branagh entry in his Hercule Poirot series, was a close second with $14.2 million. That’s right on track with my $14.6 million take. Considering last year’s Death on the Nile struggled as well, I wouldn’t anticipate seeing the mustachioed detective for a fourth mystery.
The Equalizer 3 was third with $7.2 million, in line with my $7 million call. Denzel Washington’s alleged capper to his franchise has made $73 million in three weeks.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 saw a sophomore frame decline above 50% with $4.7 million (I was more generous at $5.9 million). Total is just $18 million.
Barbie rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.6 million) to bring its nine-week haul to $625 million.
Over nine years have passed since the seasoned action stars of The Expendables franchise have been onscreen. That changes on September 22nd with the rather strangely titled Expend4bles. It is the fourth entry of the series that’s seen diminishing returns with each release. Scott Waugh directs and cast members reprising their roles are Jason Statham, Sylvester Stallone, Dolph Lundgren, and Randy Couture. New players to the mix include Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson, Megan Fox, Tony Jaa, Iko Uwais, Jacob Scipio, Levy Tran, and Andy Garcia.
In 2010, the original feature exceeded expectations with a nearly $35 million opening weekend and $103 million overall domestic tally. Two years later, part 2 ebbed slightly with a $28 million start and $85 million total. By 2014, audiences were growing weary and it didn’t help that part 3 had a PG-13 rating. The Expendables 3 made just over $15 million in its premiere and only $39 million when all was said and done.
It’s a little surprising that the franchise is coming back at all. The R rating from the first two is back, but the grosses should still be rocky. Expend4bles may be lucky to make what its predecessor did out of the gate. I think it will probably fall short.
Expend4bles opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
Sequel heavy September chugs along this weekend as Kenneth Branagh’s A Haunting in Venice continues his Hercule Poirot series and seeks a #1 start. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The follow-up to 2017’s Murder on the Orient Express and last year’s Death on the Nile is actually receiving some of the best reviews of the trio. I suspect it may manage to top what Nile did while only reaching about half of what Express grossed out of the gate.
After a solid if unspectacular start, The Nun II may see a high 60s plummet that’s fairly normal for its genre. That would mean a second place showing barely in the double digits.
Holdover threequels The Equalizer 3 and My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 will likely populate the 3-4 slots with drops in the low to mid 40s while Barbie should round out the top five. I figure the year’s biggest hit will remain in the high five as I look for Jawan to have a hefty decline after its impressive premiere (more on that below).
Here’s how I envision that top five:
1. A Haunting in Venice
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
2. The Nun II
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
3. The Equalizer 3
Predicted Gross: $7 million
4. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (September 8-10)
The Nun II didn’t come anywhere near the franchise Conjuring Universe peak $53 million that its predecessor made in 2018. It still scared up a respectable $32.6 million, under my $38.7 million prognosis.
The Equalizer 3 tumbled in the mid 60s during its sophomore frame with $12 million, below my $15.4 million call. The two-week total is $61 million as it hopes to hit $100 million like parts 1 and 2. It’s a legit question mark as to whether it gets there.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 debuted in line with my expectations with a meh $10 million (I said $10.3 million). That is slightly better than other estimates though it’s well under the $16 million of part 2 from 2016.
Acclaimed Hindi action flick Jawan admittedly was not on my radar screen like it should’ve been. The $6.1 million haul put it in fourth place with the second strongest per theater average after The Nun II.
Barbie rounded out the top five with $5.7 million (I went with $6.4 million) as its eight week total rose to a massive $620 million.
I incorrectly had Blue Beetle in the top five, but it was sixth with $3.8 million. I was right on pace with $3.9 million. The DCU disappointment made $63 million in four weeks.
Kenneth Branagh’s grandly mustachioed master sleuth Hercule Poirot is back in cinemas on September 15th with A Haunting in Venice. Based on Agatha Christie’s 1969 work Hallowe’en Party, this is the third mystery in the franchise that began with Branagh’s 2017 version of Murder on the Orient Express and continued last year with Death on the Nile. In addition to its director/star, the cast includes Kyle Allen, Camille Cottin, Jamie Dornan, Tina Fey, Jude Hill, Ali Khan, Emma Laird, Kelly Reilly, Riccardo Scamarcio, and current Best Actress winner Michelle Yeoh.
The first trailer for Haunting definitely leaned on the horror elements of its story and not the fact that it’s a continuation of the Express and Nile series. That’s not surprising when you consider that Nile came in well under its predecessor. While the Orient remake made $28 million out of the gate and $102 million overall domestically, the oft delayed Nile only earned $12.9 million for its start and $45 million overall a year and a half ago.
That horror angle might be a smart one for 20th Century Studios, but genre fans might be satiated with The Nun II (out the weekend prior). I do think this manages to top Death though not by much.
A Haunting in Venice opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
A sequel filled September continues with The Nun II looking to conjure up big money while My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 hopes to post comparable grosses to its 2016 predecessor. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
In 2018, The Nun surprisingly achieved the largest premiere in the Conjuring Universe (a record that still stands) at $53 million. While I don’t expect the follow-up to reach that level, a solid high 30s start is my call.
As for Greek Wedding, the first sequel didn’t come close to matching what the smash 2002 original accomplished. I see the numbers continuing to dwindle with the third iteration and I have it barely topping $10 million. That should put #3 in third.
Current champ The Equalizer 3 should fall to second after a robust Labor Day weekend haul (more on that below). A mid 50s decline should put it in the low to mid teens.
Barbie looks to land in the four spot while Oppenheimer and Blue Beetle could duke it out for fifth. I’ve got them both just under $4 million.
Here’s how I envision the top six:
1. The Nun II
Predicted Gross: $38.7 million
2. The Equalizer 3
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million
3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
4. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
6. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
Box Office Results (September 1-4)
Denzel Washington is quite consistent in his sole franchise as audiences turned up for The Equalizer 3. Reportedly the final entry in the violent series, it earned the second best Labor Day weekend of all time at $42.8 million. That edges my call of $39.2 million. The three-day gross of $34.6 million is right on target with its two predecessors.
Barbie was second with $13.4 million over the long frame. I was generous (a theme for the weekend) at $16.2 million. The highest grossing movie of 2023 sits at $612 million domestically.
Blue Beetle was third with $9.4 million (I said $9.5 million!) as the DCU disappointment has made $58 million after three weeks.
Gran Turismo, despite an A Cinemascore, plummeted from 1st to 4th in its sophomore outing. The racing flick stalled at $8.7 million, well under my $12.1 million take for just $30 million thus far.
Oppenheimer rounded out the top five at $7.6 million (I went with $9.1 million) for a mega $310 million tally.
Finally, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem crossed the nine digit mark. The animated reboot made $6.2 million in sixth (I said more with $8.4 million) for $107 million overall.
Way back in 2002, My Big Fat Greek Wedding became the sleeper hit of the year with a $241 million gross vs. its teeny $5 million budget. In 2016, a long gestating sequel emerged to a nearly $18 million opening weekend. Yet it faded quickly with a $59 million overall take.
The third edition of the rom com franchise is out September 8th. Nia Vardolos not only returns in the starring role, but she handles directorial duties. The ensemble cast includes John Corbett, Louis Mandylor, Elena Kampouris, Gia Carides, Joey Fatone, Lainie Kazan, and Andrea Martin.
I would anticipate this series will continue to see diminishing returns. Frankly, the performance of part 2 made it a surprise that Focus Features RSVP’d for a follow-up. This could struggle to make $10 million. I’ll put it just over that.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
Five years ago, The Nun upended conventional wisdom (get it??) with a larger than anticipated opening. At the time, it was the fifth feature in the Conjuring Universe and it set the opening weekend record for the horror franchise at $53 million. The sequel out September 8th is now the ninth entry with Michael Chaves directing (he also made The Curse of La Llorona and The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It). Taissa Farmiga, Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons (as The Nun) reprise their roles with Storm Reid and Anna Popplewell joining the cast.
Whether its The Conjuring and its sequels, Annabelle and her follow-ups, or The Nun, Warner Bros has made massive profits in the past decade from this series. Nun II‘s predecessor, in addition to the highest premiere, holds the second best overall domestic gross ($117 million while the first Conjuring took in $137 million). Each direct follow-up for Conjuring and Annabelle has seen slight to fairly substantial decreases in their debuts. 2013’s Conjuring made $41 million while part 2 made $40 million and the third slid to $24 million (with COVID complications to be fair). Annabelle started with $37 million while its sequel hit $35 million and the third did $20 million (a series low).
You’ll note that the second installments hold up rather well. The Nun II would need to top the original Conjuring‘s $41 million for the #2 beginning. That’s certainly doable, but I’ll project high 30s.
The Nun II opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million
For my My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 prediction, click here:
Denzel Washington hopes for a fruitful holiday weekend at the box office with The Equalizer 3. It aims to have the second best Labor Day debut of all time as the only newcomer of the frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The third feature in the action trilogy should have little trouble achieving that 2nd best mark. Labor Day weekend is normally one where studios avoid breaking out the big guns. In 2021, Marvel ignored that tradition with Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and its $94 million beginning. The runner-up opening belongs to 2007’s Halloween remake at $30 million and I’ve got Equalizer a shade under $40 million.
With an extra day of grosses, the weekend should see meager declines and even some increases for holdovers. I believe this should allow Barbie to stay put in second for the third week in a row while current champ Gran Turismo drops to third. The four to six slots should be a combination of Blue Beetle, Oppenheimer, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem. I have that trio separated by just over a million so their positions could fluctuate.
Here’s how I envision that top six and keep in mind these estimates are for the four-day:
1. The Equalizer 3
Predicted Gross: $39.2 million
2. Barbie
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. Gran Turismo
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
4. Blue Beetle
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
5. Oppenheimer
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
Box Office Results (August 25-27)
National Cinema Day on Sunday helped some pics post small declines, but it wasn’t enough to prevent the Playstation based Gran Turismo from a so-so start. The racing drama took in $17.4 million, a tad below my $19.3 million projection. That’s good enough for first, but hardly provides Sony with bragging rights. With an A Cinemascore, it’ll hope for legs over Labor Day and could be successful as I only have it falling around 15%.
Barbie was second with $15.1 million compared to my $16.5 million take. The year’s largest hit is up to $592 million in six weeks.
Blue Beetle went from 1st to 3rd with $12.1 million, a shade under my $13.2 million prediction. The DCU flop stands at only $45 million after ten days.
Oppenheimer was fourth with $8.2 million (I said $8.1 million) as the epic has amassed $299 million thus far.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem rounded out the top five with $7.2 million, in range with my $6.8 million estimate. The four-week total is $99 million.
Finally, two newcomers failed to find a crowd. Liam Neeson’s Retribution opened in line with the star’s recent action flicks with $3.5 million for eighth position. That is better than my call of $2.4 million. The nine slot went to sports drama The Hill with $2.3 million as it couldn’t climb to my $3.3 million guesstimate.
That does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation wherever you prefer to stream. Until next time…
On September 1st, Denzel Washington is back in theaters showcasing his particular set of violent skills in The Equalizer 3. Antoine Fuqua, who collaborated with the lead on the first two pics as well as Training Day and The Magnificent Seven, directs. Costars include Dakota Fanning (reuniting with Washington nearly 20 years after Man on Fire), Eugenio Mastrandrea, David Denman, Sonia Ammar, and Remo Girone.
The Italian set action threequel is billed as the finale of the trilogy that began in 2014. Originally based on the stylish 1980s TV show with Edward Woodard, part one generated $34 million in its debut and $101 million overall domestically. The 2018 follow-up posted very similar earnings with a $35 million start and $102 million total.
I suspect that consistency will continue the third time. It has the advantage of premiering over the four-day Labor Day frame with no newcomers out and most holdovers fading. From Friday to Monday, a gross topping $40 million is certainly achievable. I’ll put it a bit under.
The Equalizer 3 opening weekend prediction: $39.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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