Tyler Perry’s many cinematic undertakings get the spoof treatment with Not Another Church Movie on May 10th. Johnny Mack directs with Kevin Daniels as Taylor Pherry (in case there was any confusion) headlining. Jamie Foxx plays God with Mickey Rourke as the Devil. Other supporting players include Vivica A. Fox, Kyla Pratt, Lamorne Morris, Tisha Campbell, and Jasmine Guy.
I wonder if this parody might be arriving a little late as the Madea heyday was a few years back (though he’s still making them). This could still succeed in bringing in a decent sized African-American crowd. I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my estimate. Upper single digits would be an achievement. I’m not sure it gets that much, especially given the reported 1100 screen count.
Not Another Church Movie opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million
For my Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes prediction, click here:
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes marks the tenth franchise feature overall that began in 1968 and as a follow-up to the acclaimed and profitable trilogy from 2011-17. Out May 11th, Wes Ball (best known for The Maze Runner pics) takes over directorial duties from Matt Reeves. Set 300 years after the events of War for the Planet of the Apes, the cast includes Owen Teague, Freya Allan, Kevin Durand, Peter Macon, and William H. Macy.
Originally set for Memorial Day weekend, it was pushed up mainly to avoid a head to head with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. As mentioned, the last three Apes adventures were a success story for 20th Century Studios. Thirteen summers ago, Rise of the Planet of the Apes exceeded expectations with a $54 million start and $176 million overall domestically. 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes reaches a series apex with a $72 million premiere and $208 million eventual haul. 2017’s War was a slight letdown compared to its predecessor with a $56 million debut and $146 million stateside tally.
We have seen a recent example of a creature centric surpassing guesstimates in Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. The seven year break could hurt Kingdom, but I suspect this will manage a beginning very similar to Rise and War and not Dawn.
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $55.2 million
For my Not Another Church Movie prediction, click here:
In the spring of 1997, 20th Century Fox re-released the original Star Wars trilogy to impressive box office numbers. Timed to the 20th anniversary of Episode IV, it helped build already sky high anticipation for 1999’s Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace. Now 25 years after its debut, Disney/20th Century Studios has it back in multiplexes.
George Lucas’s return behind the camera was probably the most breathlessly awaited movie of all time a quarter century ago. It broke records in its initial release and ended up with a domestic haul of $431 million. A 3D re-release in 2012 pushed it to $474 million.
Carefully timed so that the Saturday falls on May 4th (a sacred day for followers of the franchise), Phantom will try to push its stateside total to nearly half a billion. Of course, Menace is not beloved in the way that episodes 4-6 are. Back in ’97, the Star Wars re-release took in nearly $36 million out of the gate. A few weeks later, The Empire Strikes Back debuted to $21.9 million while Return of the Jedi made off with $16.2 million.
Phantom is not expected to reach those figures and may even struggle to hit double digits. Yet with a reported 2600 screens, it should manage a second or third place premiere and I’ll give it mid single digits.
Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release opening weekend prediction: $6.8 million
The summer box office season officially rises with Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt in The Fall Guy as horror pic Tarot is also on deck. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Blogger’s Update (04/30): A couple hours after posting, per the comments below, I realized the large theatrical output that The Phantom Menance re-release is getting this weekend. My $6.8M projection puts it in third.
Loosely based on the 1980s action show, the supporting Oscar nominees from Barbenheimer should dominate the charts with The Fall Guy. This is the rare year in the past decade and a half that the MCU is sitting the first frame of May out. Fall won’t climb anywhere near as high as that franchise does to kick off the season. A best case scenario might be $50 million, but I’ve got it in the high 30s. This should leg out impressively over the coming weeks.
As for Tarot, a mid single digits take should place it fourth behind the second weekend of current champ Challengers and Phantom. Scary movies have struggled lately with recent genre titles failing to reach $10 million out of the box.
The sophomore drop for Challengers could have a somewhat wide range. A low to mid 40s decline would be considered a win. I suspect it might see a fall in the high 40s or low 50s region.
Another question mark is the percentage reduction for faith-based drama Unsung Hero in weekend #2. With an A+ Cinemascore grade, audiences are liking what they see and should be recommending to friends and, in this case, fellow parishioners. It might only witness a 25-35% decrease and has a decent shot at being fourth if Tarot comes in under my meager projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should round out the high six and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
3. Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Tarot
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
5. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
Box Office Results (April 26-28)
Zendaya and company fought off all competitors as Challengers served up $15 million in its opening. The well-reviewed love triangle didn’t quite match my $16.2 million forecast. It ended up right in its anticipated range.
Unsung Hero was runner-up with a solid $7.7 million, besting my $5.9 million call. In its first weekend it made back its tiny $6 million price tag and, as mentioned, should hold up well in the near future.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third in weekend #5 at $7.2 million compared to my $6 million prediction. The overall take is a roaring $181 million.
Civil War plummeted from 1st to 4th with $7 million while still topping my $6.3 million projection. The three-week tally is $56 million.
Abigail rounded out the top five in its sophomore go-round at $5.2 million (I was close at $5.4 million). Total is $18 million.
Finally, The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare was sixth with $3.8 million. I was higher at $5.2 million as it dove a hefty 57% in its second weekend.
Based on the early 90s novel Horrorscope from Nicholas Adams, Tarot is the latest scary movie hoping to bring in genre enthusiasts. Spenser Cohen and Anna Halberg share directorial duties with a cast including Harriet Slater, Adain Bradley, Avantika Vandanapu, Wolfgang Novogratz, and Jacob Batalon.
Moviegoers have been caught in a web of horror titles over the last several weeks. From Imaginary to The First Omen to Abigail, grosses have been unimpressive as all three of those pics have debuted in the $8-10 million range.
Tarot might be lucky to do that. Plenty of potential viewers will be preoccupied with The Fall Guy. That’s in addition to the aforementioned oversaturated market as of late. I say mid single digits is (yes…) in the cards.
For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.
This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).
Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).
I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.
The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million
For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:
Zendaya hopes to serve up healthy box office numbers as her sports drama Challengers debuts this weekend. We also have the faith-based drama Unsung Hero out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With impressive reviews and Zendaya hot off Dune: Part Two, Challengers should face no challenge in topping the charts. $20M+ is within the realm of possibility, but so is low teens. I’m in the middle of that range.
The numbers for slots 2-6 should be close. Unsung Hero is of a genre that can often surprise. However, my sub $6M projection puts it in fourth.
A mid 40s drop for Civil War would drop it to second after two weeks in first. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could hold in third with Abigail falling to fifth in its sophomore frame after a lackluster start (more on that below). That leaves The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare rounding out the top six after its mediocre premiere.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
3. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (April 19-21)
Civil War managed to stay at #1 in its second weekend despite a 56% plummet. Alex Garland’s dystopian action flick made $11.1 million, close to my $11.8 million prediction. The two-week gross is $44 million.
While the rollout didn’t totally suck, Abigail‘s #2 posting lacked bite. The vampire story scored solid reviews, but started on the lowest end of its anticipated range with $10.2 million. I gave it a bit more credit with a $13.1 million projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third with $9.5 million, just ahead of my $8.7 million call. The monster mashup has amassed $171 million after four weeks.
Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare took in a ho-hum $8.9 million for fourth position. It did manage to outdo my $7.6 million forecast.
Crunchyroll’s latest anime offering Spy x Family Code: White rounded out the top five with an unremarkable $4.8 million. That’s below the studio’s latest domestic outputs and well under my $9.8 million take.
Country star Joel Smallbone cowrites, co-directs, and plays his own father in Unsung Hero. The faith and factually based drama is out April 26th as the musician shares screenwriting and filmmaking duties with Richard Ramsey. Smallbone is a member of the Christian pop band For King & Country as this recounts his upbringing in Tennessee after moving from Australia. Daisy Betts, Kirrilee Berger, Jonathan Jackson, Lucas Black, and Cameron Cameron Buge are among the supporting cast.
The Lionsgate release is out stateside a month before the Australian premiere. Lionsgate hopes fans of the band make the theatrical trek and that brings us to my usual caveat. Faith-based pics are tough to project. They can easily exceed expectations, but they’ve been known to underwhelm from time to time (for instance Ordinary Angels didn’t match my prediction a few weeks ago).
I’ve yet to see a theater count so my projection could change when I see that figure. A high single digits start (or even low double digits) would easily put it in the runner-up spot. Mid single digits is what I’m forecasting and that might put it anywhere from 2-6 depending on how holdovers perform as April closes out. My current number has it rounding out the high five or being 6th instead of being 2nd.
Unsung Hero opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.
Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.
I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.
Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:
It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.
Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.
As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.
Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:
1. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. Spy x Family Code: White
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (April 12-14)
Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.
Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.
Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.
Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.
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