DreamWorks Animation looks for Dog Man to top the charts when it debuts January 31st. A spin-off of 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, Peter Hastings directs and provides the voice of the title canine. The adaptation of Dav Pilkey’s graphic novel features behind the mic work from Pete Davidson, Lil Rel Howery, Isla Fisher, Poppy Liu, Stephen Root, Billy Boyd, and Ricky Gervais.
In the summer of 2017, Underpants dropped with a $23.9 million premiere. That turned out to be a front loaded opening as it ended up with $73.9 million domestically. That could be right around where Dog sits and that should be enough for a first place showing.
Mark Wahlberg looks to guide Flight Risk to #1 this weekend and Angel Studios premieres their latest drama Brave the Dark. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The doldrums of January should continue at multiplexes with Flight Risk seeking action fans to get onboard. Directed by his Daddy’s Home 2 and Father Stu costar Mel Gibson, I have Wahlberg’s latest in the low double digits. That should be enough for the top spot.
After returning to first place by a nose, Mufasa: The Lion King should slip to second with One of Them Days in third after a better than anticipated runner-up showing (more on that below).
The fourth slot could be close between Brave the Dark and Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 6th frame. Wolf Man had a disappointing rollout and could ease to sixth with a decline in the mid 50s or so.
And with that, here’s how I envision the top 6:
1. Flight Risk
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
3. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Brave the Dark
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
6. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (January 17-19)
In the weakest MLK weekend in nearly a quarter century, Mufasa: The Lion King managed to climb back into the winners circle with $12 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s ahead of my $9.5 million call and it gives the Disney property $206 million after five weeks.
Buddy comedy One of Them Days starring Keke Palmer and SZA rode a wave of solid reviews to second place and $11.8 million, easily overshadowing my $7.8 million projection. This is the first 2025 title to exceed expectations.
The same cannot be said for Wolf Man. Blumhouse’s horror reboot received plenty of subpar critical notices and audiences turned away. While I had it pegged for 1st at $16.6 million, it was third with only $10.8 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was fourth with $8.6 million compared to my $6.6 million estimate for a five-week total of $216 million.
Last weekend’s champ Den of Thieves 2: Pantera fell to fifth with $6.5 million. The 56% drop was steeper than I figured as I had it at $8.2 million. The ten-day take is $26 million.
Brave the Dark marks the latest effort from Angel Studios. They hit it big in 2023 with Sound of Freedom and have delivered midsize performers in recent months with Bonhoeffer and Homestead. This 1980s set drama comes from director Damian Harris. He’s the eldest son of legendary actor Richard Harris and (fun fact!) helmed the 1991 Goldie Hawn thriller Deceived and 1995 Ellen Barkin/Laurence Fishburne noir flick Bad Company.
This is a family affair with brothers Jared and Jamie Harris in the cast alongside Nicholas Hamilton. Dark actually first saw light in the fall of 2023 at some film festivals before Angel nabbed distribution rights. The aforementioned Bonhoeffer earned $5.5 million for its start in November while Homestead took in $6 million. That makes mid single digits the safest bet.
Brave the Dark opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
Two weeks after Den of Thieves 2: Pantera started Lionsgate on a positive 2025 note after a disastrous 2024, the studio looks for Flight Risk to keep things looking up. Out January 24th, Mel Gibson directs the action thriller starring Mark Wahlberg, Topher Grace, and Michelle Dockery.
Originally slated for October of last year, this marks Gibson’s first behind the camera exercise since 2016’s Best Picture nominee Hacksaw Ridge. He recently costarred with Wahlberg in 2022’s largely forgotten Father Stu.
Competing for a male audience with the NFL playoffs could be a tall order (as well as the general January doldrums at multiplexes). Another hurdle is that audiences may be used to seeing Wahlberg in direct to streaming fare with Spenser Confidential, Infinite and The Union being recent examples in the genre.
My guess is this gets to low double digits and maybe into the teens.
Flight Risk opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
Blumhouse’s horror remake Wolf Man looks to dominate the box office charts this weekend while Keke Palmer and SZA headline the buddy comedy One of Them Days. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Sporting a meager budget of reportedly $7 million, Wolf Man from The Invisible Man director Leigh Whannell could see a gross close to $20 million (or at least low to mid teens in the worst case scenario). That should mean an easy perch at #1 under either scenario.
As for One of Them Days, it has a shot of exceeding my expectations. However, my mid to single digits take should mean a fourth or fifth place showing depending on the drops of holdovers.
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera was able to snag the top spot this past weekend (more on that below). It may slide to third with a mid 40s decline with Mufasa: The Lion King staying put in second if it drops in the low to mid 30s.
Here’s how I envision the high five shaking out:
1. Wolf Man
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $9.5 million
3. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
4. One of Them Days
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
5. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (January 10-12)
Gerard Butler scored bragging rights as Den of Thieves 2: Pantera managed first position with $15 million. That’s ahead of my $13.3 million forecast and right in line with the $15.2 million that its 2018 predecessor achieved for its start. This is a much needed boost for Lionsgate after a 2024 littered with bombs including Borderlands, The Crow, and Megalopolis.
Mufasa: The Lion King, after two weeks atop the box office mountain, was runner-up with $14.2 million. That’s on pace with my $14.4 million call as the Disney property’s fortunes rose to $189 million after four weeks.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was third with $11.3 million, on target with my $10.9 million prediction. The Sega threequel has amassed $204 million during its four-week run.
Nosferatu was fourth with $6.8 million, falling below my $8.6 million estimate. This horror remake stands at $81 million after three weeks.
Finally, Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $6.5 million (I said $6.3 million). The Mouse House sequel has grossed $434 million in seven weeks.
Sony Pictures is looking for One of Them Days to have several good days at the box office come January 17th. The buddy comedy stars Keke Palmer and singer SZA in her cinematic debut. Lawrence Lamont directs with a supporting cast including Vanessa Bell Calloway, Keyla Monterroso Meija, Maude Apatow, and Katt Williams.
The studio is looking for a significant African-American and female turnout, but I’m not sure the leads are enough of a draw to get this into double digits. I’ll project that the Friday to Sunday gross is in the mid to high single digits.
One of Them Days opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Universal and Blumhouse are looking for their Wolf Man reboot to tantalize audiences when it opens January 17th. Leigh Whannell, who wrote Saw and directed 2020’s successful The Invisible Man, helms with Christopher Abbott and Julia Garner headlining. Costars include Matilda Firth and Sam Jaeger.
A decade ago, this project was intended to be part of the Dark Universe franchise that started and ended with 2017’s The Mummy starring Tom Cruise. The box office for that feature stalled future installments and this pic has gone through various contributors before the final 2025 version.
Unlike The Mummy, there’s little question that this will be a profitable venture. The budget is reportedly $25 million. This could make close to $20 million out of the gate and maybe even top that figure under the best case scenario. Yet I’ll say mid to high teens is likelier.
Wolf Man opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million
Gerard Butler’s sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is not the only fresh wide release this weekend, but I believe it’s the sole newbie that will be in the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Thieves here:
The follow-up to the 2018 heist thriller could see a start in the low double digits to possibly low teens. That’s not exactly an impressive start, but it should be enough to manage the #2 spot just behind Mufasa in this sleepy January frame.
That’s based on the assumption that current champ Mufasa: The Lion King falls in the low to mid 40s with Sonic the Hedgehog 3 dwindling closer to 50%. Nosferatu may experience the smallest decline (perhaps mid 30s) with Moana 2 rounding out the top five.
As mentioned, there are other newcomers debuting or expanding wide. That includes the Telugu-language action thriller Game Changer, The Last Showgirl with Pamela Anderson, and monkey themed Robbie Williams biopic Better Man. I’m not envisioning any breaking into that high five so here’s how I see the chart playing out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
3. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (January 3-5)
The New Year rang in with holiday leftovers and Mufasa: The Lion King continuing its perch atop the chart. Disney’s product took in $23.4 million, a shade below my $25.1 million forecast. The three-week total stands at $168 million.
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 was runner-up with $21.3 million, on target with my $20.9 million call. The Sega property’s three-week gross is $187 million.
Nosferatu was third in its sophomore frame with $13 million, in line with my $13.4 million projection. The 40% drop for the horror title is commendable and it’s up to $69 million with over $100 million when counting worldwide earnings.
Animated sequel Moana 2 was fourth with $12.4 million (I said $13 million) for a six-week tally of $425 million.
Wicked was fifth and it dropped further in its seventh outing than I figured at $9.9 million compared to my $14.2 million estimate. Nevertheless the Golden Globe recipient for Cinematic & Box Office Achievement has amassed $450 million.
Finally, A Complete Unknown was sixth in weekend #2 with $8.1 million. I went a little higher at $9.3 million as the Bob Dylan biopic has made $41 million.
Lionsgate, who had a rough run in 2024 (The Crow, Megalopolis), hopes 2025 begins better with Den of Thieves: Pantera on January 10th. Christian Gudegast returns to the director’s seat for this follow-up to 2018’s action drama. Gerard Butler, O’Shea Jackson Jr., and Meadow Williams reprise their roles from seven years ago with Evin Ahmed and Salvatore Esposito joining the cast.
The original was reportedly shot for $30 million and it made half its budget back opening weekend with a $44 million eventual domestic gross and $80 million total globally. Whether that’s enough to warrant a sequel is a good question.
I think this might fall under the $15.3 million that its predecessor took in though the lack of competition could mean it over performs my estimate.
Den of Thieves: Pantera opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.
While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.
The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million
6. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (December 27-29)
In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.
Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.
Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.
Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.
The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.
Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.
Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.
In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.
Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.
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