Tag: Box Office

Out of the Furnace Box Office Prediction

Christian Bale headlines an all-star cast in the crime thriller Out of the Furnace from Crazy Heart director Scott Cooper. It is the only wide release coming out during the first weekend of December where moviegoers could still be preoccupied with leftovers such as The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Disney’s Frozen.

Beside the Dark Knight himself, Furnace costars Casey Affleck, Woody Harrelson, Zoe Saldana, Forest Whitaker, and Willem Dafoe. Early reviews have mostly been positive (it currently sits at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes). There were some insiders who mentioned this pic for possible awards consideration though that talk has mostly fallen along the wayside. The marketing campaign has been fairly robust, but one has to wonder if audiences will rush out to see it.

A similar genre pic, Killing Them Softly with Brad Pitt, opened during the same weekend last year to highly disappointing results with only $6.8 million for its debut. That film also had mostly solid notices from critics. I believe Furnace will perform a bit better though it’s a legitimate question in my mind whether it reaches double digits or not. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite get there.

Out of the Furnance opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

 

Box Office Predictions: Thanksgiving 2013

It’s going to be a busy Turkey Day weekend at the box office as six new titles find their way into the multiplex. Disney’s Frozen, the action pic Homefront with Jason Statham and James Franco, and the musical ensemble Black Nativity open wide while The Book Thief expands to around 1000 theaters and Spike Lee’s Oldboy and the Judi Dench drama Philomena play to around 500 screens. Whew.

You can my individual prediction posts on each new picture here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Typically, during Thanksgiving the leftovers have very small drops because audiences like to catch up during the holidays. The one exception should be The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. In its second weekend, the pic should easily lose more than half the crowd of its debut weekend. The last two Twilight flicks opened the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend and saw second week falls in the 70% range. I don’t have Games falling quite that far.

Since there are so many newbies this weekend, I’ll change my normal Top Five predictions to Top Ten. Here they are:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $56.8 million (representing a drop of 64%)

2. Frozen

Predicted Gross: $48.3 million ($69.1 million for five-day opening)

3. Black Nativity

Predicted Gross: $19.3 million ($26.8 million for five-day opening)

4. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 32%)

5. Homefront

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million ($12.8 million for five-day opening)

6. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 42%)

7. The Book Thief

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million ($7.2 million for five-day opening)

8. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 30%)

9. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (representing a drop of 12%)

10. Philomena

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million ($5.1 million for five-day opening)

This means I am predicting Oldboy opens outside of the top ten with a $2.4 million Friday-to-Sunday opening tally and $3.5 million from Wednesday-to-Sunday.

I’ll have final results Sunday on the blog… have Turkey Day friends!

Philomena Box Office Prediction

Last November, Dame Judi Dench was appearing as M for the last time in Skyfall, which turned out to be the biggest 007 pic of all time. A year later, Philomena may not be a massive box office juggernaut, but it is garnering solid reviews (90% on Rotten Tomatoes) and awards buzz.

The British drama, costarring Steve Coogan, expands to approximately 500 theaters after a successful limited roll out this past weekend. While the film itself is probably a long shot for a Best Picture nod, Dench’s chances of receiving her seventh Oscar nomination are high.

Philomena may present a welcome opportunity for adult audiences to catch something a little different over the Thanksgiving weekend and it should post fairly decent results in its expansion.

Philomena opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $5.1 million (Friday-to-Wednesday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For Black Nativity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For Homefront, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For Oldboy, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

Oldboy Box Office Prediction

Unless I’m really missing something here, Spike Lee’s Oldboy starring Josh Brolin and Samuel L. Jackson seems to be flying in way under the radar to an extent that I did not expect.

When this project was announced, this remake of a 2003 South Korean critically acclaimed cult favorite looked like it could be a high-profile fall release. However, Film District and Universal seem to have very little confidence in it. The marketing campaign has been muted and no mainstream reviews have been released at press time. If anything, its tepid marketing campaign reminds me of Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, another flick I thought would be more highly touted than it was. It ended up earning a paltry $7.8 million in its debut. Added to that, Oldboy is only being released on roughly 500 screens on Wednesday which will surely hinder its opening.

Add all that up and I’m not expecting a whole lot with Oldboy.

Oldboy opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $3.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Homefront Box Office Prediction

The omnipresent James Franco is back in theaters again over the Thanksgiving weekend with Homefront, in which he plays a meth dealer dueling with a DEA agent played by Jason Statham. The film costars Winona Ryder and Kate Bosworth. Franco has been a busy man in 2013 with Oz the Great and Powerful, Spring Breakers, and This is the End. This is likely to be his least talked about picture.

While TV ads have been showing frequently for Homefront, I don’t see this doing a whole lotta business over the holiday frame. Recent Statham flicks have been met with lukewarm openings: 2011’s Killer Elite at $9.3M, 2012’s Safe with $7.8M, and this year’s Parker with $7 million. The screenplay is actually written by Sylvester Stallone, who once envisioned this as a starring vehicle for him. Reviews have been mostly negative so far.

The Thanksgiving time frame may allow Homefront slightly higher numbers than the last couple of Statham pics. Not much higher, though.

Homefront opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $12.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Black Nativity Box Office Prediction

Two weekends ago, African American audiences catapulted The Best Man Holiday to an astonishing $30 million opening weekend. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, Fox Searchlight is hoping a similar result greets Black Nativity.

The musical drama features an all-star cast that includes Forest Whitaker, Jennifer Hudson, Angela Bassett, Tyrese Gibson, Mary J. Blige, and rapper Nas. The Christmas themed flick may well connect with its intended audience. While I don’t see it reaching Best Man Holiday numbers (even over the five-day Thanksgiving frame), I do see it posting a very solid opening that should make the studio quite happy.

Black Nativity opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $26.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on Disney’s Frozen, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/frozen-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For Philomena, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Frozen Box Office Prediction

My onslaught of Thanksgiving box office predictions which includes six films opening or expanding begins with Disney’s animated Frozen, loosely based on Hans Christian Andersen’s fairy tale The Snow Queen.

The story of princesses and reindeer and (yes) a snow queen is likely to capture the attention of family audiences over the long holiday weekend. Reviews have been strong and it currently sits at 91% on Rotten Tomatoes. Frozen will look to follow the same box office pattern as Tangled, which the studio opened over turkey weekend three years ago. That film captured $49.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday weekend and $68.7 million over the long Wednesday to Sunday frame.

It’s hard to imagine Frozen not having just about those same numbers this year. I don’t see it debuting much bigger than Tangled and don’t see it opening much smaller. Disney should be pleased with the results of their 53rd animated feature.

Frozen opening weekend prediction: $48.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $69.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Black Nativity prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/black-nativity-box-office-prediction/

For my Homefront prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/homefront-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Book Thief, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/the-book-thief-box-office-prediction/

For my Oldboy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/oldboy-box-office-prediction/

For my Philomena prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/24/philomena-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 22-24

The weekend before Thanksgiving brings us one of the year’s most anticipated titles, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which is primed for an explosive debut. The sequel will look to build upon the $152 million that its predecessor opened at in March 2012. My prediction puts it at #4 for all-time domestic openings. You can read my detailed post here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

I have #2 and #3 as other sequels. Thor: The Dark World is likely to lose over half its audience in the third weekend. The Best Man Holiday debuted well beyond expectations with $30 million. Conventional wisdom tells me it’s likely to lose over 50% in weekend #2, but considering its rare A+ Cinemascore grade, it may not fall that far. The two should post very close results fighting for the runner-up spot.

The weekend’s loser may well be Vince Vaughn’s Delivery Man, which is garnering mixed reviews and has been running a tepid marketing campaign. I expect a disappointing opening and you can read my detailed post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/

Rounding out the top five should be either holdovers Last Vegas or Free Birds, but I’ll give the edge to Vegas in weekend #4. And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Predicted Gross: $166.7 million

2. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. The Best Man Holiday

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Delivery Man

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 26%)

Check the blog’s Facebook page on Saturday for early results with final results on the blog Sunday!

Delivery Man Box Office Prediction

He’s had one pretty big box office disappointment earlier this year with The Internship and that trend may well continue for Vince Vaughn with Delivery Man.

The film is actually a scene-for-scene remake of a 2011 Canadian feature titled Starbuck and Vaughn was brought in to give the American version some star power. Vaughn plays a sperm donor who finds out he has fathered 533 children. Chris Pratt and Cobie Smulders costar.

Delivery Man sounds a bit gimmicky and audiences may treat this with ambivalence. Reviews so far have been mixed. There’s also the matter of another picture opening Friday that is likely to divert the attention of audiences: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The decision to open this against that might not have been a wise one.

If Delivery Man gets past $15 million, I’d be surprised. I think it’s more to reach the low end of double digits.

Delivery Man opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my prediction post on The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/the-hunger-games-catching-fire-box-office-prediction/

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire Box Office Prediction

In March of 2012, The Hunger Games opened to a massive $152.5 million domestic opening weekend and finished with a gargantuan $408M domestic haul. To say its sequel Catching Fire is eagerly awaited is quite the understatement.

Director Gary Ross is out and I Am Legend director Francis Lawrence is in. Of course, it’s a different Lawrence (Jennifer) and her costars Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Stanley Tucci, Donald Sutherland, Lenny Kravitz and newcomers Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Jeffrey Wright that audiences are eager to see. Catching Fire comes with a much bigger $140 million budget compared to the $78M price tag for the original.

Reviews suggest this adaptation of Suzanne Collins novel is very faithful and the film sits an impressive 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Just how big could this be? Well, big. The sequel is likely to open larger than its predecessor, which currently holds the #6 all-time highest domestic opening. There are some who believe it could debut above $175 million which would put it at #2 all-time, above this year’s $174M opening of Iron Man 3. I’m not going that high, but would certainly say it’s possible. I believe a debut in the mid to high 160’s is the most plausible scenario. My prediction would put The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at #4 all-time – just below the $169M haul of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 and above the $160M opening of The Dark Knight Rises.

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opening weekend prediction: $166.7 million

For my prediction on Delivery Man with Vince Vaughn, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/11/17/delivery-man-box-office-prediction/