Rule Breakers is the latest inspirational drama from Angel Studios which casts Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a teacher guiding Afghan women. Bill Guttentag directs with Ali Fazal, Fahim Fazli, and Nikohl Boosheri among the costars.
Shot for a reported $8 million, Rule hopes to break into the consciousness of the faith-based audience that its studio caters to. That probably means an opening weekend in the lower to mid single digits. Angel’s last three efforts were Bonhoeffer (which started with $5.5 million), Homestead ($6 million), and Brave the Dark with just $2.3 million.
I think this should go higher than Dark while not reaching the debuts of the other two.
Rule Breakers opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Bong Joon-ho’s follow-up to his 2019 Oscar juggernaut Parasite hits multiplexes via Mickey 17 on March 7th. Robert Pattinson plays multiple roles in the sci-fi satire which premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo costar.
Sporting the acclaimed auteur’s biggest budget, Mickey certainly arrives with higher expectations than he’s seen before. Most reviews are solid with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 75 on Metacritic. That said, it probably won’t be the awards player that Parasite was save for some tech races.
Originally slated for theaters in March 2024, some estimates have Mickey in the $25 million region. I’m not convinced it will do that fine. Had it arrived just a couple of years after Joon-ho’s predecessor, I might be projecting more. I’ll say higher teens with low 20s as the best case scenario.
Mickey 17 opening weekend prediction: $17.9 million
In what should be a quiet box office weekend, survival thriller Last Breath with Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu hopes to find an audience while Captain America: Brave New World seeks to three-peat. You can find my detailed prediction post on Breath here:
Despite a troubling 68% sophomore plummet, Captain America should manage a third weekend atop the charts due to lack of competition. It may, however, not even reach low teens this time around.
The best case scenario for Breath would be second place, but it could place anywhere from runner-up to fifth depending on drops of holdovers.
The Monkey, with a C+ Cinemascore grade, is likely to experience a heftier decline over family fare offerings Paddington in Peru and Dog Man (though it could remain in second).
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out in a cinematic frame where audiences might be more transfixed by the Oscars:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
2. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Last Breath
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
5. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Predictions (February 21-23)
As mentioned, the MCU’s 35th feature Captain America: Brave New World cratered in its second outing with a near 70% fall. It made $28.1 million, in line with my $29.6 million call, for a $141 million ten-day overall take.
Horror comedy The Monkey performed toward the lower end of its expected range at $14 million. I was more generous at $18.2 million. Look for it to fade quickly like Companion did.
Holdovers generally went under my forecasts with Paddington in Peru third at $6.5 million compared to my $8.9 million estimate. The two-week total is an underwhelming $25 million.
Dog Man was fourth with $5.8 million, under my $7.1 million prediction for $78 million in its four weeks of release.
Ne Zha 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it listed. The Chinese animated fantsy took in $3 million to bring its two-week tally to $14 million.
Heart Eyes was sixth with a ginormous 73% dip to $2.7 million in its third weekend for $26 million in the bank.
Finally, The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi was another snoozer for Lionsgate in 8th. It made $2.3 million and I projected it at $3 million.
Based on a true story and a 2019 documentary of the same name, Focus Features hopes audiences take in Last Breath this Friday. The survival thriller about a deep sea rescue comes from Alex Parkinson (who made the doc) with a cast including Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu, Finn Cole, and Cliff Curtis.
Audience anticipation seems to be considerably under the surface. I don’t think this even gets to $5 million. My meager estimate should still be enough for a number 3 debut since this should be a quiet weekend at the box office.
Last Breath opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
The Monkey looks to swing a strong second place showing while The Unbreakable Boy hopes to break into the top five this weekend. Captain America: Brave New World should repeat in first. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Based on a Stephen King short story, The Monkey marks Osgood Perkins’s follow-up to last summer’s surprise hit Longlegs. I have this opening shy of $20 million which would put it in firmly in second.
Father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi seems like it’s getting dumped by distributor Lionsgate and my $3 million estimate puts it outside of the high 5.
Captain America: Brave New World performed in line with expectations over the Valentine’s/Presidents Day long weekend (more on that below). It also received the worst Cinemascore (B-) of any MCU title thus far. That could mean a decline in the mid 60s or even 70% (similar to the drop for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania) could be at hand.
Paddington in Peru and Dog Man should each dip a spot to 3rd and 4th with Heart Eyes rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I envision it playing out:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $29.6 million
2. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Heart Eyes
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (February 14-17)
Captain America: Brave New World was the 35th Marvel Cinematic Universe experience and it was the 35th to debut atop the charts. The Friday to Sunday traditional weekend gross was $89.8 million with $100 million when factoring in President’s Day. That’s not as commanding as plenty of other MCU fare, but it surpassed my respective $78.9 million and $90.7 million estimates. As mentioned, that troubling audience reaction should mean substantial drops ahead.
Paddington in Peru kicked off in second place with $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million for the four-day compared to my projections of $14.8 million and $17 million. The film is making the bulk of its bounty overseas though it could experience smallish declines in upcoming frames (its Cinemascore was an A).
Dog Man was third with $13.4 million (I said $14.1 million) as the animated tale brought its three-week total to $70 million.
The biggest surprise of the weekend was horror comedy Heart Eyes actually increasing its gross in weekend #2 with $10.8 million for fourth position. My radar was way off as I only had it pegged at $5.8 million. The overall tally stands at $22 million.
Chinese animated fantasy Ne Zha 2 was fifth with $8.3 million and I did not do a projection for it. That towers over its 2019 predecessor which premiered to just over one million.
Finally, Mufasa: The Lion King was sixth with $5.3 million (I said $5 million) for $241 million in its nine weeks.
Zachary Levi headlines the true life father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy on February 21st. Jon Gunn, known for helming faith-based pics like The Case for Christ and last year’s Ordinary Angels, directs. The supporting cast includes Meghann Fahy, Jacob Laval, Drew Powell, Gavin Warren, and Patricia Heaton.
Boy has been sitting on the Lionsgate shelf for some time as it wrapped production in late 2020. That studio has had a slew of financial disappointments in recent months. While Ordinary Angels (also from Lionsgate) managed $6.5 million for its start, it had solid word-of-mouth and was released on 2800 screens. Early reports have Boy only rolling out in approximately 1300 venues. That should limit its potential as evidenced by my estimate.
The Unbreakable Boy opening weekend prediction: $3 million
Neon looks for The Monkey to shine at the box office when it opens February 21st. Based on Stephen King’s 1980 short story, the horror flick is Osgood Perkins’ follow-up to his surprise hit Longlegs from last year. Theo James, Tatiana Maslany, Elijah Wood, Christian Convery, Colin O’Brien, Rohan Campbell, and Sarah Levy star.
Profitability shouldn’t be an issue considering the reported $10 million budget. Early reviews are at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic. In July of 2024, Longlegs kicked off to a robust $22 million on its way to a $74 million domestic haul.
There’s been lots of scary movies in recent weeks, but The Monkey could capitalize on its simple premise, decent buzz, and King/Perkins combo. It could get past what Longlegs accomplished though I’ll project under in the high teens or low 20s.
The Monkey opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million
For my The Unbreakable Boy prediction, click here:
For this upcoming Valentine’s/Presidents Day weekend, Captain America: Brave New World hopes for the love from MCU fans while Paddington in Peru looks for a commanding runner-up start. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Obviously America, with Anthony Mackie donning the shield in place of Chris Evans, will easily reach first. I don’t expect it to reach anywhere near the heights of other MCU predecessors including 2016’s Captain America: Civil War. A four-day gross around $90 million seems feasible.
Paddington in Peru has already done impressive business overseas. My Friday to Monday estimate puts it in the high teens. That’s in range with the 2015 original and stronger than the 2018 sequel.
It is common for holdovers to experience small declines during this February four-day frame. Sometimes there’s even increases. I anticipate current champ Dog Man to post similar grosses to its sophomore outing (more on that below) while Mufasa may also have a minor bump. Heart Eyes could see its second weekend fortunes fall in the 25% range.
And with that, here’s my outlook on the weekend ahead and keep in mind that my figures for returning titles are for Friday-Monday:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)
2. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)
3. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
4. Heart Eyes
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
5. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (February 7-9)
Multiplexes got defeated about as bad as the Kansas City Chiefs with the Super Bowl and a lack of enticing newcomers causing moviegoers to stay home. Dog Man from DreamWorks Animation remained in 1st with $13.8 million, but the 62% plummet was far more than I figured. I called it at $19.4 million and it’s made $54 million thus far.
Horror rom com Heart Eyes didn’t impress in 2nd with $8.3 million, below my $10.8 million take. Despite solid reviews, audiences didn’t bite.
Same goes for critically reviled action comedy Love Hurts with Ke Huy Quan. It stalled with $5.8 million compared to my $7.1 million forecast.
Mufasa: The Lion King was fourth with $4 million (I said $4.6 million) for an eight-week haul of $235 million.
Companion, another scary pic with impressive critical reaction, nevertheless nosedived 68% in its sophomore weekend for fifth. The $3 million gross was well under my $4.9 million prediction as its ten-day take is $15 million.
Finally, buddy comedy One of Them Days was sixth at $2.8 million. I was more generous at $4.4 million and the four-week total is $39 million.
After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.
Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.
Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.
Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)
For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:
Disney hopes that audiences will love Captain America: Brave New World enough to give it a commanding start during the long weekend beginning with Valentine’s Day and concluding on Presidents’ Day. The 35th feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe has Anthony Mackie, once the Falcon, donning the shield as the title character and replacing Chris Evans. Julius Onah directs with a supporting cast including Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Carl Lumbly, Xosha Roquemore, Jóhannes Haukur Jóhannesson, Giancarlo Esposito, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford. That last cast member takes over the role of Thaddeus Ross (now the President of the United States) played in earlier MCU entries by the late William Hurt.
The fifth feature in Phase Five of this massive franchise, World finds the MCU in a unique place. Last year’s Deadpool & Wolverine was a massive blockbuster that took in $1.3 billion worldwide. On the flip side, there’s been recent under performers such as Eternals, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, and The Marvels.
Earlier Captain America sagas with Evans were critically appreciated and made significant bucks. 2016’s Captain America: Civil War, the previous flick with the C.A. moniker, topped a billion globally. It didn’t hurt that it was essentially another Avengers tale. It made nearly $180 million on its opening weekend domestically.
Expectations are not as high nearly a decade later. The four-day tally should hover around $90 million. That’s where estimates are at and I don’t really see this significantly outdoing the anticipated range. In fact, falling slightly under wouldn’t shock me.
Captain America: Brave New World opening weekend prediction: $78.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $90.7 million (Friday to Monday)
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