Taken from his real life experiences fighting in the Iraq War, Ray Mendoza co-directs Warfare which releases April 11th. The other filmmaker behind the camera is Alex Garland in his follow-up to Civil War. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays Mendoza with a supporting cast including Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, and Charles Melton.
The A24 release (which also distributed Civil War) is one of a handful of pics next weekend looking to gross around $10 million, give or take. Reviews for Warfare are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Yet I don’t see this approaching the $25 million that Civil over-indexed at during the same April frame last year.
A higher than expected veteran/action fans turnout could push this up beyond my forecast, but I’ll say this falls under $10 million.
Episodes 6-8 of the faith-based show’s 5th season with a devoted following hits multiplexes on April 11th in The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. With Jonathan Roumie starring as Jesus, other cast members include Shahar Isaac, Elizabeth Tabish, Paras Patel, and Noah James.
This is the third frame in a row where installments have played theatrically. Part 1 scored a better than anticipated premiere of nearly $12 million. Part 2‘s grosses aren’t finalized but appear to be coming in with approximately $7 million.
In this pre-Easter frame, Part 3 sees direct competition via animated The King of Kings. Some viewers may also wait to watch eps 6-8 when the entire season is packaged together over the holiday. Nevertheless I’ll say it falls slightly under its predecessor.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
Blogger’s Note (04/07): Deadline reports that Kings is already seeing nearly $8 million in pre-sales four days before its debut. Angel Studios is employing a marketing strategy which includes kids receiving a free ticket to screenings with the family. This is causing me to raise my projection from $11.4 million to a sizzling $21.4 million.
Angel Studios, which had an unexpectedly massive hit with Sound of Freedom in 2023, has witnessed mixed returns for subsequent releases. The faith-based outlet goes the animation route on April 11th via The King of Kings. Based on a children’s book, it involves Charles Dickens (voiced by Kenneth Branagh) narrating the life of Jesus (Oscar Isaac). Other performers behind the mic include Uma Thurman, Mark Hamill, Roman Griffin Davis, Forest Whitaker, and Ben Kingsley.
Will Christians and kiddos turn out? Timed for a pre-Easter premiere, it does have direct competition from The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3, the popular show which will broadcast the final 3 episodes for season 5. There’s also the sophomore frame for A Minecraft Movie which caters to family crowds.
Like the other new releases next weekend, I think this will hover around $10 million. I’ll project it gets a little over that and it might have a heavenly hold over the holiday in its second go-round.
The King of Kings opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
Drop drops on April 11th and it’s a thriller from Christopher Landon, known best for making horror pics Happy Death Day and Freaky. Meghann Fahy and Brandon Sklenar headline with Violett Beane, Jacob Robinson, and Reed Diamond providing support.
First screened at South by Southwest last month, early reviews are solid with 89% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Despite the encouraging notices, I suspect this might generate more business if it fell in the director’s scary movie oeuvre. Like other releases out next weekend, this may fall a bit under $10 million or perhaps a tad over. I’m going with the under on this one.
Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.
Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.
The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.
The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.
As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.
Here’s how I have the chart playing out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (March 28-30)
In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.
Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.
The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.
The numbers aren’t final yet, but the first two episodes of The Chosen‘s fifth season (subtitled Last Supper) appear poised to place third at the box office this weekend with around $12 million. That’s a better than anticipated gross.
A week after those initial shows, episodes 3-5 will be in multiplexes on April 4th. Jonathan Roumie, Shahar Isaac, Elizabeth Tabish, Paras Patel, and Noah James are among cast members. It stands to reason that the theatrical outputs should experience diminishing returns. Episodes 6-8 will roll out on April 11th. I don’t anticipate this middle batch to top $10 million, but it should at least bring in half the cash that preceded it.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.
The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.
Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.
A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million
For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:
A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.
That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Death of a Unicorn
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. The Woman in the Yard
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (March 21-23)
Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…
They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.
As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.
Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.
Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.
Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.
Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 brings the first two episodes of the faith-based TV show to the big screen with Dallas Jenkins directing. The cast includes Jonathan Roumie as Jesus and Elizabeth Tabish as Mary Magdalene with Shahar Isaac, Paras Patel, and Noah James in support.
Back in November of 2022, the starting shows for season 3 took in an unexpectedly robust $8.7 million at multiplexes in its first weekend. For season 4 in February of 2024, the debut two installments brought in $7.3 million. I would estimate that returns for season 5 will slightly diminish in the mid single digits.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 