Nearly three years ago, comedian Amy Schumer broke through on the big screen in a major way with Trainwreck. Last summer, she hit a bit of a sophomore slump with Snatched. Will the third time be a charm or a disappointment with next weekend’s I Feel Pretty?
Schumer stars as an ordinary gal who hits her head and wakes up thinking she’s attained supermodel looks. The pic comes from directors Abby Kohn and Mark Silverstein, making their directorial debut after writing features including Never Been Kissed, The Vow, and How to Be Single. Costars include Michelle Williams, Emily Ratajkowski, Rory Scovel, Aidy Bryant, Busy Philips, and real supermodels Naomi Campbell and Lauren Hutton.
As mentioned, Schumer’s Trainwreck debuted in the summer of 2015 to $30 million and an eventual $110 million domestic gross. Two years later, her collaboration with Goldie Hawn, Snatched, grabbed a lesser $19 million out of the gate and then petered out with just $45 million overall.
I Feel Pretty was originally scheduled to open in June of this year before being pushed up to April 27. It was recently moved up a week due to The Avengers staking claim on that release date. Reviews are not out yet and that could both help or hinder its prospects. For instance, Blockers managed to premiere to over $20 million just last weekend and the positive word-of-mouth helped. Snatched, on the other hand, probably wasn’t assisted by its mediocre reaction.
I’ll say Pretty doesn’t reach the $20 million mark and its prospects are more likely in the mid to high teens teens range.
I Feel Pretty opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
Dwayne Johnson and Blumhouse Productions are hoping that Friday the 13th is a lucky opening day for them as Rampage and Truth or Dare debut this weekend. The former teams Johnson in an adventure with a host of CG animals and the latter is the latest from the studio that has seen a number of low-budget horror hits. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
The battle for #1 got a bit more interesting this weekend due to the incredible debut of A Quiet Place. If Rampage were to not meet expectations (and I have it meeting them), it could create a close race between the two. That said, my mid 30s projection for The Rock and the giant gorillas and wolves puts it in first with Quiet not too far behind.
Underestimating Blumhouse is usually not a wise course of action and I have Truth or Dare in third (even with the considerable competition of A Quiet Place‘s sophomore frame). That means Ready Player One and Blockers (which opened very well itself over the weekend) should be awfully close in the race for fourth. I give Player the slight edge.
There’s also the nationwide expansion of Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs, which has been performing splendidly in limited release. I don’t have a theater count for it yet, but I don’t see it reaching the top 5. If it hits around 1500 theaters, I would probably say it gets around $7.5 million to $8 million. We also have the animated Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero and tennis drama Borg vs. McEnroe apparently both opening in wide (or wide-ish) release. Once again, I’ve yet to witness a screen count and there’s really no chance either of them sniff the top 5 anyway.
And with that, my projections for the weekend:
1. Rampage
Predicted Gross: $36.6 million
2. A Quiet Place
Predicted Gross: $31.8 million
3. Truth or Dare
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
4. Ready Player One
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
5. Blockers
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
Box Office Results (April 6-8)
As mentioned, it was a loud and massive opening for John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place as the critically acclaimed horror pic took in $50.2 million (way beyond my $31.2 million estimate). That’s the second largest opening of 2018 behind Black Panther as it nearly tripled its meager $17 million budget in just three days. With great word-of-mouth, expect it to play well over the coming weekends.
Pretty much everything made more than my predictions in this first full April weekend. Ready Player One held solidly in weekend #2 with $24.6 million (ahead of my $21.8 million prediction) for $96 million overall.
Well reviewed comedy Blockers had a sturdy debut in third with $20.5 million, besting my $15.2 million projection. Look for the John Cena/Leslie Mann laugh fest to experience minimal declines in coming weekends, similar to what Game Night recently accomplished.
Black Panther took in $8.7 million for fourth (topping my take of $7.2 million) and it once again made some box office history. The Marvel behemoth became the third largest domestic grosser of all time (surpassing Titanic). It will likely stay at that spot behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. The current gross is $665 million.
Acrimony was fifth with $8.3 million (I said $6.5 million). Its two-week tally is $31 million.
Chappaquiddick didn’t make the top 5, but it did considerably better than what I figured. The Kennedy drama was 7th with $5.7 million. I was much lower at $2.3 million.
The inspirational sports drama The Miracle Season was 11th with $3.9 million, serving up close to my $3.8 million prediction.
Blumhouse Productions and Universal Pictures are hopeful horror fans will be game for TruthorDare next weekend. Debuting on Friday the 13th, the film puts a scary spin on the time honored contest that we all familiarized ourselves with in our teens. That’s the target audience that it wishes to reach. Jeff Wadlow, who directed Kick–Ass2, is behind the camera with a cast including Lucy Hale, Tyler Posey, Violett Beane, Hayden Szeto, and Landon Liboiron.
Originally scheduled to premiere on April 27, the pic wisely moved off that weekend when Iron Man, Black Panther, and other Avengers claimed it. However, the current release date poses its own problems as fellow genre title AQuietPlace will be in its sophomore frame and likely still making noise.
That said, Blumhouse has a knack for turning low-budget fright fests into hits. They’ve just come off a banner 2017 that included Split, GetOut, and HappyDeathDay. I don’t, however, feel TruthorDare will manage that trio’s grosses. I’ll estimate a debut in the mid teens range.
TruthorDare opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
Pairing Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson with a bunch of CG animals in an adventure flick? If that sounds like a recipe for box office success, that’s because Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle became Sony’s biggest hit at the end of 2017. And next weekend’s Rampage (while it won’t approach the numbers of that franchise follow-up) looks poised to bring in generous earnings.
The Warner Bros release is based loosely on the 1980s video game. It marks Johnson’s third collaboration with director Brad Peyton following Journey: The Mysterious Island and San Andreas. Both of those titles managed to top the century mark ($103 million and $155 million respectively) and this should do the same. Costars include Naomie Harris, Malin Ackerman, Joe Manganiello, Jake Lacy, and Jeffrey Dean Morgan. Perhaps more importantly, other costars are giant gorillas, wolf’s, and alligators.
The question is whether Rampage falls more in line with $27 million debut of Journey 2 or the $54 million accomplished by Andreas. The former seems a bit low to me while the latter is high. I’ll project a mid to possibly high 30s opening is more the ticket.
A quartet of newcomers roll into the marketplace this weekend looking to make some noise at the box office. We have the critically acclaimed horror pic A Quiet Place, critically acclaimed raunchy comedy Blockers, true-life sports drama The Miracle Season, and true-life political drama Chappaquiddick. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
A Quiet Place seems primed for a healthy debut and my plus $30 million estimate places it firmly in first place. Blockers certainly has breakout potential with its positive word-of-mouth and it could manage to climb higher than my low to mid teens projection. That would put it in third place behind the second weekend of Ready Player One, which I’m thinking will lose close to half its audience in its sophomore frame.
As for The Miracle Season and Chappaquiddick, my respective estimates of $3.8 million and $2.3 million put both of them outside the top 5.
Acrimony (which was 2nd over the Easter holiday) is likely to suffer a hefty decline in weekend #2 and that could leave it battling Black Panther for the five-spot. I’ll give Marvel’s superhero the edge. In fact, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that I Could Only Imagine could place fifth, pushing Acrimony to sixth.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. A Quiet Place
Predicted Gross: $31.2 million
2. Ready Player One
Predicted Gross: $21.8 million
3. Blockers
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
5. Acrimony
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Results (March 30-April 1)
Ready Player One easily ruled the charts over Easter weekend. It met expectations and delivered Steven Spielberg his largest opener in a decade since 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (and fifth largest ever not adjusted for inflation). The sci-fi adventure grossed $41.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, topping my $36.7 million estimate and $53.7 million since its Wednesday evening roll out (just ahead of my $50.8 million projection).
The Tyler Perry directed psychological thriller Acrimony exceeded my expectations, opening in second with a solid $17.1 million compared to my $13.2 million projection. As mentioned, a large second weekend dip is probable.
Black Panther placed third with $11.4 million to bring its jaw dropping total to $650 million. My prediction? $11.4 million!!
Surprise hit I Can Only Imagine was fourth with $10.4 million, just under my $11.2 million prediction for $55 million overall.
Last week’s #1 Pacific Rim Uprising fell to fifth with a massive 67% drop and $9.3 million, under my $11.7 million estimate. The sequel has made $45 million in two weeks.
Finally, faith-based sequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness stumbled out of the gate with a meager $2.6 million debut in 12th place, just over half of my $5.1 million forecast.
Arriving in theaters a little later than anticipated, historical drama Chappaquiddick debuts next weekend. Directed by John Curran, the film recounts the 1969 car accident that killed Mary Jo Kopechne and Ted Kennedy’s role in it. Jason Clarke plays Kennedy with Kate Mara as Kopechne. Supporting players include Ed Helms, Bruce Dern, Jim Gaffigan, Taylor Nichols, and Clancy Brown.
The pic receives its first screening last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Reviews were mostly positive and it stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes. That said, reaction was muted enough that Entertainment Studios moved it from its December 2017 awards qualifying run to this April roll out.
Chappaquiddick likely faces a tough road ahead. Premiering on approximately 1500 screens, its only real hope to appeal to older moviegoers who recall the events from nearly a half century ago. I’ll project that only gets this to $2-$3 million.
Chappaquiddick opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million
Upstart studio LD Entertainment is hoping for a crowd next weekend when TheMiracleSeason debuts. The sports drama tells the true story of a high school volleyball team whose captain dies suddenly and the inspiring aftermath of that event. Oscar winners Helen Hunt and William Hurt star alongside Erin Moriarty and Danika Yorush. Sean McNamara directs.
Slated to open on approximately 1700 screens, Season is hoping its PG rating and subject matter appeals to a young female audience. I’m not confident it reaches the demographic it intends to serve. I’ll estimate a gross under $5 million.
TheMiracleSeason opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Like its direct competitor A Quiet Place that also opens next weekend, Blockers made quite an impression with journalists and festival goers when it debuted at South by Southwest earlier this month. The raunchy comedy about parents trying to prevent their daughters plan to lose their virginity on prom night marks the directorial debut of Kay Cannon, best known for penning the Pitch Perfect franchise. The cast includes John Cena, Leslie Mann, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Newton, Graham Phillips, and Hannibal Buress.
Its festival premiere caused some buzz and it now stands at 91% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The Universal release has now been pegged as a potential sleeper at the box office. Competition is light in the genre and the solid reviews should help. As I see it, the ceiling for Blockers is likely the $17 million achieved in February by Game Night, another comedy that received kudos from the critical community.
I’m not sure it will reach quite that high. I’ll project an opening in the low to mid teens and it could continue to play in subsequent weekends, just as Game Night has.
Blockers opening weekend prediction: $15.2 million
Next weekend, A Quiet Place looks to make a lot of noise at the box office and early indications are that it may well succeed. The horror pic comes from John Krasinski, best known to many as Jim from “The Office”. The director stars alongside his real life spouse Emily Blunt with Millicent Simmonds and Noah Jupe playing their children. The foursome play a family trying desperately to survive in a world terrorized by creatures that attack if you make a sound.
The Paramount release garnered significant buzz when it screened at the South by Southwest Festival earlier this year. Krasinski’s previous directorial outing, comedic drama 2016’s The Hollars, made little impression with moviegoers. Look for his career behind the camera to be on the upswing following this. Critical praise has been vocal and it’s currently at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The creepy and nearly silent trailers are effective and the marketplace seems primed for a hit in the genre.
Add all that up and I believe the opening for Quiet will be anything but. I could see this debuting between the $26 million achieved by 2016’s Don’t Breathe and the $33 million haul of last year’s Get Out.
A Quiet Place opening weekend prediction: $31.2 million
Three new films try to fill their box office Easter baskets with dollars this weekend as Steven Spielberg’s futuristic sci-fi adventure Ready Player One, Tyler Perry’s thriller Acrimony with Taraji P. Henson, and faith-based threequel God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness all open. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Ready Player should have no trouble being number one out of the gate. The big budget and well-reviewed pic opens wide on Thursday (a bit odd for a roll out), meaning it will have Wednesday night previews as well. I’ve got it slated for a mid 30s debut over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a $50 million haul when factoring in the extra day. I will note that my projection has steadily risen since last week and we’ll see if I revise it up again before Wednesday evening.
The battle for #2 could be more interesting. Similar genre themed entries as Acrimony have grossed anywhere between low teens and mid 20s. I’ve got Acrimony on the lower end of that spectrum and that should still give it the runner-up spot in my view.
That’s because I’m anticipating a hefty sophomore weekend drop for Pacific Rim Uprising, the current #1. Its 2013 predecessor suffered a 57% dip in its second frame and I expect this to follow suit.
Percentage drop-offs should be much smaller for both Black Panther and I Can Only Imagine. I’m anticipating a photo finish between numbers 3-5.
My $5.1 million estimate for God’s Not Dead leaves it well outside the top 5.
And with that, here’s my top five Easter predictions:
1. Ready Player One
Predicted Gross: $36.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $50.8 million (Thursday to Sunday)
2. Acrimony
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
3. Pacific Rim Uprising
Predicted Gross: $11.7 million
4. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. I Can Only Imagine
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
Box Office Results (March 23-25)
Pacific Rim Uprising nabbed the top spot over the weekend with $28.1 million, above my $23.4 million prediction. While my estimate was low, its debut was quite a bit less than the $37 million achieved by its 2013 Guillermo del Toro directed predecessor. Look for it to see a big dip this weekend.
After five weeks perched at #1, Black Panther finally fell to second with $17 million (I said $17.9 million). Marvel is surely celebrating, however, as Panther is now the highest grossing Marvel Cinematic Universe film of all time with a total of $631 million – surpassing the $623 million made by 2012’s The Avengers.
I Could Only Imagine continued its highly impressive run in third place with $13.6 million (I was close at $13 million) to bring its two-week tally to $38 million. I look for it to experience a small decline over the Easter holiday.
Animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes had trouble detecting a solid family audience, opening in 4th place with a weak $10.6 million compared my $13.7 million projection. The seven-year gap between its predecessor Gnomeo and Juliet and this probably didn’t help.
Tomb Raider rounded out the top five in its disappointing run with $10.1 million (I was a touch higher at $11.2 million) for a ten-day tally of just $41 million.
Biblical drama Paul, Apostle of Christ failed to reach its intended audience in an 8th place opening at $5.1 million, on pace with my $5.5 million prediction.
YA romance Midnight Sun had a lackluster start with $4.1 million in 10th place, on target with my $4 million take.
Finally, the Steven Soderbergh iPhone shot thriller Unsane debuted in 11th place with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.9 million estimate.
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