Tag: Box Office

The Girl in the Spider’s Web Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/08/18): And another revision down to $9.4 million

Blogger’s Note (11/05/18): I am revising my estimate down to $11.7 million from original estimate of $13.7 million

The Girl in the Spider’s Web makes its way to stateside multiplexes next weekend nearly seven years after David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Mr. Fincher is nowhere to be found nor is Rooney Mara as computer hacking heroine Lisbeth. Claire Foy takes over the title role with Don’t Breathe maker Fede Alvarez directing. Costars include Sverrir Gudnason, LaKeith Stanfield, Sylvia Hoeks, Stephen Merchant, and Vicky Krieps.

It’s based on the wildly popular series of novels began by the late Stieg Larsson. This one in particular is adapted from the 2015 book by David Lagercrantz. The long layoff and different personnel involved could present some box office challenges. Reviews are mixed thus far as it stands at 73% on Rotten Tomatoes. There’s also direct competition in the form of Overlord, which will be vying for much of the same audience.

Comparing numbers with Tattoo is a tricky proposition. That eagerly awaited pic’s traditional opening weekend number was $12.7 million, but that’s with a huge asterisk. It opened Christmas weekend of 2011 when the holiday fell on a Sunday. Tattoo rolled out on Wednesday and Monday was counted as part of a long weekend. So its six-day earnings totaled out to $27.8 million. At the end of its run, it made $102 million.

Web is highly unlikely to approach those earnings. While it certainly could technically match Tattoo‘s traditional Friday to Sunday debut, there will be none of that extra holiday dough. I actually think a fair comp is September’s Peppermint with Jennifer Garner at $13.4 million and that’s right in the range of where I have Spider landing.

The Girl in the Spider’s Web opening weekend prediction: $9.4 million

For my The Grinch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-grinch-box-office-prediction/

For my Overlord prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/overlord-box-office-prediction/

The Grinch Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note: on the eve of its premiere, I’m giving this a bump from $56.4 million to $63.4 million

Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch looks to be a profitable one when it hits theaters next weekend. The animated take on the Dr. Seuss classic features the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch as the grumpy Christmas hating character. Other voice over work is provided by Cameron Seely, Rashida Jones, Kenan Thompson, Angela Lansbury, and Pharrell Williams. Scott Mosier and Yarrow Cheney (who co-directed Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets) are the filmmakers.

In 2000, the live-action version of this tale with Jim Carrey was a massive smash for Universal (Illumination’s parent company). There has been plenty of family pics over the last couple of months and The Grinch will get plenty more competition in following weekends. Both Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and Ralph Breaks the Internet are on deck.

That said, Illumination has had an impressive track record during this decade with the Despicable Me/Minions franchise and Pets. This is their first foray into the month of November, but plenty of other studios have planted their animated flag into the same time frame. In 2012, Wreck-It Ralph took in $49 million for its start. Two years later, Big Hero 6 made $56 million. In 2015, The Peanuts Movie started with $44 million and Trolls premiered to $46 million a year later. Yet the best comp could end up being 2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which bowed to $55 million. I’ll put it just over that as this Grinch looks to leg out well throughout the holiday season.

The Grinch opening weekend prediction: $63.4 million

For my The Girl in the Spider’s Web prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/the-girl-in-the-spiders-web-box-office-prediction/

For my Overlord prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/30/overlord-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 2-4

Blogger’s Note (10/30/18): My estimate for Bohemian Rhapsody has increased from $31.8M to $41.8M

A flurry of box office activity greets November as three new releases are unveiled. We have the Queen musical extravaganza Bohemian Rhapsody, Disney’s fantasy adventure The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, and Tyler Perry directed Tiffany Haddish comedy Nobody’s Fool. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/23/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/the-nutcracker-and-the-four-realms-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/nobodys-fool-box-office-prediction/

Rhapsody appears poised to, ahem, be the champion. How much it earns is very much in question. Forecasts have it anywhere between $25-$35 million. Reviews have been mixed, but the band’s fan base and rocking trailers have the potential to make the point moot. The film has the potential to over perform ($40 million is in the cards), but I’m estimating it ends up falling in the middle of current projections. **Note updated above.

As for The Nutcracker, it’s risky to underestimate the marketing power of the Mouse Factory. That said, buzz for this seems curiously muted. While it should have no problem nabbing the runner-up spot, I believe it will do so with less than $20 million.

Tiffany Haddish has had a pair of hits with Girls Trip last summer and Night School just a month ago. The latter had the benefit of featuring Kevin Hart. My prediction for Fool gives it about half of what School made out of the gate. That could put it in a battle for third place with the third weekend of current champ Halloween, with A Star Is Born rounding out the top five.

And with that, my top 5 take on as November comes in:

1. Bohemian Rhapsody

Predicted Gross: $41.8 million

2. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

3. Nobody’s Fool

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

4. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million

5. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

Box Office Results (October 26-28)

As expected, Halloween easily topped the charts for the second weekend in a row with $31.4 million, a bit below my $35.4 million estimate. The latest pairing of Michael Myers and Laurie Strode has taken in $126 million. That already gives it the all-time franchise earner by far (the previous record was 2007’s remake at $58 million).

For the fourth weekend in a row, A Star Is Born held the #2 spot with $14 million, a tad higher than my take of $13.3 million. It’s up to $148 million with $200 million in its sights.

Venom was third with $10.6 million (I was right there at $10.5 million) for an overall tally of $187 million.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.9 million) for $38 million thus far.

None of the newcomers performed well. Hunter Killer managed just a fifth place showing with $6.6 million, not matching my $8.2 million prediction.

Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanded nationally with middling results in 10th with $2.9 million (I said $3.6 million).

In 12th place was Johnny English Strikes Back with $1.6 million compared to my $1.3 million projection. Faith-based drama Indivisible was 13th with $1.5 million (I said $1 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Nobody’s Fool Box Office Prediction

It’s not a remake of the Paul Newman/Bruce Willis dramedy from almost a quarter century ago, but Nobody’s Fool is in theaters next weekend with some other familiar names. The comedy casts Tiffany Haddish as a recently released prisoner with some unique dating issues. Tika Sumpter, Omari Hardwick, and Whoopi Goldberg costar.

Haddish, of course, broke out on the big screen in a major way last year with her acclaimed supporting role in Girls Trip. Just last month, she had another solid earner alongside Kevin Hart in Night School. This will be the biggest test so far of her newfound star power. It doesn’t hurt that her director is another name audiences know well – Tyler Perry.

In recent years, Perry’s non-Madea features often still manage opening weekends in the mid teens to low 20s. His spring thriller Acrimony took in $17.1 million for its start. His low mark came in 2014 with The Single Moms Club with just $8 million.

My feeling is that Haddish’s involvement should cause this to hit low to mid teens. I do wonder if its numbers could dwindle a bit since many moviegoers just saw her in Night School. For that reason, I’ll go on the lower scale of that range.

Nobody’s Fool opening weekend prediction: $14.5 million

For my Bohemian Rhapsody prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/23/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-prediction/

For my The Nutcracker and the Four Realms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/the-nutcracker-and-the-four-realms-box-office-prediction/

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms Box Office Prediction

Disney is hoping for a sizable family and female audience next weekend when The Nutcracker and the Four Realms dances into theaters. The fantasy adventure is based on both the 1816 E.T.A. Hoffmann story “The Nutcracker and the Mouse King” and Tchaikovsky’s ballet with a cast including Keira Knightley, Mackenzie Foy, Eugenio Derbez, Matthew MacFadyen, Misty Copeland, Helen Mirren, and Morgan Freeman. Realms shares directing credit between Lasse Hallstrom (who shot most of it) and Joe Johnston (who came in for late re-shoots). In a strange twist of irony, the pic’s directorial drama is shared by Bohemian Rhapsody, which opens on the same day.

Unlike many Mouse Factory properties, The Nutcracker is a big question mark as to its box office viability. Buzz for this doesn’t seem on the level with many of their other productions. While Disney has been churning out one blockbuster after another, we have seen both A Wrinkle in Time and Christopher Robin come in with less than anticipated opening weekends. Both of those features struggled to eventually reach the $100 million mark. While Realms won’t have much family competition its first weekend out, that will change quickly as Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Ralph Breaks the Internet all debut shortly afterwards.

I believe this could struggle to join the century club like Wrinkle and Robin. It appears poised to come in second to the aforementioned Rhapsody. That said, I don’t want to underestimate the studio’s marketing prowess too much. Yet my gut says a gross in the $20 million range is where this starts and word-of-mouth will decide the rest.

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million

For my Bohemian Rhapsody prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/23/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-prediction/

For my Nobody’s Fool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/nobodys-fool-box-office-prediction/

Bohemian Rhapsody Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/30/18): My estimate has been bumped from $31.8M to $41.8M

In the United States, famed British band Queen had two #1 hits with “Another One Bites The Dust” and “Crazy Little Thing Called Love”. Next weekend, a biopic of its legendary lead singer Freddie Mercury is likely to top box office charts when Bohemian Rhapsody debuts. Named after one of their signature tunes (used memorably in 1992’s Wayne’s World), Rami Malek stars as Mercury. The supporting cast includes Lucy Boynton, Ben Hardy, Gwilym Lee, Joseph Mazzello, and Wayne Campbell himself – Mike Myers. The film shares credit for its directors, as original filmmaker Bryan Singer was replaced well into the shooting schedule with Dexter Fletcher. That move attracted plenty of publicity.

With its well-received and rocking trailers, Rhapsody appears poised to knock off Michael Myers from #1 when it opens. It certainly has breakout potential due to familiarity with the band, but it could also leg out well if it achieves positive audience word-of-mouth. Reviews will be out shortly, but early buzz suggests the picture is a bit of a mixed bag while Malek’s portrayal of Mercury could generate Oscar attention.

I’ll say this starts its cinematic journey in the high 30s to low 40s range.

Bohemian Rhapsody opening weekend prediction: $41.8M million

For my The Nutcracker and the Four Realms prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/the-nutcracker-and-the-four-realms-box-office-prediction/

For my Nobody’s Fool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/24/nobodys-fool-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 26-28

Blogger’s Note (10/25/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my Hunter Killer estimate from $10.2 million to $8.2 million

Jamie Lee Curtis and her long running nemesis Michael Myers should have no trouble topping the box office charts once again as a trio of newcomers enter the marketplace. They are the Gerard Butler action thriller Hunter Killer, Pure Flix drama Indivisible, and Rowan Atkinson comedy sequel Johnny English Strikes Again. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on them here:

Hunter Killer Box Office Prediction

Indivisible Box Office Prediction

Johnny English Strikes Again Box Office Prediction

Let’s deal with the low hanging fruit first. I don’t expect Indivisible or English to come anywhere near the top 5 with respective estimates of $1 million and $1.3 million.

We also have Jonah Hill’s directorial debut Mid90s expanding into wide release after a four screen engagement this past weekend. A theater count will be key here, but if it gets 1000 screens I’ll say it hits around $3.6 million (this could rise or fall depending on volume).

Hunter Killer is a trickier proposition. It doesn’t seem to be generating much buzz, but recent Butler pics such as Geostorm and Den of Thieves have both managed to go slightly above projections. It’s tempting to say Killer won’t do double digits, but I’m putting it just over that for what would be a fourth place showing (though it could go higher).

Speaking of killers, Michael Myers and his Halloween sequel slashed its way to the second largest October opening of all time (behind Venom) and second highest horror premiere ever (behind It). I’ll say it dips around 53% for the weekend.

A Star Is Born and Venom seem poised to keep their 2-3 positions with Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween rounding out the top five.

And with that, the top 5 estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Halloween

Predicted Gross: $35.4 million

2. A Star Is Born

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

3. Venom

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Hunter Killer

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (October 19-21)

As mentioned, Halloween achieved near record-setting status this weekend with a fantastic $76.2 million start, right in line with my $75.4 million prediction. It easily soared above the previous franchise record with $50 million to spare. That mark was held by Rob Zombie’s 2007 remake at $26 million.

A Star Is Born kept the runner-up spot for the third weekend with $19 million (I said $19.2 million) to bring its earnings to $126 million.

After two weeks on top, Venom dipped to third place with $18 million (I was a tad lower at $16.9 million) for a three-week tally of $171 million.

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween was fourth with $9.7 million (I said $9.4 million) for a two-week gross of $28 million.

First Man continued its disappointing returns in fifth with $8.3 million – under my $10 million take. In two weeks, it’s earned an unimpressive $29 million.

Critically acclaimed The Hate U Give expanded wide with a solid $7.6 million for sixth place, getting past my $6.7 million estimate.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Indivisible Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/22/18): Hours after publication of this post, a theater count of approximately 830 screens was revealed. That means a revision down from $1.7 million to just $1 million

The latest Pure Flix drama Indivisible hits theaters this weekend and the faith-based pic is likely to follow in the footsteps of the studio’s most recent output. It’s the true story of an Army chaplain stationed in Iraq. David G. Evans directs with a cast including Justin Bruening, Sarah Drew, Jason Winston George, Madeline Carroll, and Michael O’Neill. I’m not sure how much of a coincidence it is, but many of the actors here have appeared on the long-running ABC hit “Grey’s Anatomy”.

We don’t have a theater count yet on Indivisible and that will be a determining factor in my prediction. However, looking at recent Pure Flix material, 1300-1600 screens is probable. That would fall in line with four of their releases in the past year: Same Kind of Different as Me, Samson, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness, and last month’s Unbroken: Path to Redemption. Between those four pictures, their opening weekend grosses ranged between a consistent $1.9-$2.6 million. If this were to debut with less screens that, my forecast will be revised down.

I see no major reason to alter the formula much here. I’ll go on the lower end of that small spectrum since it’s not a sequel like God’s Not Dead and Unbroken. 

Indivisible opening weekend prediction: $1 million

For my Hunter Killer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/16/hunter-killer-box-office-prediction/

For my Johnny English Strikes Again prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/17/johnny-english-strikes-again-box-office-prediction/

Johnny English Strikes Again Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/18): Reports have come out that this is only getting 500 screens next weekend. Therefore I am revising my estimate down from $2.7 million to just $1.3 million.

Rowan Atkinson’s bumbling spy is back on-screen next weekend when Johnny English Strikes Again hits theaters. This is the third entry in a franchise that began 15 years ago and saw a 2011 follow-up experience dwindling returns compared to the original. David Kerr directs with a supporting cast that includes Olga Kurylenko, Ben Miller, Jake Lacy, and Emma Thompson.

In the summer of 2003, Johnny English opened to $9.1 and a $28 million overall domestic gross. Eight years later, Johnny English Reborn managed just $3.8 million out of the gate and $8.3 million overall. The sequel’s total stateside earnings is under the opening gross of its predecessor. It is worth noting that these English sagas perform far better overseas, where each made $160 million overall.

I expect the lackluster returns to continue here for part 3, while it should continue more robust earnings in other parts of the globe. I’ll say Strikes Again strikes out here and doesn’t even match the unimpressive numbers of Reborn.

Johnny English Strikes Again opening weekend prediction: $1.3 million

For my Hunter Killer prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/16/hunter-killer-box-office-prediction/

For my Indivisible prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/22/indivisible-box-office-prediction/

Hunter Killer Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (10/25/18): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my estimate down from $10.2 million to $8.2 million

Gerard Butler headlines the action thriller Hunter Killer next weekend alongside Gary Oldman, Common, Linda Cardellini, and Toby Stephens. The submarine set pic comes out in the Halloween frame – which is typically a slow one at the box office. It will, at best, come in second to sophomore weekend for Halloween.

While there doesn’t seem to be much buzz for it, Butler has seen his recent efforts make a little more than anticipated. This includes Den of Thieves from earlier this year, which took in over $15 million. Even last year’s costly flop Geostorm still managed to make nearly $14 million.

I don’t see that kind of performance here, but I do think Killer could top double digits. On the other hand, it could debut on pace with something like Operation Finale from August. That action thriller didn’t even make $8 million over the long Labor Day frame.

This could be a bit high, but I’ve learned to spot Butler a couple million lately. I’ll say a gross between $10-$11 million is the likely scenario.

Hunter Killer opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million

For my Johnny English Strikes Again prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/17/johnny-english-strikes-again-box-office-prediction/

For my Indivisible prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/10/22/indivisible-box-office-prediction/