Tag: Box Office Results

June 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Ballerina, a spinoff of the John Wick franchise, hopes to step into the #1 spot this weekend and Wes Anderson’s latest comedy The Phoenician Scheme expands nationwide. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Ballerina Box Office Prediction
The Phoenician Scheme Box Office Prediction

Ana de Armas headlines Ballerina (full title: From the World of John Wick: Ballerina) with series regulars appearing including Keanu Reeves. While I don’t have this approaching the heights of the previous two Wick installments, my mid 30s projection should be enough to top the charts.

As for Phoenician, it had an impressive per screen average in six venues this past frame. My high single digits estimate as it increases to around 1500 locations should mean fourth or fifth place with it performing in line with Anderson predecessor Asteroid City.

Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, the 1-2 finishers for the past two weekends, should each drop a spot with percentage dips in the mid 40s. I expect Karate Kid: Legends to experience a heftier decline in the mid to high 50s during its sophomore outing.

Here’s how I have the top five playing out:

1. Ballerina

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million

2. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $31.9 million

3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $15 million

4. The Phoenician Scheme

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. Karate Kid: Legends

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney’s Lilo & Stitch continued to reign supreme with $61.8 million, a bit under my $66.4 million call. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature has collected $278 million in its ten days of release.

Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was runner-up with $27.2 million, on target with my $28.7 million forecast. Ethan Hunt’s final adventure stands at $122 million after two weeks in play.

Karate Kid: Legends debuted in third with $20.3 million which puts it in line with my $21.3 million prediction. The legacy sequel with Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan premiered on the lower end of its anticipated range.

Final Destination Bloodlines was fourth with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8 million projection for a three-week tally of $111 million.

Finally, acclaimed A24 horror flick Bring Her Back brought in a so-so $7 million for fifth, not matching my $8.5 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 30-June 1 Box Office Predictions

Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction
Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.

Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.

I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.

Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $66.4 million

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $28.7 million

3. Karate Kid: Legends

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

4. Bring Her Back

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (May 23-26)

The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.

While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.

Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.

Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.

Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.

The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.

Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.

Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 23-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.

Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:

Lilo & Stitch Box Office Prediction
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning Box Office Prediction
The Last Rodeo Box Office Prediction
Friendship Box Office Prediction

Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.

Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.

The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.

As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.

And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:

1. Lilo & Stitch

Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

3. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

4. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

5. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $14 million

6. The Last Rodeo

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)

7. Friendship

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)

8. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (May 16-18)

As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.

The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.

Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.

The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.

Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (05/14): Two days before its premiere, I am doing a significant upgrade on Final Destinaition from $35.2 million to $44.2 million

Final Destination Bloodlines looks to inject some life into multiplexes with the franchise returning after 14 dormant years. We also have music superstar Abel Tesfaye (better known as The Weeknd) headlining the musical thriller Hurry Up Tomorrow. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Final Destination Bloodlines Box Office Prediction
Hurry Up Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Bloodlines should be another winner for Warner Bros after the massive success of A Minecraft Movie and Sinners (the studio might account for 60 percent of the high 5 this weekend). I have the sixth entry in the series achieving the strongest start yet in the mid 30s.

As for Hurry Up Tomorrow (which also costars Jenna Ortega and Barry Keoghan), it’s tricky to figure how many of The Weeknd’s fans will turn out this week(e)nd. Buzz seems quiet and it could fall anywhere between fourth and sixth place.

The New Avengers (recently known as Thunderbolts*) should drop to the runner-up slot after two weeks on top. The MCU adventure may see a dip in the low to mid 40s. Sinners looks to place third while Minecraft and The Accountant 2 could duke it out for 4th (depending on where Tomorrow falls).

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Final Destination Bloodlines

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million

2. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

3. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

5. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Hurry Up Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

Box Office Results (May 9-11)

The New Avengers had a rather typical MCU slide at 56% with $32.3 million in its second outing. That’s on pace with my $33.8 million call. The decline is a bit more than Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings with 54% but not as steep as the 62% that befell Eternals.

Sinners held firm in second with $22.1 million, a tad shy of my $24 million prediction. Ryan Coogler’s latest has bitten off $215 million after four weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $7.6 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster stands at a mighty $408 million in its six weeks of play.

The Accountant 2 held better than I assumed in weekend #3 with $6.7 million compared to my $4.6 million estimate. Ben Affleck’s sequel is up to $51 million.

Finally, I didn’t do a projection for micro-budgeted slasher flick Clown in a Cornfield. Yet it managed to be fifth with $3.6 million on over 2000 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The movie formerly known as Thunderbolts* looks to rule the box office once again with Sinners firmly in the runner-up position in this second May frame. That’s because there’s no new wide releases to challenge them and the top five should look similar to the month’s first weekend.

The MCU’s 36th entry Thunderbolts* (we’ll get to that asterisk) opened similarly to 2021 franchise titles Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($75 million) and Eternals ($71 million). Shang dropped in the mid-50s in its sophomore outing while Eternals fell a steeper 62%. With solid word-of-mouth and scant competition, a low to mid 50s decline is where I see this ending up.

Sinners looks to continue its meager drops and should see mid-20s in its fourth go-round while A Minecraft Movie, The Accountant 2, and Until Dawn should all hold at 3-5.

Back to that asterisk. So… (spoiler alert?… but not really) Disney/Marvel revealed today that Thunderbolts* is actually titled The New Avengers and it is listed that way on official materials. This all makes sense after you’ve seen it. Therefore I will honor the studio’s wishes and call it that moving forward.

Here’s how I see the high 5 shaking out:

1. The New Avengers

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $24 million

3. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (May 2-4)

Thund…,errr, The New Avengers came in at the lower end of its anticipated range with $74.3 million, falling shy of my $79.3 million call. It’s not a bad result for the superhero tale, but it is several million short of what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February and nowhere near the earnings of previous sagas with the word Avengers in it.

Sinners hauled in another $33.1 million, in line with my $34 million forecast. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick has amassed $179 million in three weeks.

A Minecraft Movie was third with $13.7 million, slightly topping my $12.5 million projection. The Warner Bros smash is just under $400 million at $398 million after four weeks.

The Accountant 2 saw its numbers plummet 61% in weekend #2 with $9.4 million. That’s below my more generous $12.8 million prediction. The ten-day tally is $41 million.

Video game based horror pic Until Dawn rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I said $3.4 million) for $14 million in its two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 2-4 Box Office Predictions

The summer 2025 box office season gets underway with Marvel’s Thunderbolts*. The 36th franchise entry looks to make noise atop the charts and you peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Thunderbolts* Box Office Prediction

With solid early buzz, my high 70s projection gives it about $10 million less than what Captain America: Brave New World accomplished in February. The debut would put it in line with general expectations as it’ll hope to leg out impressively throughout May.

Sinners was #1 once again for a second frame following an astonishing hold (more on that below). The MCU competition should mean a heftier slide than the sophomore outing, but I still have it only easing around 25%. That would mean a third weekend north of $30 million.

Third place could be a close contest between holdovers The Accountant 2 and A Minecraft Movie. I have the former dropping close to 50% with Minecraft experiencing a mid 40s decline.

Fifth place should belong to Until Dawn with around a high 50s to 60% plummet (typical for the horror genre).

Here’s how I have that high five playing out:

1. Thunderbolts*

Predicted Gross: $79.3 million

2. Sinners

Predicted Gross: $34 million

3. The Accountant 2

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Until Dawn

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (April 25-27)

Multiplexes were packed as four features topped $20 million in sales with Sinners shocking prognosticators with a mere 5% drop. Ryan Coogler’s vampire flick with Michael B. Jordan sucked up another $45.7 million, blasting past my $33.1 million prediction. In ten days, the Oscar contender stands at $123 million with $300 million domestic potentially in its sights.

The rerelease of Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith for its 20th anniversary landed one of the best reissue premieres of all time with $25.4 million in a surprise second That edges past my $22.6 million call. The third feature (and best reviewed) of the second trilogy returned to theaters for a one-week engagement (that’s why you don’t see it reflected in my projections for next weekend). A nostalgia factor clearly helped Sith as it almost tripled what The Phantom Menace‘s rerelease in February 2024 earned for its start. The $25 million in extra coin for Sith pushed the total domestic haul to $405 million over two decades.

The highest grossing truly new film was The Accountant 2 as the Ben Affleck action sequel was third with $24.5 million. I was right on target at $24.3 million, but I thought it would be #2. Its opening gross is right in line with the 2016 original.

A Minecraft Movie was fourth in weekend #4 with $22.7 million (I said $21.4 million) as the Warner Bros video game adaptation has collected $379 million.

New horror pic Until Dawn (also based on a video game) rounded out the top five with $8 million. The unimpressive figure is on pace with my $7.8 million forecast.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 11-13 Box Office Predictions

After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

The King of Kings Box Office Prediction
The Amateur Box Office Prediction
Drop Box Office Prediction
Warfare Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 Box Office Prediction

Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.

A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.

After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $77.9 million

2. The King of Kings

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. The Amateur

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

4. Warfare

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Drop

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.

A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.

Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.

I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

April 4-6 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)

A Minecraft Movie starring Jason Momoa and Jack Black looks to dominate the charts while The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 hopes to capture a hefty portion of the audience that witnessed Part 1 this past weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Minecraft Movie Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

Minecraft, based on the best selling video game of all time, should outgross the rest of the top five combined. However, that’s with a caveat. My mid to high 50s estimate isn’t exactly a robust number for this IP and would be considered a slight disappointment.

The rest of the top 5 is a little tricky. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 encompasses episodes 3-5 of the popular faith-based TV show. Part 1 easily outpaced expectations (more on that below). The follow-up shows should see diminishing returns, but it could still be good enough for second or third place. According to the info I’ve seen, Part 1 should still be in multiplexes and it might remain in the top five.

As for holdovers, Jason Statham’s A Working Man clocked a surprising #1 start and it may lose around half its audience while Disney’s dud Snow White may lose slightly more.

Here’s how I have the chart playing out:

1. A Minecraft Movie

Predicted Gross: $92.5 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

4. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (March 28-30)

In an upset, A Working Man capitalized on the ho-hum Snow White reception and was first with $15.5 million. The action thriller rose above my $13.9 million prediction and is another decent hit for Mr. Statham.

Disney’s Snow White live-action retelling tumbled 66% to $14.3 million, below my $16.4 million projection. The ten-day take is $66 million as it tries to reach $100 million domestically.

The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1, as mentioned, easily rose above forecasts in third with $11.7 million. That soars past my $6.4 million call and is quite a heavenly result for the Fathom Events distributed property.

Horror flick The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler debuted in fourth with $9.3 million, surpassing my $6.7 million estimate. With a C- Cinemascore, the sophomore drop should be substantial. Lucky for it, the budget is reportedly a meager $12 million.

The biggest disappointment of the week besides Snow‘s fall was Death of a Unicorn. In fifth place, the horror comedy with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega took in just $5.7 million compared to my $8.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 28-30 Box Office Predictions

A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

A Working Man Box Office Prediction
Death of a Unicorn Box Office Prediction
The Woman in the Yard Box Office Prediction
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 Box Office Prediction

Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.

That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

2. A Working Man

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

3. Death of a Unicorn

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. The Woman in the Yard

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

Box Office Results (March 21-23)

Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…

They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.

As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.

Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.

Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.

Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.

Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood hopes that Disney’s live-action remake of Snow White can wake up a sleepy box office this weekend while The Alto Knights with a double dose of Robert De Niro also debuts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Snow White Box Office Prediction
The Alto Knights Box Office Prediction

With Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen, there’s no doubt Snow White will dwarf all competitors. The question is by how much. A best case scenario might be around $60 million though it could bottom out in the mid to high 30s. I’m giving it high 40s. While that’s nothing to sneeze at, it’s not that happy a result for the Mouse House considering most of their other live-action retellings far outpaced that figure.

Mr. De Niro portrays two real-life gangsters in the period piece Knights. Warner Bros hasn’t given it much of a marketing push. My lower to mid single digits forecast could put it anywhere from second to sixth.

Holdovers Novocaine (the current champ), Black Bag, Captain America: Brave New World, and Mickey 17 should all generate similar earnings. In fact, I have #2 and #6 separated by only half a million bucks. That’s with Novocaine dwindling just over 50% and Black Bag falling in the high 40s in its sophomore frame. Captain America is likely to experience the smallest decline.

Here’s how I have the top 6 playing out:

1. Snow White

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. Novocaine

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

3. Captain America: Brave New World

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

4. Black Bag

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. The Alto Knights

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

6. Mickey 17

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (March 14-16)

It was a painful weekend in multiplexes as no feature topped $10 million. Novocaine with Jack Quaid had muted bragging rights in 1st with $8.8 million. Failing to match my $9.8 million prediction, look for this to fade quickly with a meh B Cinemascore.

Also sporting a B Cinemascore was Steven Soderbergh’s Black Bag with Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender. The spy thriller was second with $7.6 million, just over my $7.3 million projection.

Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 suffered a considerable 61% drop and was third with $7.4 million. I was a tad more generous to the Robert Pattinson sci-fi satire at $8.1 million. The two-week tally is an unimpressive $33 million.

Captain America: Brave New World was fourth at $5.6 million (I said $5.7 million) for a five-week total of $185 million and $200 million domestic looking achievable.

The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie rounded out the top five with a mere $3.1 million compared to my $3.8 million estimate for the animated offering.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…