Tag: Box Office Results

December 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction
The Housemaid Box Office Prediction
David Box Office Prediction
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.

Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.

Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $98 million

2. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

3. David

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million

4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

5. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.

Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.

Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.

That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.

Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 12-14 Box Office Predictions

Romantic dramedy Ella McKay hopes to find some viewers in a quiet weekend before potential holiday heavy hitters like Avatar: Fire and Ash, David, and The Housemaid arrive. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on Ella here:

Ella McCay Box Office Prediction

Like December’s first frame, the battle for #1 should be between current champ Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 and Zootopia 2. I was wrong about what would come out on top to start off the month (more on that below). However, Freddy’s could experience a similar mid to high 70s percentage decline that its predecessor did in 2023. Zootopia‘s should be less than 50% which should give it the win. Take that for it’s worth because I thought Freddy’s would open in second.

Wicked: For Good should stay in third with McKay in lower single digits for a fourth place showing or lower. It’s even possible that the 25th anniversary screenings of How the Grinch Stole Christmas or 45th anniversary showing of The Shining could make the top 5.

I’ll leave them out and here’s how I envision the chart shaking out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $23.6 million

2. Five Night at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $15.7 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

4. Ella McCay

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

5. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $2.4 million

Box Office Results (December 5-7)

I incorrectly thought Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 would suffer a far steeper drop-off from its predecessor which premiered at $80 million. While its $64 million haul was certainly less, it was far ahead of my $36.5 million estimate and ahead of expectations. Don’t be surprised if a third reservation is made by the studio.

That left Zootopia 2 in second place with $43.4 million, in line with my $43.1 million call. The Disney sequel has amassed $220 million since its Thanksgiving holiday start.

Wicked: For Good tumbled 72% to third in its third outing with $17.3 million. I was more generous at $23.2 million. This sequel is nearing $300 million at $297 million.

Anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Exeuction kept a hot streak going for the genre with $10 million, surpassing my $6.4 million prediction. Per above, expect a large drop in its sophomore play.

Finally, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with $3.4 million (I said $3.6 million) for $55 million after four weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:

Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 Box Office Prediction
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution Box Office Prediction

I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.

As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.

Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.

Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2

Predicted Gross: $36.5 million

3. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $23.2 million

4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

Box Office Results (November 28-30)

Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.

I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.

Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.

The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.

Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Zootopia 2 seeks to rule the Thanksgiving box office while rom com Eternity opens and will just try and make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Zootopia 2 Box Office Prediction
Eternity Box Office Prediction

Disney’s sequel to their 2016 Oscar-winning animated feature should easily the eclipse the $75 million debut of what came nine years ago. Zootopia 2 appears on track for the second highest Turkey frame behind the Mouse House’s own Moana 2 from last year.

As for Eternity, the heaven set pic with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen may struggle out of the (pearly) gates on approximately 1500 screens. My projection leaves it outside the top five.

Speaking of the high five, I’m doing not doing an official estimate for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. The third entry in Rian Johnson’s murder mystery series with Daniel Craig, it is slated for selected theaters prior to its December 12th Netflix bow. Three years ago, predecessor Glass Onion kicked off over the same holiday frame in nearly 700 venues. Though Netflix doesn’t officially report its numbers, figures of just over $9 million (three-day) and $13 million (five-day) were unofficially given for that rollout prior to its streaming start. Because hard figures aren’t revealed (and due to uncertainty about Wake‘s actual screen count), I’m not projecting it. That said, don’t be surprised if the unofficial tally reveals a third place showing with similar grosses to Onion. Got all that?

Moving to the holdovers, Wicked: For Good flew high with 2025’s second largest opening (more on that below). The first Wicked premiered in the same weekend in 2024 and dropped a mere 28% over Thanksgiving. The likelihood is that For Good is more front loaded and it may ease in the low to mid 40s for what would essentially be the same numbers for its sophomore play.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t, Predator: Badlands, and The Running Man should all move down a slot and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $112.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $184.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $82 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

6. Eternity

Predicted Gross: $3 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 21-23)

Wicked: For Good may not have completely defied prognostications, but its $147 million debut is second only to A Minecraft Movie for the year. Part 2 of the witchy and wizardly saga didn’t match my $158.1 million call though it managed to outshine the $112.5 million achieved by part 1.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t dropped to second with $8.9 million, in line with my $9.4 million prediction. The magic themed threequel has made off with $36 million.

Predator: Badlands was third in week 3 with $6.5 million compared to my $5.9 million take. It is up to $76 million overall.

In fourth position, The Running Man stumbled a steep 65% in weekend 2 with $5.7 million (I said $6.7 million) for just $26 million thus far.

Rental Family with Brendan Fraser, despite appreciative reviews and word-of-mouth, was fifth with a ho-hum $3.3 million. That is slightly above my $2.9 million estimate.

Finally, Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge was sixth with an unimpressive $2.4 million. I gave it more credit at $4 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 21-23 Box Office Predictions

Wicked: For Good sweeps in to rule the box office and it could compete for 2025’s biggest domestic opening. We also have Finnish action sequel Sisu: Road to Revenge and Japan set dramedy Rental Family making their debuts and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked: For Good Box Office Prediction
Sisu: Road to Revenge Box Office Prediction
Rental Family Box Office Prediction

The second part of Wicked is expected to easily swoosh past the $112 million opening of part 1 last year. The real question is whether it eclipses the $162 million start of A Minecraft Movie which currently holds the record for the year. I have falling just behind.

Sisu: Road to Revenge should manage to top the $3.3 million out of the gate that its predecessor achieved in 2023, but perhaps not by much. My mid single digits projection puts it in fifth.

Rental Family with Oscar winner Brendan Fraser hasn’t been able to generate much buzz despite mostly solid reviews. I have it struggling in sixth place.

Holdovers should populate slots 2-4. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t scored a surprise #1 showing (more on that below). If it drops in range with Now You See Me 2 from nine years ago, it could fall below $10 million for the runner-up spot. The second weekend of The Running Man and third frame of Predator: Badlands could see similar numbers battling for third.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Wicked: For Good

Predicted Gross: $158.1 million

2. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

3. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

4. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Sisu: Road to Revenge

Predicted Gross: $4 million

6. Rental Family

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (November 14-16)

As mentioned, threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t easily ruled the charts with a better than anticipated $21 million compared to my $17.1 million prediction. While it’s the lowest opening of the franchise (falling under the original’s $29 million and part two’s $22 million), the #1 posting was an unexpected development.

That’s because many prognosticators, including me, figured The Running Man with Glen Powell might manage bragging rights. Yet the sci-fi remake took in only $16.4 million for second, under my $19.6 million estimate.

Another projection I missed is that I thought Predator: Badlands wouldn’t experience the hefty sophomore decline of other pics in the franchise. However, it plummeted 68% to $12.7 million. I was far more generous at $18.2 million. The two-week tally is still an impressive $66 million.

Regretting You was fourth with $3.7 million and I was higher at $5 million. The four-week take is $44 million.

Black Phone 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. In its fifth week, it earned $2.6 million to bring its total to $74 million.

Keeper from Osgood Perkins was right behind in sixth with $2.5 million (I said $3.2 million). The horror flick couldn’t attract its intended audience.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/12): I am downgrading my The Running Man estimate from $27.6 million to $19.6 million as reviews and word-of-mouth have stalled momentum; I am downgrading my Keeper estimate from $6.5 million to $3.2 million

The Running Man looks steal the box office crown as heist threequel Now You See Me: Now You Don’t and horror pic Keeper debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:

The Running Man Box Office Prediction
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t Box Office Prediction
Keeper Box Office Prediction

Based on the Stephen King novel, sci-fi action satire The Running Man also serves as a remake of the 1987 pic with Glen Powell taking over starring duties from Arnold Schwarzenegger. I don’t think it reaches the heights of Predator: Badlands from this past weekend (more on that below), but it should place 1st in the low to mid 20s.

Now You See Me: Now You Don’t includes Jesse Eisenberg, Woody Harrelson, and Morgan Freeman reprising their roles from 2013 and 2016 predecessors. That’s a lengthy layover from part 2 to 3 and the second one didn’t match the original in terms of cash. I anticipate the drop-off will continue and I have See in third.

Keeper could overperform as horror titles often do, but I’m going mid single digits for a fourth place showing for the latest genre effort from the prolific Osgood Perkins.

It will be interesting to see the sophomore frame percentage decline for Predator: Badlands. 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator each debuted in the mid 20s (far below this one). They plummeted 72% and 63% respectively in their follow-up outings. The film in the franchise that performed similarly to Badlands (2004’s AVP: Alien Vs. Predator) saw a 68% dip. However, I don’t see this falling that far due to its A- Cinemascore (the strongest of the lot). Mid 50s seems more likely.

Regretting You, which showed impressive staying power last weekend, should round out the top five and here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. The Running Man

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

3. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $5 million

6. Keeper

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (November 7-9)

It took a nearly 40-year-old franchise to wake up the box office and showed that the series wasn’t over the hill as Predator: Badlands amassed $40 million. Solid word-of-mouth and positive reviews helped propel it to the highest start of the nine pictures when not adjusting for inflation. This easily eclipsed my $27.6 million prediction.

Regretting You, as mentioned, slid a teensy 15% in weekend #3 to $6.6 million compared to my $4.8 million call. The romantic drama is plugging along with $38 million thus far.

Black Phone 2 dropped from 1st to 3rd as it received $5.1 million, in line with my $4.6 million projection. The sequel has taken in $70 million after four weeks.

The inspirational early 20th century set drama Sarah’s Oil, which includes Zachary Levi among its cast, was my surprise of the weekend. It placed fourth with $4.2 million and I didn’t do a guesstimate. Scoring a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, Oil could hold up well in the coming weeks.

Historical courtroom drama Nuremberg with Oscar winners Russell Crowe and Rami Malek rounded out the top five with $3.8 million, managing to outdo my $3 million take.

Bugonia was sixth in weekend #2 at $3.4 million (ahead of my $2.7 million prediction) for $12 million after two weeks of wide release.

Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc finished seventh with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) as the anime hit stands at $37 million after three weeks.

Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson’s drama Die, My Love debuted in eighth with $2.6 million, on pace with my $2.5 million estimate.

Finally, boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney was KO’d in 11th with just $1.3 million. I was more generous at $2.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (11/05): Posting a significant update with Nuremberg and Die, My Love predicted openings at $3 million and $2.5 million, respectively.

After a frighteningly bad Halloween weekend that marked the worst box office frame of 2025, Predator: Badlands seeks to scare up decent business. We also have the boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Predator: Badlands Box Office Prediction
Christy Box Office Prediction

There’s no question that Predator: Badlands will easily be #1 though it has a wide range of possibilities. A worst case scenario might be high teens/low 20s with the rosiest performance nearing $40 million. I’m going mid to high 20s.

Christy could have benefited from better reviews and more awards speculation, but it should struggle to make the top 5.

On a side note, there’s two other wannabe Oscar contenders premiering: Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson in Die, My Love and the historical drama Nuremberg with Russell Crowe and Rami Malek. I’ve yet to see theater counts on either and both saw their awards prospects dim upon festival screenings. I will update my numbers if I feel one or both have a chance of breaking through.

As for holdovers, it could be a close race for #2 and I have Regretting You just edging current champ Black Phone 2. It could also be tight between Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc and Bugonia to round out the high five.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Predator: Badlands

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

3. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

4. Nuremberg

Predicted Gross: $3 million

5. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

6. Bugonia

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

7. Die, My Love

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

8. Christy

Predicted Gross: $2.2 million

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

The worst Halloween weekend since 1993 is thanks to a dearth of new material with a likely assist by game 7 of the World Series on Saturday night. Black Phone 2 managed to return to 1st in its third outing with $8.3 million, on target with my $8 million call. The horror sequel has taken in $61 million so far.

Regretting You was close behind in second with $7.8 million, ahead of my $6.1 million prediction. The romantic drama stands at $27 million after two weeks.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc, after an unexpected #1 bow, fell an anticipated 66% to third with $6.2 million (I said $6.4 million). The ten-day tally is $30 million.

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons didn’t exactly having bragging rights in fourth with $5 million. Yet it did easily eclipse my $2.8 million projection as it expanded nationwide. Counting its limited release the previous weekend, it’s made $6 million.

The 40th anniversary reissue of Back to the Future was fifth with $4.9 million compared to my $4.6 million guesstimate. The extra coin brought its overall domestic total to $221 million.

Finally, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere sank 58% in its sophomore go-round in sixth with $3.7 million, I was more generous at $4.8 million and the biopic has earned a mere $16 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 31-November 2 Box Office Predictions

The box office should be scary this weekend and not in a good way as there likely won’t be any films topping $10 million… with one potential unconventional exception.

New wide releases are the 40th anniversary re-release of Back to the Future and the expansion of Bugonia. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction
Bugonia Box Office Prediction

I have Future hitting mid single digits and that’s probably going to put the Robert Zemeckis classic toward the bottom of the top five (or six). I have it neck and neck with the second frame of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which delivered subpar numbers.

That’s more than I’m giving the latest Yorgos Lanthimos effort starring Emma Stone. With my Bugonia estimate under $3 million, it should be outside the first half of the top 10.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie: Reze Arc exceeded expectations (more on that below) and continued a banner year for anime. However, a drop in the mid to high 60s is probably coming.

Regretting You weathered poor reviews for an opening in line with estimates and I foresee a sophomore dip in the mid 50s.

If Chainsaw and Regretting play according to my though process, that could allow Black Phone 2 to return to #1 (officially). Moviegoers might seek a fright fest this weekend and the sequel fits the bill.

So what’s with all the uncertainty about what’s actually going to be #1? KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event is returning to theaters for Halloween weekend. The animated Netflix juggernaut first hit theaters in August for two days after its streaming start, resulting in a fantastic $19.2 million on Saturday and Sunday. This time around it’s playing all three days and I’m estimating it will generate $12 million. Here’s the catch. Netflix doesn’t officially report their numbers so it’ll be #1 with an asterisk.

Here’s how I have the top six (counting KPop) shaking out:

*1. KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Back to the Future

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

In a surprise result, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc was easily #1 with $18 million, eclipsing my $12.8 million estimate. It continues an impressive 2025 for Asian animated material including KPop and the record breaking Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.

Regretting You took the runner-up spot with $13.6 million, just under my $14 million prediction. The romantic drama based on a Colleen Hoover novel was hampered by far less buzz than last year’s It Ends with Us (a fellow Hoover adaptation) in addition to poor reviews.

Black Phone 2 fell two rungs to third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.7 million call. The ten-day total is $48 million.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere was a major disappointment in fourth with $8.8 million. I had it placing first with $16.1 million but moviegoers didn’t warm up to the musical biopic of The Boss.

Tron: Ares rounded out the top five with $4.9 million (I said $5 million) for a three-week tally of $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction
Good Fortune Box Office Prediction
After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.

The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.

As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.

Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million

2. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Good Fortune

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. After the Hunt

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 10-12)

Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.

Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.

One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.

I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.

The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.

Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/08): The announced theater count of just 1300 venues has me changing my prediction from $5.2 million to $2.2 million. That puts it outside of the of the top 5.

With Taylor Swift sashaying out of multiplexes after a dominant weekend, Tron: Ares looks to take over the charts. We also have Channing Tatum in the crime dramedy Roofman and Jennifer Lopez headlining Kiss of the Spider Woman. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction
Roofman Box Office Prediction
Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

With scant competition, Tron should have no trouble placing first. That said, I have the sci-fi threequel earning less out of the gate than what greeted Tron: Legacy nearly 15 years ago.

I have both Roofman and Spider Woman in the mid single digits and both could fall behind the third frame of One Battle After Another if it dips in the low to mid 40s. **I’ll also note the release of Soul on Fire starring William H. Macy. It could manage to do $3 million or so and sneak into the top 5, but I’m uncertain on the theater count. I may add it into the lineup later this week so keep an eye out.

The Conjuring: Last Rites could hold the five spot since I believe its decline will be far less than The Smashing Machine‘s sophomore outing. The latter bombed over the weekend (more on that below) and its B- Cinemascore doesn’t bode well for the road ahead.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

3. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

5. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (October 3-5)

To coincide with the release of her already record-breaking 12th album, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl played for a three-day engagement and was #1 as expected. The $34 million take was in line with many expectations, but I thought Ms. Swift might surpass them with a $48.6 million projection. Any way you cut it, it’s a fine result while not approaching the $93 million that her Eras Tour theatrical experience garnered.

In fact, pretty much everything fell below my forecasts this weekend. One Battle After Another slid to second with a troubling 50% decline to $11 million. I was more generous at $14.5 million as I thought the A Cinemascore would help out more than it did. The two-week take is $42 million.

Dwayne Johnson suffered his weakest ever wide release opening as The Smashing Machine crumbled in third with $6 million. I guesstimated more than twice that number at $13.7 million. A poor start like that should evaporate any awards buzz and look for it to fade quickly.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie nosedived 61% in fourth with $5.3 million compared to my glass half full $7.9 million prediction. Its ten-day tally is a meager $21 million.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five with $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The five-week total is $167 million.

Two other new(ish) titles struggled. The re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water was seventh with $3.2 million. I went with $4.4 million. Nevertheless the few extra bucks brought its gross to $687 million as Avatar: Fire and Ash is primed for December.

Canine horror pic Good Boy was ninth with $2.3 million, falling a bit under my $2.8 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…