March 13-15 Box Office Predictions

Two new features vie for audience attention as romantic drama Reminders of Him and low-budget Canadian horror flick Undertone make their way to multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

It is highly unlikely that either comes close to bouncing Hoppers from a repeat performance in first. Reminders, based on a Colleen Hoover novel, should be second though I have it just topping $10 million for a subpar start.

I’m not expecting much from Undertone, but it could manage a 4th or 5th place showing considering The Bride! should plummet out of the top 5 after a dismal debut (more on that below).

Hoppers, as mentioned, should be #1 assuming a slide in the high 30s or low 40s with Scream 7 and Goat placing third and fourth.

Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:

1. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million

2. Reminder of Him

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million

3. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. Undertone

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Goat

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million

6. The Bride!

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (March 6-8)

Disney/Pixar had a commendable opening for an original title as Hoppers earned $45.3 million, slightly topping my $43.6 million prediction. That’s a cut above recent studio originals Elemental and Elio which both failed to reach $30 million in their unveilings.

Scream 7 was runner-up and dropped a severe 73% in weekend #2 to $17 million, under my $19.5 million call. The latest franchise entry is up to $93 million.

The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s monster mash with Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale, failed to collect RSVPs with only $7 million in third. I projected more at $10.3 million. With a reported $85 million price tag, this is a costly dud for Warner Bros.

Goat was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $5.8 million) as the animated tale has amassed $83 million in four weeks.

Wuthering Heights rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in range with my $3.4 million forecast. The period romance, in its fourth week, stands at $78 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

March 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to jump to the top of the box office charts with Hoppers while Warner Bros hopes moviegoers RSVP for The Bride!, Maggie Gyllenhaal’s take on The Bride of Frankenstein starring Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Recent original Pixar titles (Elemental, Elio) have struggled out of the gate with openings below $30 million. With encouraging reviews, I suspect that won’t be the case with Hoppers and I’m going with a start in the mid 40s.

As for The Bride!, I am forecasting a subpar premiere barely topping $10 million. As I mentioned in my post, the second weekend of Scream 7 and especially similar subject matter being covered in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein on Netflix could hinder this.

Speaking of Scream 7, it had a terrific debut (more on that below) that easily set a franchise record. The horror genre usually sees substantial declines in their second frames and I envision a mid to high 60s plummet for the latest adventures of Ghostface. Goat and Wuthering Heights should round out the top five.

Here’s I how I envision it shaking out:

1. Hoppers

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

3. The Bride!

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Goat

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

5. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)

As mentioned, Scream 7 had no trouble making loud noises at multiplexes with a series best $63.6 million, trouncing the $44 million that 2023 predecessor Scream VI pulled in. It also eclipsed my meager $47.6 million prediction for the best start yet in 2026.

Goat dropped to second with $12 million, down only 29% for a three-week tally of $73 million. I went a little lower at $10.8 million.

Wuthering Heights was third with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and its three-week total is $72 million. The Margot Robbie-Jacob Elordi romance should fall a bit short of nine digits.

I did not have the rest of the high five being populated with music docs, but that was the result. Twenty One Pilots: More Than We Ever Imagined was fourth with $3.7 million. The King was fifth as EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert made $3.5 million to bring its earnings to nearly $8 million. Crime 101 was sixth with $3.7 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it and it’s made $30 million after three weeks.

I Can Only Imagine 2 fell a sharp 59% after a disappointing debut to $3.1 million in seventh. I forecasted a bit more at $4 million. The faith-based sequel stands at $13 million after ten days.

Send Help was eighth with $2.8 million (I went with $2.6 million) for a five-week gross of $59 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 27-March 1 Box Office Predictions

Scream 7 looks to easily slash all competitors as the only wide release this weekend. The horror pic will attempt to set a franchise best start and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:

In order to reach that milestone, 7 will need to build upon the $44 million earned by VI back in 2023. I’m estimating that it will indeed do so.

The rest of the top 5 is poised to be filled with holdovers. Goat and Wuthering Heights should each slip a spot to 2nd and 3rd in their third frames.

I Can Only Imagine 2 came in with far less than I imagined (more on that below). Even with an A+ Cinemascore grade, it might still decline in the mid to high 40s for a fourth place showing. Send Help could stay in fifth with a smaller percentage drop than current #4 Crime 101.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:

1. Scream 7

Predicted Gross: $47.6 million

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

3. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. I Can Only Imagine 2

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 20-22)

Animated Goat rose from 2nd to 1st in its sophomore outing with $16.8 million, a smidge past my $15.6 million prediction. The Sony sports tale has taken in $58 million thus far.

Wuthering Heights was second with $14 million, in range with my $13.2 million call. Falling a considerable 57%, Emerald Fennell’s doomed romance sits at $59 million after two weeks.

As mentioned, I Can Only Imagine 2 failed to bring in many fans of the 2018 original. It made $7.7 million, well below my generous $17.8 million forecast. That is less than half of what its predecessor made out of the gate.

Crime 101 plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $5.5 million compared to my $7.1 million take. It has made $24 million overall.

Send Help rounded out the top 5 with $4.4 million (I said $4.8 million) for a four-week total of $55 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2 looks to top the charts as the weekend’s only significant wide release and stands an excellent shot at doing so. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:

The Lionsgate follow-up to the 2018 sleeper hit hopes to build upon the $17 million premiere that its predecessor made. I have it barely doing so though this will likely be more front-loaded than the original. That should be good enough to nab the #1 slot.

That might depend on the sophomore fall of the animated Goat which met and even slightly exceeded expectations over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. I am confident its second weekend dip will be much smaller than that of current champ of Wuthering Heights (more on its performance below). Goat should stay in second with Heights falling to third.

Crime 101 might lose about half its crowd in weekend #2 with Send Help rounding out the top five.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. I Can Only Imagine 2

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $15.6 million

3. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

5. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

Box Office Results (February 13-16)

As anticipated, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of Wuthering Heights with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi managed to place first. However, I took the over on it and certainly should’ve went under. It opened below forecasts with $32.8 million from Friday to Sunday and $37.5 million when counting Monday. That’s well below my generous respective predictions of $55 million and $62.1 million. With a B Cinemascore grade, look for it to fade rather quickly. I have it declining in the 60% range this weekend.

Goat was runner-up with a $27.2 million 3-day and $35.1 million 4-day. That’s on target and a bit superior than my calls of $26.7 million and $30.4 million (it had a better Monday that I figured). The future looks bright with its A Cinemascore.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth was a decent third at $14.2 million (Fri-Sun) and $16 million over the long frame. The thriller performed in range with my takes of $13.3 million and $15.2 million.

Sam Raimi’s Send Help was fourth after two weeks in 1st with $8.8 million (3-day) and $10.1 million (4-day), ahead of my $7.4 million and $8.2 million projections. The laudable three-week tally is $49 million.

Solo Mio with Kevin James had a sturdy hold in fifth with $6.3 million (3-day) and $7.2 million (4-day). I said $6.9 million and $7.5 million. The two-week total is $17 million.

Two other newcomers performed in line with and below my guesstimates. Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die from Gore Verbinski was 8th with $3.6 million (3-day) and $4.1 million (4-day) and I was right there at $3.5 million and $4 million.

Finally, horror comedy Cold Storage got a chilly reception in 14th with $966k from Fri-Sun and $1.1 million factoring in Monday. I was more hopeful at $1.7 million and $2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 13-16 Box Office Predictions

In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:

Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.

Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.

Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.

As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for less with $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $2 million (Friday to Monday).

Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.

Here’s how I envision it shaking out:

1. Wuthering Heights

Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)

2. Goat

Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)

3. Crime 101

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)

4. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)

5. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)

Box Office Results (February 6-8)

Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.

Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.

Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.

Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.

Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.

The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.

Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Don’t count on a super weekend at the box office as horror sequel The Strangers – Chapter 3 and Kevin James headlined dramedy Solo Mio compete with the dog days of the season and the Super Bowl. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

I don’t see either title toppling Send Help in its second weekend. The Sam Raimi pic had a better than expected start (more on that below) and should see a drop in the low to mid 50s.

In third position, I have Solo edging Strangers in a close race for (non) bragging rights. That said, either could over or underperform.

After another better than anticipated debut, Melania should see a smaller sophomore decline than Iron Lung. That’s with a caveat that the doc about the First Lady might be more front-loaded than my estimate.

Here’s how I see the high five shaking out:

1. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

2. Iron Lung

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

3. Solo Mio

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

4. The Strangers – Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. Melania

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Predictions (January 30-February 1)

As much of the nation dug out from a winter snowstorm, more of them headed to theaters than I figured. Three of the four newcomers easily surpassed my forecasts. Send Help, capitalizing on solid reviews, was tops with $19.1 million compared to my $13.5 million prediction. The B+ Cinemascore is promising for its genre though I still think it falls around 50% this coming weekend.

Gamer based Iron Lung was right behind in second with $18.1 million, blowing past my measly $8 million projection. This is widely anticipated to make the bulk of its cash right away. It is still a terrific gross given the reported $3 million price tag.

Melania also exceeded its range with $7.1 million as the political documentary played best between the coasts in third. I went lower at $4.2 million.

Holdovers held up well with Zootopia 2 actually gaining 12% over the previous weekend with $5.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top 6. The ten-week tally is $409 million.

Avatar: Fire and Ash rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $4.9 million). After seven weeks, it has amassed $386 million.

Jason Statham action thriller Shelter was not found by many fans in sixth with $5.5 million compared to my $6.9 million take.

Finally, sci-fi courtroom saga Mercy fell 58% and from 1st to 7th with $4.5 million, in line with my $4.7 million guesstimate. The two-week total is $19 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 30-February 1 Box Office Predictions

Three new features could fill the top 3 slots to close out January and begin February. We have Sam Raimi’s horror thriller Send Help, video game based sci-fi pic Iron Lung, and Jason Statham’s latest action effort Shelter all seeking viewers. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

All of them have the potential to exceed my expectations, but I’m giving Send Help (with mostly impressive reviews) the edge with a gross in the low teens.

As for Lung and Shelter, I have them in a close race for the #2 position and both falling under $10 million. I’ll note that Lung‘s gamer fans and Statham’s previous grosses could suggest I’m underestimating.

Some might say for the same for Melania. Brett Ratner’s documentary about the First Lady is a question mark. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll say $4.2 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.

After an unimpressive start, I look for Mercy to lose over half its audience with Avatar: Fire and Ash perhaps placing and Mercy in fifth. Here’s how I see it all shaking out:

1. Send Help

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million

2. Iron Lung

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Shelter

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Mercy

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million

6. Melania

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (January 23-25)

Bad weather, Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, and Broncos contributed to a dismal weekend as Mercy with Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson did manage to become 2026’s first feature to hit #1. The poorly reviewed AI courtroom saga made $10.8 million compared to my $9.3 million prediction. Expect it to fade quickly.

Avatar: Fire and Ash, after five weeks in first, dropped to second with $6.4 million. I’ll note now that all holdovers experienced larger drops than I assumed. I had the James Cameron threequel at $9.8 million. The total is $377 million

Zootopia 2 was third with $5.3 million, under my $6.8 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $401 million after nine weeks.

The Housemaid was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $6.2 million) for a six-week tally of $115 million.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple plummeted a massive 73% in its sophomore outing with $3.4 million. I was more generous at $5.5 million. At only $20 million in two weeks, it’s a dud despite impressive critical reaction.

Finally, Return to Silent Hill (another video game based offering) debuted in seventh with $3.2 million. It actually managed to exceed my $2.2 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson headline the sci-fi thriller Mercy this weekend and it looks to be the only newbie with a shot at the top spot or top 5 for that matter. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

With word-of-mouth lacking, Mercy has the air of a streaming title that is going the multiplex route. A debut over $10 million is certainly possible, but I’m going a tad lower. My estimate would put it just behind Avatar: Fire and Ash which I’m giving an unexpected sixth week atop the rankings.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple was a major disappointment out of the gate (more on that below). Despite an encouraging A- Cinemascore grade (the best of the four features in the long running franchise), it should experience the heftiest decline in the upper half of the charts. That likely means a slide from 2nd to 5th. Holdovers Zootopia 2 and The Housemaid should remain sturdier.

Return to Silent Hill is another new offering. I didn’t do an individual post for the horror threequel and I have it at $2.2 million, putting it well outside the top 5.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

2. Mercy

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

3. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (January 16-18)

In an unanticipated twist, Avatar: Fire and Ash managed to place 1st for a fifth week over MLK weekend with $14.4 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s a tad below my $15.5 million forecast as the third pic in the series is up to $364 million.

28 Years Later: The Bone Temple severely underperformed with $12.5 million for runner-up status. Even with the MLK Monday factored in ($14.4 million over four days), that’s less than half of what predecessor 28 Years Later brought in last summer and easily under my $20.1 million take.

Zootopia 2 was third in weekend #8 with $9.1 million, in line with my $8.6 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $390 million with $400 million around the corner.

The Housemaid was fourth with $8.5 million (I said $8.9 million) as the blockbuster thriller crossed nine digits with $107 million after five weeks.

Marty Supreme rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. With an additional $5.4 million in its coffers, the total stands at $79 million and it has become A24’s largest domestic earner.

Finally, Primate was sixth with $5 million, not matching my $6 million projection. The rabid chimp saga has made $19 million after two weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Avatar: Fire and Ash should finally relinquish its box office crown after four weeks to 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic franchise here:

Bone follows 28 Years Later by only seven months. While I don’t envision it matching the $30 million start achieved by its predecessor, my $20M projection has it leading the way over Avatar which should see a lower to mid teens gross.

Holdovers should populate the rest of the top 5. I will note the possibility that anime flick All You Need is Kill could make the cut in its domestic debut, but I’m not doing an estimate since I haven’t seen a theater count. If that dynamic changes and I feel it could make the high five, I’ll update. Same goes for the expansion of freshly minted Golden Globe Best Drama recipient Hamnet.

This is MLK weekend though I’m only predicting the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the frame. You usually see smaller drops for leftover titles during this time period. Primate seems poised for the biggest dip. Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple

Predicted Gross: $20.1 million

2. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Primate

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (January 9-11)

Avatar: Fire and Ash made it a four-peat with $21.5 million, on track with my $20 million call. That brings the third offering in James Cameron’s epic series to $342 million thus far.

Primate scored the highest debut of the newcomers (something I incorrectly forecasted) with $11.1 million in second. The monkey gone wild tale topped my $9.7 million prediction for a respectable start.

The Housemaid continued its meager drops in third with $10.9 million, ahead of my $8.2 million guesstimate. The buzzy thriller is nearing nine digits with $93 million in the bank.

Zootopia 2 was fourth with $10 million (I said $9.8 million) to bring its gargantuan haul to $378 million with $400 million domestic easily in its sights.

Gerard Butler action sequel Greenland 2: Migration struggled in fifth with $8.4 million compared to my $12.9 million prediction. I wrongly thought it would place second.

Finally, Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On? didn’t stand out with audiences. In its wide expansion, it was 11th with $2.3 million. I went a tad higher at $2.6 million and it’s made $3.4 million total when factoring its limited release.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

January 9-11 Box Office Predictions

The initial cinematic experiences of 2026 arrive this weekend via disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration, animalistic horror tale Primate, and the nationwide expansion of dramedy Is This Thing On? You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

My near teens projection for Gerard Butler’s Migration would give it the highest debut of the newcomers, but that won’t be near enough to dislodge Avatar: Fire and Ash from a fourth frame atop the rankings. Now that the Christmas corridor has lapsed, holdovers should generally see declines in the 50% or so range.

Primate could certainly over perform as the genre sometimes does, but I’ve got it in a race with a fellow (and family friendlier) creature feature in the seventh weekend of Zootopia 2. The Housemaid should round out the top five.

As for Bradley Cooper’s third directorial feature Is This Thing On?, my meager $2.6 million take puts it well outside the top half of the charts. It might even fail to make the top 10. I’m expecting the same for Angel Studios’ I Was a Stranger. I didn’t do an individual prediction post for it. I’ll say $2.4 million.

And with that, here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $20 million

2. Greenland 2: Migration

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

3. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Primate

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

5. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

Box Office Results (January 2-4)

It was a heap of holiday leftovers as 2026 rang in with Avatar: Fire and Ash dominating with $41.4 million, in line with my $41.4 million call. The James Cameron threequel is up to $307 million after three weeks. This will not reach the heights of its predecessors, but I would imagine the studio would have no qualms with future sequels.

Zootopia 2 only eased 2% in weekend #6 with $19.3 million, toppling my $15.3 million prediction. The Disney blockbuster stands at $364 million.

The Housemaid has developed commendable legs with only a 1% dip at $15.1 million compared to my $12.5 million estimate. The buzzy thriller has earned $75 million after three weeks with nine digits in its sights.

Marty Supreme was fourth with $12.5 million (I went a little higher at $14.2 million) as the potential Timothée Chalamet Oscar winner has grown to $56 million in its second frame of wide release.

Anaconda rounded out the top five with $10 million, slithering beyond my $8 million projection for $45 million after two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants found itself in sixth with $8.3 millon (I said $7.7 million) for $57 million after three weeks,

Biblical animated pic David was seventh with $7.6 million, a touch ahead of my $6.5 million guesstimate for $69 million in three weeks,

Finally, Song Sung Blue was eighth with $5.8 million (I said $6 million) with $25 million now in the coffers of the musical drama.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…