Warner Bros hopes One Battle After Another rides a wave of critical kudos and Oscar buzz to a stellar opening on September 26th. The action comedy is the latest effort from auteur Paul Thomas Anderson with Leonardo DiCaprio headlining. Costars include Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, Regina Hall, Teyana Taylor and Chase Infiniti.
Sporting a budget reportedly north of $130 million, reviews indicate it will be a major awards player this season. Rotten Tomatoes is at 97% with 96 on Metacritic. This has been a huge year for WB with hits including A Minecraft Movie, Sinners, Final Destination Bloodlines, F1, Superman, Weapons and The Conjuring: Last Rites. This could be another with its star power and building word-of-mouth.
That said, this should start out slower than all of the above and seek to leg out impressively over subsequent frames. Low 20s is probably the floor and I’ll say it manages close to $30 million at the outset.
One Battle After Another opening weekend prediction: $27 million
For my Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie prediction, click here:
The box office should come down to Earth a bit this weekend after Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle smashed the opening weekend record for an anime title. We have football themed horror thriller Him starring Marlon Wayans, fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell and football themed inspirational tale The Senior featuring Michael Chiklis opening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Him, from Jordan Peele’s production house, should have bragging rights in 1st position though my low 20s take puts it well behind what other recent horror flicks have achieved.
The other newcomers might not make the top 5. Journey is a head scratcher. As I pointed out in the long post, this is Robbie’s first significant project since Barbie and you’d think there would be more hype. My mid single digits estimate has it in sixth.
As for The Senior, Angel Studios dusted it off after it premiered at a Floridian film festival two years back. Their marketing might get this to mid single digits (if they’re lucky) for seventh place.
Demon Slayer indeed slayed this past weekend (more on that below). These types of anime offerings are typically front loaded and I expect that to be case here. A sophomore drop in the mid to high 70s would give it mid teens and it certainly could repeat in 1st if Him underwhelms.
Being that I’m unconvinced about Journey and The Senior, holdovers The Conjuring: Last Rites, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale and The Long Walk could populate the rest of the high five.
Here’s how I see the top 7 shaking out:
1. Him
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
2. Demon Slayer: Kimsetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
3. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $12.4 million
4. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
5. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
6. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
7. The Senior
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million
Box Office Results (September 12-14)
Demon Slayer (I’ve tired of writing the rest of its name) lived up to its late breaking hype with a gargantuan haul of $70.6 million, above my $64.6 million projection. The Crunchyroll release capitalized on unprecedented domestic interest in the genre as it attained the status of an event picture.
The Conjuring: Last Rites, after its own huge start, dropped an understandable 69% to second with $25.6 million. I predicted a tad more at $28.5 million. The two-week tally is a scary good $130 million as it nears the $137 million franchise record held by 2013’s original.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale managed to slightly outdo its 2022 predecessor in third with $18.1 million. My guesstimate? $18.1 million! This should also be front loaded and I’m thinking a low to mid 60s fall for this weekend.
Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk was fourth with $11.7 million compared to my $8.7 million call. Solid critical reaction likely helped push it past double digits.
The 30th anniversary re-release of Pixar’s inaugural effort Toy Story rounded out the top five with $3.4 million. I didn’t do a prediction for it. The additional dollars brought its three decade old total to $195 million (or over $400 million stateside adjusted for inflation).
Finally, mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues flopped in ninth (at least it didn’t go to 11th) with $1.6 million. I was more generous at $3.4 million as interest wasn’t present for the sequel to the classic 1984 original.
Nearly two years after premiering at the Fort Lauderdale Film Festival, The Senior is finally graduating to an actual release on September 19th. Distributed by Angel Studios, it tells the true life story of a 59-year-old (Michael Chiklis) given the chance to play college football. Rod Lurie directs with Mary Stuart Masterson, Brandon Flynn, James Badge Dale and Rob Corddry costarring.
The Senior will not be the biggest grossing gridiron themed debut next weekend due to horror pic Him. It does have a fair shot at outgrossing the weekend’s other new release A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, which sports a higher profile.
Like other Angel titles, a lower to mid single digits start is the likely scenario.
The Senior opening weekend prediction: $3.3 million
Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell headline the fantastical drama A Big Bold Beautiful Journey beginning September 19th. Kogonada, best known for making Columbus and After Yang, directs with a supporting cast including Kevin Kline, Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Lily Rabe, Jodie Turner-Smith and Billy Magnussen.
Nearly five years ago, the script by Seth Reiss was featured on the “Black List” of Hollywood’s hottest screenplays not yet produced. Yet with its release less than a week away, buzz for Beautiful is exceedingly quiet. This is even more surprising since it’s Robbie’s first major project since her 2023 box office phenomenon Barbie. I also find it curious that this skipped the film festival circuit of Venice, Telluride and Toronto where this could’ve built word-of-mouth.
That all may spell an inconsequential start in the mid single digits.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
Universal hopes sports and horror is a successful mix when Him opens September 19th. From Jordan Peele’s Monkeypaw production house, Justin Tipping directs and cowrites. Marlon Wayans is an aging quarterback training a newbie (Tyriq Winters) via unconventional methods. The supporting cast includes Julia Fox, Tim Heidecker and Jim Jefferies.
If Peele were behind the camera, my projection might double. Scary movie aficionados have had lots to feast on recently (Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites). Him should successfully bring a fair portion out though it’s unlikely to approach the level of the aforementioned pics.
We have certainly seen this genre greatly exceed expectations in 2025, but I’ll say low 20s is where this lands.
Him opening weekend prediction: $20.3 million
For my A Big Bold Beautiful Journey prediction, click here:
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the box office while Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale, Stephen King adaptation The Long Walk and mockumentary sequel Spinal Tap II: The End Continues hope for strong showings. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet of newcomers can be accessed here:
The influx of material could cause the top 5 to consist of 80% fresh product. Demon Slayer appears primed for a breakout performance that doubles the best in show previous start of the franchise in 2021. My low to mid 50s estimate should easily give it the top spot.
The Conjuring: Last Rites vastly blew past expectations (more on that below). In its sophomore frame, a slippage in the mid to even high 60s could occur and would be perfectly understandable.
Franchise finale Abbey should debut in range with its 2022 predecessor in the mid to higher teens for a likely third place posting.
Despite impressive reviews, The Long Walk could struggle to each double digits (it doesn’t help that Conjuring is still out there).
Finally, Spinal Tap II might see mid single digits and that may be enough for fifth place.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $64.6 million
2. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $28.5 million
3. Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale
Predicted Gross: $18.1 million
4. The Long Walk
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. Spinal Tap II: The End Continues
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (September 5-7)
Even the rosiest of prognoses didn’t match what The Conjuring: Last Rites managed to accomplish. The ninth overall pic in the franchise and fourth with a Conjuring moniker scared up $84 million and ghosted my measly $58.2 million prediction. Rites surpassed the best opening of the series (The Nun at $53 million) with plenty of room to spare. Warner Bros continued its remarkable 2025 in the horror genre (Sinners, Weapons).
Hamilton, a filmed version of the already iconic play, was second with $10.1 million on its 10th anniversary. That’s ahead of my $8.7 million estimate and a commendable gross considering this has been streaming on Disney+ for five years. This is only a one-week engagement which explains why you won’t find it in the top 5 above.
Weapons was third with $5.2 million, in range with my $5.5 million call. In five weeks, it has amassed $142 million.
Freakier Friday, also in week 5, was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $3.9 million) for $87 million total. It should fall just under or place just over $100 million.
Caught Stealing rounded out the top five with a hefty 59% decline at $3.1 million. I went a bit higher at $4 million. The two-week take is an underwhelming $14 million.
1984’s This Is Spinal Tap popularized the mockumentary and became an all-time comedy classic. Over four decades later, the clueless rock band consisting of Christoper Guest, Michael McKean and Harry Shearer is back in Spinal Tap II: The End Continues. So is Rob Reiner as their documentarian and the sequel’s actual director. Expect plenty of cameos as evidenced by Sirs Paul McCartney and Elton John in the trailer.
With Bleecker Street handling distribution duties, marketing for the follow-up is a little underwhelming. Many younger viewers simply may not be familiar with the source material while some fans of the original may wait until a streaming start.
The original’s biggest fans should still turn up, but that might only mean a debut in the mid single digits at best.
Spinal Tap II: The End Continues opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
Despite critical acclaim, The Long Walk could face a tough road when it debuts September 12th. The Lionsgate release is based on the first novel that Stephen King ever wrote when he was a teenager (it was eventually released under his pseudonym Richard Bachman in 1979). I Am Legend and Hunger Games series maker Francis Lawrence directs the dystopian horror flick. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman, David Jonsson, Garrett Wareing, Tut Nyuot, Charlie Plummer, Ben Wang, Roman Griffin Davis, Jordan Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Judy Greer, and Mark Hamill.
Reviews are impressive with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 80 on Metacritic. That said, genre fans have had plenty of material to view lately and The Conjuring: Last Rites should still be haunting viewers in its sophomore frame. Solid word-of-mouth could push it over double digits, but I’m skeptical.
The Long Walk opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kametsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
Arriving 15 years after the acclaimed TV series that have now spawned three feature films, Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale is out September 12th. Simon Curtis, who directed 2022’s Downton Abbey: A New Era, returns with franchise creator Julian Fellowes scripting. Returning cast members from the small and big screen include Hugh Bonneville, Laura Carmichael, Jim Carter, Raquel Cassidy, Paul Copley, Brendan Coyle, Michelle Dockery, Paul Giamatti, Elizabeth McGovern, Dominic West, and Penelope Wilton. Newcomers to the proceedings are Joely Richardson, Alessandro Nivola, Simon Russell Beale, and Arty Froushan.
Fans of the series were anxious to go Downton in 2019 when the first movie premiered four years after the show went off air. The domestic opening was $31 million with a $96 million eventual gross. In 2022, the figures for New Era dwindled to a $16 million start and $44 million overall.
Grand could potentially benefit from its Finale moniker, but I’m not counting on it. I think it’ll open in range with its predecessor and maybe a touch higher.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale opening weekend prediction: $18.1 million
For my Demon Slayer: Kimestu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle prediction, click here:
The generously titled Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle seeks to conquer the domestic marketplace starting September 12th. Tracking indicates that it will. Based on the popular Japanese manga series, it the latest installment in a franchise that continues to grow in popularity. A direct sequel to the fourth season of the anime TV series, Haruo Sotozaki directs the Crunchyroll distributed two and a half hour fantasy.
Castle has already dominated the overseas market. In its home country, it stands as the year’s highest grosser and third largest in history. In 2021, Mugen Train started off with $21 million stateside. Two years later, To the Swordsmith Village debuted to just over $10 million which 2024’s To the Hashira Training earned north of $11 million.
Buzz is louder this time around with expectations elevated. At the low end, Castle is anticipated to double the figures of its two predecessors. Some projections have this as high as $70 million plus! That would be an astonishing gross, but this could catch a wave making it possible. I’m going with low to mid 60s for what would be a record shattering beginning for its genre.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle opening weekend prediction: $64.6 million
For my Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale prediction, click here:
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