Tag: box office predictions

October 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction
Good Fortune Box Office Prediction
After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.

The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.

As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.

Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million

2. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Good Fortune

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. After the Hunt

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 10-12)

Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.

Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.

One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.

I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.

The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.

Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

The busy Luca Guadagnino (who helmed two 2024 releases with Challengers and Queer) is back in multiplexes with After the Hunt. The thriller features Julia Roberts headlining alongside Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg and Chloë Sevigny. An Amazon MGM production, it was unveiled in six venues last weekend with the wide release on October 17th.

Hunt debuted at the Venice Film Festival in late August. Considered by many (including me) to be a major awards player, the Italian screening essentially disabused that notion. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 44% with Metacritic at 51.

Despite its middling critical reaction, it performed impressively in limited fashion with a $26k+ per screen average. However, the coastal performance likely won’t correlate to everything in between. Slated to expand to approximately 1200 screens, lower to mid single digits sounds right.

After the Hunt wide opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million

For my Black Phone 2 prediction, click here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction

For my Good Fortune prediction, click here:

Good Fortune Box Office Prediction

Good Fortune Box Office Prediction

Good Fortune is hoping for just that when the Lionsgate release opens October 17th. The supernatural comedy marks the directorial debut of Aziz Ansasi. He also wrote the script and costars with Seth Rogen, Keke Palmer, Sandra Oh and Keanu Reeves as a guardian angel.

The film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly satisfied reviews (83% Rotten Tomatoes, 69 Metacritic). Humorous features have seen decreasing wide theatrical releases in recent years. In August, The Naked Gun managed mid teens out of the gate with name brand recognition.

I doubt Fortune is that fortunate. Low teens could be the ceiling and $10M+ is certainly possible, but I’m going lower as this genre struggles at multiplexes.

Good Fortune opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million

For my Black Phone 2 prediction, click here:

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction

For my After the Hunt prediction, click here:

After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

Black Phone 2 Box Office Prediction

Universal Pictures is banking on horror fans receiving Black Phone 2 with open arms on October 17th. Following up on the surprise 2022 hit based on a novel by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson is back directing. Ethan Hawke reprises his role as serial killer The Grabber alongside Mason Thameas, Madeleine McGraw, Demián Bechir, Miguel Mora, Jeremy Davies and Arianna Rivas.

Scary movies have been hot properties in 2025 and there should be enough goodwill left over from the original for this to solidly perform. Reviews are mostly positive with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic (pretty much right where part 1 landed).

I wouldn’t be surprised if this premiere plays out similar to Smile 2. That sequel opened on the same weekend last year with $23 million and that just edged the $22.6 million earned by its predecessor. The first Phone dialed up $23.6 million for starters and I’ll gave 2 slightly more.

Black Phone 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.5 million

For my Good Fortune prediction, click here:

Good Fortune Box Office Prediction

For my After the Hunt prediction, click here:

After the Hunt Box Office Prediction

October 10-12 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (10/08): The announced theater count of just 1300 venues has me changing my prediction from $5.2 million to $2.2 million. That puts it outside of the of the top 5.

With Taylor Swift sashaying out of multiplexes after a dominant weekend, Tron: Ares looks to take over the charts. We also have Channing Tatum in the crime dramedy Roofman and Jennifer Lopez headlining Kiss of the Spider Woman. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction
Roofman Box Office Prediction
Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

With scant competition, Tron should have no trouble placing first. That said, I have the sci-fi threequel earning less out of the gate than what greeted Tron: Legacy nearly 15 years ago.

I have both Roofman and Spider Woman in the mid single digits and both could fall behind the third frame of One Battle After Another if it dips in the low to mid 40s. **I’ll also note the release of Soul on Fire starring William H. Macy. It could manage to do $3 million or so and sneak into the top 5, but I’m uncertain on the theater count. I may add it into the lineup later this week so keep an eye out.

The Conjuring: Last Rites could hold the five spot since I believe its decline will be far less than The Smashing Machine‘s sophomore outing. The latter bombed over the weekend (more on that below) and its B- Cinemascore doesn’t bode well for the road ahead.

Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:

1. Tron: Ares

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

3. Roofman

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

4. The Conjuring: Last Rites

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

5. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (October 3-5)

To coincide with the release of her already record-breaking 12th album, Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl played for a three-day engagement and was #1 as expected. The $34 million take was in line with many expectations, but I thought Ms. Swift might surpass them with a $48.6 million projection. Any way you cut it, it’s a fine result while not approaching the $93 million that her Eras Tour theatrical experience garnered.

In fact, pretty much everything fell below my forecasts this weekend. One Battle After Another slid to second with a troubling 50% decline to $11 million. I was more generous at $14.5 million as I thought the A Cinemascore would help out more than it did. The two-week take is $42 million.

Dwayne Johnson suffered his weakest ever wide release opening as The Smashing Machine crumbled in third with $6 million. I guesstimated more than twice that number at $13.7 million. A poor start like that should evaporate any awards buzz and look for it to fade quickly.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie nosedived 61% in fourth with $5.3 million compared to my glass half full $7.9 million prediction. Its ten-day tally is a meager $21 million.

The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five with $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The five-week total is $167 million.

Two other new(ish) titles struggled. The re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water was seventh with $3.2 million. I went with $4.4 million. Nevertheless the few extra bucks brought its gross to $687 million as Avatar: Fire and Ash is primed for December.

Canine horror pic Good Boy was ninth with $2.3 million, falling a bit under my $2.8 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/08): The announced theater count of just 1300 venues has me changing my prediction from $5.2 million to $2.2 million

Bill Condon (Dreamgirls, Beauty and the Beast) adapts a 1976 stage play where the first cinematic version in 1985 nabbed William Hurt an Oscar in Kiss of the Spider Woman. Out October 10th, the musical drama premiered back at Sundance early this year. Jennifer Lopez, Tonatiuh (in the Hurt role) and Diego Luna headline.

The politically charged tale generated mixed to positive notices in Utah. Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% while the Metacritic score is 60. Awards buzz lies with Lopez and some tech races only. Better word-of-mouth could have equaled stronger grosses.

I suspect this will struggle to find an audience. A theater count might alter my projection, but I’m going mid single digits.

Kiss of the Spider Woman opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million

For my Tron: Ares prediction, click here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

For my Roofman prediction, click here:

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Channing Tatum plays a real life robber using unconventional break-in methods in the dramedy Roofman. The Paramount release is out October 10th with Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines) directing. Kirsten Dunst costars with a supporting cast including Ben Mendelsohn, LaKeith Stanfield, Juno Temple, Melonie Diaz, Uzo Abuba, Lily Collias, Jimmy O. Yang and Peter Dinklage.

After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month, reviews were mostly complimentary with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic. However, the buzz wasn’t strong enough to get in the awards conversation.

Roofman will rely solely on Tatum’s drawing power, but plenty of viewers may wait until streaming options are available. The ceiling for this could be $10 million (which would be an admirable result). I think mid single digits is where it lands.

Roofman opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Tron: Ares prediction, click here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

For my Kiss of the Spider Woman prediction, click here:

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

Arriving 15 years after a sequel that followed the original by 28 years, Tron: Ares hits theaters October 10th. Disney’s sci-fi action threequel has Joachim Rønning taking over directorial duties from Joseph Kosinski, who made 2010’s Tron: Legacy before helming Top Gun: Maverick and F1. Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro, Gillian Anderson and Jeff Bridges (reprising his role from the first two) star.

The franchise certainly has its followers though it’s fair to wonder if younger viewers will turn out. They might not be as familiar with the source material from 2010 (let alone 1982). Legacy performed decently with a $44 million opening and $172 eventual domestic gross. It made just under $400 million worldwide. Ares would be fortunate to replicate that and projections have it starting in the same range (not adjusted for inflation). I’ll say this manages just under that figure.

Tron: Ares opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my Roofman prediction, click here:

Roofman Box Office Prediction

For my Kiss of the Spider Woman prediction, click here:

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

October 3-5 Box Office Predictions

Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction
The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction
Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction
Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.

The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.

While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.

My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.

As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.

Here’s I have it all shaking out:

1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl

Predicted Gross: $48.6 million

2. One Battle After Another

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. The Smashing Machine

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million

4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (September 26-28)

Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.

Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.

The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.

The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.

Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Good Boy Box Office Prediction

Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.

Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.

Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:

Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl Box Office Prediction

For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:

The Smashing Machine Box Office Prediction

For my Avatar: The Way of Water re-release prediction, click here:

Avatar: The Way of Water Re-Release Box Office Prediction