Tag: box office predictions

June 30-July 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.

Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction
Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.

Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.

No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $65.3 million

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.

Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.

The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.

Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.

Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have revised my prediction from $10.8 million down to $7.8 million

DreamWorks is banking on young girls and their parents depositing their money and time into Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken when it debuts June 30th. The animated coming-of-age fantasy is directed by Kirk DeMicco, who helmed blockbuster The Croods for the studio a decade ago. Lana Condor voices the high school sophomore title character. Other performers mic’d up include Toni Collette, Annie Murphy, Sam Richardson, Colman Domingo, Will Forte, Liza Koshy, and Jane Fonda.

The studio just had a sizable hit with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish over the holidays and they have future entries in the Trolls and Kung Fu Panda series on deck. Kraken has the disadvantage of not being based on known IP and following Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Pixar’s Elemental.

There doesn’t seem to be much chatter for this one. If Elemental couldn’t hit $30 million out of the gate, I question whether Gillman can reach half of that number. I’ll project that it falls short for an underwhelming premiere.

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny prediction, click here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction

Ahh, the 80s. It’s a decade where filmmakers (many of whom came of age at the time) are constantly prodding our nostalgic sensibilities. That’s when the Spielberg/Lucas collaborative trilogy of Raiders of the Lost Ark, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, and Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade gave Harrison Ford another iconic role and moviegoers another classic franchise. In 2008, Ford donned the fedora again to more mixed results with Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. The 80s now describes the lead’s own age (he became an octogenarian last summer). Indy is back as James Mangold takes over directorial duties with Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, the time travel adventure that marks the fifth and last entry in the series. The Logan and Ford v Ferrari maker also has Karen Allen and John Rhys-Davies reprising their roles. Other supporting players include Phoebe Waller-Bridge, Mads Mikkelsen, Antonio Banderas, Toby Jones, Boyd Holbrook, and Ethann Isidore.

With a whopping budget reportedly approaching $300 million, Disney is banking on crowds of all ages making the multiplex trek. That’s not a sure thing as we all just witnessed The Flash go belly up. Destiny attempted to generate solid buzz when it premiered last month at the Cannes Film Festival. It might’ve had the opposite effect. Reviews were middling and it currently stands at just 59% on Rotten Tomatoes (the oft maligned Skull sits at 77%). Another factor is that younger viewers may not have the sentimentality for Indy that older ones hold.

Fifteen summers ago, Skull premiered on Thursday ahead of a long Memorial Day holiday weekend. It amassed over $150 million for the five-day haul. A three-day take of $100 million would be welcome news for the Mouse Factory. I’m skeptical if that’s achievable. In fact, I’m questioning whether it reaches the figure that shares Ford’s age. Anything under $80 million would certainly be considered a disappointment and that’s where I have this landing. In fact, I’m only going mid-6os for what would be considered a massive letdown.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opening weekend prediction: $65.3 million

For my Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken prediction, click here:

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

June 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Following a weekend in which two high profile pictures opened far under what their respective studios hoped for, a pair of comedies debut wide attempting to find an audience. They are Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings and Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction
Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

Feelings marks Lawrence’s first headlining role in theaters since Red Sparrow over five years ago. This isn’t a genre she’s known for and comedies in general struggle to break out these days in multiplexes. It could be lucky to top $10 million and that should put it in fourth position for a soft start.

Asteroid City performed impressively in its limited NY/LA six theater engagement. Branching out to middle America is another ballgame and my estimate puts it in sixth.

As for the #1 spot… well, it gets interesting. Before The Flash premiered, the assumption was it would have two weeks to itself atop the charts. However, the Ezra Miller led DCEU adventure opened way below expectations (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, a drop in the mid 60s could occur. If Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse sees a small decline in the 30% range, Spidey may return to the top spot over his superhero competitor. I’m guessing that will be the case.

The Flash wasn’t the only bomb as Pixar’s Elemental, for all intents and purposes, had the weakest wide release in the studio’s near 30 year history. It had an A Cinemascore grade so it may only dip in the mid to high 40s for third place.

I have Transformers: Rise of the Beasts falling around 55-60% in its third frame for fifth place with The Little Mermaid right behind Asteroid City in seventh.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

2. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $17.5 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

6. Asteroid City

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

7. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (June 16-18)

You can read a whole slew of think pieces as to why The Flash failed so badly in its debut. I had it making $83.2 million. It… um… didn’t. The DCEU title earned an unthinkable $55 million marking a sizable disappointment for Warner Bros. Here’s a figure I can’t stop thinking about. Twelve summers ago, notorious dud Green Lantern rolled out with $53 million. Adjusted for inflation, that’s better than The Flash. Ouch.

If it weren’t for the paragraph above, there would likely be more think pieces about Elemental not connecting with audiences. The Pixar animated feature was second with just $29.6 million. I was on target with a $30.6 million prediction. On the heels of Lightyear flopping last summer, this is two under performers in a row for the Disney property.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was third with $27 million, in range with my $27.6 million call. The three-week tally is $279 million and, per above, I see it leaping to first yet again.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts tumbled 66% in weekend #2 with $20.6 million (I said $21.8 million). The ten-day take is $101 million.

The Little Mermaid rounded out the top five with $11 million, falling below my $13.8 million forecast. The Disney live-action remake has made $253 million thus far in its four weeks.

Finally, horror spoof The Blackening couldn’t translate positive reviews to brisk business. It was sixth with $6 million compared to my $7.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

After premiering to mixed reactions at the Cannes Film Festival last month, Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expands nationwide on June 23rd. The auteur’s distinctive mix of dry humor and drama looks to be in high supply and same goes for his impressive sprawling cast. This time around it includes plenty of Anderson regulars and some newbies. The list boasts Jason Schwartzman, Scarlett Johansson, Tom Hanks, Jeffrey Wright, Tilda Swinton, Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Adrien Brody, Liev Schreiber, Hope Davis, Steve Park, Rupert Friend, Maya Hawke, Steve Carell, Matt Dillon, Hong Chau, Willem Dafoe, Margot Robbie, Tony Revolori, and Jeff Goldblum.

With a 74% Rotten Tomatoes rating, this is far from the peak of critical acclaim for the filmmaker. I doubt this approaches the $59 million domestic gross that 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel made in 2014 (his best earner). Yet this should eclipse predecessor The French Dispatch from October 2021. It took in just $16 million (this was also during theatrical COVID challenges).

City rolls out June 16th in six venues. I imagine it’ll have one of the biggest per theater averages of 2023. That doesn’t necessarily translate to impressive numbers when it expands between the coasts a week later. I’m skeptical that it manages $10 million.

Asteroid City opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my No Hard Feelings prediction, click here:

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction

No Hard Feelings Box Office Prediction

Jennifer Lawrence enters new genre territory with No Hard Feelings on June 23rd. The raunchy comedy casts the Oscar winner as a down on her luck Uber driver hired to teach a 19-year-old (Andrew Barth Feldman) the birds and bees. Gene Stupnitsky, who made the 2019 sleeper hit Good Boys, directs. Costars include Matthew Broderick, Laura Benanti, Natalie Morales, Scott MacArthur, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach.

It’s been a minute since Lawrence has graced the big screen. She was in the supporting cast as Mystique for Dark Phoenix four years ago, but you have to go back five years to Red Sparrow since her last headlining multiplex appearance. Her last two features (Don’t Look Up, Causeway) went the streaming route. Audiences are accustomed to seeing her in action flicks and dramas so this is certainly a test.

As I’ve mentioned a lot over the past few years, it’s a challenge for original comedies to break out. Plenty of viewers may simply wait until it’s ready for home consumption. If this had come out at the height of Lawrence’s bankability, I might be offering a different outlook.

Sony Pictures won’t like this comp, but Rough Night with Scarlett Johansson was another example of a popular actress branching out to this type of movie. Debuting in June six years ago, the result was a soft $8 million start. I’ll say this gets over that figure, but not by too much.

No Hard Feelings opening weekend prediction: $11.7 million

For my Asteroid City prediction, click here:

Asteroid City Box Office Prediction

June 16-18 Box Office Predictions

A trio of newcomers hits multiplexes this weekend with the much-publicized DCEU adventure The Flash, Pixar’s Elemental, and horror spoof The Blackening. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction
Elemental Box Office Prediction
The Blackening Box Office Prediction

There’s little question that The Flash will bolt to #1. The question is with how much. While I don’t see it reaching nine figures, I do believe $80-90 million is within reach. It is worth noting that fresh tracking shows it could fall short of that number so keep an eye on my blog this week to see if I maintain my rosy outlook.

I don’t have a flowery vision for how Elemental will perform. After Pixar experienced a high-profile flop last summer with Lightyear, their latest could find itself in a battle with fellow animated pic Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (in its third frame) for #2. I’ll give Elemental the slight benefit of the doubt, but not by much.

Spider-Verse should only drop a spot because I believe it’ll see around a 50% fall. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts significantly exceeded my projection (more on that below). Yet it could dip in the mid 60s and that would mean a slide from 1st to 4th.

The Little Mermaid should round out the top five with a 40% drop and that brings us to The Blackening. The scary parody is reported to release in only about 1800 venues and that could limit the potential. I’ll say it doesn’t hit $10 million and is in sixth.

And with that, here’s how I envision that top 6:

1. The Flash

Predicted Gross: $83.2 million

2. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

4. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million

5. The Little Mermaid

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

6. The Blackening

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (June 9-11)

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts couldn’t match the $100M+ earnings of early franchise entries. However, it did blast past my prediction with $61 million compared to my measly $42.2 million call. That’s on the top end of its anticipated range and, like other Transformers pics, it should perform well overseas. There might just be a little juice left in the series.

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse had a sturdy hold of 54% in its sophomore weekend with $55.5 million, a bit under my $58.4 million forecast. The acclaimed sequel has amassed $225 million in ten days.

The Little Mermaid was third with $23.1 million (on target with my $22.5 million take) for $229 million in three weeks.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 was fourth with $7.2 million (I said $6.6 million) for an overall haul of $335 million.

Finally, The Boogeyman held up stronger in weekend #2 that I assumed with $7.1 million. I went lower at $5.8 million. The two-week tally is a so-so $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate would love to see The Blackening post Scary Movie style numbers when it debuts June 16th. That’s probably wishful thinking. The horror parody comes from Tim Story, who directed Barbershop, 2005 and 2007’s Fantastic Four pics, and the two Ride Along action comedies. Grace Byers, Jermaine Fowler, Melvin Gregg, X Mayo, Dewayne Perkins (who co-scripted), Antoinette Robertson, Sinqua Walls, Jay Pharoah, and Yvonne Orji are among the cast.

When this screened at the Toronto Film Festival way back in September, early word-of-mouth was pretty encouraging. That said, comedies in general have failed to cash in over the past several years. Over the Memorial Day weekend, both The Machine and About My Father didn’t break out.

The Blackening could surprise if African-American audiences and horror fans turn out. If they do, an opening of over $10 million could be achievable. Given the genre’s struggles, I’ll put it under. Another limiting factor could be the reported smallish screen count of 1800 venues.

The Blackening opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my The Flash prediction, click here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction

For my Elemental prediction, click here:

Elemental Box Office Prediction

Elemental Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hopes the elements are there for a hit when Elemental debuts on June 16th. The 27th feature from the studio comes from director Peter Sohn, who made a rare Pixar disappointment in 2015’s The Good Dinosaur. Voiceover artists include Leah Lewis, Mamoudou Athie, Ronnie del Carmen, Shila Ommi, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Catherine O’Hara, Joe Pera, and Matt Yang King.

Four years ago, Toy Story 4 took in over $400 million domestically. It’s been a rather unimpressive run for the Mouse Factory’s nearly 30-year-old production company since. Onward debuted to $39 million and that figure was likely low since it opened in March of 2020 just as COVID shutdowns were beginning. Soul, Luca, and Turning Red went the Disney Plus route due to the pandemic. Last summer’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a $50 million premiere and $118 million eventual stateside gross (well under expectations).

I don’t see Elemental reversing the downturn. Some youngsters will be preoccupied with The Flash or maybe they’ll go see Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse again. Reviews won’t get audiences to rush out either as the Rotten Tomatoes is 63% (low for Pixar).

Add all that up and I think this will be lucky to get past $35 million.

Elemental opening weekend prediction: $30.6 million

For my The Flash prediction, click here:

The Flash Box Office Prediction

For my The Blackening prediction, click here:

The Blackening Box Office Prediction

The Flash Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/13): I’m revised my prediction down from $90.2 million to $83.2 million**

Warner Bros hopes for the 13th DCEU picture is lucky at the box office as The Flash bolts into multiplexes on June 16th. It’s been a bumpy ride to the big screen between COVID delays and Ezra Miller (playing the title character) and their personal troubles. Andy Muschietti, who made the two It chapters, directs. Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck reprise their roles as Batman with Sasha Calle debuting as Supergirl. Costars include Michael Shannon (reprising his General Zod role from Man of Steel), Ron Livingston, Maribel Verdú, Kiersey Clemons, Antje Traue, and Jeremy Irons. Expect other noteworthy cameos.

The DCEU has had a rough go lately. Their last two titles, Black Adam and Shazam! Fury of the Gods, were significant financial disappointments. James Gunn and Peter Safran were recently tapped to run the struggling franchise. The Flash hopes to right the ship. The first four entries in the series (Man of Steel, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) all grossed $100 million plus in their debut weekends. The next eight movies did not with the second Shazam! only taking in $30 million out of the gate.

Reviews are fairly positive with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score at press time. If you subscribe to the all publicity is good publicity notion, the negative ink surrounding its lead shouldn’t hinder its potential (and the studio is keeping Miller off the circuit). While The Flash isn’t as iconic a character as the Caped Crusader, the reemergence of Keaton as that character could draw in viewers for a nostalgia fix (it’s been over 30 years since he’s donned the Batsuit).

A best case scenario is The Flash achieving the second best start of 2023 and topping the $120 million that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse achieved. The worst case result could be not reaching nine figures like those first four superhero tales. That might be the case and it could end up falling outside the top five openings of 2023 (under the $95 million of The Little Mermaid). My forecast puts this on pace with the $93 million that Justice League made back in 2017 (where Miller first fleshed out this character).

The Flash opening weekend prediction: $83.2 million

For my Elemental prediction, click here:

Elemental Box Office Prediction

For my The Blackening prediction, click here:

The Blackening Box Office Prediction