After two decades plus, Ridley Scott reunites with Gladiator thespian Joaquin Phoenix in Napoleon. It rolls out November 22nd over the long holiday weekend. The historical epic about the legendary French commander costars Vanessa Kirby and Tahar Rahim. The Apple TV production is exclusive to theaters.
Once seen as an Oscar hopeful, the review embargo pretty much shut that down (save for perhaps some tech nods) as it stands at 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. With reactions all over the map (including a few which say it works best as a comedy), Napoleon will attempt to stand apart as an option for adults looking for Thanksgiving entertainment.
That strategy could mean a three-day gross in the high teens to low 20s as it hopes for $30 million or higher from Wednesday to Sunday. I’ll put Napoleon just short of that and certainly stronger than Scott’s 2021 box office bomb The Last Duel.
Napoleon opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Update (11/20): Middling reviews have led to a downgrade in my estimate to low 30s for the three-day and mid 40s for the five.
Disney seeks a return to a Thanksgiving tradition by having an animated offering in the top spot with the release of Wish on November 22nd. Chris Buck (who co-helmed the Frozen features) and Fawn Veerasunthorn direct with a voice cast including Ariana DeBose, Chris Pine, Alan Tudyk, Angelique Cabral, Victor Garber, Harvey Guillén, Evan Peters, Ramy Youssef, and Jon Rudnitsky.
The musical fantasy would love to replicate the performance of the Frozen entries, but would certainly settle for the earnings of pre-COVID Turkey weekend offerings. In 2016, Moana opened to $56 million from Friday to Monday and $82 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday of the holiday frame. Coco in 2017 started off with $50 million over the three-day and $72 million for the five-day. In 2018, Ralph Breaks the Internet took in $56 million from Friday to Monday and $84 million over the extended holiday.
On the other hand, the Mouse House wants to avoid a Good Dinosaur level performance from 2015. It made $39 million for the three-day and $55 million with the extras.
My hunch is that Wish is granted a performance closest to Coco levels while not quite reaching those figures. I’ll project a mid to high 40s output over the regular weekend and mid to high 60s when factoring in those extra days when kiddos are out of school.
Wish opening weekend prediction: $32.2 million (Friday to Monday); $46.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
A quartet of new titles enter the pre-Thanksgiving frame marketplace with prequel The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes expected to lead the way and DreamWorks Animation’s threequel Trolls Band Together in the runner-up spot. We also have Eli Roth’s slasher flick Thanksgiving and Taika Waititi’s sports dramedy Next Goal Wins out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
All four Hunger Games titles (released from 2012-15) debuted to over $100 million, but that streak is sure to end with Songbirds. It may only fly to around $50 million and I’ve got it achieving just a smidge under that.
Barring a significant Hunger underperformance, Trolls should settle for #2 in the mid 20s as it hopes to leg out impressively in future holiday weekends.
The Marvels experienced a historically low start for an MCU offering (more on that below). With a weak B Cinemascore grade, it could be headed for a catastrophic fall in the mid 60s or more in its sophomore frame (similar to The Flash this summer). That’s not the comparison it wanted and it likely means a third place showing.
I’ll say Thanksgiving carves up a little over $10 million and that would put it in fourth. The news is bleaker for the frequently delayed Next Goal Wins as it failed to generate awards buzz on the fest circuit and seems to have little heat attached to it. I’m putting it in sixth behind Five Nights at Freddy’s in weekend #4.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes
Predicted Gross: $48.3 million
2. Trolls Band Together
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million
3. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
4. Thanksgiving
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. Next Goal Wins
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (November 10-12)
It was indeed the worst of times for the Marvel Cinematic Universe as The Marvels had the lowest debut of all 33 franchise entries dating back to the summer of 2008. Captain Marvel and team made off with a mere $46.1 million, right on pace with my $46.3 million (my projection kept dwindling in the week leading up to its premiere). That’s the worst MCU kickoff by a pretty wide margin as the previous record was held by 2008’s The Incredible Hulk at $55 million. A series that once seemed indestructible is no longer as comic book movies have had a tough 2023 in multiplexes. As mentioned, the B Cinemascore indicates crowds aren’t digging the product.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, was second with $8.9 million (a bit ahead of my $7.4 million take). The three-week tally is up to $127 million.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour was third with $6 million as took a heftier drop (over 50%) that I figured in its fifth weekend. The record setting concert pic total is $172 million.
In a surprising development, Priscilla was fourth in its sophomore go-round. The biopic increased its theater count and fell only 5% to $4.7 million for $12 million overall. I incorrectly had it outside the top five.
Killers of the Flower Moon was fifth with $4.5 million in weekend four. My guess? $4.5 million for $59 million in the bank.
The Holdovers expanded to nearly 800 screens and the Oscar hopeful made $3.2 million for sixth (I said $3 million).
Finally, faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem got off to a rougher journey than I forecasted. It was seventh with $2.4 million and I thought it would double that figure with $4.8 million.
On November 17th, the true life sports dramedy Next Goal Wins finally kicks it in theaters after numerous delays. Filmed about four years ago, Taika Waititi directs with Michael Fassbender (currently pulling double duty in David Fincher’s The Killer on Netflix) as a down of his luck soccer coach assigned to American Samoa. Costars include Oscar Kightley, Kaimana, David Fane, Rachel House, Beulah Koale, Will Arnett, and Elisabeth Moss. Arnett’s parts, by the way, were reshot after the studio replaced Armie Hammer with him.
Unlike the filmmaker’s Jojo Rabbit from 2019, Goal did not generate any awards buzz after it hit the festival circuit. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a blah 51% as it arrives during the increasingly crowded November season.
It certainly seems like this will get lost in the shuffle and I’m not even confident this earns $5 million for its start.
Next Goal Wins opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songsbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Sony is hoping there is leftover goodwill from a mock trailer 16 years ago when Thanksgiving arrives in theaters November 17th. The slasher film is from Eli Roth and back in 2007, he helmed a fake ad for Thanksgiving at the beginning of Grindhouse. As you’ll recall, Roth shot half of that movie via Planet Terror while Quentin Tarantino was responsible for Death Proof.
The feature length scare fest stars Patrick Dempsey, Addison Rae, Milo Manheim, Jalen Thomas Brooks, Rick Hoffman, and Gina Gershon. The Black Friday set tale is out a week before the holiday. It could be a stretch that mass audiences will want gore with their turkey. Another demerit could be the fact that Grindhouse simply isn’t very well-known (it didn’t reach near the box office levels of Tarantino’s normal offerings).
Thanksgiving might be fortunate to serve up double digits and I’ll project it falls just over that mark.
Thanksgiving opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
The computer animated creatures that first hit the screen seven years ago are back again in Trolls Band Together on November 17th. The DreamWorks musical comedy comes from Walt Dohrn, who co-directed the 2016 original and solely helmed the 2020 sequel. Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Icona Pop, Anderson Paak, Ron Funches, Kenan Thompson, and Kunal Nayyar reprise their vocal roles. They are joined by Eric André, Kid Cudi, Daveed Diggs, Camila Cabello, Amy Schumer, and RuPaul.
Featuring tracks from Kendrick and Cabello and the first NSYNC track in over two decades, Together hopes to bring in a large crowd. The first Trolls opened to a better than expected $46 million with an eventual $153 million domestic haul. Yet any clues for sequel demand were made complicated by follow-up Trolls World Tour. It went the VOD route due to coming out in April 2020 as movie theaters were shuttered by the COVID pandemic. There are estimates that it took in around $150 million in rentals.
Where does that leave our third song and dance fest? I certainly think this won’t match the mid 40s debut from 2016. This seems likely to start slower though it could have a healthy hold in its second frame over the long Thanksgiving weekend.
I’ll say mid to high 20s to possibly low 30s is where this Band begins as it hopes for pleasing encores over the holidays.
Trolls Band Together opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million
For my The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes prediction, click here:
Serving as a prequel to the four films that generated nearly $3 billion worldwide, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes is out November 17th. The dystopian adventure returns Francis Lawrence (who made the second through fourth editions) to the director’s seat. Tom Blyth (as a younger version of Donald Sutherland’s Snow), Rachel Zegler, Peter Dinklage, Hunter Schafer, Josh Andrés Rivera, Jason Schwartzman, and Viola Davis lead the cast.
Arriving eight years after Jennifer Lawrence’s Katniss concluded her boffo business, Snakes is expected to have the lowest start of the Games… by a wide margin. Based on the 2020 novel from Suzanne Collins, this series may not be the phenomenon that it was onscreen from 2012-15. That quartet of titles all made over $100 million during their opening weekends with 2013’s Catching Fire setting the high mark at $158 million.
Early word-of-mouth is pretty decent, but this may earn about half of what 2015’s Mockingjay: Part 2 accomplished out of the gate ($102 million). If you’re setting the over/under at $50 million (which is reasonable), I’d suggest the under (if not by much).
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes opening weekend prediction: $48.3 million
For my Trolls Band Together prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update II (11/08): I am lowering my The Marvels prediction from $62.3 million to $46.3 million and that gives it the lowest MCU premiere ever.
**Blogger’s Update (11/07): It turns out Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is indeed staying in theaters and I’m putting it in second with an anticipated drop in the mid 30s
The Marvel Cinematic Universe should have no trouble hitting #1 again with The Marvels, but the premiere is expected to be well on the low end of the now 33 pics in the franchise. We also have the faith-based musical Journey to Bethlehem and the wide expansion of Oscar hopeful The Holdovers out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
As of now, I have The Marvels having the third lowest MCU opening in its decade and a half run. It could possibly have the smallest of them all if it debuts below the $55 million that The Incredible Hulk (the second feature of the bunch) started with in 2008. **Keep an eye on this post through Thursday to see if my projection dwindles.
Five Nights at Freddy’s, after two weeks atop the charts, should slide to second. Its sophomore frame saw a gigantic plummet (more on that below). The third weekend shouldn’t be as dramatic a fall, but the 60-65% range is certainly possible.
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, per a previous announcement, is allegedly finished with its box office run after amassing $166 million domestically and easily setting concert pic records. That’s why you won’t find it in my projected five. If that dynamic changes, I’d place it in third or probably even second.
The 3-5 spots, therefore, should be a mix of Killers of the Flower Moon, Journey to Bethlehem, and The Holdovers and you could make decent arguments for the order. I’ve got it close.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. The Marvels
Predicted Gross: $46.3 million
2. Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
3. Five Nights at Freddy’s
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
4. Journey to Bethlehem
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
6. The Holdovers
Predicted Gross: $3 million
Box Office Results (November 3-5)
November began with a whimper with the worst frame of 2023 thus far. As you may recall, this was the weekend Dune: Part Two was supposed to come out before its pushback to spring 2024.
That left Five Nights at Freddy’s in first place despite a gargantuan 76% drop to $19 million. I was more generous at $27.6 million. Even with its clearly front loaded business, the PG-13 horror flick (which is also available on Peacock) has delivered $113 million in its first ten days of release.
With scant competition in the marketplace, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour eased just 12% for second place with $13.5 million. That remarkable hold placed it well above my $8.3 million take. As mentioned, it has finished (?) its run at $166 million as streamers mount a bidding war for the rights.
Killers of the Flower Moon also held better than I figured for third in its third weekend with $6.8 million. I went with $5.8 million. The Oscar contender has taken in $52 million.
Priscilla performed respectably in fourth with $5 million, besting my $3.9 million call. The biopic had a similar per theater average to Ms. Swift’s fourth frame gross. The performance represents earnings at the top end of its anticipated range.
I incorrectly didn’t make a call for Radical, the well-reviewed dramedy with Eugenio Derbez. It rounded out the top five with $2.6 million on just over 400 screens. That gave it the highest average of any movie in the top ten.
My #5 pick was After Death at $3.2 million. Yet it was all the way down in 8th (behind The Exorcist: Believer and PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie) with $2 million after its 60% slide.
Finally, I had the Meg Ryan rom com What Happens Later (a phrase not used in many years) making $1.7 million. It came in slightly below that at $1.5 million for ninth position.
After playing the festival circuit at Telluride and Toronto and generating impressive grosses in limited release, The Holdovers expands on November 10th. The dramedy reunites director Alexander Payne with his Sideways lead Paul Giamatti. The supporting cast includes Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Dominic Sessa, and Carrie Preston.
With a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score, the pic is hoping to score a handful of nominations come Oscar time. This past weekend, The Holdovers posted an estimated $600,000 on 64 screens for a nearly $10k venue average.
A theater count in the 800 range is expected this frame. If The Holdovers can manage an average of around $4k, that would give it around $3 million and that’s what I’m counting on.
The Holdovers opening weekend expansion prediction: $3 million
Production company Affirm Films is hoping faith-based viewers make a destination trip to Journey to Bethlehem on November 10th. The live-action musical marks the directorial debut of Adam Anders with a cast including Fiona Palomo, Milo Manheim, Lecrae, and Antonio Banderas.
Slated to open on approximately 1800 screens, Bethlehem is a tricky one to project. Pics catering to a Christian audience can certainly rise above expectations. Yet I suspect this one (if it gets solid word-of-mouth) could play steadily throughout the holiday season and maybe not post an overly impressive opening.
Recent Affirm titles include Big George Foreman, Overcomer, and Paul, Apostle of Christ. None of them opened to over $10 million. I’ll project this doesn’t either and it may not make half of that, but we’ll say how it legs out.
Journey to Bethlehem opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
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