Tag: box office predictions

The Fall Guy Box Office Prediction

For decades in Hollywood, the first weekend of May (or occasionally last frame of April) has served as the official start of cinematic summer. Ryan Gosling’s character in The Fall Guy might have worked on some of those kickoff projects as his stuntman title character gets top billing here. Emily Blunt co-headlines the action comedy from director David Leitch (Atomic Blonde, Deadpool 2, Bullet Train). Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Winston Duke, Hannah Waddingham, and Stephanie Hsu provide supporting work.

This Universal project (loosely based on the 1980s TV show) finds the studio in an unfamiliar position. The summer season has begun in many recent years with a Disney/MCU blockbuster getting the financial ball rolling (last year it was Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3).

Obviously The Fall Guy won’t reach MCU figures, but it has a lot going for it. Gosling is hot off Barbie and a recent SNL hosting stint that generated lots of buzz. Blunt is coming off reigning BP winner Oppenheimer. The Barbenheimer duo’s teaming initially debuted at South by Southwest to loud buzz and solid reviews (the RT score is 90%).

I do believe a $50 million opening is achievable but unlikely. Low 40s to mid 40s is also reasonable while mid to high 30s might be where it lands. Regardless I think this will leg out impressively throughout May.

The Fall Guy opening weekend prediction: $38.3 million

For my Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace re-release prediction, click here:

Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace Re-Release Box Office Prediction

For my Tarot prediction, click here:

Tarot Box Office Prediction

April 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Zendaya hopes to serve up healthy box office numbers as her sports drama Challengers debuts this weekend. We also have the faith-based drama Unsung Hero out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Challengers Box Office Prediction
Unsung Hero Box Office Prediction

With impressive reviews and Zendaya hot off Dune: Part Two, Challengers should face no challenge in topping the charts. $20M+ is within the realm of possibility, but so is low teens. I’m in the middle of that range.

The numbers for slots 2-6 should be close. Unsung Hero is of a genre that can often surprise. However, my sub $6M projection puts it in fourth.

A mid 40s drop for Civil War would drop it to second after two weeks in first. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could hold in third with Abigail falling to fifth in its sophomore frame after a lackluster start (more on that below). That leaves The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare rounding out the top six after its mediocre premiere.

Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:

1. Challengers

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

3. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $6 million

4. Unsung Hero

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. Abigail

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

6. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (April 19-21)

Civil War managed to stay at #1 in its second weekend despite a 56% plummet. Alex Garland’s dystopian action flick made $11.1 million, close to my $11.8 million prediction. The two-week gross is $44 million.

While the rollout didn’t totally suck, Abigail‘s #2 posting lacked bite. The vampire story scored solid reviews, but started on the lowest end of its anticipated range with $10.2 million. I gave it a bit more credit with a $13.1 million projection.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third with $9.5 million, just ahead of my $8.7 million call. The monster mashup has amassed $171 million after four weeks.

Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare took in a ho-hum $8.9 million for fourth position. It did manage to outdo my $7.6 million forecast.

Crunchyroll’s latest anime offering Spy x Family Code: White rounded out the top five with an unremarkable $4.8 million. That’s below the studio’s latest domestic outputs and well under my $9.8 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Unsung Hero Box Office Prediction

Country star Joel Smallbone cowrites, co-directs, and plays his own father in Unsung Hero. The faith and factually based drama is out April 26th as the musician shares screenwriting and filmmaking duties with Richard Ramsey. Smallbone is a member of the Christian pop band For King & Country as this recounts his upbringing in Tennessee after moving from Australia. Daisy Betts, Kirrilee Berger, Jonathan Jackson, Lucas Black, and Cameron Cameron Buge are among the supporting cast.

The Lionsgate release is out stateside a month before the Australian premiere. Lionsgate hopes fans of the band make the theatrical trek and that brings us to my usual caveat. Faith-based pics are tough to project. They can easily exceed expectations, but they’ve been known to underwhelm from time to time (for instance Ordinary Angels didn’t match my prediction a few weeks ago).

I’ve yet to see a theater count so my projection could change when I see that figure. A high single digits start (or even low double digits) would easily put it in the runner-up spot. Mid single digits is what I’m forecasting and that might put it anywhere from 2-6 depending on how holdovers perform as April closes out. My current number has it rounding out the high five or being 6th instead of being 2nd.

Unsung Hero opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million

For my Challengers prediction, click here:

Challengers Box Office Prediction

Challengers Box Office Prediction

Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.

Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.

I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.

Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million

For my Unsung Hero prediction, click here:

Unsung Hero Box Office Prediction

April 19-21 Box Office Predictions

Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:

Abigail Box Office Prediction
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction
Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.

Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.

As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.

Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:

1. Abigail

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million

2. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Spy x Family Code: White

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $8.7 million

5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (April 12-14)

Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.

Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.

Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.

Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare isn’t the only spy action comedy out next weekend. Crunchyroll has the Japanese animated variety of the genre hitting screens with Spy x Family Code: White from director Takashi Katagirl.

An expansion of the anime TV show, Spy came out in Japan around Christmastime and it has earned over $40 million overseas. I haven’t seen a theater count yet, but recent Crunchyroll distributions roll out to around 1700-1900 venues.

There’s a consistency in their premieres. 2022’s One Piece Film: Red took in $9.3 million while last year’s Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village came hit $10.1 million. In February, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training debuted to $11.5 million.

Based on that, high single digits or low double digits certainly seems like the way to go. My forecast actually puts it above the Ungentlemanly gang.

Spy x Family Code: White opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million

For my Abigail prediction, click here:

Abigail Box Office Prediction

For my The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare prediction, click here:

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction

Guy Ritchie is back in action comedy mode when The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare arrives in theaters April 19th. The WWII era pic stars Henry Cavill with supporting work from Eiza González, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Alex Pettyfer, Hero Fiennes Tiffin, and Cary Elwes.

The writer/director is no stranger to the genre. On a side note, Ritchie has been a busy man as Warfare marks his sixth feature in as many years. Similarly marketed 2019’s The Gentleman opened in line with expectations at just over $10 million. On the other hand, Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre stalled with a mere $3.1 million in its start.

I suspect this may open in between two Ritchie projects in the mid single digits.

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my Abigail prediction, click here:

Abigail Box Office Prediction

For my Spy x Family Code: White prediction, click here:

Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

Abigail Box Office Prediction

Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett, makers of Ready or Not and the last two Scream installments, are in vampiric mode with Abigail on April 19th. Reimagining 1936’s Dracula’s Daughter, the horror flick stars Melissa Barrera (also of the latest Scream entries), Dan Stevens, Alisha Weir, Kathryn Newton, William Catlett, Kevin Durand, the late Angus Cloud, Matthew Goode, and Giancarlo Esposito.

Genre fans have had plenty to feast on in 2024. Just last weekend, we saw The First Omen struggle to bring audiences in with an opening under $10 million despite solid reviews. Abigail is generating appreciative notices as well with a current 82% RT rating.

I suspect Abigail will cross $10 million, but $20 million (or even $15 million) seems like a bridge too far.

Abigail opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million

For my The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare prediction, click here:

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare Box Office Prediction

For my Spy x Family Code: White prediction, click here:

Spy x Family Code: White Box Office Prediction

April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Civil War Box Office Prediction

In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.

That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).

And with that, my forecast for the top 5:

1. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18 million

2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (April 5-7)

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.

Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.

The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.

Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Civil War Box Office Prediction

Civil War breaks out in theaters on April 12th after a buzzy premiere at South by Southwest last month. The dystopian action flick from Alex Garland imagines a nation deeply divided in what should be timely programming in this election year. Kirsten Dunst, Wagner Moura, Cailee Spaeny, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Nick Offerman, and Jesse Plemons are among the ensemble.

This marks Garland’s fourth directorial feature after the acclaimed Ex Machina from 2015 and 2018’s Annihilation and 2022’s Men which generated considerably more mixed reviews. Notices for War are strong with a 92% RT rating. The A24 release looks to set an all-time best opening for the distributor by topping Hereditary‘s $13.6 million debut.

That record should be set, but by how much is the question for the $50 million budgeted project. Some estimates have this at $20 million or more. I’m being a tad more conservative in the high teens.

Civil War opening weekend prediction: $18 million