Tag: box office predictions

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

Disney/Pixar hope for a reversal of recent fortunes when Inside Out 2 arrives in theaters June 14th. A sequel to the 2015 megahit Animated Feature Oscar winner, Kelsey Mann takes over directorial duties from Pete Docter. Returning voices include Amy Poehler, Phyllis Smith, Lewis Black, Diane Lane, and Kyle MacLachlan. Replacing Bill Hader from the original is Tony Hale while Liza Lapira, Maya Hawke, Ayo Edebiri, Adéle Exarchopoulos, Paul Walter Hauser, and Kensington Tallman as the now teenage Riley join the cast.

Nine summers ago, the original made $90 million in its premiere frame with an eventual domestic tally of $356 million. That stands as the fifth largest opening of all time for Pixar and the sixth heftiest overall final take.

As mentioned, the studio has dealt with its own emotional rollercoasters as of late. 2022’s Lightyear was a high profile flop with a lowly (for Pixar) $118 million total. Last summer, Elemental fared better with $154 million while that’s still a ways from their typical numbers.

This sequel should brighten their emotions. Part 1 is well-regarded and family audiences should be primed for a second helping. Estimates have this making around what the predecessor accomplished out of the gate. It might manage slightly more. Each Toy Story, for instance, improved with the first weekend figures. Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory dwarfed the starts of their precursors.

I’ll go glass half full and say this just manages to outdo the original while not reaching nine digits in its first three days.

Inside Out 2 opening weekend prediction: $92.4 million

June 7-9 Box Office Predictions

Sony Pictures and theater owners are desperately looking for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence’s Bad Boys: Ride or Die to inject some life into the box office this weekend. We also have The Watchers, the horror debut from Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction
The Watchers Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Ride revving up to the same numbers that predecessor Bad Boys for Life managed in January 2020, my mid to high 40s projection puts it in line with its somewhat muted expectations.

As I’ve been mentioning frequently in 2024, scary movies have struggled even managing $10M+ as of late for their starts. I do believe The Watchers gets there, but not by a lot for a so-so second place showing.

After rising to #1 (more on that below), The Garfield Movie should drop to third while IF appears poised for a one spot slide to fourth. That’s because Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga is bound to see a larger percentage decline. It may even fall from second to sixth depending on how Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes holds up.

And with that, my top 6 take on the frame ahead:

1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $47.3 million

2. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (May 31-June 2)

The woes continued at multiplexes with no major new releases even sniffing $5 million. It’s a bit of a cinematic litter box right now and The Garfield Movie elevated to first with $14 million. That’s ahead of my $12 million projection for its sophomore outing as it’s up to $51 million.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted 59%, as I figured, to second with $10.7 million. That’s on target with my $11.3 million take as the prequel has amassed a mere $49 million in its two weeks.

IF held up nicely in third with $10.5 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week gross of $80 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $8.9 million, in range with my $8.5 million call. After four weeks, the sequel is perched at $140 million.

I incorrectly didn’t have estimates for The Fall Guy or The Strangers: Chapter 1. The former was fifth with $4.1 million for $80 million after five frames while the latter took in $3.7 million in sixth for $28 million after three weeks.

That’s because I had Japan’s animated Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle in fifth place, but it was seventh with $3.6 million. I was darn close for the forecast with $3.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

Horror flicks have seen mostly subpar returns in 2024 and the offspring of a genre mainstay attempts to turn that around with The Watchers on June 7th. Ishana Night Shyamalan, daughter of M., makes her directorial debut with the supernatural tale. Based on a novel by A.M. Shine, it stars Dakota Fanning, Georgina Campbell, Oliver Finnegan, and Olwen Fouéré.

Getting to an opening in the low teens has been a challenge for scary movies in the last few weeks. Recent examples include Abigail which made just over $10 million and The Strangers: Chapter 1 with $12 million.

Perhaps the family name could push this over $13 million. Dad serves as a producer and has his own project Trap out in August. I’ll say this doesn’t quite reach the teen and just clears double digits.

The Watchers opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million

For my Bad Boys: Ride or Die prediction, click here:

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Box Office Prediction

Nearly four and a half years ago, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence were riding high with Bad Boys for Life. The third entry in the buddy cop franchise that began nearly 30 years ago set series best marks with $73 million over the four-day MLK frame in January 2020. It ended up with just over $200 million domestically.

And then things got weird. Life was the last mega-grosser before the pandemic hit and stalled the industry for many months. Smith, meanwhile, became embroiled in the infamous Oscar slap controversy two years later with Chris Rock. The directors of part 3 – Adil El Arbi and Bilall Fallah – followed Life up with Batgirl which Warner Bros shockingly decided to shelve for eternity.

So it kind of feels like there’s a lot riding on Bad Boys: Ride or Die when it opens June 7th. Smith and Lawrence are back alongside Joe Pantoliano, Vanessa Hudgens, Alexander Ludwig, Paola Núñez, Jacob Scipio, and DJ Khaled. The Batgirl makers return as well. Newcomers to part 4 include Tiffany Haddish, Eric Dane, Ioan Gruffudd, Rhea Seehorn, Melanie Liburd, and Tasha Smith (pulling an Aunt Viv and replacing Theresa Randle as Lawrence’s wife).

Bad Boys hopes to shake up a summer season where plenty of titles have fallen below expectations. This is also the first test of Smith’s star power post slap. I do not expect it to match the earnings of its predecessor. Part 3 took in $62 million for the three-day portion of its premiere. Sony would probably be satisfied with that and it would quell any “Smith’s career is dead” chatter.

I’m estimating a start that might not totally quell that conversation in the mid to late 40s.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die opening weekend prediction: $47.3 million

For my The Watchers prediction, click here:

The Watchers Box Office Prediction

May 31-June 2 Box Office Predictions

The closeout of May and dawn of June at the box office will be even rougher than the Memorial Day weekend… and that weekend was rough at multiplexes (more on that below). The anime sports pic Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle is the only significant new release as it aims for a top five showing where the #1 pic could struggle to top double digits. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle Box Office Prediction

With my mid single digits projection (it could go higher), I have Dumpster placing fifth.

There could be a photo finish for #1 after a frame in which the new holiday pictures bombed. I have Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga falling in the high 50s after its poor performance and The Garfield Movie dipping over 50%. That might give the tabby cat the (not exactly) bragging rights in 1st.

IF should hold in third with a smaller decline than the sophomore weekend competitors. Heck, it could contend for the top spot if Furiosa and Garfield go downhill even more. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is likely to hold in fourth and here’s how I have it all playing out:

1. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

3. IF

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. Haiyku!! The Dumpster Battle

Predicted Gross: $3.9 million

Box Office Results (May 24-27)

And now to the dumpster fire that just happened. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga managed to be first with $32.3 million over the Friday to Monday four-day expanded frame. That’s well below what predecessor Fury Road achieved some nine years ago and way under my $47.2 million prediction. **Please note that my percentage drops listed above are for the three-day Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend where this earned just $26.3 million.

The Garfield Movie also debuted on the lowest end of its anticipated range in second with $31.2 million compared to my $41.5 million take. Its B+ Cinemascore grade is subpar for a family feature (IF got an A) and I’m skeptical its legs will be sturdy.

IF fell to third in weekend #2 with $22.3 million, a tad ahead of my $20.6 million call. The two-week tally is $64 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $17.6 million (I said $18 million) as it inched up to $127 million. This is really the only significant success story of the summer thus far… or at least it’s generally performing in line with expectations.

The Fall Guy rounded out the top five with $7.9 million. I went lower at $5.8 million, but it’s only up to $74 million after four weeks.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 was sixth with $7 million (I said $5.6 million) as the low budget horror sequel is at $22 million.

Finally, Sight from Angel Studios struggled for eyeballs with $3.7 million in seventh. I thought it might get more with $5.3 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (05/30): Since it is only playing on just over 1000 screens, I am lowering my prediction from $6.5M to $3.9M

Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll hope fans of Japan’s manga TV series dive into Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle when it debuts this weekend. The animated sports tale stems from a show that ran from 2012 to 2020. Susumu Mitsunaka directs a voice cast that includes Ayumu Murase, Kaito Ishikawa, Yuki Kaji, and Yuichi Nakamura.

The distributor gets the most bang for its buck overseas as Battle is already the second highest grosser in Japan for 2024. Obviously stateside grosses will be considerably smaller. Crunchyroll’s titles have seen diminishing domestic unveilings as of late. It is also worth noting that they usually generate about 70% of their business in the first weekend.

In February of this year, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training did bring in $11.5 million and that was just over 2023 predecessor To the Swordsmith Village at $10.1 million. Outside of that franchise, One Piece Film: Red premiered with $9.3 million in November ’23 while Spy x Family Code: White stalled with $4.8 million just last month.

I’ll give Haikyu!! a mid to higher single digits opening.

Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million

May 24-27 Box Office Predictions

After an iffy start to the summer cinematic season, the industry hopes business heats up over Memorial Day weekend. We have George Miller’s franchise prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga looking to lead the way with the animated The Garfield Movie angling to post a strong second place showing. There’s also the faith-based biopic Sight from Angel Studios. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction
The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction
Sight Box Office Prediction

With mostly laudatory reviews (though not on the level of predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road), I’m estimating that Furiosa gets just under $50 million over the extended Friday to Monday frame. That would put in right in line with expectations.

Same goes for Chris Pratt’s vocal work as that orange tabby cat in The Garfield Movie. My low 40s forecast gives it a runner-up debut as this hopes to bring family audiences in for the next few weeks.

Speaking of families, they turned out on the lower end of the anticipated range for IF (more on that below). It was still a rather decent opening, but the competition from Garfield could sting a little. I still think manages a tad over $20 million for the holiday.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes should slide from 2nd to 4th in the mid teens to high teens region while slots 5-7 could be awfully close between The Fall Guy, Sight, and The Strangers: Chapter 1.

Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these figures are for Friday through Monday:

1. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga

Predicted Gross: $47.2 million

2. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $41.5 million

3. IF

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $18 million

5. The Fall Guy

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

6. The Strangers: Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

7. Sight

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 17-19)

As mentioned, John Krasinski’s IF with Ryan Reynolds certainly didn’t over perform and came in with a fine but unremarkable $33.7 million. I thought it would get a bit more with $38.3 million. The A Cinemascore grade could mean its legs will be sturdy. That said, competition will be fierce.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was second after a muscular opening last weekend with $25.4 million, just outdoing my $23.6 million prediction. The two-week total is $100 million.

The Strangers: Chapter 1 managed (barely) the largest horror unveiling of 2024 with a better than expected $11.8 million estimate. Considering its reported teensy budget, that’s a solid number and ahead of my $9.1 million call.

The Fall Guy fell to fourth with $8.3 million, in line with my $8 million projection. The three-week gross is $62 million.

Challengers rounded out the top five in weekend #4 and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. It has made $43 million overall.

They tried to make the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black a hit, but audiences said no (no no). It flopped in sixth with a mere $2.8 million compared to my more hopeful $4.5 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Sight Box Office Prediction

Angel Studios is hoping for more holiday luck in the form of Sight over the Memorial Day frame. Terry Chen stars as real-life figure Ming Wang, a Chinese immigrant who became a well-known eye surgeon in the United States. Andrew Wyatt directs. The supporting cast includes Greg Kinnear, Danni Wang, Raymond Ma, Bennet Wang, Jayden Zhang, Wai Ching Ho, and Fionnula Flanagan.

Last summer, the aforementioned distributor scored a major summer surprise via Sound of Freedom. Over the extended six-day July 4th weekend, it debuted to over $40 million with an eventual $184 million domestic total.

Follow-ups have brought in considerably less coin for Angel, which specialize in dramas with faith-based leanings. Last October, After Death premiered with just over $5 million. In December, The Shift came in with a little less than $5 million. Cabrini in March started with a tad over $7 million.

I’m eyeballing a similar prescription for Sight and maybe a little less comparatively. With an extra day of grosses, I think it gets over $5 million though not by much.

Sight opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

For my The Garfield Movie prediction, click here:

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.

The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.

This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.

For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.

The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

For my Sight prediction, click here:

Sight Box Office Prediction

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga Box Office Prediction

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga storms into theaters this Memorial Day weekend as it hopes to improve upon the numbers of its 2015 predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road. The fifth feature of a franchise that began in 1979, George Miller returns to the director’s chair and this is the first Max tale without Max (in the form of Mel Gibson or Tom Hardy). The prequel casts Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role that Charlize Theron played nine years back. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Alyla Browne, Tom Burke, Lachy Hulme, Nathan Jones, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.

With a reported budget of nearly $170 million, Warner Bros is banking on fruitful stateside returns and buoyant international results. Early signs are encouraging. Its Cannes premiere has produced an 88% RT score. While that’s not as high as Fury, word-of-mouth should be solid.

Back in 2015, Fury grossed $45 million in its mid-May opening slot en route to $153 million domestically. Furiosa will have the benefit of a four-day report due to the holiday. Hitting $50 million is achievable from Friday to Monday. I suspect it may slightly fall under that figure.

Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga opening weekend prediction: $47.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my The Garfield Movie prediction, click here:

The Garfield Movie Box Office Prediction

For my Sight prediction, click here:

Sight Box Office Prediction