Tag: box office predictions

July 5-7 Box Office Predictions

Inside Out 2 has been responsible for animation domination and kickstarting the summer season for the past three weeks. Now it’s time for a new sequel to take over as Despicable Me 4 debuts Wednesday and looks to rule the holiday frame. We also have Ti West’s horror trilogy capper MaXXXine out Friday. My detailed prediction posts on both can be accessed here:

Despicable Me 4 Box Office Prediction
MaXXXine Box Office Prediction

While not setting a franchise record like other follow-ups lately, I have Despicable Me 4 from Illumination Entertainment premiering in line with other entrees. That means a three-day near $80 million with over $125 million when counting Wednesday and Independence Day.

As for MaXXXine, my readers think I’m low. However, I’m struggling to see why it would debut too much higher than predecessors X and Pearl. I have it slated for a fifth place showing, but perhaps I’m not being generous enough.

Inside Out 2 will slide to second with perhaps a low to mid 40s percentage ease considering the Despicable competition. A Quiet Place: Day One may experience a 50-55% drop after its series best start (more on that below). The 4 slot (barring a MaXXXine over performance) should go to Bad Boys: Ride or Die with Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 in sixth after its so-so unveiling.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $32.6 million

3. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $24 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

5. MaXXXine

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

6. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million

Box Office Results (June 28-30)

Despite the aforementioned loud opening from A Quiet Place: Day One, Disney/Pixar ruled the roost for a third weekend with Inside Out 2. It took in $57.5 million (just below my $61.5 million prediction) for a three-week haul of $469 million. The sequel also crossed a billion bucks worldwide.

Day One was second with $52.2 million, eclipsing my estimate of $46.3 million and the $50.2 million that A Quiet Place earned back in 2018. I do think its sophomore weekend dip will be more pronounced than part 1 (which only fell by a third). Either way it’s a fine result for a franchise that looks to keep chugging along.

The news wasn’t as good for Kevin Costner as his Western epic Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 lassoed $11 million in third compared to my $14.8 million projection. Reportedly self-funded by its star/writer/director, this is on the lower end of its range and troubling considering the rumored $100 million price tag.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die was fourth with $10.3 million (I said $11.2 million) for a four-week gross of $165 million.

Indian sci-fi tale Kalki 2898 AD was fifth with $5.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five and didn’t do a forecast.

The Bikeriders plummeted 66% to sixth with $3.3 million (I was generous at $4.6 million) for a mere $16 million in ten days.

Finally, Yorgos Lanthimos’s anthology Kinds of Kindness was ninth on just under 500 screens with $1.5 million. I thought it might get a bit more with a $3.2 million call.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

MaXXXine Box Office Prediction

An homage to the adult entertainment titles and 80s slashers that created the VHS boom of that era, MaXXXine is the third of Ti West’s trilogy that includes X and Pearl from 2022. Mia Goth reprises her role from the former with a supporting cast including Elizabeth Debicki, Moses Sumney, Michelle Monaghan, Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Lily Collins, Giancarlo Esposito, and Kevin Bacon.

Out July 5th, MaXXXine will try keeping pace with its two predecessors. In the spring of 2022, X made $4.3 million out of the gate and just shy of $12 million overall domestically. Pearl was a tad behind with a $3.1 million premiere and just over $10 million total.

These low-budget exercises have critics on their side. The RT score is 87% and, while strong, it’s the lowest of the three. Obviously the potential here is limited, but it might manage the best start to the series in mid single digits.

MaXXXine opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Despicable Me 4 prediction, click here:

Despicable Me 4 Box Office Prediction

Despicable Me 4 Box Office Prediction

Universal and Illumination Entertainment have posted great results through five pictures in the Despicable Me franchise and they look to extend their luck with part 4 on July 3rd. The animated comedy is directed by Chris Renaud with Steve Carell, Kristin Wiig, Pierre Coffin, Joey King, Miranda Cosgrove, Stephen Colbert, Steve Coogan, Sofia Vergara, Chloe Fineman, and Will Ferrell providing voiceover work.

This has been a highly durable series in its nearly decade and a half of existence. Despicable Me debuted with $56 million in July of 2010 with an eventual $251 million domestic gross. Part 2 arrived on Wednesday, July 3, 2013 and therefore had the same release pattern as this entry. It took in $84 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday three-day with $143 million when factoring in Wednesday and Thursday (the 4th). The final tally was $368 million. Despicable Me 3 came in with $72 million in July 2017 and $264 million overall.

I didn’t forget the Minions. The spin-off tale tallied $115 million out of the gate in July 2015 with $336 million domestically. Two summers ago, sequel Minions: The Rise of Gru banked $107 million en route to $370 million total.

Animation brought summer 2024 out of the doldrums via Inside Out 2 which vastly exceeded expectations. It’ll still be making money over the holiday frame, but Despicable should fall in range with some of its predecessors. I don’t foresee a premiere as high as part 2 (though no one thought Inside Out 2 would amass over $150 million in weekend 1).

A mid to high 70s Friday to Sunday should mean a five-day in the $125 million plus space for another Despicable victory.

Despicable Me 4 opening weekend prediction: $79.4 million (Friday to Sunday); $126.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my MaXXXine prediction, click here:

MaXXXine Box Office Prediction

June 28-30 Box Office Predictions

Horror prequel A Quiet Place: Day One will attempt to make enough noise to knock Inside Out 2 from its third week atop the charts, but that could be a tall order. We also have Kevin Costner’s epic Western Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 and the semi-wide expansion of the Yorgos Lanthimos anthology Kinds of Kindness out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio right here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction
Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction
Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

My mid 40s projection for Quiet would be right in line with expectations and a tad under predecessor A Quiet Place Part II from 2021. That should put it firmly in second.

That’s because animated box office behemoth Inside Out 2 might ease around 40% for a third weekend in first after its record breaking performance during its second frame (more on that below).

Horizon is a legit question mark. Some estimates have it as low as $10 million and that would likely put it in fourth behind the fourth outing of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. Despite lackluster reviews and a three-hour runtime, I think it might manage low teens for third if enough Yellowstone viewers turn up.

The Bikeriders, with significant competition for adult eyeballs, should fall around 50% to fifth after a so-so start. As for Kinds of Kindness (which just scored the biggest PTA of 2024 on five screens), it is expanding to approximately 500 venues Friday and a gross just above $3 million might be enough for sixth.

Here’s how I have it shaking out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $61.5 million

2. A Quiet Place: Day One

Predicted Gross: $46.3 million

3. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

4. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

6. Kinds of Kindness

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 21-23)

Disney/Pixar broke its own record (previously held by Incredibles 2) with the second highest animated weekend in history at $101.2 million. That bests my $93.6 million projection as the mighty sequel is up to $356 million in just ten days. A billion plus worldwide haul seems to be in the making. This is also vying for title of summer 2024’s heftiest domestic grosser with Deadpool & Wolverine seemingly the only challenger.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die held in second at $18.8 million, a bit shy of my $21.3 million take. The three-week gross is $147 million.

The Bikeriders couldn’t quite reach double digits in third with $9.6 million compared to my $10.5 million forecast. With an unimpressive B Cinemascore, this should stall out in subsequent weekends.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes was fourth with $3.8 million (I said $4.1 million) for a seven-week tally of $164 million.

The Garfield Movie closely followed in fifth with $3.7 million and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. It has made $85 million after five weeks.

IF was sixth with $2.7 million as the family friendly original hit $106 million after six weeks.

I was a little too kind to Russell Crowe’s The Exorcism. His second feature with this subject matter in a year’s time (after The Pope’s Exorcist) was underwater in seventh with $2.4 million. I predicted $3.2 million.

Finally, I didn’t do an estimate for the critically acclaimed comedy Thelma with June Squibb. It was eighth with $2.3 million which is pretty decent considering it’s on less than 1300 screens.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros is hoping Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 is more Dances with Wolves, less The Postman when it comes to Kevin Costner’s behind the camera filmography. The three-hour Western epic is the first of four planned sagas with Chapter 2 slated for mid-August and part 3 shooting. Costner, who has experienced a recent career resurgence thanks to Yellowstone on the small screen, also stars and co-scripts. The large supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Jena Malone, Abbey Lee, Michael Rooker, Danny Huston, Luke Wilson, Isabelle Fuhrman, Jeff Fahey, Will Patton, Tatanka Means, Owen Crow Shoe, Ella Hunt, Jamie Campbell Bower, and Thomas Haden Church.

A May premiere at Cannes yielded shaky buzz. The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 43%. There is no doubt that Horizon is a risky summer proposition. Costner apparently financed the bulk of the project himself.

I do think the Yellowstone exposure could cause this to surprise with a better than expected turnout of older viewers. A best case scenario might be a kickoff in the high teens to low 20s. I’ll hedge my bets and go with low to mid teens.

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

A Quiet Place: Day One Box Office Prediction

Michael Sarnoski, director of Pig, takes over a highly profitable horror franchise from John Krasinski with A Quiet Place: Day One. Paramount is hoping the prequel continues to bring home the bacon. With Krasinski (who just released the family friendly IF) and spouse Emily Blunt (recently in The Fall Guy) out of the mix, Lupita Nyong’o, Joseph Quinn, Alex Wolff, and Djimon Hounsou (a returnee from the second entry) headline.

In the spring of 2018, A Quiet Place made loud noises at multiplexes with a $50 million beginning and $188 million overall domestic haul. The 2021 sequel (delayed a year due to the pandemic) earned $48 million out of the gate with $160 million total stateside.

Scary movies have seen underwhelming premieres for the most part in 2024. Day One should be an exception. That said, I don’t see a compelling reason why this would significantly top its predecessors. A $50 million plus debut is possible. I suspect it will fall in line with its predecessor from three years ago in the mid to high 40s range.

A Quiet Place: Day One opening weekend prediction: $46.3 million

For my Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 prediction, click here:

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Kinds of Kindness Box Office Prediction

June 21-23 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Bikeriders and The Exorcism enter a marketplace in which Inside Out 2 greatly exceeded expectations last weekend. The summer box office is finally looking up, but the two new entries could struggle for exposure. My detailed prediction posts on them can be accessed here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction
The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Inside Out 2 will be perched in 1st for a second weekend. A high 30s to low 40s decline would put it in the low to mid 90s. A sequel in its third frame – Bad Boys: Ride or Die – should remain in the runner-up slot with a mid 30s to 40% ease.

Now we get to the newbies. With decent reviews and the star power of Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, and Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders could still sputter with a third place showing. I think the big question is whether it reaches double digits and I have it barely accomplishing that minor goal.

As for The Exorcism, Russell Crowe’s second horror pic in as many years dealing with the subject matter probably won’t reach the $10 million that The Pope’s Exorcist did in April of 2023.

The five spot may go to holdover Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes in its seventh week of release and here’s how I have the high five playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $93.6 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. The Bikeriders

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

5. The Exorcism

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (June 14-16)

Disney/Pixar were feeling all the happy emotions as Inside Out 2 blasted past forecasts for the 2nd best animated opening of all time. That would also be the 2nd largest Pixar haul behind record holder Incredibles 2. The sequel to the 2015 Oscar winning blockbuster posted $154.2 million, way beyond my $92.4 million call. It’s also the biggest 2024 premiere thus far.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die only fell 40% after its huge start with $33.7 million, riding past my $29.8 million take. The fourth entry in the three-decade old franchise has amassed $113 million.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes actually rose 2% to $5.5 million in third, dwarfing my $3.1 million projection as this sequel’s six-week tally is $158 million.

The over performance of Inside Out 2 caused other family friendly titles to plummet. The Garfield Movie was fourth with $4.7 million (I said $6.1 million) for $78 million in four weeks. IF was fifth with $3.6 million (I said $4.9 million) for $101 million in five weeks.

Finally, The Watchers was sixth in its sophomore frame with $3.5 million compared to my $2.9 million prediction. The two-week total is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (06/20): We have yet to even see a theater count for The Exorcism so I’m downgrading my estimate from $6.2 million to $3.2 million

The Exorcism looks to quench the moviegoing public’s thirst for mixing Russell Crowe with demonic possessions on June 21st. The horror flick arrives only a year behind the lead playing The Pope’s Exorcist. Those two pics aren’t related as Joshua John Miller directs with a supporting cast including Ryan Simpkins, Sam Worthington, Chloe Bailey, Adam Goldberg, Adrian Padsar, and David Hyde Pierce.

In April of 2023, The Pope’s Exorcist managed to open at the higher end of its expected range with a little over $9 million and an eventual $20 million gross. It is fair to wonder if genre enthusiasts are pining for another helping of its star and subject matter.

Scary movies have struggled in 2024 and this might need divine intervention to exceed $10 million for its start. I doubt it will.

The Exorcism opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my The Bikeriders prediction, click here:

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

The Bikeriders Box Office Prediction

Focus Features is hoping audiences wanna take a ride with The Bikeriders on June 21st. The 1960s set crime drama comes is written and directed by Jeff Nichols with a cast including Jodie Comer, Austin Butler, Tom Hardy, Michael Shannon, Mike Faist, and Norman Reedus.

The pic was first seen at Telluride nearly ten months ago and delayed from its original December release date due to the actors strike. It stands to reason that the studio wanted their leads out promoting the project which scored mostly positive reviews (84% on RT).

That star power of Elvis and Venom may not be enough to give this a wide audience. I’m not convinced this will make its reported $40 million budget back with the eventual domestic gross. That might mean a low double digits start and I’m a bit skeptical it even reaches the teens.

The Bikeriders opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my The Exorcism prediction, click here:

The Exorcism Box Office Prediction

June 14-16 Box Office Predictions

Disney/Pixar looks to dominate the box office charts in a way they haven’t for some time with Inside Out 2. The sequel to the 2015 hit is the only newcomer in the marketplace and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Inside Out 2 Box Office Prediction

After some fairly underwhelming grosses for the studio, Out could exceed the $90 million premiere achieved by its predecessor nine summers ago. I have it just doing so for what would be the fifth largest Pixar opening in its nearly three decade history.

Bad Boys: Ride or Die got off to a sizzling start (more on that below) and a mid to high 40s decline would have it in the $30 million range for its sophomore outing.

Spots 3 and 4 are likely to be a family friendly zone with The Garfield Movie and IF. Both will probably see slightly heftier declines than this past weekend considering the Mouse Factory competition.

Ishana Night Shyamalan’s horror debut The Watchers failed to attract genre viewers and I suspect its second weekend will see a dip in the 60% region. That could mean Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes stays in fifth with The Watchers in sixth.

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Inside Out 2

Predicted Gross: $92.4 million

2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million

3. The Garfield Movie

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. IF

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

5. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

6. The Watchers

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (June 7-9)

Will Smith can breathe a sigh of relief as Bad Boys: Ride or Die topped estimates with a boisterous $56.5 million. While that’s under the $62 million that 2020 predecessor Bad Boys for Life achieved, it’s still an impressive number considering this summer of underachievers. I didn’t give it enough credit with a $47.3 million forecast. For Smith, it’s a sign that moviegoers are willing to shell out their bucks after The Slap. Don’t be surprised to see him and Martin Lawrence back for a fifth adventure.

The Garfield Movie was second with a meager 29% slide at $10 million, ahead of my $8.9 million call. The three-week total is $68 million as it hopes to reach $100 million domestically.

IF only fell 25% for third at $7.8 million, in range with my $7.4 million projection. It is approaching nine digits with $93 million after four weeks.

The aforementioned The Watchers couldn’t capitalize on the Shyamalan family name as poor reviews sunk it. The gross was just $7 million for fourth compared to my $10.2 million estimate.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I said $6 million) for five-week earnings of $149 million.

Lastly, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga plummeted another 61% in sixth with $4.2 million. I was kinder at $5.7 million as the prequel has only hit $58 million after three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…