Nearly 70 years after the Crockett Johnson children’s book was published, the cinematic adaptation of Harold and the Purple Crayon hopes to draw in families on August 2nd. The Columbia release is directed by Carlos Saldanha, best known for his involvement in the Ice Age franchise. The live-action fantasy mixed with animation stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Jemaine Clement, Tanya Reynolds, Alfred Molina, and Zooey Deschanel.
While parents and their kiddos have made Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 smash hits this summer, I don’t think most are pining for the Purple. That said, it could surprise and over perform if they are looking for air conditioned entertainment. If so, low double digits or low teens is doable. I suspect it might struggle and only hit higher single digits.
Harold and the Purple Crayon opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million
M. Night Shyamalan and Warner Bros hope Trap fills movie houses on August 2nd. The thriller casts Josh Hartnett as a serial killer trying to thwart a manhunt while attending a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Mr. Shyamalan’s own daughter Saleka plays the artist at the venue. Hayley Mills (known for The Parent Trap some 63 years ago) and Alison Pill costar.
The writer/director experienced a mini career resurgence starting with 2017’s Split. His last two efforts haven’t generated huge numbers, but have been profitable due to low budgets. 2021’s Old started with $16 million and then grossed $48 million overall domestically. Last year’s Knock at the Cabin premiered to $14 million and $34 million total stateside. Both had reported price tags in the high teens to $20 million.
I haven’t seen the cost for Trap but its gimmick of a one place setting can’t be too expensive. Shyamalan’s pics do their business based on his name though there’s certainly limits compared to his early 2000s heyday. I doubt this will make much more than his aforementioned predecessors so let’s go high teens to low 20s.
Trap opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million
For my Harold and the Purple Crayon prediction, click here:
Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman come together for what should be the biggest opening of 2024 so far in Deadpool & Wolverine. The MCU pic is poised to dominate the weekend though Susan Sarandon and Bette Midler will try to bring in older females with The Fabulous Four. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:
My take on Deadpool & Wolverine gives it the 16th best domestic start of all time (and ninth highest for the MCU). The projected number puts it above Mr. Pool’s two direct predecessors.
Let’s dispense with Fabulous. My tiny $1.5 million estimate puts the geriatric comedy well outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Twisters could fall by over 50% after its terrific start (more on that below). I’m going to be a bit more generous and say it eases in the high 40s. The animated offerings of Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 should hold the 3-4 slots with Longlegs rounding out the top five.
And with that, my take on the frame ahead:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $176.1 million
2. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $42 million
3. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $15.2 million
4. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (July 19-21)
Twisters blew away expectations with $81.2 million, eclipsing my $72.3 million take. It also edged Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire as the year’s biggest live-action debut (a record that will stand until this weekend per above).
Despicable Me 4 slid to second with $24.4 million, on target with my $24.8 million prediction for a three-week total of $260 million.
Inside Out 2 was third with $12.8 million. That’s right in line with my $13.2 million call as the Pixar behemoth is up to $596 million in six weeks.
Longlegs had solid legs in fourth with $11.9 million in weekend #2. I was close at $11 million and it has $44 million in its coffers.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fifth with $6.3 million (I said $6.6 million) for $127 million after four outings.
Out July 26th, The Fabulous Four is the latest entry in the growing number of comedies centered on senior women. The actresses making up the title quartet are Susan Sarandon, Bette Midler, Sheryl Lee Ralph, and Megan Mullaly. Jocelyn Moorhouse directs with a supporting cast including Bruce Greenwood, Timothy V. Murphy, and Michael Bolton (!).
From Book Club and its recent sequel to Queen Bees and 80 for Brady, this sub genre continues to expand. The first Club and Brady both managed to exceed expectations at the box office, but Four faces a significant challenge. Distributor Bleecker Street is not known for opening their pictures to impressive grosses.
I have yet to see a screen count for this, but recent Bleecker releases like What Happens Later with Meg Ryan and Ezra with Robert De Niro rolled out between 1300-1500 venues. Their respective starts were $1.5 million and $1.2 million. Assuming Four hits about the same number, I’ll project similar results. In fact, I’ll give it exactly what Later managed.
The Fabulous Four opening weekend prediction: $1.5 million
For my Deadpool & Wolverine prediction, click here:
On July 26th, Ryan Reynolds and Hugh Jackman are back in their signature roles and for the first time together in the aptly titled Deadpool & Wolverine. The superhero mashup is the 34th title in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and the second sequel to 2016’s smash Deadpool. Shawn Levy directs with a supporting cast including Emma Corrin, Matthew Macfadyen, Morena Baccarin, Rob Delaney, Leslie Uggams, Brianna Hildebrand, Karan Soni, Shioli Kutsana, Lewis Tan, Aaron Stanford, Tyler Mane, Jon Favreau (back as Happy Hogan), and apparently Jennifer Garner reprising her Elektra role.
This pairing has long been looked at as the likely contender for summer 2024’s biggest blockbuster. That’s a position that might be unattainable domestically due to the Inside Out 2 phenomenon. However, it is expected to achieve the highest premiere of the season and the year.
Jackman hasn’t donned the claws since 2017’s Logan and that return helps feed the buzz. This should have no trouble giving Wolverine his largest start which is currently held by 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand ($102 million).
The same logic applies to Mr. Pool. The original made $132 million out of the gate and $363 million overall eight years ago. 2018’s follow-up took in $125 million with $318 million total stateside.
Tracking has this at around $165 million, but I’ll uptick it closer to $180 million. My exact call gives it the 16th strongest opening ever between Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Beauty and the Beast.
Deadpool & Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $176.1 million
Twisters storms into theaters nearly 30 years after the blockbuster original and it should easily rule the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the weekend’s newcomer here:
My hunch is to take the over on its anticipated range and my forecast puts Twisters in the low 70s.
The rest of the top 5 should consist of holdovers. I see Despicable Me 4, after two weeks in the top spot, dropping to second in the low to mid 40s percent arena. Another animated sequel, Inside Out 2, may hold in third.
That’s because I have it dipping in the mid t0 high 30s and current #2 Longlegs experiencing a fall in the 50% range (more on that pic’s impressive start below). A Quiet Place: Day One will probably round out the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $72.3 million
2. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $24.8 million
3. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
Box Office Results (July 12-14)
Illumination Entertainment lit up the charts once again as Despicable Me 4 repeated in first. The sequel took in $43.5 million in its sophomore outing and that exceeds my $36.4 million prediction. Since its holiday weekend debut, it has amassed $210 million.
Neon had the largest premiere in its history (and then some) with the serial killer thriller Longlegs. Featuring a heavily made up Nicolas Cage as the title character, it held the runner-up spot with $22.4 million. That nearly doubles my $11.6 million projection and quadruples the studio’s previous record holder Immaculate from earlier in the year. It is certainly one of 2024’s biggest over performers.
Inside Out 2 was third with $19.9 million, a tad more than my $17.7 million take. The Pixar follow-up stands at $571 million after five weeks.
A Quiet Place: Day One was fourth with $11.3 million (I said $10.1 million) for a three-week tally of $115 million.
Finally, the star power of Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum wasn’t enough to lift Fly Me to the Moon to stellar results. The space race rom com was fifth with $9.4 million compared to my $12.2 million call.
Blowing into theaters on July 19th some 28 years after its predecessor is Twisters. Lee Isaac Chung (maker of the Best Picture nominee Minari) goes into blockbuster mode with the disaster flick starring Daisy Edgar-Jones from Where the Crawdads Sing and Glen Powell of Top Gun: Maverick and Hit Man fame. Costars include Anthony Ramos, Brandon Perea, Maura Tierney, Harry Hadden-Paton, Sasha Lane, David Sorenswet (soon to be Superman), and Daryl McCormack.
In the summer of 1996, Jan de Bont’s Twister with Helen Hunt, Bill Paxton, and state of the art CGI stormed multiplexes with a $41 million debut and $237 million overall domestic haul. Reviews for part 2 are decent with an 81% RT score.
Recent tracking has this anywhere from a $40-55 million premiere. I suspect that is low. Decent buzz + 90s nostalgia and familiarity with the original could push this higher and I’m estimating it will. Adjusted for inflation, Twister would gross close to $80 million today out of the gate. I don’t believe the sequel gets there, but it could approach that figure.
Twisters opening weekend prediction: $72.3 million
Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum are hoping to land a third place showing behind the current animation domination with Fly to the Moon this Friday. We also have the critically acclaimed horror thriller Longlegs with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
A low double digits premiere might get Moon to third after Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. The former got off to a holiday weekend start in line with expectations while Inside continues its enormously financially potent run. I have Despicable dropping in the low 50s range with Out easing in the lower to mid 40s.
The worst case scenario for Moon would be fifth depending on how Longlegs debuts and A Quiet Place: Day One holds up in weekend 3. Longlegs is a wild card and it could exceed expectations. I have it just topping $10 million and that would put it in a close race with its genre competitor and perhaps even Moon. I’ll give the newcomer an edge over Quiet, but spots 3-5 will be a fascinating watch this time around.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $36.4 million
2. Inside Out 2
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million
3. Fly Me to the Moon
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
4. Longlegs
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
5. A Quiet Place: Day One
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
Box Office Results (July 5-7)
As mentioned, Illumination Entertainment performed as anticipated with Despicable Me 4. Having opened on Wednesday the 3rd, the four-quel (and sixth entry in the series when counting the Minions titles) made $75 million from Friday to Sunday and $122.6 million when counting its two extra days. That’s slightly below my respective estimates of $79.4 million and $126.3 million and certainly enough to keep this money minting franchise going.
Inside Out 2 dropped to second after three weeks atop the charts with $30.3 million, a tad under my $32.6 million take. The four-week gross is $534 million.
A Quiet Place: Day One tumbled a somewhat troubling 61% in third with $20.6 million. I was more generous at $24 million. The two-week tally is nearing nine digits with $93 million.
Ti West’s third pic in his horror trilogy MaXXXine was fourth with a so-so $6.7 million. That does top my $5.7 million forecast and it is higher than predecessors X and Pearl. This should fade quickly.
Bad Boys: Ride or Die rounded out the top five with $6.6 million (I said $6.8 million) for a five-week $177 million haul.
Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 was sixth in its sophomore outing with $5.3 million, in line with my $5.4 million prediction. The Western’s underwhelming total is $22 million.
Neon hopes Longlegs lights up the box office this Friday. The 90s set horror thriller comes from director Osgood Perkins with Maika Monroe and Nicolas Cage (as a demented serial killer) headlining. Costars include Blair Underwood, Alicia Witt, and Kiernan Shipka.
Plenty of scary genre titles have struggled in 2024 though A Quiet Place: Day One got off to a loud start just two weeks ago. Buzz is solid for Longlegs with a 93% RT rating.
Out on approximately 2500 screens, a victory for the studio would be a $10M+ start. It might get there and I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt. That low double digits gross might put it in a race with the third weekend of Quiet for fourth place.
Longlegs opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million
Sony Pictures is banking on star power to land Fly Me to the Moon pleasing results when it debuts July 12th. Scarlett Johansson and Channing Tatum headline the 1960s set romantic dramedy with the Space Race as a backdrop. Nick Dillenburg, Anna Garcia, Jim Rash, Ray Romano, and Woody Harrelson are in the supporting cast with Love, Simon helmer Greg Berlanti behind the camera.
With a reported $100 million price tag, this a risky bet for its studio (Apple TV has streaming rights for a TBD date). This is counting on adult moviegoers to turn up for a summertime tale with no awards buzz. It is primarily relying on Johansson and Tatum to propel it and that’s asking a lot.
A best case scenario would put this near $20 million, but I think that might be wishful thinking. Low double digits or lower teens seems likelier.
Fly Me to the Moon opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
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