Lionsgate is looking for heavy multiplex play for The Killer’s Game when it opens September 13th. The action comedy from director J.J. Perry stars Dave Bautista as an assassin fending off competitors. Sofia Boutella, Terry Crews, Bautista’s Guardians of the Galaxy costar Pom Klementieff, Scott Adkins, Marko Zaror, and Ben Kingsley costar.
It’s been a rough go for Lionsgate recently. In August, the studio had two of the summer’s biggest busts with Borderlands and The Crow. I don’t see Game reversing their fortunes in early autumn. Out on approximately 2500 screens, mid single digits seems likely.
The Killer’s Game opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Blumhouse hopes for lucky results over the Friday the 13th weekend with Speak No Evil. The psychological thriller is a remake of an acclaimed 2022 Danish production. James Watkins, who helmed 2012’s The Woman in Black, directs with James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Aisling Franciosi, and Scott McNairy starring.
Evil‘s opening weekend could be good due to lack of competition. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will be in its sophomore frame and should easily be the reigning champ. However, Evil looks to appeal to genre fans in the teens for a second place start.
Whether that opening is low or higher teens is a question mark. Perhaps McAvoy’s previous successful psycho work (see Split) will help. A gross of $15 million or over is certainly doable, but I’ll put it just under.
Speak No Evil opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
The autumn cinematic season looks to spook up a massive debut with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel to his 1988 classic with Michael Keaton reprising his iconic role. My detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
In order for Beetlejuice to set the all-time domestic September opening record, it would need to eclipse the $123 million achieved by 2017’s It. That could be a tall order but it is achievable. For second place, topping the $91 million earned by It‘s 2019 sequel is the assignment. My forecast gives Burton and company those bragging rights with room to spare.
The rest of the top five will belong to summer holdovers with Deadpool & Wolverine sliding to second. Spots 3-5 should be a close call between Reagan, Twisters, and Alien: Romulus. I have them in that order though the figures are basically interchangeable.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $115.7 million
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
3. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (August 30-September 2)
A rather dull Labor Day weekend greeted multiplexes as Deadpool & Wolverine, in its sixth frame, stayed in first with $19.5 million. That’s a little more than my $18.3 million prediction as the MCU heavy hitter is up to $603 million.
Alien: Romulus was second with $11.6 million, under my $13.7 million prediction. The franchise’s latest entry is nearing the century mark at $91 million after three weeks.
The bright spot of the holiday for theaters was Ronald Reagan’s reemergence with Dennis Quaid playing him. Biopic Reagan was a solid third with $10.3 million, easily surpassing my meager $5.6 million take.
Fourth place belonged to Twisters with $9.8 million. It blew past my $6.8 million forecast in week 7 to bring its tally to $260 million.
It Ends with Us rounded out the top five with $9.3 million (I went with $10.2 million) for a pleasing four-week gross of $135 million.
Faith-based drama The Forge was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $7.2 million) for $16 million after two weeks.
Also in its sophomore frame, Blink Twice grossed $6.1 million for seventh. That’s in range with my $6.3 million projection and it has $16 million in its coffers.
Finally, Blumhouse horror flick AfrAId was DOA in ninth with just $4.4 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.
Over three and a half decades after the original made a killing at the box office, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice appears in theaters on September 6th. Tim Burton returns to direct the macabre comedy with Michael Keaton reprising his title role as the demented bio-exorcist. Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara are back as Lydia and Delia Deetz with Jenna Ortega (hot off Netflix’s Wednesday from exec producer Burton) joining as third gen Deetz. Other newcomers to the franchise are Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, and Willem Dafoe.
The long-in-development sequel received a high-profile slot kicking off the Venice Film Festival this week. Reviews are mostly fresh with many critics saying it’s a return to form for its filmmaker. In 1988, Beetlejuice grossed $74 million domestically and was the 10th highest earner of the year. Since then, its reputation has grown as a classic genre mixup of humor and genial horror.
This should succeed in bringing in 36 years worth of fans and it doesn’t hurt that Ortega is present. Tracking continues to tick up from $65-75 million as it’s now expected to rise above well above that and maybe even in nine figures. The domestic September opening weekend records are held by 2017’s It ($123 million) and its 2019 sequel It Chapter Two with $91 million. Third place belongs to the MCU’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $75 million.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should face no trouble achieving second place and it could absolutely come in first. The momentum appears real and I’ll say it gets beyond the century mark.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice opening weekend prediction: $115.7 million
Sci-fi horror pic AfrAId and political biopic Reagan are two newcomers working hard to attract viewers over Labor Day weekend, but it should be holdovers shining atop the box office hill. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Over the four-day frame, I don’t believe either fresh flick will manage to hit double digits. As an aside, there are other newbies out like 1992 with Tyrese Gibson and the late Ray Liotta and Slingshot with Casey Affleck and Laurence Fishburne. There’s also the family sports tale You Gotta Believe. I didn’t do individual write-ups on this trio as I have a tough time envisioning any of them approaching the top five (or top 8 for that matter). If any of them have a shot of surprising, maybe Believe does but I wouldn’t count on it.
AfrAId from Blumhouse should be the best performer of the debuts. That still could mean only high single digits for a third place showing at best or fourth or fifth.
How Reagan rolls out is a big question mark. With Dennis Quaid as the 40th POTUS, it might over perform if conservatives come out in force. I’m skeptical and my mid single digits take puts it outside the high five.
The seasonal leftovers usually have small percentage drops over this holiday frame from Friday to Monday. I would anticipate that Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, and It Ends with Us will maintain spots 1-3. Faith-based drama The Forge nabbed an A+ Cinemascore this past weekend and should hold steady (same goes for Blink Twice). That could mean both earn more than Reagan.
Here’s how I have it shaking out and we’ll do a top 8 forecast as the summer season closes out. These are Friday to Monday estimates:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. AfrAId
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
5. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
6. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
8. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 23-25)
Deadpool & Wolverine clawed its way back to the #1 slot after a week away. The MCU behemoth took in $18.3 million in its fifth week, in range with my $19.2 million prediction. It is up to $577 million total.
Alien: Romulus slid precipitously to second in its sophomore outing. Down 61%, the gross was $16.3 million (a bit under my $17.8 million call) for $72 million thus far.
It Ends with Us stayed in third with $11.6 million, a tad shy of my $13.4 million projection. The three-week haul is $120 million.
A trio of newcomers generally underwhelmed. Blink Twice fared best in fourth at $7.3 million. That doesn’t match my $8.5 million estimate though it’s an OK result considering the reported $20 million price tag.
The Forge was fifth at $6.6 million and that’s on target with my $7.1 million prediction. As mentioned, it should hold well considering the Cinemascore grade.
Finally, The Crow didn’t fly with viewers. The reboot tanked in 8th place with just $4.6 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.
As the nation is focused on who will be the 47th President of the United States, distributor ShowBiz Direct hopes moviegoers watch a biopic about the 40th over Labor Day weekend. Sean McNamara directs Reagan with Dennis Quaid in the title role and Penelope Ann Miller as First Lady Nancy. Costars include Nick Searcy, Robert Davi, Lesley-Anne Down, C. Thomas Howell, Kevin Dillon, Mena Suvari, and Jon Voight. Heck, we even have Creed frontman Scott Stapp as Frank Sinatra (?!?).
Political pics fave challenges breaking through at the box office. I’m not sure audiences will greet this with arms wide open. Shot in late 2020, it has taken some time to find its way to the big screen. Reagan is catering to a conservative audience as evidenced by the politics of some of the cast.
Perhaps older viewers will turn out, but I’m skeptical the MAGA crowd shows up in force. With the caveat that this could outperform, I’ll say mid to maybe higher single digits is where this lands over the four-day holiday.
Reagan opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.
At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.
AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.
AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)
The Forge is the latest faith-based drama from director Alex Kendrick and his brother/cowriter Stephen Kendrick. With Sony Pictures distributing, it makes its way to theaters August 23rd. A spin-off to 2015’s surprise hit War Room, the cast features Cameron Arnett, Priscilla Shirer, Aspen Kennedy, Karen Abercrombie, and T.C. Stallings.
Nearly a decade ago, War Room debuted far beyond expectations at $11.4 million on its way to a $67 million domestic haul. The Kendricks’ follow-up, 2019’s Overcomer, couldn’t match those figures with an $8 million start and $34 million overall.
The lengthy break between Room and Forge could limit its drawing power. I still think high single digits and even $10 million is possible. However, my take puts it just behind fellow newbies Blink Twice and The Crow.
The Forge opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.
The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.
Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.
If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. The Crow
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
6. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 16-18)
Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.
Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.
It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.
Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.
Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.
MGM looks for audiences to set their sights on Blink Twice when it opens August 23rd. The thriller marks the directorial debut of Zoë Kravitz with an eclectic cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.
Reviews thus far are decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Late August typically isn’t fertile ground for fresh product at the box office. Blink face an uphill battle. It is slated for approximately 3000 screens and that’s more than The Crow is reportedly getting (2600).
There could be a close race between those two newcomers as I see both in the high single digits or lower double digits. I currently having this flying a little higher.
Blink Twice opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
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