Tag: box office predictions

August 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction
The Crow Box Office Prediction
The Forge Box Office Prediction

The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.

The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.

Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.

If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

2. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Blink Twice

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

5. The Crow

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million

6. The Forge

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 16-18)

Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.

Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.

It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.

Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.

Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

MGM looks for audiences to set their sights on Blink Twice when it opens August 23rd. The thriller marks the directorial debut of Zoë Kravitz with an eclectic cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.

Reviews thus far are decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Late August typically isn’t fertile ground for fresh product at the box office. Blink face an uphill battle. It is slated for approximately 3000 screens and that’s more than The Crow is reportedly getting (2600).

There could be a close race between those two newcomers as I see both in the high single digits or lower double digits. I currently having this flying a little higher.

Blink Twice opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my The Crow prediction, click here:

The Crow Box Office Prediction

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

The Forge Box Office Prediction

The Crow Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.

While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.

1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.

The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.

The Crow opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million

For my Blink Twice prediction, click here:

Blink Twice Box Office Prediction

For my The Forge prediction, click here:

The Forge Box Office Prediction

August 16-18 Box Office Predictions

Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).

Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).

As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.

Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:

1. Alien: Romulus

Predicted Gross: $35.2 million

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $29.5 million

3. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

4. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.

As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.

Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.

Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.

Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.

Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular children’s YouTube channel, Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure streams only in theaters starting August 16th. Albie Hecht, once a high ranking Nickelodeon exec, makes his directorial debut. The mix of live-action and Japanese animation stars the real-life Kaji family led by Ryan, his parents, and twin sisters.

Premiering on approximately 2100 screens, I will make a confession with this particular prediction. I was totally unaware of the YouTube show’s existence until shortly before writing this entry. Its numbers are impressive. The channel boasts around 37 million subscribers, putting it in the top 10 most subscribed in the country. There are nearly 60 billion total views on the platform.

That all could signal a healthy opening for this Adventure. I do wonder whether kids and their parents will flock to something for an hour and a half that they’re accustomed to digesting in short bursts for free. Fair warning: this projection could shift over the next few days. The theater count is about half of what Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 rolled out with and that should limit the potential.

I’ll forecast mid to high single digits with an admission that I’m flying a bit blind here.

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million

For my Alien: Romulus prediction, click here:

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

Alien: Romulus Box Office Prediction

Fede Álvarez, best known for his Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, takes over a classic 45-year-old franchise when Alien: Romulus touches down on August 16th. Set between the events of Alien and Aliens, the seventh entry in the series (not counting those two battles with Predator) features Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn.

Originally conceived as a Hulu streaming release, 20th Century Studios rethought their strategy to allow a summer theatrical bow. This is the first Alien feature in seven years since Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant and the first since Disney acquired the property.

If Romulus matched the $36 million that Covenant started off with, that should be considered a win. I say that because the predecessor plummeted after its first weekend and grossed an underwhelming $74 million overall domestically.

I’ll project that this gets a bit under that starting Covenant figure as it’ll hope to have sturdier legs in subsequent weekends.

Alien: Romulus opening weekend prediction: $35.2 million

For my Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure prediction, click here:

Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure Box Office Prediction

August 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.

After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction
Borderlands Box Office Prediction

It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.

I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.

Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.

Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.

Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $49.6 million

2. It Ends with Us

Predicted Gross: $43.8 million

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Borderlands

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

6. Trap

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (August 9-11)

As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.

Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.

Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.

Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.

Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.

That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million

For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.

The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.

Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my It Ends with Us prediction, click here:

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

It Ends with Us Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $39.8 million to $43.8 million

Blake Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds will certainly have the largest summer 2024 opening with Deadpool & Wolverine, but her romantic drama It Ends with Us could be poised for an impressive beginning. Based on a 2016 novel by Colleen Hoover that was a huge bestseller, Lively costars with Justin Baldoni. He also handles directorial duties. The supporting cast includes Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, and Brandon Sklenar.

Originally set for release in February, then June, and finally settling on the August date, Ends should be shrewd seasonal counter programming. The Sony release could perform similarly to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing. It was also based on a wildly popular book. Opening to $17 million in July 2022, it eventually legged out to $90 million domestically.

Ends might even be more front loaded. Some estimates have this in the $25 million range. My hunch is to go higher in the upper 30s to even low 40s.

It Ends with Us opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million

For my Borderlands prediction, click here:

Borderlands Box Office Prediction

August 2-4 Box Office Predictions

M. Night Shyamalan’s thriller Trap looks to set a solid second place showing after the MCU behemoth that is Deadpool & Wolverine. We also have Harold and the Purple Crayon looking to draw in a family audience as August arrives at multiplexes. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers right here:

Trap Box Office Prediction
Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

Trap could have breakout potential with its concept of a serial killer being cornered at a concert with his unknowing daughter. The brand name recognition of its director could assist. Mid 20s seems doable, but I have it in the high teens. That should be enough to give it runner-up status over the third frame of Twisters which should also be in that same forecasted range.

Harold and the Purple Crayon is a tricky one. Based on a nearly 70-year-old kids book, parents and kids may turn up since most have already viewed Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2. I suspect the so-so trailers and quiet word-of-mouth could mean just higher single digits. That might mean fifth place just under Despicable.

Now we move to Deadpool & Wolverine. The eagerly awaited Marvel mashup smashed my projection (more on that below). This should be fairly front loaded as anticipation was sky high. Similar MCU fare that reached close to the D & W level (like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness) experienced sophomore drops in the low to high 60s. This may see high 50s or low 60s which would put it in the low to mid 80s.

And with that, my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. Deadpool & Wolverine

Predicted Gross: $84.6 million

2. Trap

Predicted Gross: $19.2 millionm

3. Twisters

Predicted Gross: $18.1 million

4. Despicable Me 4

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

5. Harold and the Purple Crayon

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

Box Office Results (July 26-28)

Filmgoers devoured Deadpool & Wolverine, providing record setting numbers as the 34th MCU tale spawned the largest R-rated debut ever at $211.4 million (dwarfing my $176.1 million prediction). That’s also the 6th biggest domestic haul in history (between Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jurassic World) and 4th highest MCU beginning behind Avengers: Endgame, Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Avengers: Infinity War. The all-time July record was additionally achieved. Furthermore it marks a personal best for Peggy, the dog who plays Mary Puppins or Dogpool. After a rough couple of years for the MCU, this gets the franchise back in phenomenal order.

The massive over performance of Wade and Logan meant Twisters spiraled more than most thought it would. It fell an understandable 57% to second at $34.9 million compared to my $42 million estimate. The two-week tally is still a potent $154 million.

Despicable Me 4 was third with $14.5 million, in line with my $15.2 million call. The animated smash has amassed $291 million in four weeks.

Speaking of animated smashes, Inside Out 2 became the #1 domestic animated title of all time with $613 million and replacing previous champion Incredibles 2. The fourth placing showing this weekend gave it another $8.6 million (I said $8.4 million). Pixar’s sequel also stands as the gold medalist for worldwide numbers in its genre.

Longlegs rounded out the top five with $6.7 million, in range with my $6.4 million projection. The horror hit has scared up $58 million in three weeks.

Finally, the geriatric comedy The Fabulous Four with Bette Midler and Susan Sarandon belly flopped in eighth with a mere $1 million. I thought it might manage $1.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…