The last time the Transformers franchise went fully animated on the big screen, it was in 1986 in The Transformers: The Movie. It was a flop but has since developed a cult following and it awesomely featured the voices of everyone from Eric Idle to Judd Nelson to Leonard Nimoy to Casey Kasem to Orson Welles. Since then, Paramount and Hasbro have earned billions from their live-action robot mayhem movies. The franchise goes back to animation in Transformers One on September 20th. From Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley, this might not have Casey Kasem or Charles Foster Kane. There are voiceover contributions from Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging for the sci-fi action tale and that could help post Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. It came out last summer and ended up as the lowest grosser of the series with $157 million domestically. Expectations are not lofty for One and it could end up making less than Beasts. I’m pegging this for a mid 30s beginning.
Transformers One opening weekend prediction: $35.4 million
Psychological thriller Speak No Evil with James McAvoy and action comedy The Killer’s Game starring Dave Bautista hope to get lucky with audiences this weekend as Beetlejuice Beetlejuice looks to reign supreme for a second frame. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Evil appears poised for an easy second place start as I have the Blumhouse remake of a 2022 Danish flick in the low teens.
As for The Killer’s Game, I look for it to continue a tepid streak for distributor Lionsgate in the mid single digits. That could mean fourth place with holdovers Deadpool & Wolverine in third and Reagan in fifth.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice impressed in its opening frame (more on that below). That business might be prove to be front loaded. A low to mid 60s sophomore slide is likely and understandable.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $40.9 million
2. Speak No Evil
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
3. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
4. The Killer’s Game
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
Box Office Results (September 6-8)
Tim Burton’s long in the making sequel Beetlejuice Beetlejuice achieved the second best September start in box office history with $111 million. That puts it in between 2017’s It ($123 million) and its 2019 follow-up ($91 million). While it didn’t quite match my $115.7 million prediction, audiences were clearly primed for Michael Keaton and Winona Ryder’s returns to their iconic characters with Jenna Ortega joining the proceedings.
Deadpool & Wolverine was the runner-up with $7 million (I was higher at $9.8 million) for $613 million after seven weeks of slashing 2024 records.
Reagan held up well in third with $4.8 million. My projection? $4.8 million! In two weeks, the biopic has made $18 million.
Alien: Romulus was fourth at $3.9 million (I said $4.5 million) to bring the four-week tally to $97 million.
I incorrectly did not have It Ends with Us in the top five, but it managed fifth with $3.7 million. It has totaled $141 million in five weeks.
Lionsgate is looking for heavy multiplex play for The Killer’s Game when it opens September 13th. The action comedy from director J.J. Perry stars Dave Bautista as an assassin fending off competitors. Sofia Boutella, Terry Crews, Bautista’s Guardians of the Galaxy costar Pom Klementieff, Scott Adkins, Marko Zaror, and Ben Kingsley costar.
It’s been a rough go for Lionsgate recently. In August, the studio had two of the summer’s biggest busts with Borderlands and The Crow. I don’t see Game reversing their fortunes in early autumn. Out on approximately 2500 screens, mid single digits seems likely.
The Killer’s Game opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Blumhouse hopes for lucky results over the Friday the 13th weekend with Speak No Evil. The psychological thriller is a remake of an acclaimed 2022 Danish production. James Watkins, who helmed 2012’s The Woman in Black, directs with James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Aisling Franciosi, and Scott McNairy starring.
Evil‘s opening weekend could be good due to lack of competition. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice will be in its sophomore frame and should easily be the reigning champ. However, Evil looks to appeal to genre fans in the teens for a second place start.
Whether that opening is low or higher teens is a question mark. Perhaps McAvoy’s previous successful psycho work (see Split) will help. A gross of $15 million or over is certainly doable, but I’ll put it just under.
Speak No Evil opening weekend prediction: $14.6 million
The autumn cinematic season looks to spook up a massive debut with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Tim Burton’s long in the works sequel to his 1988 classic with Michael Keaton reprising his iconic role. My detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:
In order for Beetlejuice to set the all-time domestic September opening record, it would need to eclipse the $123 million achieved by 2017’s It. That could be a tall order but it is achievable. For second place, topping the $91 million earned by It‘s 2019 sequel is the assignment. My forecast gives Burton and company those bragging rights with room to spare.
The rest of the top five will belong to summer holdovers with Deadpool & Wolverine sliding to second. Spots 3-5 should be a close call between Reagan, Twisters, and Alien: Romulus. I have them in that order though the figures are basically interchangeable.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Predicted Gross: $115.7 million
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
3. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
5. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (August 30-September 2)
A rather dull Labor Day weekend greeted multiplexes as Deadpool & Wolverine, in its sixth frame, stayed in first with $19.5 million. That’s a little more than my $18.3 million prediction as the MCU heavy hitter is up to $603 million.
Alien: Romulus was second with $11.6 million, under my $13.7 million prediction. The franchise’s latest entry is nearing the century mark at $91 million after three weeks.
The bright spot of the holiday for theaters was Ronald Reagan’s reemergence with Dennis Quaid playing him. Biopic Reagan was a solid third with $10.3 million, easily surpassing my meager $5.6 million take.
Fourth place belonged to Twisters with $9.8 million. It blew past my $6.8 million forecast in week 7 to bring its tally to $260 million.
It Ends with Us rounded out the top five with $9.3 million (I went with $10.2 million) for a pleasing four-week gross of $135 million.
Faith-based drama The Forge was sixth with $6.5 million (I said $7.2 million) for $16 million after two weeks.
Also in its sophomore frame, Blink Twice grossed $6.1 million for seventh. That’s in range with my $6.3 million projection and it has $16 million in its coffers.
Finally, Blumhouse horror flick AfrAId was DOA in ninth with just $4.4 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.
Over three and a half decades after the original made a killing at the box office, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice appears in theaters on September 6th. Tim Burton returns to direct the macabre comedy with Michael Keaton reprising his title role as the demented bio-exorcist. Winona Ryder and Catherine O’Hara are back as Lydia and Delia Deetz with Jenna Ortega (hot off Netflix’s Wednesday from exec producer Burton) joining as third gen Deetz. Other newcomers to the franchise are Justin Theroux, Monica Bellucci, and Willem Dafoe.
The long-in-development sequel received a high-profile slot kicking off the Venice Film Festival this week. Reviews are mostly fresh with many critics saying it’s a return to form for its filmmaker. In 1988, Beetlejuice grossed $74 million domestically and was the 10th highest earner of the year. Since then, its reputation has grown as a classic genre mixup of humor and genial horror.
This should succeed in bringing in 36 years worth of fans and it doesn’t hurt that Ortega is present. Tracking continues to tick up from $65-75 million as it’s now expected to rise above well above that and maybe even in nine figures. The domestic September opening weekend records are held by 2017’s It ($123 million) and its 2019 sequel It Chapter Two with $91 million. Third place belongs to the MCU’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $75 million.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice should face no trouble achieving second place and it could absolutely come in first. The momentum appears real and I’ll say it gets beyond the century mark.
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice opening weekend prediction: $115.7 million
Sci-fi horror pic AfrAId and political biopic Reagan are two newcomers working hard to attract viewers over Labor Day weekend, but it should be holdovers shining atop the box office hill. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Over the four-day frame, I don’t believe either fresh flick will manage to hit double digits. As an aside, there are other newbies out like 1992 with Tyrese Gibson and the late Ray Liotta and Slingshot with Casey Affleck and Laurence Fishburne. There’s also the family sports tale You Gotta Believe. I didn’t do individual write-ups on this trio as I have a tough time envisioning any of them approaching the top five (or top 8 for that matter). If any of them have a shot of surprising, maybe Believe does but I wouldn’t count on it.
AfrAId from Blumhouse should be the best performer of the debuts. That still could mean only high single digits for a third place showing at best or fourth or fifth.
How Reagan rolls out is a big question mark. With Dennis Quaid as the 40th POTUS, it might over perform if conservatives come out in force. I’m skeptical and my mid single digits take puts it outside the high five.
The seasonal leftovers usually have small percentage drops over this holiday frame from Friday to Monday. I would anticipate that Deadpool & Wolverine, Alien: Romulus, and It Ends with Us will maintain spots 1-3. Faith-based drama The Forge nabbed an A+ Cinemascore this past weekend and should hold steady (same goes for Blink Twice). That could mean both earn more than Reagan.
Here’s how I have it shaking out and we’ll do a top 8 forecast as the summer season closes out. These are Friday to Monday estimates:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
4. AfrAId
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
5. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
6. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
8. Reagan
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (August 23-25)
Deadpool & Wolverine clawed its way back to the #1 slot after a week away. The MCU behemoth took in $18.3 million in its fifth week, in range with my $19.2 million prediction. It is up to $577 million total.
Alien: Romulus slid precipitously to second in its sophomore outing. Down 61%, the gross was $16.3 million (a bit under my $17.8 million call) for $72 million thus far.
It Ends with Us stayed in third with $11.6 million, a tad shy of my $13.4 million projection. The three-week haul is $120 million.
A trio of newcomers generally underwhelmed. Blink Twice fared best in fourth at $7.3 million. That doesn’t match my $8.5 million estimate though it’s an OK result considering the reported $20 million price tag.
The Forge was fifth at $6.6 million and that’s on target with my $7.1 million prediction. As mentioned, it should hold well considering the Cinemascore grade.
Finally, The Crow didn’t fly with viewers. The reboot tanked in 8th place with just $4.6 million. I was kinder at $7.4 million.
As the nation is focused on who will be the 47th President of the United States, distributor ShowBiz Direct hopes moviegoers watch a biopic about the 40th over Labor Day weekend. Sean McNamara directs Reagan with Dennis Quaid in the title role and Penelope Ann Miller as First Lady Nancy. Costars include Nick Searcy, Robert Davi, Lesley-Anne Down, C. Thomas Howell, Kevin Dillon, Mena Suvari, and Jon Voight. Heck, we even have Creed frontman Scott Stapp as Frank Sinatra (?!?).
Political pics fave challenges breaking through at the box office. I’m not sure audiences will greet this with arms wide open. Shot in late 2020, it has taken some time to find its way to the big screen. Reagan is catering to a conservative audience as evidenced by the politics of some of the cast.
Perhaps older viewers will turn out, but I’m skeptical the MAGA crowd shows up in force. With the caveat that this could outperform, I’ll say mid to maybe higher single digits is where this lands over the four-day holiday.
Reagan opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million (Friday to Monday prediction)
Sony and Blumhouse are counting on horror fans to show up for AfrAId when it debuts over Labor Day weekend. From director Chris Weitz (whose varied filmography includes About a Boy, The Golden Compass, and The Twilight Saga: New Moon), the cast includes John Cho, Katherine Waterston, Havana Rose Liu, Lukita Maxwell, David Dastmalchian, and Keith Carradine.
At a brisk 84 minutes, the tale of an AI assistant gone rogue is Blumhouse’s latest hope for a genre breakout. They had a banner year in 2023 with M3GAN and Five Nights at Freddy’s. 2024 has been rougher with disappointments Night Swim and Imaginary.
AfrAId is unlikely to bring many real viewers in. For the extended holiday frame, it may struggle to reach double digits. I’ll say it does not.
AfrAId opening weekend prediction: $7.4 million (Friday to Monday projection)
The Forge is the latest faith-based drama from director Alex Kendrick and his brother/cowriter Stephen Kendrick. With Sony Pictures distributing, it makes its way to theaters August 23rd. A spin-off to 2015’s surprise hit War Room, the cast features Cameron Arnett, Priscilla Shirer, Aspen Kennedy, Karen Abercrombie, and T.C. Stallings.
Nearly a decade ago, War Room debuted far beyond expectations at $11.4 million on its way to a $67 million domestic haul. The Kendricks’ follow-up, 2019’s Overcomer, couldn’t match those figures with an $8 million start and $34 million overall.
The lengthy break between Room and Forge could limit its drawing power. I still think high single digits and even $10 million is possible. However, my take puts it just behind fellow newbies Blink Twice and The Crow.
The Forge opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
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