Tag: box office predictions

November 22-24 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (11/20): I have posted a $4 million forecast for Bonhoeffer today which puts it in fourth place. That change is reflected below and we now have a top 7 projections.

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

Hollywood hopes for a massive box office weekend ahead as Wicked and Gladiator II look to inject $200 million or more in domestic receipts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction
Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

In July 2023, the phenomenon known as Barbenheimer occurred when Barbie soared with a $162 million starting haul while Oppenheimer took in $82 million. I don’t think the grosses will be as gargantuan with Wicked and Gladiator II, but multiplexes should be in for a much needed boost.

Wicked adapts the well-known stage musical with Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as early versions of the Wicked Witch of the West and Glinda the Good Witch from The Wizard of Oz, respectively. This is part 1 of Jon M. Chu’s fantasy musical with part II arriving in a year. I’m projecting nearly $135 million out of the gate as a wide audience seems destined to greet it.

Gladiator II is the long-in-development follow-up to Ridley Scott’s Best Picture winner with Paul Mescal headlining and Denzel Washington in an Oscar baity supporting turn. My high 60s forecast puts it in the runner-up position. I would note that either of these titles could over perform and keep on this post to see if there are any upgrades by Thursday.

With families flocking to Wicked and action fans packed for Gladiator, current champ Red One will slide to third. The holiday themed action comedy may experience a decline north of 50% considering the fresh competition.

The rest of the high five will consist of holdovers Venom: The Last Dance and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever and Heretic in a close race for fifth. Here’s how I envision the top 6 shaking out:

1. Wicked

Predicted Gross: $134.6 million

2. Gladiator II

Predicted Gross: $69.8 million

3. Red One

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million

4. Bonhoeffer

Predicted Gross: $4 million

5. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $3.6 million

6. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $2.7 million

7. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $2.5 million

Box Office Results (November 15-17)

On one hand, Red Notice with Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans was originally set for Amazon only distribution so any number is better than nothing. On the other, its debut is fairly ho-hum considering the reported $250 million price tag. It made $32.1 million which did manage to exceed my $27.6 million take. As mentioned, I do expect a hefty dip though it could rebound over the Turkey Day frame.

Venom: The Last Dance was second after three weeks in 1st with $7.3 million, falling behind my $10.2 million prediction. The comic book based threequel sits at $127 million after four outings.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $5.2 million. In a trend from this past weekend, it didn’t match my number as I pegged it at $7.6 million. The two-week tally is $19 million.

Heretic was fourth with $5.1 million (I said $6.3 million) as Hugh Grant horror thriller’s total is $20 million after its second go-round.

The Wild Robot rounded out the top five with $4.2 million compared to my $5.5 million call. The animated tale has earned $137 million in eight weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

Nearly 25 years after Ridley Scott’s original epic stormed the box office and the Academy Awards, Gladiator II enters cinematic arenas on November 22nd. Paul Mescal stars as Lucius, son of Russell Crowe’s Maximus with Scott back in the director’s chair. Costars include Pedro Pascal, Joseph Quinn, Fred Hechinger, Derek Jacobi, Connie Nielsen (back as the sister to Joaquin Phoenix’s departed Commodus), and Denzel Washington (generating Oscar buzz for his role).

With a reported budget north of $200 million, the long-in-development sequel should capitalize on a quarter century of goodwill from the Best Picture winning part 1. Reviews are decent with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and 67 on Metacritic.

The $60-$75 million forecast for its debut sounds about right. I am hesitant to take the over as some viewers may wait until the following Thanksgiving frame to make the multiplex trek. I’ll put it in the upper end of that range for a second place showing to Wicked.

Gladiator II opening weekend prediction: $69.8 million

For my Wicked prediction, click here:

Wicked Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

Wicked Box Office Prediction

Universal is banking on Wicked casting a spell on a wide audience when it debuts November 22nd. Based on the Stephen Schwartz musical, the fantasy set in the land of Oz comes from Crazy Rich Asians director Jon M. Chu. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande headline with a supporting cast including Jonathan Bailey, Ethan Slater, Bowen Yang, Marissa Bode, Peter Dinklage, Michelle Yeoh, and Jeff Goldblum. The adaptation serves as part one with the sequel scheduled for November of 2025.

Expectations are high, especially after industry screenings that were met with Oscar buzz in Best Picture, Supporting Actress fo Grande, and numerous tech races. Moviegoers of all ages have familiarity with the Broadway show and, of course, The Wizard of Oz. There’s even some Barbenheimer chatter since it is opening on the same date as Gladiator II, which is also anticipated to perform well.

The forecasted range of its start is wide with some estimates less than $100 million, but going all the way up to $150 million. I’m skeptical it gets that high as some viewers may choose to wait until the extended Thanksgiving frame to check it out. Yet I do think it will easily clear nine digits out of the gate.

Wicked opening weekend prediction: $134.6 million

For my Gladiator II prediction, click here:

Gladiator II Box Office Prediction

For my Bonhoeffer prediction, click here:

Bonhoeffer Box Office Prediction

November 15-17 Box Office Predictions

Dwayne Johnson and Chris Evans headline this weekend’s sole wide release with the Christmas action comedy Red One. It looks to dominate the charts with an eye on a lengthy holiday run. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Red One Box Office Prediction

Early word-of-mouth is a bit troubling with a 30% Rotten Tomatoes score. I don’t think it gets to the top end of its anticipated range ($40 million). A mid to high 20s output would be considered a cold opening, but families may wait until later in the month to check it out.

Holdovers should all drop a notch as we await heavy hitters like Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2. Venom: The Last Dance should dip to second after three weeks atop the charts. There’s a decent chance that The Best Christmas Pageant Ever stays in third as it might have a better sophomore hold than Heretic. The Wild Robot should round out the top five and here’s how I envision it breaking down:

1. Red One

Predicted Gross: $27.6 million

2. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

4. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

5. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

Box Office Results (November 8-10)

Tom Hardy’s loopy third take on his comic book creation was #1 for a third frame as Venom: The Last Dance repeated with $15.9 million. That’s a bit ahead of my $14.3 million projection as the total is $114 million thus far. It won’t match its two predecessors, but it has posted solid holds weekend to weekend.

Horror thriller Heretic with Hugh Grant came in right where it was forecasted in second with $11 million (I said $11.2 million). Despite strong reviews, this certainly didn’t over perform and a so-so C+ Cinemascore could mean it fades fairly quickly.

Yuletide dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever was third with $10.7 million, outpacing my $8 million call. This will hope for smallish declines as the festive season is just underway.

The Wild Robot was fourth with $6.6 million, edging my $5.5 million prediction. The potential Animated Feature Oscar frontrunner has collected $130 million after seven weeks.

Smile 2 was fifth with $5.1 million (I went with $4.4 million) as the horror sequel sits at $60 million in its four weeks of play.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Red One Box Office Prediction

The pricey Yuletide action comedy Red One touches down in theaters November 15th and hoping to slay the box office with a large family audience. Jake Kasdan, maker of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and sequel The Next Level, reunites with that franchise lead Dwayne Johnson as well as Chris Evans. Costars include Lucy Liu, J.K. Simmons, Kiernan Shipka, Bonnie Hunt, Kristofer Hivju, and Nick Kroll.

With a reported $250 million price tag, the Santa Claus kidnapping caper is counting on a significant presence with parents and kiddos. The review embargo, likely not by accident, lifted Tuesday night as America was tuned into the Presidential election results. Word-of-mouth isn’t great with 33% on Rotten Tomatoes and 37 on Metacritic.

That could damper the buzz and keep it on the lower end of its anticipated $20-$45 million range. There is a considerable lack of competition (at least until Wicked and Gladiator II open the following weekend) and that could help. Yet I suspect mid to high 20s is where this begins.

Red One opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million

November 8-10 Box Office Predictions

Critically acclaimed horror thriller Heretic and holiday family dramedy The Best Christmas Pageant Ever will both attempt to keep Venom: The Last Dance from a third weekend in first place. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

Heretic Box Office Prediction
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever Box Office Prediction

Heretic finds Hugh Grant dipping into scary territory and my low double digits estimate puts it in range with the September start of Speak No Evil. That’s likely good for second place.

I’ve got Christmas in third in the high single digits though its chances of over performing exist. I also think it might experience low declines as the holidays approach and get off to a relatively slow start.

My projections on the two openers does indeed leave Venom atop the charts for a third frame assuming it drops in the mid 40s. Holdovers The Wild Robot and Smile 2 should round out the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

2. Heretic

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million

Box Office Results (November 1-3)

November started off in multiplexes with October product holding steadier than my forecasts. Venom: The Last Dance is the prime example as it declined only 49% in weekend #2 with $25.9 million. I was much lower at $17.3 million. That’s a bit of a surprise considering predecessor Let There Be Carnage plummeted in the mid 60s. Of course, it’s worth noting that Dance opened with nearly $40 million less than Carnage.

The Wild Robot was second with $7.4 million as it managed to rise 9% and blast past my $5 million call. The animated pic has amassed $121 million after six weeks.

Smile 2 was third with $6.7 million and that’s wider than my $5.6 million take. The horror sequel is up to $52 million after three frames.

Oscar hopeful Conclave eased a mere 24% in fourth with $5 million (I said $4.2 million) for $14 million in two outings.

Finally, Robert Zemeckis’s Here, which reunites his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright, stumbled with critics and audiences. The fifth place showing netted $4.8 million. My prediction? $4.8 million!

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever Box Office Prediction

Lionsgate hopes to reverse a recent trend of box office lumps of coal when The Best Christmas Pageant Ever opens November 8th. Dallas Jenkins, creator of popular faith-based The Chosen series, directs with Judy Greer, Pete Holmes, and Lauren Graham in the cast.

The holiday themed dramedy based on the 1972 Barbara Robinson book is wishing for family audiences to turn out. That might not happen at all or at least right away. As mentioned, its distributor is in a significant slump. If moviegoers like what they see, perhaps it will experience meager declines as Thanksgiving approaches.

I’m projecting it won’t reach $10 million for starters.

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever opening weekend prediction: $8 million

For my Heretic prediction, click here:

Heretic Box Office Prediction

Heretic Box Office Prediction

A24 is hoping audiences make some noise for Heretic when it debuts November 8th. The horror thriller comes from Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who wrote the blockbuster A Quiet Place and recently directed the megaflop 65. Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East costar as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door.

Critics opened up to Heretic upon its screening at the Toronto Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a certified fresh 95% with Metacritic at 71. Moviegoers have had plenty of scary material to feast on in 2024 and that could limit its potential. I could see a start in the $11.5 million range that Speak No Evil managed in September.

Heretic opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my The Best Christmas Pageant Ever prediction, click here:

The Best Christmas Pageant Ever Box Office Prediction

November 1-3 Box Office Predictions

Robert Zemeckis reunites with his Forrest Gump leads Tom Hanks and Robin Wright some 30 years after that Best Picture recipient with the family drama Here this weekend. My detailed prediction post on the newcomer can be accessed here:

Here Box Office Prediction

Here is likely to be the sole newbie to place in the top five. Unlike Gump, there’s no awards buzz for this. A debut in the mid single digits could mean anywhere from second to fifth.

Tom Hardy’s third and reportedly final go-round in The Last Dance had a subpar start (more on that below). With a troubling B- Cinemascore, a 60 percent plus percentage drop appears inevitable. That should mean mid or high teens for an unremarkable repeat performance in 1st place.

Holdovers Smile 2, The Wild Robot, and Conclave should fill out the rest of the high five and here’s how I have it playing out:

1. Venom: The Last Dance

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

2. Smile 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

3. The Wild Robot

Predicted Gross: $5 million

4. Here

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

5. Conclave

Predicted Gross: $4.2 million

Box Office Results (October 25-27)

As mentioned, viewers were not grooving to Venom: The Last Dance. The comic book based sequel set in Sony’s Spider-Man Universe took in $51 million. That’s under my $62.3 million take and well below 2018’s Venom ($80 million) and 2021 follow-up Let There Be Carnage at $90 million. Crowds have clearly soured on the franchise.

The news wasn’t great for Smile 2 either. The horror sequel was second with $9.5 million and that represents a 59% plummet. Its 2022 predecessor only experienced an 18% decline in weekend #2. While I didn’t think that would occur, I had this pegged at $15.6 million during its follow-up frame.

The Wild Robot was third with $6.8 million compared to my $7.5 million call. The animated hit has taken in $111 million in five weeks.

Oscar hopeful Conclave with Ralph Fiennes was fourth with a better than anticipated $6.6 million. Edward Berger’s papal succession drama blew past my $4.8 million projection.

The Andrew Garfield/Florence Pugh romance We Live in Time added nearly 2000 screens and was fifth with $4.8 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five as its total reached $11 million.

Finally, Terrifier 3 was sixth with $4.7 million (I said $5.4 million) for a robust $44 million in three weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Here Box Office Prediction

Reuniting the director, screenwriter, and two leads from Forrest Gump some three decades after the Best Picture winner’s release, Here is present in multiplexes on November 1st. The high concept family drama utilizes a stationery home camera shot spanning decades of time. Robert Zemeckis directs and Eric Roth penned the script. Tom Hanks and Robin Wright headline a cast that includes Paul Bettany, Kelly Reilly, Michelle Dockery, and Gwilym Lee.

The collection of talent mentioned above might have generated big bucks if it arrived in the decade following Mr. Gump’s global treks. I suspect this may struggle to find the older audience it seeks. There has yet to be any awards buzz and that could have helped.

While Hanks recently had an adult themed hit via A Man Called Otto, it had the benefit of being based on a well-known novel. Here‘s best hope is that viewers who do see it will tell their friends about it and that it plays into Thanksgiving. That could be a stretch as I’m forecasting this will only reach a troubling mid single digits.

Here opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million